Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:52AMSunset 8:11PM Saturday May 27, 2017 1:22 PM EDT (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 10:09PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 1222 Pm Edt Sat May 27 2017
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely... Mainly in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely...mainly in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Showers likely through the night. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt...becoming sw. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
ANZ005 1222 Pm Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Low pressure will track east of nova scotia this morning while high pres builds down from the N by afternoon. The high will remain N of the area into Sun.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 271621
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1221 pm edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the area today then slide south
of the region Saturday night. A cold front will move into the
area Sunday and stall. The front will return northward Monday as
a warm front.

Near term through tonight
Update 12:10 am: have adjusted wind, temperature, and dew point
grids based on latest observations. No other changes.

Previous discussion...

ir satl imagery showed clouds hanging tough across the cwa
early this morning W low ceilings. NAM soundings showed moisture
at teh 925mb level W drier air aloft. The latest WV imagery
supported this setup W drier air trying to work its way down
into the region from the n. The NAM showed clouds holding on
longer through mid morning and then clearing. Decided to follow
this trend for today. Surface analysis showed an inverted trof
extending back the low passing so of nova scotia. Some of the
mesoscale guidance such as the hrrr and WRF show some light rain
showers affect eastern sections such as washington county and
even back across the western sections today. The nam12 and gfs
keep the area rain-free and decided to follow this trend. Temps
will be warmer hitting the 60s region wide.

The guidance shows an upper disturbance moves across the region
tonight. This feature will be some scattered mid and high
clouds across portions of the north and west. Overall, a mostly
clear night setting up W temps dropping back into low and mid
40s. Some areas across the far N and W could see upper 30s.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
The cold front will enter northern zones Sunday morning and
reach as far south as a greenville to houlton line before
stalling. Highs south of the front will reach the lower 70s
with sunshine while upper 60s are anticipated in northern
aroostook county. The coast will be under the influence of
onshore flow with cooler temperatures. At this point, there's
not much cooling aloft and little CAPE or shear with the front.

As a result, will continue forecasting scattered showers in
northern zones and not mention thunderstorms. That said, will
have to closely monitor obs and guidance as Sunday draws closer
for any signs of convection. When the front moves northward
Sunday night into Monday, more showers can be expected. Elevated
cape is currently not showing on Sunday night, but cannot be
ruled out. The combination of a moist low level southerly flow
and increasing upper level clouds on Monday with produce a
cloudy and cooler day with the shower risk increasing in the
afternoon as an occluded front draws closer. The front will
cross the area Monday night with most precipitation in the
evening.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Unsettled weather persists Tuesday into Thursday as shortwaves
spin around an upper low in ontario. The upper low will slowly
drift towards the area later in the week and a drier west to
northwest flow is expected to give a break to the precipitation
on Friday. On Tuesday, a southerly flow will probably produce
cloudy skies and minimize chances of surface-based convection on
Tuesday afternoon evening... Although elevated instability is
possible. On Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, conditions will
be more conducive to afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Aviation 16z Saturday through Wednesday
Near term: MVFR this morning for all terminals. Conditions will
improve toVFR by later this morning into tonight.

Short term:VFR conditions are expected Sunday for all
terminals. On Sunday night, ifr CIGS are expected for bgr and
bhb while MVFR CIGS will develop further north. These cigs
continue into Monday morning, but lift toVFR by late morning.

All terminals will trend towards ifr CIGS in rain Monday night
into Tuesday morning. CIGS will increase to MVFR Tuesday
afternoon. CIGS will most likely go back towards ifr Tuesday
night.VFR returns Wednesday for all sites.

Marine
Update 9:30 am: have taken down the SCA as wind and waves now
below sca.

Near term: SCA this morning as winds have started to come back
up around 20 kts. Seas were running 6 to 8 ft. Conditions
are expected to drop below 2-0 kts W seas subsiding to 4-5 ft
this afternoon into tonight.

Short term: no significant weather is expected. A two to three
foot swell will be present much of the period. Fog is possible
Monday night.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Mignone
short term...

long term...

aviation... Mignone
marine... Mignone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi64 min ENE 7 G 8.9 49°F 48°F1009.6 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi138 min NNE 9.7 G 12 45°F 44°F5 ft1009.5 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi82 min 44°F 1010.7 hPa (+1.0)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi138 min NNE 14 G 16 50°F 49°F3 ft1009.7 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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SE10
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G8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi26 minNNE 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast53°F44°F72%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE9NE8NE9N10N7N8N6N7N6N6N7N6N5N7N6N7N8N12NE10N13
G16
NE11N10NE13
G19
1 day agoE6E7E5E4E6E9E9E12
G20
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2 days ago4S10S8S9S8SW7SW4SW3SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE3--NE3E6E6E4--E7E6

Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:13 AM EDT     13.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     -2.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:54 PM EDT     12.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 PM EDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.613.111.17.63.70.2-1.9-2.1-0.72.25.99.211.412.111.28.85.52.2-0.1-0.80.32.96.410

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:14 AM EDT     13.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:39 AM EDT     -2.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:55 PM EDT     12.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 PM EDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
13.713.311.27.83.70.2-1.9-2.2-0.72.25.99.311.512.211.38.95.52.2-0.1-0.80.32.96.410

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.