Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 4:21 AM   Moonset 6:17 PM

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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 729 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Tue night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 5 seconds. Showers likely in the afternoon. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 6 seconds. Showers likely. Thu - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of showers. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely. Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.

ANZ100 729 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a cold front crosses the waters tonight, with high pressure building in behind the front tomorrow several waves of low pressure cross through the the waters for the middle and later portions of the week.

FXUS61 KCAR 070156 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 956 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure will then build over the area from the northwest later tonight into Tuesday. Low pressure systems will slide south of the area Wednesday and again on Thursday. A new low may develop to our south on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
950 pm update...The cold front is continues to progress through northern zones with scattered showers. The shower activity will diminish in the next few hours as the front continues to move southward through the night. Since drier air will not reach the coast until later in the night, fog has developed in portions of coastal Hancock and Washington counties, but should lift well before daybreak. Much cooler 925/850mb temps arrive tonight into Tuesday and will result in much lower high temps in northern zones Tuesday. Highs may not be much different in Bangor due to weaker cold advection and a deep mixed layer on Tuesday. The coast will actually be quite a bit warmer tomorrow than today due to the offshore winds.

Previous discussion...
The weak cold front boundary will move SE out over the waters tonight, ushering in high pressure. For this evening, breaks the in the low cloud cover will help support convection with the associated instability along the front. With the CAPE values above 100J/kg and steep lapse rates across the north, cannot rule our some isolated thunderstorms embedded in the scattered showers this evening. As the front exits, some lingering showers are expected with any left over diurnal heating. By tonight, clouds will decrease with the high pressure settling in. The S flow along the coast will remain until after midnight when light NW winds move in. During this time before midnight, the marine layer is expected to move onshore, causing patchy to areas of fog for Downeast and across the waters. Temps will be cooler night with the weak cold front passage.

For Tuesday, high pressure will settle in making for mostly sunny skies and breezy NW winds. Vorticity maps show some shortwave energy moving across the north in the afternoon, causing some clouds to build in, but should be short lived. Due to the NW flow and increasing clouds, areas in the north will be in the low 60s while the south will be in the upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upr trof will be heading into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday evening with flow transitioning to a zonal flow. At the surface, ridge axis will be nosing into the area overnight before shifting east into Canada Wednesday morning. Fairly potent s/wv will be rounding the base of the trof with inland low moving into New England. As it does it will begin spreading showers into the CWA after 18z. Secondary cyclogenesis occurs off of the coast late Wednesday night with inland low beginning to fill.
How far south this low tracks will determine axis of heaviest rainfall. 12z NAM is the furthest north with lopres as well as the qpf axis, while remaining operational members and their ensembles are just slightly further south with both. Have kept likely pops confined south of a Moosehead to Danforth line with chc pops further to the north. As system heads east Thursday morning it will take pcpn with it. However, given lingering upr lvl trof still in the vicinity have kept slgt chc for showers during the day on Thursday, especially given diurnal convection.

Temps likely to top out in the lower 60s on Wednesday, in the lower 50s along the coast with onshore flow. Thursday/s maxes will be a degree or two lower but overall near normal temps expected throughout the short term period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
With the ever persistent longwave trof draped fm the Maritimes twd the Midwest a similar system to Wednesday night will be approaching the area at the end of the week. Latest 12z guidance has trended just a smidge further to the south with the heaviest rainfall. Expecting rain to move into the region toward midnight Thursday night and out of the area by midnight Friday night. Once again, northern zones will be hard-pressed to see any heavier rainfall as most of it will remain acrs the Downeast areas given the latest guidance. Once the system clears out Saturday evening, slgt chc to chc pops lingers Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be below normal in clouds and rain before moderating to near/above normal on Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR for all terminals this evening with some MVFR in scattered showers. Possible isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions tonight and Tuesday. Light and variable winds tonight, then NW winds 5-15 kts Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night...VFR. NW 5-10kts.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Becoming MVFR south in the afternoon in light showers. Light NE-SE winds Wednesday afternoon becoming E 5- 10kts Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR. NE 5-10kts.

Thursday night-Saturday...MVFR south with VFR north. ENE 5-15kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels through Thursday. Winds will increase out of the northeast beginning Thursday night with marginal gusts over the outer waters on Friday. Seas increase above 5ft Friday night and remain elevated through Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Winterport
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Mon -- 03:56 AM EDT     -1.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:50 AM EDT     13.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:13 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:09 PM EDT     14.40 feet High Tide
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Winterport, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

Gross Point
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Mon -- 03:52 AM EDT     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM EDT     11.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:09 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     12.73 feet High Tide
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Gross Point, Eastern Channel, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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