Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Winterport, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 4:04PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:08 AM EST (08:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:25AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 1124 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sun..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming sw 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
ANZ100 1124 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will build over the waters through tomorrow. Low pressure to our north will drag a robust cold front across the waters on Sunday. The result will be strong gusty winds Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. High pressure returns on Monday and will remain in place through the remainder of the forecast period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winterport, ME
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location: 44.64, -68.84     debug

Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 180517
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1217 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Low pressure will continue to exit across the canadian
maritimes overnight as high pressure builds across from the
west. The high will move east on Saturday. Another low will
track toward the area Saturday night through Sunday.

Near term through today
1215 am update... No significant changes needed with this update.

Stratocumulus deck is hanging tough across northeastern
aroostook county at this hour and will likely linger for the
next few hours. Have adjusted the sky cover forecast
accordingly. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no
other changes were needed.

Previous discussion... Surface and upper level low pressure will
continue to exit through the canadian maritimes overnight to be
replaced by surface and upper level ridging by Saturday
morning. The gusty northwest winds will continue into this
evening as a tight pressure gradient remains in place across the
area. However, the wind will begin to subside toward daybreak
Saturday as the gradient weakens and the high builds across from
the west. Expect mainly cloudy skies this evening to give way
to partial clearing overnight. Lows tonight will generally range
from the mid teens to around 20 across the north and lower 20s
across central and downeast. After a mainly sunny start to the
day, Saturday will see increasing high and mid clouds by
afternoon in advance of the next low tracking toward the region
from the west. However, it will remain dry as any precipitation
associated with the next system holds off until after dark
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid to upper 30s
north and lower 40s central and down east.

Short term tonight through Monday
Precipitation will spread from SW to NE over Sat night.

Depending on how cold the lowest levels get Sat pm and early
overnight hours, overrunning warm air could lead to some early
snow and then mixed precip overnight. Any mixing would be mainly
north of a greenville-houlton line between 00z and 06z sun, with
all rain expected by daybreak sun. As of now, the NAM appears to
be the strongest on mixed precip potential, but the GFS is not
too much warmer, so it seemed prudent to include the mix

Gusty s-se'ly winds will pump warmer air into the CWA after 12am
sun, and pretty widespread rain is expected into Sun afternoon
as low pressure moves NE down the st. Lawrence valley. There is
some disagreement on the path of the main low and whether or not
a coastal low will develop, and for now the forecast reflects
the main low passing just north of the state Sun afternoon with
no significant coastal low development. As the low passes to the
north, rainfall will diminish from S to N Sun eve, with just
some lingering snow showers expected across the crown of maine
and western north woods through early Mon morning.

Regarding possible headlines in the short term, at this point am
not convinced of the need for any wind headlines. Typical
parameters we look for to get advisory level winds for downeast
are not met later Sun or Sun night. That said, will need to
watch for high winds in the central highlands and quebec border
(mainly zones 3, 4, and 10) behind the cold front. A gale watch
seems quite likely, once the current marine headlines expire.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Weak ridging likely to bring dry weather Mon night into tue
morning. A weak shortwave moving through canada may push a front
across the area Tue night or Wed am. There will likely be some
rain snow showers with this front across the north and west
zones, but kept pops to low- end chance for now due to
disagreements on timing and also uncertainty on the coverage.

Expecting a break in the weather Wed into thu. All models point
to the potential for a trough and associated surface low
crossing the area Fri and Fri night, though there are
significant disagreements on how deep the trough will be and the
strength of the surface low and coverage of precip. Did lean
toward the stronger cmc ECMWF solution, but kept pops to chance
or less for now.

Aviation 05z Saturday through Wednesday
Near term: MVFR ceilings late this afternoon will give way to
vfr and decreasing clouds overnight. Northwest winds will gust
up to 35 kt this evening and then diminish overnight. Light
winds andVFR conditions can be expected on Saturday.

Short term:VFR conditions Sat eve will quickly deteriorate to
ifr and even lifr conditions late Sat night into Sun am, with
these reduced conditions expected to continue into early sat
afternoon. Improvement back to MVFR orVFR conditions are
expected later Sun eve into Sun night, though local ifr
conditions are possible in any lingering snow showers for kpqi
to kfve through 12z mon.VFR conditions then expected Mon and
tue, with another round of rain and or snow showers Tue night
into Wed am bringing possible MVFR or ifr conditions.

Near term: small craft adv conditions are expected the
remainder of the night. Winds seas will remain below small craft
advisory levels early Saturday before increasing by later
Saturday afternoon.

Short term: borderline SCA criteria onshore winds are expected
sat night into early Sun am, with gale force gusts expected
later Sun morning into Sun night as winds shift sw-w'ly. Winds
will decrease some during the day mon, but likely to remain well
above SCA criteria. Seas initially 3-6 ft Sat eve will build to
10-14 ft for offshore waters Sun afternoon through Sun night.

Seas will decrease some Mon as winds turn offshore, but remain
5-9 ft further from the coast.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for

Near term... Hastings vjn
short term... Kredensor
long term... Kredensor
aviation... Hastings vjn kredensor
marine... Hastings vjn kredensor

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 41 mi124 min WNW 12 G 16 31°F 50°F2 ft1012 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 54 mi124 min WNW 23 G 27 35°F 52°F5 ft1009.9 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bangor, Bangor International Airport, ME12 mi75 minW 810.00 miFair26°F16°F66%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from BGR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW8W7W7W9NW10
1 day agoCalmCalmS3E3CalmCalmE5CalmS5SE5E5NE4CalmN5N5N7NE4NE3N5NW5W5NW7W5W7
2 days agoN5N5N4N5N5NE8N8N11NE9NE7E8CalmE3CalmN4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Winterport, Penobscot River, Maine
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Sat -- 04:23 AM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 10:18 AM EST     12.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:39 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:46 PM EST     12.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Hampden, Penobscot River, Maine
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Sat -- 04:39 AM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 10:50 AM EST     14.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:10 PM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:20 PM EST     13.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.