Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oscoda, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 6:49PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 10:52 AM EDT (14:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1042 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:201810172245;;323859 FZUS53 KAPX 171442 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1042 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-172245-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oscoda, MI
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location: 44.54, -83.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 171422
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1022 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Update
Issued at 1009 am edt Wed oct 17 2018
deep layer chilly northwest flow continues across the great lakes
this morning. While not perfect, condition more than favorable
for the production of lake effect showers, with local 12z sounding
showing inversion levels up near 750 mbs, h8 temperatures well
below freezing, and plentiful synoptic moisture within the
convective boundary layer. Given shallow surface based melting
layer, much of the lake generated precip is falling as snow, some
of which has been locally heavy (visibilities less than a quarter
of a mile and minor accumulations). Next subtle wave and attendant
moisture plume expected to cross the area later this morning and
early afternoon, keeping the lake processes active. Diurnal trends
will keep showers scattered, negating any real banding
development. Still, given favorable inversion levels and a more
than favorable over-water thermal environment, expect some of
these showers to remain quite intense. Convective nature of
showers will result in quick cooling with precip onset,
offsetting a slowly growing melting layer... Favoring snow as the
dominate precip type (especially away from the big waters). Not
expecting much accumulation, with local amounts up to an inch
possible where heaviest snow showers are most persistent.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 215 am edt Wed oct 17 2018

Brisk with lake enhanced rain and snow showers today into
tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Cold front has cleared our CWA early
this morning. NW low level flow CAA has kicked in immediately behind
the front... Resulting in surface temps dropping thru the 30s across
much of our cwa. Lake enhanced showers have yet to develop... But a
look at upstream radar kmqt shows the beginning of lake shower
development taking place attm.

As we head into today... CAA will continue with 850 mb temps dropping
to -10 to -12 c by evening. Deep cyclonic flow will remain in place
thru today... As spokes of deeper moisture pivot around the upper low
which will lend a hand to lake precip processes. Expect a general
mix of rain and snow thru today... With the best chance of snow
across eastern upper michigan and within the higher elevations of
northern lower michigan. The best chances of precip in general will
be for the typical NW flow snowbelt areas. These locations will see
a inch or two of wet snow accumulation thru today... Mainly on grassy
areas.

Upstream surface ridge axis will steadily build into the western
great lakes region tonight. Strengthening subsidence... The breakdown
of cyclonic flow and increasingly drier air will result in a gradual
diminish in remaining lake enhanced showers. Additional snow
accumulations tonight will be well under an inch.

Temps will not go very far today thanks to ongoing caa... With high
temps only reaching the upper 30s and lower 40s. Low temps tonight
will drop mainly into the 20s... With slightly warmer temps near the
lake michigan shoreline as NW low level flow persists.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 215 am edt Wed oct 17 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis: rising heights aloft will be the rule on Thursday
while attendant surface high pressure and low level warm air
advection dominant northern michigan's sensible weather through
Friday morning. Attention then turns toward another clipper system
trekking across southern canada with increasing rain shower chances
Friday afternoon into Friday night... Followed by another plunge of
cold air and lake effect precipitation for the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: increasing precipitation
chances Friday.

Generally quiet weather is anticipated Thursday through Friday
morning across the forecast area as influence from high pressure to
our south leads to partly sunny skies and high temperatures some 10
or so degrees warmer than Wednesday... Ranging from the upper 40s to
low 50s area-wide.

Focus transitions to the Friday afternoon timeframe as mid-level
energy rides northeastward from the central plains toward the
western great lakes all while shortwave troughing digs across
manitoba into the upper mississippi valley. Increasing southwesterly
return flow will be the result locally throughout much of the day
with scattered isentropically driven showers entering the forecast
by midday into the remainder of the afternoon hours, with the
highest pops across the northern half of the forecast area. High
temperatures in the low-mid 50s across northern michigan.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 215 am edt Wed oct 17 2018
shower chances continue Friday evening associated with the
aforementioned clipper system's cold front expected to cross
northern michigan Friday night. Cyclonic flow on the backside of
this system will linger across the great lakes through Sunday with
plenty of cold air to continue rain snow shower chances downwind of
the great lakes. High temperatures throughout the extended period on
the order of 10 or so degrees below normal... Ranging from the upper
30s to mid 40s this weekend.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 645 am edt Wed oct 17 2018
lake enhanced rain and snow showers will continue to impact much
of northern lower michigan today into this evening as cold air
sweeps into the region in the wake of a cold front that moved thru
last night. Overall conditions will remain lowVFR thru the
forecast period... But may briefly drop to MVFR within some of the
heavier showers. NW winds of 15 to 25 kts will occasionally gust
to 30 kts thru today... But will weaken later tonight as high
pressure begins to build into the region.

Marine
Issued at 215 am edt Wed oct 17 2018
winds and waves will reach SCA criteria within all nearshore areas
today and tonight as NW winds strengthen in the wake of a cold front
that moved thru the region last night. Lake enhanced shower activity
will develop today as CAA continues. Showers will diminish tonight
as upstream high pressure and drier air gradually build into the
region. Conditions may reach gale warning criteria Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night as SW winds strengthen on the backside
of the surface high center.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Gale watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for lmz341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lsz321-322.

Update... mb
near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Mr
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 21 mi72 min WNW 6 G 11 39°F 1017.6 hPa
TBIM4 35 mi32 min WNW 12 G 18 39°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 36 mi22 min NNW 22 G 26 38°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 37 mi34 min NNW 11 G 17 38°F 56°F1016.5 hPa31°F
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 38 mi72 min W 21 G 25 39°F 1017.6 hPa
KP58 45 mi61 min WNW 17 G 28 41°F 1016.5 hPa31°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI7 mi57 minWNW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F31°F74%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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SW9SW8SW7SW8SW9NW17
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1 day agoNW11
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2 days agoW11SW12
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S5S3S3CalmCalmS3SW3SW3SW3CalmSW4SW5SW5SW5W5W6NW11
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.