Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 4:55AMSunset 8:08PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 9:32 AM EDT (13:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:28AMMoonset 6:37PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 908 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
Today..Light and variable winds...becoming se around 5 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening... Then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming s. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ005 908 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres will be over the waters today then move into the maritimes on Thu. Low pres will approach Thu night and track through the gulf of maine on Fri.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 241308
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
908 am edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build north of the area through Thursday.

Low pressure will approach from the southwest Thursday afternoon
and track across the gulf of maine on Friday.

Near term through tonight
9:10 am update: have adjusted temperature and dew point. No
other changes.

Weak high pressure across the area will bring a partly to mostly
sunny sky across the north today while downeast areas stay
partly to mostly cloudy. A small area of low pressure lifting
east from a large upper trough centered over the midwest will
track to our south this afternoon. A bit of moisture north of
that low may stray into southwestern areas this afternoon
bringing more cloudiness and a chance for a light showers.

Otherwise, today will be dry across the region. The dry weather
will persist tonight as high pressure consolidating north of
the maritimes influences our weather. High temperatures today
will generally be in the low 70s across the area with lows
tonight in the upper 40s to near 50.

Short term Thursday through Friday
Some rain expected later Thursday night into Friday.

High pres to the north will provide dry air down into the CWA on
Thursday holding off the rain from the low apchg from the south.

Mdl sounding including the NAM and GFS confirm this to be the
case W mid and high level moisture coming into the area on
Thursday. The soundings also show an ese flow up through 700mbs
which will aid in moistening the llvls by late in the day
Thursday into Thursday night. Rain is forecast to move into
southern areas Thursday night as low pres lifts up into southern
new england. As the low lifts nne into Friday, rain will
overspread the rest of the region W periods of heavy as the
upper flow becomes difluent. Confidence was high enough to ramp
pops up to 80-90% by Friday. The latest runs of the ECMWF canadian
global and GFS show the system filling as it gets captured by
the upper low W rain beginning to wind down from SW to NE by
Friday afternoon. QPF is a blend of the guidance W the nerfc's
data including. This yields rainfall totals from this event
close to an inch across central and downeast areas while
northern areas see 0.25-0.50 inches. This is subject to change
as new guidance arrives later today.

The warmest of the days will come Thursday as daytime
temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s away
from the coast. The ese wind will keep readings lower along the
coast. Friday will feature temps running well below normal for
late may W readings only topping out in the 50s due to the
expected rain.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Drying out Friday night and continuing through Sunday. Another
shot of rain possible Monday into Tuesday.

The low is forecast to move quickly away from the region Friday
night W rain coming to an end and some clearing expected.

Saturday into Sunday look to remain dry and close to seasonal
norms as high pres builds across the region. The ecwmf and
canadian global show the high to the N staying anchored in
right through the weekend W showers around the periphery of
northern and western maine. The GFS wants to bring to some
showers across northern areas W a warm front W some measurable
rainfall. Attm, confidence is low and decided to keep pops 20%
or less.

As stated above, another round of rain expected Monday and
possibly continuing into Tuesday as a large low pres system
moves across the great lakes region. The latest runs of the
long range guidance suggest this system to hang around into mid
week W unsettle weather. There is still plenty of time to
assess this possible event.

Aviation 13z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term:VFR conditions are expected across the area today and
tonight along with light winds.

Short term:VFR into Thursday evening for all terminals. Kbgr
and kbhb will see conditions deteriorate to MVFR and then ifr
Thursday night into Friday. Northern terminals will hang on to
vfr into early Friday morning. Conditions however will
deteriorate to MVFR ifr across the northern terminals by midday
Friday W rain. Conditions are forecast to improve slightly to
MVFR late in the day on Friday for all terminals including kbgr
and kbhb. Conditions look like they will improve toVFR by
Saturday.

Marine
Near term: winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA today
and tonight.

Short term: winds and seas will gradually increase Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. The winds will be out of the ese
which will allow seas to build. Thinking is that a small craft
advisory would most likely be needed on Thursday into early
Friday especially for seas. Winds and seas are expected to drop
back Friday night into Saturday as the low pulls away and winds
go offshore.

High astronomical tides expected Thursday night into early
Friday. Wave guidance is showing the potential for a surge of
1.0 foot or so Thursday night and again Friday W seas of 5-7 ft.

Water levels could get close but attm, the local wave model
keeps readings below high water levels. The daycrew can assess
this further today.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Mignone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi45 min Calm G 1 52°F 48°F1008.8 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi89 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 47°F 47°F2 ft1009.1 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi33 min 48°F 1009.9 hPa (+0.7)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi89 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 49°F 46°F1 ft1009.2 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair55°F52°F90%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3444S6Calm--SW10S11SW8S6SW7S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day ago6S8S7S8SW9SW11SW12SW12S12S9SW12S5S9S9S8--S7S5Calm--CalmCalmE3NE3
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NW4SW8SW7S6CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--4

Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
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Wed -- 04:00 AM EDT     -1.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:12 AM EDT     11.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:15 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:30 PM EDT     13.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.65.32.1-0.2-1-0.31.958.210.511.611.29.46.53.30.7-0.5-0.11.84.98.311.212.812.8

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:00 AM EDT     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:13 AM EDT     11.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:15 PM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:31 PM EDT     13.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.75.42.1-0.2-1-0.31.958.210.611.711.39.56.63.40.7-0.5-0.11.84.98.411.312.913

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.