Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ellsworth, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 3:56PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:04 AM EST (09:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:20PMMoonset 10:53PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 356 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw around 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas around 1 foot.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 1 foot or less, then 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of snow in the morning. A chance of rain. A chance of snow through the night.
ANZ005 356 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres builds across the waters today, then exits across the maritimes Fri. A cold front will approach Fri night then cross the waters early Sat. High pres will build across the region later Sat through Sun.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ellsworth, ME
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location: 44.5, -68.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 130541
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1241 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will cross the region today then exit
across the maritimes Friday. A cold front will cross the region
Friday night through early Saturday.

Near term through Thursday
Update...

arctic high pressure will build across the region overnight
with clear skies and cold temperatures. Overnight low
temperatures will generally range from 10 to 25 below zero
across northern areas, to the single digits below zero interior
downeast with single digits above and below zero along the
downeast coast. Locally colder readings are possible. Have
updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with
overnight temperatures. Have extended the small craft advisory
for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal
waters, through 4 am.

Previous discussion...

hipres wl slide offshore thru the day thur allowing sfc winds
to back twd the southwest. Highs tomorrow wl lkly be warmer than
tda with highs near 20 acrs the north and m20s nr 30 ovr
downeast. Skies wl be sunny throughout the day with light
westerly winds expected everywhere.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Forecast confidence continues to increase for this period with
stronger ensemble and deterministic model support for most of
the rain with the Friday night into Saturday coastal wave
staying well south of the region as the northern stream
shortwave will be the dominate mid-level features. On Friday the
strong SW return flow still looks to be on par which will warm
the boundary layer to above freezing for the penobscot valley
region and downeast with even far northern maine getting close
to the freezing point. This will feel nice after the past week
cold snap. Mid and high clouds will quickly invade the region by
Friday afternoon as the 500mb shortwave begins to approach from
quebec province. With the combination of warm air advection
from the SW and cloud cover, temperatures aren't expected to
fall off much Friday night, have trended temperatures up due to
this. Still low confidence in the QPF for Friday night into
Saturday morning with the weak cold front pushing through, but
the ensemble mean is only around .10" across the north with .05"
for downeast, thus nothing significant. Precip type will be
difficult, but based on the warming low levels and 925mb temps
surging well above freezing across downeast and bangor region
just went with a rain snow mix and kept it all snow across the
north with thermal profiles just cold enough to support some wet
snow. Over accumulations across the north look very light maybe
an inch at worst at this time. During the day on Saturday the
cold front pushes through the area with cold air advection all
day during the day, temperature guidance continues to trend down
on Saturday with morning temperatures possible being the
warmest readings of the day. It will be mostly dry with a few
flurries for the northwoods.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A high pressure ridge will be extended across the region at the
start of the period through Monday evening. A low and
associated front will track east across the gulf of maine waters
bringing chance for some snowshowers to the downeast coast
Monday evening. The ridge will build back across the region and
remain through Wednesday evening. A low moving SE out of the
hudson bay region will begin to influence NW maine by the end of
the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the ECMWF solution. Used
nawave4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Near term:VFR conditions are expected across the region
overnight through Thursday. There could be some temporary
restrictions to visibility overnight with inversions which could
trap smoke in valleys.

Short term: no significant aviation impacts expected at this
time Friday through the weekend. There could be some MVFR cigs
Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak cold front pushes
through the area. Clouds will be thinning by late Saturday
morning, with clearing expected for kbhb and kbgr during the
day. High pressure will dominate the area Sunday with no impacts
expected.

Marine
Near term: have extended the small craft advisory for much of
the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters,
through 4 am. Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels on all the waters Thursday.

Short term: winds could begin to approach SCA conditions on
Friday out ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front will
push off the waters by Saturday morning with a wind shift to the
nw with winds once again approaching SCA conditions.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for anz050-051.

Near term... Norcross farrar
short term... Dumont
long term... Norton
aviation... Norcross dumont
marine... Norcross dumont


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 14 mi35 min NNW 12 G 14 12°F 36°F1030.1 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 32 mi61 min N 21 G 27 20°F 46°F4 ft1028.5 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 40 mi125 min N 20 G 23 18°F 1028.4 hPa (+2.4)
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 43 mi61 min NNE 14 G 18 19°F 42°F1 ft1029.2 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME4 mi69 minNW 310.00 miFair5°F0°F79%1030.6 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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N8N6N4N6NW6NW7N6NW6N6N4NW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3E5SE5S5S4E3E4E5E5NE4N7N8N9N6N6N8N13N10
2 days agoNW4NW4NW3N5N7N8N8N6NW9N10
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N5NW6--NW46N3NW4W5W3W3NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Union River, Maine
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Union River
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:46 AM EST     9.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM EST     1.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:48 PM EST     10.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:13 PM EST     0.95 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.97.99.19.48.77.25.13.22.11.92.74.36.48.49.7109.47.95.73.41.711.22.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Desert Narrows, Maine
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Mount Desert Narrows
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:47 AM EST     9.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:39 AM EST     1.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:49 PM EST     10.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:13 PM EST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.989.29.58.87.35.23.32.11.92.74.36.48.59.810.19.585.83.41.711.22.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.