Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Toledo, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:52PM Friday February 22, 2019 7:59 AM PST (15:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 622 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
.small craft advisory for winds in effect from 10 am pst this morning through this evening...
Rest of today..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, rising to 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. W swell 9 ft at 13 seconds, subsiding to 6 ft at 13 seconds in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Tonight..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt early in the evening. W swell 7 ft at 13 seconds. Rain likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight.
Sat..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt late in the afternoon. NW swell 9 ft at 13 seconds. Showers likely.
Sat night..W wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, easing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. NW swell 8 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Sun..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the morning. NW swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sun night..E wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. NW swell 6 ft at 11 seconds. Rain likely.
Mon..NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 ft. W swell 7 ft.
Tue..SE wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. SW swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 622 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A quick moving and narrow frontal system will drop southward across the waters and result in a brief period of gusty winds today. A weak low pressure will then drift southward across the waters Saturday night and Sunday with few impacts.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Toledo, OR
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location: 44.54, -123.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 221223
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
423 am pst Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis A cold front will spread low elevation rain and mountain
snow across the region today. This will be followed by a reinforcing
shot of cool air, keeping temperatures below normal and snow levels
unseasonably low as a result. The cold front is expected to stall
near eugene tonight, with another round of steady precipitation
likely developing across much of western oregon by late Saturday. Wet
snow may fall as low as 500-1000 feet as steady and locally heavy
precipitation continues Saturday night and Sunday. Snow will be heavy
in the oregon cascades, with a couple feet of snow possible by
Sunday. A stronger low is expected to develop offshore along the
stalled front by Sunday, likely moving onshore somewhere along the
oregon coast Monday. If this occurs, significant snow will be likely
down to the lowest elevations north of the front Monday, with heavy
rain to the south of the front.

Short term Today through Sunday... Klgx radar shows the first
showers associated with an incoming cold front just about to reach
the long beach peninsula as of 345 am this morning. Temperatures are
near freezing along the coast, but clouds and increased mixing just
ahead of the showers appear to be pushing temps up a couple degrees,
mitigating the threat of snow or freezing rain with these showers.

Cannot completely rule out a couple pockets of wet snow or freezing
rain as these showers move onshore early this morning, but any
accumulation should be minimal and spotty at best.

Better organized band of precipitation associated with the cold front
is expected to spread into pacific and clatsop counties later this
morning. This band will continue south and eastward throughout the
day. 06z NAM 4km nested model shows the frontal band pushing through
the portland metro area around the time of this evening's commute,
continuing slowly southward overnight until the front stalls near the
lane douglas county border early Saturday morning. Precipitation
should be in the form of rain for the lowlands through Saturday
morning, as snow levels ahead of the front range from 1000 feet in sw
washington to 2500 feet in lane county. Issued winter weather
advisories for the cascades and foothills above said elevations, as
the front should produce a quick 4 to 8 inches of snow late today
through tonight with locally higher amounts possible. Precipitation
should taper off quickly with only a few showers expected to linger
behind the front.

The weather Saturday and Sunday will be dominated by the then-stalled
front near lane county and waves of low pressure riding along that
quasi-stationary front. Moisture transport along the front will be
increasing at the time, but probably won't be sufficient quite yet to
be classified as an atmospheric river. Still, 40-50 kt southwesterly
850 mb flow into the cascades will be enough to result in periods of
heavy snow for the passes. Winter storm watches appear to be in good
shape for the oregon cascades, though we expanded them to include the
oregon cascade foothills due to uncertainty in snow levels. We also
extended them into Monday to account for an incoming low pressure
system, discussed further below.

For the lowlands, it appears precipitation will be mostly rain below
1000 feet through Sunday, though model soundings flirt with lower
snow levels during periods of heavier precipitation. Would not be
surprised if elevated portions of the salem, corvallis, and or eugene
metro areas get a bit of wet snow above 500-700 feet in elevation,
but at this point it appears significant accumulations will be
confined to elevations 1000 feet and above.

The quasi-stationary front remains draped across oregon w-sw into the
pacific Sunday while a shortwave now near 35n 163w develops into a
surface low well offshore. The 00z ECMWF appears to have this system
better initialized than the 00z gfs, so we trended our forecast for
Monday in the direction of the 00z ECMWF as the low approaches the
oregon coast. Where this low makes landfall will have major
implications on precipitation type, especially for the lowlands. The
00z ECMWF is on the northern side of the 00z suite of guidance with
where this landfall occurs. Another reason for preferring the 00z
ecmwf is that it does not appear there is much reinforcement to the
cold air to our north and east, and the thrust of cold air injecting
into the upper trough appears to be on the western periphery of the
trough. This should further encourage the frontal zone to lift
northward as the upper trough axis retrogrades a bit. Given this
evolution, it appears the lowlands, especially salem northward will
see some accumulating snow though there remains a great amount of
uncertainty in how much. Given the faster northward progression of
the frontal zone depicted by the 00z ecmwf, suspect snow will fairly
quickly turn to sleet or freezing rain and then rain outside of the
columbia gorge, with mostly rain south of salem Monday. However, if
the front stays south of the columbia river as some models ensembles
suggest, this system could result in a major lowland snow event for
the portland metro and much of SW washington. For now, our forecast
shows snow amounts of generally 2 to 5 inches for the interstate 5
corridor north of salem before precipitation changes over. As usual,
the columbia gorge will hold on to the low-level cold air the
longest, and nearly all of the precipitation Monday through Tuesday
may fall as snow in hood river with increasing chances for earlier
sleet or freezing rain cascade locks westward. It is still early to
be considering watches or advisories for the Monday Tuesday system,
and much may still change in the forecast between now and then.

Weagle

Long term Monday night through Thursday... The forecast for next
week remains complicated due to significant model differences so, as
mentioned in the previous discussion, will continue to use a blend
of models rather than a single deterministic model. The general trend
is for the active weather pattern to continue through much of next
week, with snow levels remaining low as waves of low pressure
approach the oregon coast. Weagle 64

Aviation High clouds spread inland overnight in advance of
the next system. Radar shows rain nearing the north washington
coast at 11z. Radar also showing a line of showers parallel to
the washington and north oregon coast that should move onshore
shortly, this may bring a mix of snow and rain as it moves
onshore. Generally expectVFR conditions with several hours of
MVFR conditions as the front moves through the north oregon coast
early in the afternoon and late afternoon for inland and central
oregon coast TAF sites. Used hrrr NAM models as guidance for
timing the frontal movement. Once the front pushes through any
given site, expect conditions to return to predominantlyVFR
conditions as the lower atmosphere destabilizes.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions prevailing except for
several hours of MVFR conditions from about 21z Fri to 01z sat.

Thereafter, the atmosphere should destabilize with a transition
back towards predominantlyVFR conditions through 06z Saturday.

Mh neuman

Marine Seas just around 10 feet for the central oregon coastal
waters so will extend the advisory a few more hours this morning.

A cold front will drop southeastward across the waters today and
will bring increasing southwesterly winds ahead of it across the
waters. This should bring small craft advisory level wind gusts
of 25 kt to the northern waters in the morning and the early
afternoon. The front will be weakening as it moves southward, but
should still be strong enough to produce a period of gusty winds
in the central oregon waters late in the morning and afternoon. Seas
should respond accordingly and climb back up towards 10 ft
Saturday morning.

Winds should then be rather quiet across the waters over the
weekend. This trend appears likely to continue into early next
week, but there is an outside chance a strengthening low pressure
system currently projected to move into the southern oregon
coast, could move farther north and bring a surge in southerly
winds as far north as newport late Sunday night into Monday.

Another weak low pressure may drop southward out of british
columbia during the middle of next week, which could result in a
multi-day stretch of easterly winds across the waters later next
week. Neuman

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am pst
Saturday for northern oregon cascade foothills-northern
oregon cascades.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday
night for cascade foothills in lane county-northern oregon
cascade foothills.

Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for cascades in lane county-northern oregon
cascades.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 7 am pst
Saturday for cascades in lane county.

Wa... Winter weather advisory from noon today to 10 pm pst this
evening for south washington cascade foothills-south
washington cascades.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 6 am this morning to 5 pm
pst this afternoon for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater
wa to cascade head or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from 10 am this morning to 9 pm
pst this evening for coastal waters from cascade head or
to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 7 am pst this
morning for coastal waters from cascade head or to
florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 9 am
pst this morning.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 5 pm
this afternoon to 9 pm pst this evening.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 5 am to
10 am pst Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 8 mi60 min E 5.1 G 7 34°F 1020.1 hPa (+0.0)
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 8 mi48 min ESE 8.9 G 11 35°F 49°F1020.1 hPa
46097 20 mi130 min S 14 45°F 49°F1018.9 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 32 mi40 min SSW 12 G 14 1019.9 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR6 mi65 minESE 37.00 miOvercast34°F32°F93%1021 hPa

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5NE4NE5NW5NW7NW6NW9NW8N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E5CalmCalmE5E4CalmE5SE3
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Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
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Fri -- 03:01 AM PST     8.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:07 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:11 AM PST     0.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:00 PM PST     8.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:28 PM PST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.46.68.18.78.26.953.11.611.32.64.56.47.98.486.74.82.81.20.20.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Yaquina, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Yaquina
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:27 AM PST     8.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:05 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM PST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:07 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:26 PM PST     8.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:44 PM PST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.97.78.88.77.65.93.92.21.21.32.345.97.68.58.47.45.63.51.60.40.20.92.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.