Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Machias, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:48PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 1:41 AM EDT (05:41 UTC) Moonrise 6:20PMMoonset 6:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 1233 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Rest of tonight..NW winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, building to 9 to 14 ft after midnight. Rain likely. A chance of snow after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers through the night. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ005 1233 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pressure will move south of the waters through Wednesday then slide to the east Wednesday night. Low pressure will develop along the mid atlantic coast on Thursday then track north into the gulf of maine on Friday, then meander about the western canadian maritimes over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Machias, ME
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location: 44.62, -67.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 200433
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1233 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will slide south of the area tonight through
Wednesday then move east into the open atlantic Wednesday night.

Low pressure will develop off the mid-atlantic coast on
Thursday and track north to our region on Friday.

Near term through today
Update 12:30 am: have made adjustments based on current
conditions for wind, temperature, and dew point. No other
changes.

Previous discussion:
high pressure nearby to the south will bring a mostly clear and
moonlit night tonight with valley areas again significantly
colder than the ridges. Lows by late tonight will range from
near or just below zero in some northern valleys to the teens
and low 20s downeast. Sunshine will give way to some increasing
high clouds on Wednesday, especially across the north. A return
flow around high pressure to our south will bring a light
southwesterly breeze. Wednesday afternoon will turn milder with
highs approaching 40 in most areas.

Short term tonight through Friday
On Wednesday night, high pressure will be offshore with a
tightening pressure gradient generating steady southwest winds
and warm advection. These factors and some cloud cover will
result in lows in the mid to upper 20s north while readings in
the lower 30s are forecast for bangor and the coast. From these
elevated levels, Thursday’s highs will jump into the low to
mid 40s under the continuing influence of the offshore high.

Meanwhile, an amplifying upper trough digging southward from the
great lakes region into the southeastern us will phase with a
rich supply of moisture with a disturbance along the carolina
coast. This interaction is expected to result in explosive
cyclogenesis on Thursday. The question will be where. This is
important as the low will likely be driven nearly due northward
Thursday night into Friday towards maine. If the low forms east
of CAPE hatteras, it may stay east of maine with more snow. If
the low forms closer to the coast, it has a higher probability
of moving west of the forecast area with rain. Sref, many gfs
ensemble members and naefs support a more eastern track while
current operational models such as ECMWF and GFS support the
western track. Even at this point, significant uncertainty
remains in the forecast. With the eastern track, the antecedent
air mass is warm and boundary layer warmth will have to be
eliminated before any heavy wet snow could start. Even then,
areas closer to the coast may stay all rain. With the west
track, river ice break up and minor urban flooding will be the
concerns due to rainfall and snowmelt. Today's 6z and 12z
guidance continues the westward shift... Including the formerly
colder gfs- fv3. The new forecast uses the more westward track
with precip breaking out along the western border of the state
later Thursday, but most areas won’t see precipitation until
late Thursday night. There will be some light accumulations of
snow in northern and western zones Thursday night before precip
goes to all rain. The rain is forecast continue most of Friday.

Rainfall could be heavy at times as pwats move towards 1 inch
and elevated instability makes thunder possible. Rain will start
tapering off later Friday as the dry slot arrives. Colder air
will also arrive... Changing rain to snow.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
On Friday night, rain will gradually change to all snow and
there could be some accumulation as the trowal of this major
storm crosses the area. There remains a lot of uncertainty on
the position of the upper low by this time... And the resultant
position of the trowal. Strong winds start later Saturday as
the storm moves in the canadian maritimes. Most of the snow will
be over by later Saturday afternoon and it’s certainly
conceivable there will be enough for an advisory. The winds
continue Saturday night into Sunday. Gusts over 45 mph are
possible. Temperatures will warm up Sunday afternoon ahead of a
cold front that will cross Sunday night into Monday morning.

This front will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air for the
first half of next week. High pressure will build behind the
front and persist through the end of the forecast period.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Near term:VFR conditions are expected to persist across the
area tonight and Wednesday.

Short term: expect mostlyVFR conditions Wednesday night into
Thursday. Ifr to lifr will be the prevailing condition Thursday
night into Saturday morning due to rain, snow and cigs. Embedded
thunderstorms are possible Friday towards bgr and bhb.

Marine
Near term: winds and seas are expected to be light tonight and
Wednesday with a light offshore breeze overnight and then a
light return flow out of the southwest on Wednesday.

Short term: a small craft advisory will likely be required
Thursday night into Sunday, but gale conditions are possible
Friday morning... And even more so on Saturday. Thunderstorms may
be possible over the waters on Friday.

Hydrology
The combined amount of rainfall and snowmelt may be enough to
lift ice and generate ice jam potential in the southern half of
the forecast area. River rises are progged at 2 to 4 feet which
should be sufficient to break up some ice. Further north,
existing snowpack will likely absorb the rainfall without
issues. The combined t TD thawing degree hour index is not
providing any caution signals as the period of warmer temps and
dew points is relatively brief.

Along the coast, high astronomical tides and storm surge at
Friday morning's high tides seem likely to cause minor issues at
some of the usual trouble spots such as the deer isle causeway,
seawall road, and machias.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Mignone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 29 mi53 min 28°F 34°F1028.7 hPa
CFWM1 - Cutler Farris Wharf, ME (8411060) 29 mi53 min N 1.9 G 2.9 23°F 37°F1027.3 hPa
44027 33 mi51 min NNW 9.7 G 12 34°F 38°F2 ft1028.1 hPa (+0.7)8°F
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 41 mi97 min WNW 9.7 G 12 33°F 38°F1 ft1027.9 hPa
PSBM1 - 8410140 - Eastport, ME 45 mi59 min W 4.1 G 6 27°F 37°F1028.6 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 49 mi41 min WNW 12 G 13 33°F 1028.7 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Cutler Farris Wharf, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME35 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair21°F10°F65%1029.3 hPa

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm5NW8W8NW7NW8
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NW106W7W4W3CalmCalmW4NW3CalmCalm
1 day agoW3SW3SW3SW4W3Calm6W8
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5W5NW7NW64CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Addison, Pleasant River, Maine
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Addison
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Wed -- 05:00 AM EDT     -1.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:12 AM EDT     14.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EDT     -2.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:43 PM EDT     14.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.39.65.92.2-0.4-1.3-0.32.46.410.313.314.614.111.783.80.2-1.8-1.80.13.67.811.413.6

Tide / Current Tables for Milbridge, Narraguagus River, Maine
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Milbridge
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Wed -- 04:51 AM EDT     -1.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:52 AM EDT     13.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:23 PM EDT     -1.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:23 PM EDT     13.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.28.34.81.5-0.6-1.203.1710.813.213.912.910.36.62.8-0.3-1.8-1.60.64.38.411.613.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.