Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:40PM Saturday March 23, 2019 10:50 AM EDT (14:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 8:13AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Expires:201903232015;;797456 Fzus63 Kdtx 231345 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 945 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure, 30.40 inches, centered over indiana this morning will extend across the upper ohio valley today. This high will drift off the coast of the carolinas on Sunday while another high pressure system, 30.50 inches, builds into northern ontario. This high will drive a cold front south across lake huron on Sunday before pushing into the ohio valley Sunday night. This high will then expand across the great lakes region Monday into Tuesday. Lhz362-363-462-232015- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- 945 am edt Sat mar 23 2019
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots backing to the southwest late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the northeast early in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon...then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming south 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet until early morning.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
LHZ363


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231132
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
732 am edt Sat mar 23 2019

Aviation
Differential 1000-500mb height rises will force the surface high
pressure ridge to build across southeast michigan today. An
extremely dry air mass coupled with strong static stability between
4.0 and 12.0 kft agl will ensure clear skies.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 417 am edt Sat mar 23 2019
discussion...

msas analyses this morning depict the center of a 1025mb surface
anticyclone anchored along the western shoreline of lake michigan.

The surface high is an artifact of upper level confluent flow and
high midlevel stability. While temporarily blocked, the surface
anticyclone will expand more aggressively into southeast michigan
today in response to differential 1000-500mb height rises as the
anomalous midlevel cold pool migrates eastward. The area is all but
assured of cloud free skies given the dewpoint depressions
throughout the entire column in the forecast soundings. With full
insolation, light westerly wind trajectory, and mixing heights that
are forecasted to reach approximately 3300 ft agl, wanted to go a
degree or two higher than MOS for MAX temperatures today. Forecasted
highs are expected to reach the upper 40s during the late afternoon.

Quiescent weather conditions tonight with surface ridging in place.

Virtually no gradient will result in a surface based inversion.

Given no tangible near surface moisture not expecting much of
an impact.

Vertically stacked low pressure disturbance will be in the process
of pushing eastward as a southern jet MAX develops a linkage to the
southern periphery of the cyclonic circulation. Current model data
suggests less organization and slower timing to the development of a
weak baroclinic zone immediately south of lower michigan on Sunday.

This results in a slight slowing of the impact to the passing wave
for Sunday evening. Differences exist with the system, primarily
with the likelihood and potential duration of low-midlevel
deformation. Meanwhile, models have been absolutely steadfast in
showing an inertially unstable setup that will result in a rapid
transition to anticyclonic flow trajectories over the great lakes
and a hyper aggressive backdoor cold front right out of canada.

Precipitation type will be dependent upon the timing of this
backdoor cold front. Earlier timing of the front will likely
suppress the frontal wave to the south and east, while optimal
timing of the low level cold air advection may result in a
changeover to snow and a minor accumulation before precipitation
ends. The ECMWF is the most bearish of solutions, and generally used
the output to direct timing of precipitation type. Otherwise, the
main edit to the forecast was to increase pops Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Aggressive surface high pressure will build into the great lakes
region for the beginning to middle of next week. Below normal
temperatures are anticipated both Monday and Tuesday.

Marine...

there will be a steady decrease in the winds and waves across the
lakes this morning into the afternoon as the gradient weakens with
high pressure expanding across the ohio valley. Winds will back
toward the southwest during the afternoon and there will be a modest
uptick in the speeds as a cold front advances into the northern
great lakes from the north Saturday night. This front will push
south across lake huron on Sunday and will be marked by a rapid wind
shift to the north-northeast. Strong high pressure forecast to
expand across northern ontario and low pressure traversing the ohio
valley will result in an increasing northeasterly gradient across
the area Sunday night and into Monday, with wind gusts possibly
reaching 30 knots on southern lake huron. This will likely result in
small craft advisory conditions on lake huron. Winds and waves will
then decrease Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure becomes
centered over the region.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lhz421-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 41 mi59 min NW 9.9 29°F 1025.3 hPa18°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi32 min 28°F 35°F1024.6 hPa18°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi70 min WNW 4.1 G 6 26°F 1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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N20
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N11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi59 minNW 10 mi29°F18°F63%1025.3 hPa

Wind History from P58 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12
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N7NW10NW9NW10
1 day agoNW7NW7NW6NW8NW7NW33SW8W7W5--W4W4W5W8W7W9
G15
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2 days agoS8
G16
S9
G15
S5SW12
G21
SW8SW11
G18
SW9
G17
6S7S8SE6S8SE12SE9SE8S6SE5SE4SE4SE4S3CalmW3NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.