Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 9:14PM Friday June 23, 2017 9:59 AM EDT (13:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:32AMMoonset 7:47PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 400 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable. Showers with Thunderstorms likely early in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and early afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late in the morning...then veering to the west 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon backing to the west late in the evening. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers until late afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ363 Expires:201706232000;;678332 FZUS63 KDTX 230800 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure...averaging 29.60 inches...will track across the central Great Lakes today. This will pull a cold front through the area, ushering in quieter weather late today and tonight. Broad low pressure will then linger over the Great Lakes through the weekend, providing unseasonably cool and slightly unsettled weather. LHZ362-363-232000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231007
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
607 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Aviation
Widespread ifr to MVFR ceilings will start the TAF period as
moisture continues to surge northward into michigan and as a cold
front over central michigan gradually sinks southward. Greatest
coverage of ifr ceilings should be near detroit-area terminals where
deeper moisture will exist to start the day. Rain and thunderstorms
extending from central michigan back through wisconsin will slide
through the terminals through about 15-17z, with heavy rainfall
possibly restricting visibility to as low as 1 2sm. Showers tstorms
will exit the area during the afternoon, with lingering moisture and
daytime heating then allowing CU field to form by late afternoon.

These lower clouds should then diminish this evening.

For dtw... Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm will impact
the area through about 13z, before heavier activity and a better
chance for thunderstorms arrives ahead of a cold front between 13-
16z. Ifr ceilings early this morning will rise to MVFR and thenVFR
by afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for thunderstorms in the 13-16z window.

* high confidence in ceilings AOB 5kft this morning. Medium during
the late afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 357 am edt Fri jun 23 2017
discussion...

deep layer moisture of tropical origin firmly entrenched across
southeast michigan early this morning. Moistening process augmented
by the earlier strong northward expansion of high mid-level theta-e
content. This theta-e gradient providing the southern flank of a
well defined convergence axis also marked by the slow southeastward
sag of an elongated frontal boundary that now stretches from saginaw
bay to southern wisconsin. Forced ascent anchored on this frontal
slope maintaining a heavy concentration of convection throughout
this corridor. Advancement of the front into a moisture laden
resident airmass should subsequently support a shift of convective
activity into southeast michigan through the mid-late morning hours.

Instability limited by both the earlier convective overturning and
an arrival near the nocturnal minimum, so attaining greater
convective organization will be a struggle. Given precipitable
water values near 2 inches, heavy rainfall will remain the primary
issue.

Actual frontal passage will lag the exit of the deepest moisture
axis by several hours. This will leave a short window early this
afternoon for some degree of pre-frontal airmass recovery, mainly
southeast of a howell to port huron line as dewpoints hover in the
upper 60s. Assuming sufficient instability emerges, renewed
development of shallow line of convection could yield a quick shot
of rain thunder for a few locales before the front sweeps southeast.

Highs today in the vicinity of 80 degrees most locations. Turning
notably drier from northwest to southeast with the frontal passage,
as dewpoints eventually drop into the 50s all locations by this
evening.

Gradual reduction in mid level heights through the weekend period,
as broad upper troughing expands over the region. This will leave
weekend conditions defined as cooler and less humid. Steady
downward spiral of the thermal structure throughout the weekend,
with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out in the middle single digits
by Sunday. This will leave afternoon temperatures in the low-mid
70s Saturday, then potentially struggle to even reach 70f by Sunday
depending on cloud cover . The arrival of a weak pertubation timed
coincident with peak heating may support isolated to scattered
coverage of showers rumble of thunder? Saturday afternoon. The
corridor along and north of i-69 will be more favorably positioned
to witness some development. A stronger wave pivots across
north central lower mi Saturday night into Sunday morning. Given
the lack of a diurnal contribution to augment any uptick in forcing,
precipitation potential appears slim during this time.

Marine...

showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact much of the area
early today ahead of a cold front. Quieter weather is then expected
late today and tonight. West to northwest flow will develop behind
the front this afternoon and evening, and persist through the
weekend as broad low pressure remains in place over the great lakes.

Speeds are expected to remain modest, but gusts may just top 20
knots over western lake erie both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Hydrology...

heavy rainfall that occurred from late yesterday evening through
early this morning has caused widespread flooding across midland
county, and across a portion of bay and huron counties. This
flooding will be aggravated by additional rainfall through about
8am, as an additional one to two inches of rain falls. For the
remainder of southeast michigan, showers and thunderstorms over
central michigan will slide southward through the morning and early
afternoon as a cold front drops through the area. Less training of
storms is expected than what occurred over central michigan
overnight. Rainfall may be heavy at times, however, with rainfall
exceeding one inch in some areas. Dry weather is expected late today
and tonight.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Hlo
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Hlo
hydrology... .Hlo
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45008 - S HURON 43NM East of Oscoda, MI 16 mi70 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 61°F 57°F1 ft1002.6 hPa (-0.6)
KP58 41 mi69 min 4.1 67°F 1000.8 hPa65°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi42 min S 8.9 G 12 66°F 1002.1 hPa65°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi80 min SW 6 G 9.9 65°F 1002.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi69 minVar 4 mi67°F64°F93%1000.8 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S9S76SW85NE63543CalmS3SW7S356SW45SW63S64Calm
1 day agoNW6NE3NE5NE5E7E11E13E10SE9SE9SE6S7S66S433Calm4--S8S11
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2 days agoW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.