Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:49PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:07 PM EDT (23:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:25AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 354 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Rain and snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Rain and snow. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the morning. Snow likely in the morning. Rain likely. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A chance of rain early in the evening. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then backing to the northwest late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming east 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain and snow after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ363 Expires:201703300815;;275726 FZUS63 KDTX 291954 GLFLH OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE HURON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 354 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OFF SHORE ON LAKE HURON WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE...29.60 INCHES...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM MO INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING THE LIKELY CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE...30.30 INCHES... WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY. PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 29.80 INCHES THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE FROM TX MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LHZ362-363-300815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 291946
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
346 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Discussion
Storm system will bring a wet, cold, windy, raw Thursday
across the area. Surface and closed 500mb lows over the kansas-
oklahoma border will slowly head northeastward to about eastern lake
erie by Friday evening. Strong surge of moisture ahead of this
system will bring soaking rain for the area starting tonight through
most of Friday. First shot of precipitation will occur on a
narrow fgen band modeled to develop tonight anywhere from the m59
corridor as indicated by the rap to the i69 corridor shown by the
gfs to slightly further north and a tad later by the nam. Current
satellite and radar trends seem to point more towards the saginaw
valley. The forecast problem with any precip from this will be type.

As precip begins to develop lower levels will start off above
freezing which would allow any precip to reach surface as rain. But
with very dry low levels from cool dry northeast flow advecting in,
evaporative cooling and wet bulbing will shift profiles quickly to
right along or slightly below the 0c line mainly north of the m59
corridor. This will lead to a change to snow or rain/snow later
tonight. QPF should be on the light side less then two tenths. Any
snow will be wet with ratios around 8 to 1 leading to any
accumulations less then an inch as surface temps will remain in the
low to mid 30s.

More widespread and heavier overrunning rain will spread across the
entire area Thursday as surface warm front lifts to about the ohio
border. Warming in the lower levels will slowly push rain/snow line
northward but may not clear northern portions of midland, bay and
huron counties as low level flow will remain more cooler east
northeast. This will leave the possibility of more light
accumulations, mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. Elsewhere,
surface gradient will tighten as surface low deepens slightly
leading to a brisk and gusty easterly flow keeping highs only in
the upper 30s north to mid 40s far south. Periods of rain will
continue Thursday night through Friday before exiting early Friday
night. There will also be a chance for convection Thursday
afternoon through Friday morning along and south of the elevated
warm front which should stall along the i69 corridor. Instability
will increases as low level warm moist advection combined with
steepening mid level lapse rates with the approaching 500mb low.

Highs Friday will be more mild in the low to mid 50s from the
detroit area south as the surface low tracks right overhead, to the
40s north.

Saturday looks dry with high temps into the low to mid 50's for the
afternoon hours. By Sunday afternoon, low pressure over the southern
plain states will have pushed NE into the ohio valley. This will
bring in weak chances for rain Sunday afternoon. Chances for rain
are expected to significantly increase for Tuesday; especially over
the southern portions of the cwa. At least some chance of rain will
linger through the week as low tracks over lake erie and into the
new england states. Temperatures remain mild through the period.

Marine
The central great lakes will remain situated between high pressure
positioned to the northeast and approaching low pressure lifting
from the central plains into the ohio valley through the end of the
week. The resulting tight gradient will maintain an extended period
of strong winds with an east to northeast component. Easterly
winds strengthen beginning Thursday under weakly unstable
conditions. Strongest winds Thursday night through Friday morning,
where a period of gusts to near gales will be possible over central
and northern sections of lake huron. Marginal conditions will
preclude issuance of a gale watch at this time. Building wave
heights under this flow will eventually result in small craft level
conditions for the entire lake huron nearshore waters and outer
saginaw bay late Thursday and Thursday night. These conditions will
likely persist through Friday over most locations given continued
northeast flow. Winds and subsequent waves heights will ease as the
the low exits eastward Friday night.

Hydrology
Multiple rounds of precipitation will lift across southeast michigan
Thursday through Friday as low pressure slowly advances toward the
region. Precipitation will arrive on Thursday along a lead warm
front. The onset of precipitation Thursday morning will fall as
mainly rain, but a period of accumulating snow will be possible
across the northern saginaw and thumb region. Additional rainfall
will then occur on Friday as the main low pressure system lifts
across the eastern great lakes. Rainfall amounts from three
quarters of an inch to one inch remain forecast over the two-day
period. These amounts spread over two days should result in just
minor rises to area rivers and streams.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1215 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
aviation...

high pressure anchored north of the region will maintain dry low
level conditions under modest northeast flow through the evening.

General increase in high cloudiness through this time, but skies
will largely remain clear below 10 kft. A thickening and lowering
mid level cloud tonight in advance of a deeper plume of moisture.

There is the potential for a period of frontal forcing to
development late tonight in the vicinity of mbs, which may allow for
a period of very light snow. Otherwise, arrival of greater low
level moisture will bring an increasing chance for rain with a
steady lowering of ceiling on Thursday. Easterly winds will
increase Thursday, gusting 20 to 25 knots by midday.

For dtw... Existing 7-9 kt northeast wind holds through early
evening, before easing tonight. Clear skies across the lowest
5000 ft through tonight.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft late Thursday morning, medium
Thursday afternoon.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 5 pm Thursday to 10 am edt Friday for
lhz443.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm Thursday to 4 am edt Saturday for
lhz421-441-442.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drc/de
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 41 mi76 min N 2.9 37°F 1028.2 hPa31°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi49 min N 9.9 G 13 35°F 1026.2 hPa30°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi87 min NE 5.1 G 11 37°F 1027.8 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi76 minN 3 mi37°F30°F79%1028.2 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7CalmNW3W3CalmW3W3W4W4W3W5W5NW5NW8NW9N4NE9NE11NE8N9N6N6N3N12
1 day agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4N4N6N4N5N8N93N5N4N9N7NW4NW7N4N4N5
2 days agoSE7S7S6SE5SE4S3CalmCalmSW4SW3SW5W3NW5NW5--SW6W10W8W116W4CalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.