Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:32PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 1:42 PM EST (18:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:46PMMoonset 9:50AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 1216 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.storm watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain early, then a chance of rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SW winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Areas of fog in the evening. Rain, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow through the night. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers through the day, then rain likely in the evening. Snow likely through the night. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ005 1216 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Low pressure will approach from the west today and move to the north of the area tonight. SEcondary low pressure will form over the state on Thu and track northeast into the maritimes Thu night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 231716
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1216 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will approach today and lift west of the area
tonight. A secondary low will form over the area Thursday and
continue northeast in the maritimes Thursday night.

Near term through tonight
Update 12:15 pm: have adjusted pops and weather grids higher in
the north. Also have adjusted wind, temperature, and dew point.

No other changes.

Low pressure will approach from the west today as high pressure
slides southeast of the area into the open atlantic. The
combination of the approaching low and high pressure to our
southeast will result in an increasing south wind pushing warmer
air north. Snow will spread into the area today then change to
sleet, freezing rain, then plain rain from south to north this
afternoon through tonight. The ground has been very chilled from
recent cold weather. As a result, rain and snowmelt will result
in icy conditions through tonight. Snowfall before the
changeover today will generally amount to 2 to 4 inches over the
north with less downeast. As the low lifts to our north on
Thursday, secondary low pressure will develop over the area. A
strong low level southerly jet across the downeast region will
bring strong winds Thursday into Thursday evening, especially
along the coast and over the higher ridge. A high wind watch has
been issued downeast Thursday into Thursday evening. The
warmer, moist air over the cold ground and snow cover will also
likely result in areas of fog late tonight through Thursday.

Strong south winds, building seas and astronomical high tides on
Thursday will likely result in some coastal flooding and
splashover at the time of high tide Thursday which is around 1
pm along the downeast coast. The new low will lift northeast of
the region late Thursday pulling a cold front into the area and
ending the rain.

Short term Thursday through Friday
Colder air is forecast to sweep into the region Thursday evening
as low pres exits through the maritimes dragging a cold front
across the state. Temps will start to drop off during teh
evening W remaining rainfall changing to period of snow across
the western areas during the early evening and then across the
eastern areas near or just after midnight. Some minor
accumulation is expected especially across the st. John valley,
allagash and baxter state park region. A quick freeze up
expected and any standing water will refreeze. This will lead to
icy roads later at night into Friday morning. Gusty wnw winds
could help alleviate this some W some drying. Used a blend of
the nam GFS and ecwmf for timing and placement. Friday will
start out partly sunny W increasing clouds in the afternoon.

Temps are expected to be above normal for late january, but they
will fall back later in the day as an arctic front slides into
the region. Snow showers are expected W the front and there is
some potential for a few snow squalls. Steep lapse rates from
0-3 km of 8+ c km and CAPE of 30+ joules are noted by the nam
and gfs. The snow squall parameter does show the potential in
some areas across the north and west but not too organized.

Attm, decided on 40% pops due to thee activity not being very
organized. There is still time to assess this potential. Snow
shower activity drops off by late Friday evening as the front
swings through. Temps will take a plunge W readings hitting
below 0f across the northern 1 2 of the cwa, while central and
downeast areas are forecast be in the single numbers by Saturday
morning.

Saturday looks like it will start out partly sunny as sfc high
pres slides across the region. Temps are expected to be below
normal. Both the ECMWF and GFS advertise the potential for a
norlun type feature trying to set up W an inverted trof along
the eastern 3rd of the cwa. Clouds increase in the afternoon
w the chance for some snow. The challenge comes W placement and
snowfall amounts Saturday night into Sunday. More on this in the
long term section below.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Active pattern looks to be in the works through this term.

The 00z ECMWF gfs show the norlun feature setting up across the
eastern 3rd of the CWA and bring some snow across the maine new
brunswick border Saturday night. A system apchg from the great
lakes region on Sunday linking up W the norlun feature, bringing
a measurable snowfall to the region into Monday. The ECMWF is
not as potent as the GFS W this system. The GFS is advertising a
significant snow event while the ECMWF is much lighter W the
snowfall. The ECMWF looks like it wants to treat the two systems
separately showing some drier air working in on Sunday cutting
off significant moisture transport. Since we are talking day 5
into 6, decided on a blend of the two guidance and brought 60%
pops for snow across the eastern 1 2 of the CWA later Sunday
into Monday and showed 40-50% elsewhere.

Aviation 17z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term:VFR conditions early this morning will lower to ifr
today in lower clouds and snow. Ifr to lifr conditions in low
clouds and snow, fog and rain will persist tonight through
Thursday. Southerly winds shear is likely from late tonight
through Thursday, especially downeast. Fog will form late
tonight into Thursday and may be dense at times throughout the
region.

Short term: ifr MVFR Thursday evening WVFR for kbgr and kbhb
later Thursday night into Friday. MVFR for the northern
terminals later Thursday night W improvement Friday morning.

MVFR conditions look like they return later Friday afternoon
into Friday evening W some snow showers across the northern
terminals whileVFR should hold for kbgr and kbhb. There could
be a brief period of MVFR for kbgr Friday evening.VFR looks to
set up for all the terminals on Saturday.

Marine
Near term: winds will be light today as high pressure moves
over the waters. Winds will increase from the south tonight and
likely reach storm on Thursday. Seas will build to 12 to 14 ft
in response to the south winds. Coastal splashover and some
tidal flooding is possible at the time of high tide around 1 pm
Thursday afternoon.

Short term: wnw winds will set up behind the cold front Thursday
night W gusts to 25 kt, especially over the outer waters.

Despite the offshore winds, wave heights are expected to stay
well above 6 ft right into early Saturday. Conditions look like
they improve Saturday afternoon into early Sunday W wave
heights dropping below 6 ft and winds less than 20 kts.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for mez001>006-
010.

Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for mez011-
015>017-031-032.

High wind watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for mez016-017-029-030.

Marine... Storm watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
anz050>052.

Near term... Mignone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi49 min 37°F 33°F1020.8 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi99 min SSW 25 G 31 36°F 39°F7 ft1022.4 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi43 min S 32 G 34 37°F 1021.1 hPa (-5.1)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi99 min SSW 23 G 29 36°F 36°F5 ft

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi47 minSSW 18 G 2310.00 miOvercast and Breezy36°F27°F70%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8
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NW6NW6W7W8NW4NW3W4NW5CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSE3S16
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Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
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Wed -- 12:02 AM EST     11.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:01 AM EST     -1.13 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:49 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:16 PM EST     13.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:40 PM EST     -2.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.7118.85.62.2-0.2-1.1-0.325.59.111.813.112.710.77.53.60.2-1.8-2.1-0.72.15.79

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:03 AM EST     11.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:01 AM EST     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:49 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 12:17 PM EST     13.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:40 PM EST     -2.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.811.18.95.72.3-0.2-1.1-0.325.59.111.913.212.810.97.63.70.2-1.8-2.1-0.72.15.79

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.