Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:45PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 7:57 PM EDT (23:57 UTC) Moonrise 5:24AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 627 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ005 627 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres will move E of the waters tonight. A cold front will cross region Thu night. High pres will build across the waters Fri into Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 182227
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
627 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north across the area tonight as high
pressure builds to the south. A cold front will cross the
state Thursday night, followed by high pressure Friday through
Saturday.

Near term through Thursday
6:15pm update: aside from some adjustments to temps and
dewpoints for current obs and trends through 00z, no major
changes were made to the forecast. Did tweak sky grids a bit to
show completely clear skies now, but possible arrival of some
clouds across the st. John valley later this evening. Though
given latest satellite imagery, it appears that cloud cover may
break up before reaching the cwa.

Of interesting note, millinocket experienced some rather strong
downsloping this afternoon, with dewpoints dropping below 20f
on gusty NW winds. Other mesonet sites near millinocket with
lakes just upwind kept dewpoints around 30f. Dewpoint at kmlt
has since recovered to around 30f as of 6pm.

Original discussion:
dry weather continues through Thursday, with warmer and breezy
conditions expected.

High pressure will continue to build south of the region this
evening. The cold front that crossed the state today will lift back
north as a warm front overnight, so while clear skies are expected,
increasing south flow will keep temperatures from plummeting too
much tonight. This trend will carry over into Thursday with highs in
the mid and upper 60s across much of the area. Another cold front
will approach from the west late in the day, increasing clouds and
possibly producing a shower or two over the far north in the
evening. Winds will become gusty out ahead of this front; gusts of
25-30 mph are possible.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Still a mostly dry term W a continuation of above normal daytime
temps.

A cold front is forecast to slide across the region Thursday
night. The 12z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show some support for
showers across the northern 1 2 of the CWA W the best forcing
across the far N and w. The 12z NAM and gem are in support of
this solution W keeping the best chances of showers across the
allagash and st. John valley. Decided to follow the midnight
crew's assessment of showing 30% pops across the aforementioned
areas and 20% for the caribou-presque isle west into northern
piscatquis county. It looks like QPF will be minimal W amounts
<0.05 inches.

It will be a breezy day on Friday W winds of 10-20 mph and some
gusts to 25 mph. Despite the breeze, daytime temps will reach
well into the 50s and 60s. The winds will let up by Friday
night as high pres starts ridging in from the sw. This will
allow for colder air to seep into the region. Overnight lows
will be the coldest of the last few nights W readings by early
Saturday morning dropping into the upper 20s across the N and w
while central and downeast areas will see low mid 30s. Pleasant
day expected on Saturday W plenty of Sun and temps a bit warmer
than Friday.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
The above normal temps continue into early next week W the
prospect of some rain by mid week.

High pres is forecast to ridge across the new england region
into Monday. Upper heights are forecast to rise during this
period which means a warming trend. Daytime temps during this
time-frame look like they could easily hit the upper 60s to
lower 70s and this could be a bit conservative. The trends in
the long range guidance has been showing a warming trend over
the last few cycles.

The large high is expected to slide to the east Tuesday into
Wednesday W a return flow setting up from the gulf of mexico.

The long range guidance including the ECMWF gfs and canadian
global showing a slow moving frontal system moving east across
the ohio valley W a series of lows moving up along the front
bringing rain to the northeastern united states. This front
appears to pull moisture northward from the gulf of mexico and
the atlantic ocean. This could lead to some decent rainfall for
the northern new england region. This would be some needed
rainfall for the region. This is still 6 to 7 days out and there
is still plenty of time to assess this situation.

Aviation 22z Wednesday through Monday
Near term:VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. Winds will abate and turn to the south tonight, then
increase again on Thursday; south winds of 10 to 15 kt with
gusts to 25 kt are expected.

Short term: it looks likeVFR right into the weekend W high
pres moving in from the sw. One caveat to this will be Thursday
night across the far northern terminals such as kcar, kpqi and
kfve for CIGS to briefly drop to MVFR as a cold front slides
across the region.

Marine
Near term: a small craft advisory has been issued for Thursday
afternoon for the outer waters. South winds will increase through
the day as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Gusts of
25-30 kt are expected by late afternoon, along with seas
building to 5 to 7 feet.

Short term: winds seas look like they will stay up in the sca
range into early Friday morning. Winds are forecast to drop off
below 20 kts by Friday as winds go nw. Seas could be tricky as
the swan guidance wants to keep seas up around 6 ft especially
out over the outer zones for about another 6 hrs. Attm, decided
to carry the SCA out through 09z(5am) Friday morning to cover
for a delay in the conditions dropping off. Conditions will
improve during the day on Friday continuing right into the
weekend W no headlines expected.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Thursday to 5 am edt Friday for
anz050-051.

Near term... Hastings kredensor
short term... Hewitt
long term... Hewitt
aviation... Hastings kredensor hewitt
marine... Hastings kredensor hewitt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi40 min W 7 G 8.9 61°F 55°F1022.8 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi114 min SW 9.7 G 12 57°F 54°F4 ft1021.8 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi58 min SW 15 G 15 56°F 1023.3 hPa (+1.7)52°F
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi114 min SW 12 G 14 58°F 56°F2 ft1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N15
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W16
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi62 minSW 610.00 miFair58°F37°F46%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW7SW8SW7
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1 day agoNW9
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N6N7NW8NW4NW4N5N3NW4CalmNW3CalmCalm44W8W96NW7CalmSW6SW9SW9SW7
2 days agoSW18
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Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:28 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:43 AM EDT     11.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:05 PM EDT     11.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.56.73.61.2-0.2-0.11.44.17.29.711.311.610.584.920.2-0.40.52.95.98.710.711.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:28 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:44 AM EDT     11.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:53 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:06 PM EDT     11.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.66.83.71.2-0.2-0.11.44.27.29.811.411.710.68.14.92.10.2-0.40.52.95.98.810.811.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.