Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Hope, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 4:45PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:01 PM EST (17:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 9:52PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ363 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 932 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. A chance of snow early in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. A chance of snow late in the evening. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west late in the evening. A chance of snow in the morning. Rain likely... Then a chance of rain late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain in the evening. A chance of snow late in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LHZ363 Expires:201812122115;;682097 FZUS63 KDTX 121432 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 932 AM EST Wed Dec 12 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A weak surface ridge of 30.10 inches will drift east of the central Great Lakes this morning. A compact low pressure system at 29.90 inches will track into the Lower Peninsula tonight. A strong area of high pressure, 30.50 inches, will build southward from Quebec to the east coast resulting in southerly flow over the region Thursday and Friday. LHZ362-363-122115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Hope, MI
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location: 44.5, -82.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 121441
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
941 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Aviation
Introduction of fresh cyclonic flow in advance of dynamic upper
level low pressure system has allowed the air mass to finally turn
over. While the inversion and dry air associated with the inversion
still exists, lower level moisture has stripped out pf the region.

It will take awhile for deeper moisture to lift back into the state.

Latest model data suggests after 3 pm as a fragile shallow frontal
layer lifts into place from the south. Model trends have been
overwhelmingly warmer with the boundary layer this afternoon. As a
result, expecting rain or drizzle beginning this afternoon. An
uncertain aspect of this forecast is what is the likelihood that a
mesoscale low pressure center will release off of lake michigan and
track through metro detroit between 00-04z. A lot of uncertainty
exists, but there has been enough signal that suggests this is
possible. Conditional to this mesoscale low pressure circulation, a
potential for deep moisture and a changeover to moderate snow will
be possible between 00-04z. Surface air temperatures are forecasted
to remain above the freezing mark which will limit impacts. A period
of drizzle will be possible then for the remainder of the
overnight. Any snowfall remain at an inch or less.

For dtw...VFR condtions early today with loss of lower tropospheric
moisture. Light rain or drizzle developing after 20-00z with some
low confidence potential for snow between 00-4z.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for cig below 5000 ft this morning high by late afternoon.

* low to moderate for ptype as snow by Wednesday evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 354 am est Wed dec 12 2018
discussion...

strong upper wave moving through wi il early this morning will bring
a round of light snowfall for southeast michigan today as it moves
over lake michigan and through the state. The system will wrap up
and strengthen a little as it approaches and draws northward a moist
axis. There will be increasing isentropic ascent in tandem with good
upper level divergence resulting in increasing precipitation chances
for the entire cwa.

Overall moisture quality with this system will be lacking and will
only be able to generate around a tenth of QPF or less. Increasing
southeast flow ahead of the system will attempt to usher in some
warmer air, but it will be pinched off by the leading edge of the
incoming cold pool across lower michigan leaving at or below 0c
temperatures at 850 mb for areas to the north. Some concerns with
this forecasts are there will a good amount of dry air over
southeast michigan that will be attempting to saturate as
precipitation moves in during the early afternoon along with some
warmer air in the lower levels along and south of the i-96 corridor.

In addition there will also be also an ice nucleation issues across
the northern half of the area as the stronger fgen swings through
the saginaw valley. Wet bulb zero heights suggest there will be some
light snow that could mix in with some drizzle across the northern
half of the CWA with light rain to the south towards at the onset of
this precipitation. As profiles cool towards the evening, we should
begin to see a transition to light snow with the potential for
drizzle conditions to continue through the tail end of the event.

Have lowered snowfall amounts slightly given these conditions.

Snowfall of a half inch to near an inch will remain most favorable
across the saginaw valley. A half inch or less expected across the
southern half of the area given the warmer lower level and surface
conditions throughout the day. Not expecting the drizzle conditions
to have any impact with surface temperatures across the north
hovering around the freezing mark during the day. As precipitation
trails off to the east tonight, temperatures will fall into the
upper 20s.

The closed mid upper level low will move east of the area by around
midnight as a amplified shortwave ridge quickly builds in and brings
an end to precipitation by early Thursday morning. A southern stream
low pressure system will strengthen across the south central us on
Thursday, warm air advection will push into michigan under
increasing south southwesterly flow. Temperatures should be able to
climb into the upper 30s for Thursday. There will be potential for
some fog development overnight Thursday if higher dewpoints push
northward before precipitation chances begin to increase again early
Friday morning. Some frozen precipitation or very brief window of
light freezing rain may be possible at the onset of the event north
of i-69 with low temperatures around freezing, but the degree of
warm advection should transition to rain quickly and also mitigate
any impacts.

The combination mid upper level jet forcing from both the northern
stream and southern stream waves will provide continued lift ahead
of a front keeping rain chances in the forecast through Friday
afternoon. Warm advection will help bring temperatures up into the
upper 30s and low 40s for daytime highs. Models are converging
towards the euro in regards to the track of the southern stream low
pressure system and keeping the precipitation to our south. This
will allow for a drier solution for Saturday and Sunday.

Low confidence in the forecast for early next week as a cold front
is forecast to push through. GFS is much more aggressive with this
system and placement of a more amplified trough, which bring a surge
of cold air some scattered snow shower potential. The euro is much
weaker with the front while maintaining a stronger high pressure and
warmer scenario. Will favor the warmer and drier solution with this
forecast package. Quiet conditions look to continue into the middle
of next week as high pressure persists.

Marine...

surface winds have become light overnight as surface high pressure
ridging moves across the central great lakes. Fresh and moderate
southeast flow of 20-25 knots will develop today ahead of an
approaching compact midlevel disturbance that will bring a period of
scattered rain snow showers during the late afternoon and evening.

Small craft advisories are in effect for portions of the nearshore
waters of lake huron. Modest south to southeast flow will continue
Thursday into Friday, with gusty northeast flow potentially
developing over the lake huron basin this weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for lhz421-441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KP58 41 mi70 min SSE 9.9 34°F 1016.7 hPa25°F
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 48 mi43 min S 15 G 19 33°F 33°F1016.1 hPa26°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 61 mi81 min SSE 9.9 G 16 33°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Port Hope, MI41 mi70 minSSE 10 mi34°F25°F70%1016.7 hPa

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Last 24hrW9W8W7W7W6W4W6NW9W6W6SW5SW5SW5SW4SW4SW5SW43SW3S3S7S8SE10SE10
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1 day ago345SW8SW84S45454SW645S5SW563SW4SW6SW5W4W7W10
2 days agoW7W76
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SW5SW4SW6SW4W5NW7NW7NW8W5SW4W4SW5CalmSW5SW7SW6SW4SW5SW5SW34

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.