Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:04PM Saturday November 18, 2017 9:07 AM EST (14:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:23AMMoonset 5:38PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 553 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale watch in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late this morning...then becoming sw this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft this morning...then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of rain late.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 25 to 30 kt...becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W around 10 kt in the afternoon...then becoming nw. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
ANZ005 553 Am Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres will build over the waters today and then move E tonight. Low pres approaches from the W late tonight and then tracks N of the waters on Sun.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 181058
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
558 am est Sat nov 18 2017

A weak area of high pressure across the region this morning will
move east. A strong area of low pressure will pass west of the
area Sunday afternoon, and will be followed by a colder air mass
Sunday night and Monday.

Near term through tonight
555 am update... Forecast remains on track this morning. Skies
are mostly clear everywhere except extreme northeastern
aroostook county, where a pesky stratocumulus deck remains. Have
made some adjustments to the sky cover accordingly. No other
changes were needed.

Previous discussion... Another round of wintry weather is
expected to move in this evening and overnight.

Today starts out tranquil as high pressure crosses the region. The
ridge axis moves to our east this afternoon, making way for low
pressure pushing across the great lakes. Expect increasing mid and
high clouds this afternoon ahead of the approaching low, along with
winds turning to the southeast. Western areas could see a few
sprinkles or snow flurries late this afternoon, but most locations
will be dry through the day. Highs will range from the lower and mid
30s north to around 40 downeast.

Warm air advection begins in earnest tonight as the low begins to
lift into the saint lawrence river valley, allowing a swath of
precipitation to spread from west to east overnight. The warm air
will initially spread northward by lifting over the colder air at
low levels, resulting in a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain,
mainly along and north of a dover-foxcroft to danforth line.

Temperatures will fall a bit early this evening, but then they will
rise overnight as the warm air is able to replace the cold air at
the surface. As such, the wintry mix will gradually change to just
plain rain from south to north, with all but the upper st john
valley seeing all rain by daybreak. Both snow and ice accumulations
will be light, less than 1 inch and less than 1 tenth of an inch,
respectively. Therefore, only minor travel impacts are expected.

However, if the cold air sticks around longer than currently
anticipated, the ice and snow accumulations could increase. Will
allow later shifts take a look at the incoming hi-res near term
models before making any decisions on headlines.

Short term Sunday through Monday
A strong area of low pressure near montreal Sunday morning is
expected to track to the north of the gaspe peninsula by 00z
Monday. The CWA will be in the warm sector Sunday morning and
into the first part of the afternoon with periods of rain.

Colder air begins to sweep in from the west mid to late
afternoon as the rain ends from the south. Much colder air pours
into the region Sunday night on a gusty west wind. Isolated
snow showers are possible to the north and west of the katahdin
region. Any areas of standing water will freeze Sun night, and
temperatures Monday afternoon will only recover to the mid 20s
north to the low 30s in the greater bangor region. There will be
a gusty west wind that will add to the chill. It will likely
remain mostly cloudy in the north with a few flurries and partly
sunny toward the coast.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Overall fairly quiet weather for thanksgiving week. A weak
frontal boundary could produce a rain or snow shower late tue
night or Wednesday morning, but there will not be much moisture
with this front. There remains uncertainty as to whether a wave
develops along the front to the south of the area and clips the
region with another period of rain or rain changing to snow
Wednesday night. Much of the guidance keeps this feature
offshore, but it bears watching. The 00z ecwmf now brings
precipitation to nearly all of the CWA (mostly rain, ending
perhaps as a period of snow), and the GFS keeps all of the
precipitation well south and east of the region, and the
canadian just grazes the coast. The 00z ECMWF has little
support from its ensembles members. Any potential system bears
watching, but until there is better agreement will stick with a
model consensus and nothing higher than chance pops. Colder air
filters into the region behind the front, and thanksgiving
should be a dry day with some breaks of sunshine and highs from
the upper 20s in the saint john valley to the mid to upper 30s
downeast. A tough and developing surface low may bring a chance
of snow to mainly northern areas Friday, but there is not great
model agreement, and some models would keep the area mainly dry.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Near term:VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
daylight hours, with increasing mid and high clouds through the
afternoon. Conditions will then deteriorate overnight as a mix
of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain spread from west to east
00z-12z sun. Expect all terminals to be ifr by 06z or shortly
thereafter. Bgr and bhb will remain plain rain through the
period, while the other terminals will see snow mixing with
sleet and freezing rain, then change over to plain rain from
south to north 06z-12z.

Short term: lifr to ifr in rain Sunday will improve to MVFR and
eventuallyVFR at the downeast terminals by late Sunday. Improvement
to MVFR expected at the northern terminals toward evening.

Predominately MVFR Sun night at the northern terminals with brief
ifr in any snow showers. VFR expected downeast Sun night.

PredominatelyVFR Mon and tue, but patchy MVFR ceilings possible at
times in the north.VFR expected wed, although conditions may
lower to MVFR late in the day at the downeast terminals.

Near term: the small craft advisory has been cancelled. A few
gusts to 25 kt are possible through early this morning, but a
downward trend is expected through the day as high pressure
builds over the waters. Winds will then turn to the south and
increase tonight ahead of low pressure lifting well to the
northwest of the region. SCA conditions are likely by late
tonight, with gales possible early Sunday morning.

Short term: gales likely on the waters Sunday and have issued a
gale watch. Gales possible into Monday with small craft advisory
conditions likely to persist into Tuesday.

The first measurable snowfall (0.8") of the season was observed
at caribou Friday, 11 17. It was the 4th latest measurable
snowfall on record behind only 1994, 2010, and 2016.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for

Near term... Hastings
short term... Cb
long term... Cb
aviation... Hastings cb
marine... Hastings cb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi124 min WNW 14 G 16 34°F 51°F3 ft1011.9 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi68 min NW 18 G 21 34°F 1012.9 hPa (+1.7)24°F
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi124 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 31°F 50°F1 ft1013 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW6NW5W9
1 day agoCalmCalmN4CalmCalmN3E34E33--SE4S4CalmN3N3N4NW5N5NW66NW8
2 days agoN9N8N3N6N6N10N9N7

Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
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Sat -- 04:28 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 10:39 AM EST     11.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:59 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:09 PM EST     10.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
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Sat -- 04:28 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 10:40 AM EST     11.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:03 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:37 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:59 PM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:10 PM EST     10.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.