Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 6:52PM Saturday March 23, 2019 10:54 AM EDT (14:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:08PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 954 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of rain and snow late this morning, then a slight chance of rain early this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw. Seas 1 foot or less.
ANZ005 954 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Low pres will exit across the maritimes today. A cold front will cross the waters Sun night. High pres will build across the region later Mon into Wed.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 231447
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1047 am edt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will exit across the maritimes this afternoon.

A strong cold front will cross the region Sunday afternoon and
exit the downeast coast Sunday evening. High pressure will build
across the region early next week.

Near term through tonight
Update...

surface upper level low pressure will exit across the maritimes
this afternoon. Areas of rain snow wrapping around the low are
still rotating across the forecast area. However, the rain snow
will taper to rain snow showers then diminish through the
afternoon. Any additional snow accumulations will be less than
an inch, mostly across the north and mountains. The pressure
gradient between the exiting low and high pressure to the
southwest, along with diurnal mixing, will support wind gusts of
35 to 40 mph this afternoon. High temperatures will range from
the mid to upper 30s north, to the lower 40s downeast. Have
updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with
afternoon temperatures, clouds and shower chances.

Previous discussion...

high pressure gradually builds in late this afternoon with
moclr skies expected tonight. Winds wl rmn gusty thru the ovrngt
hrs but expect mins wl dip into the 20s acrs most of the area.

Cannot rule out the north woods dipping into the teens by sun
morning.

Short term Sunday through Monday
An arctic cold front to the west of the saint lawrence river at 12z
sun will push into the saint john valley by around or shortly after
midday and will sweep off the down east coast during the evening.

The cold front will have some decent lift and steep low level lapse
rates along with 25 to 30 knot wind in the well mixed low levels.

The btv snow squall parameter does indicate the potential for some
squalls during the afternoon. Confidence is high that there will be
some decent snow showers and a few heavier gusty squalls are
possible, especially north of baxter state park. As the front
pushes south into the down east region during the evening
conditions are less favorable for squalls, but scattered snow
showers are possible. Did make some tweaks to increase the
pops to likely across about the northern 1 4 to 1 3 of the cwa,
and by late tomorrow night or early Sunday morning we may want
to consider issuing a heads up sps if conditions still look
favorable for squalls and or heavy snow showers. Much colder
air follows behind the front Sun night and mon. A weak
disturbance in the low height flow may combine with strong late
march heating to generate some afternoon snow showers Mon in
the north and across the mountains. Highs will be unseasonably
cold with low to mid 20s north to the low to mid 30s down east.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Continued cold for Mon night through Tue night. A surface high over
the great lakes Mon night will keep a gradient across the region,
and most areas will likely keep at least a light breeze most of the
night. The air mass is cold enough that even with a light wind some
of the colder northwest valleys could get a little below zero, but
there also may be some pockets of stratocu that could potentially
limit the cooling. Tue will be another cold day with 20s north
and 30s down east. The surface high builds into the region tue
night with the wind to likely become calm in the valleys.

Although the air mass starts to warm a bit aloft, there will
likely be some very strong surface based inversions that form,
and the northwest valleys could get down to 10 below, with 5
below to 5 above likely common north with 5 to 15 above down
east. The high begins to slowly retreat with weak return flow to
develop wed, and once the sfc inversions break temperatures
will rise back to more seasonable levels in the afternoon.

Continued warming of the air mass with SW flow Thu into Fri with
temperatures to likely get back to slightly above average
levels late in the week. Most of the models have backed off on
the idea of a little weak overunning precipitation late in the
week, with perhaps a better chance by next weekend.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Near term: occasional MVFR conditions will persist across the
north and mountains this afternoon. Occasional MVFR conditions
are possible downeast early this afternoon. Otherwise,VFR
conditions are expected downeast this afternoon. Occasional
MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains
early tonight. Otherwise,VFR conditions are expected across the
region tonight. Northwest winds will gust up to 35 to 40 mph
this afternoon into the evening.

Short term:VFR Sun morning with brief lifr to ifr in snow showers
and possible squalls at the aroostook county terminals Sun afternoon
and early evening. Conditions may briefly lower to ifr to MVFR
at the down east terminals Sun evening in scattered snow
showers.VFR expected most of the time Mon through wed, but with
occasional MVFR at the northern terminals Mon afternoon in
stratocu.

Marine
Near term: a gale warning remains in effect until 7 pm this
evening. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected
later this evening through the overnight hours. Visibilities
could be reduced in any rain snow through early afternoon.

Short term: a small craft advisory will likely be required
Sunday with conditions to ease into Sunday night to below sca
levels. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels mon
through wed.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 7 pm edt this evening for anz050>052.

Near term... Norcross farrar
short term... Cb
long term... Cb
aviation... Norcross cb
marine... Norcross cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi36 min 38°F 35°F988.5 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi110 min NW 14 G 18 37°F 37°F10 ft986.7 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi54 min W 21 G 23 37°F 988.8 hPa (+4.2)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi110 min NW 19 G 25 38°F 35°F987.7 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi58 minNW 6 G 1410.00 miOvercast38°F33°F83%989.1 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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SW13S15S9S8S7--SE5E5E3CalmE6NE5E4E7NE8NE7N6NE8NE12
2 days ago--S11S14S17S14S16S14S12S8S8SW7S5SW3S4S4CalmSW6S8S7S6SW8S11SW10S14

Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:10 AM EDT     12.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     -1.84 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:38 PM EDT     12.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     -1.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.612.712.2106.62.9-0.1-1.7-1.50.43.67.210.312.112.310.98.14.51.3-0.8-1.20.12.86.3

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:11 AM EDT     12.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM EDT     -1.85 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:39 PM EDT     12.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     -1.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.712.812.310.16.72.9-0.1-1.7-1.50.43.67.310.312.212.4118.24.61.3-0.8-1.20.12.86.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.