Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winterport, ME

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 4:59AMSunset 8:03PM Monday May 20, 2019 10:24 AM EDT (14:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 907 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely late this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon. Some tstms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the evening. Some tstms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Fri..S winds up to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 907 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Potent low pressure will move north of the waters today, dragging a cold front through the waters tonight. Gusty northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday as high pressure gradually builds in from the west through midweek. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winterport, ME
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location: 44.64, -68.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 201316
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
916 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track up to our northwest today pulling a warm
front into the region. The front will stall across the north
tonight as the low tracks across the area. Low pressure will
continue east through the maritimes on Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
Update 9:00 am: have made adjustments based on latest
observations. No other changes.

Low pressure lifting up to our west will pull a warm front
north across the area today. High pressure off to the east will
hold damp and cooler air across eastern areas while some of the
warmer air will push into the west during the course of the day.

Latest guidance is now showing that the warm front should make
it up into northern maine late today before the triple point
occlusion forms a low across the north early this evening. Some
occasional rain will occur along and just east of the front
during the day. The warmer more humid air over the colder water
will likely result in fog right along the coast. Convergence
along a trailing cold front may produce some convection, with
thunderstorms most likely over western parts of the central
highlands and downeast this afternoon. Some elevated
thundershowers are likely further north. Capes over
southwestern parts of our area range from 500 to 1000 j kg today
with the highest in the bangor area. Any thunderstorms will
likely continue east across downeast areas early in the evening.

Otherwise, a mostly cloudy night with some showers in mainly
eastern areas is expected. Low pressure will consolidate to our
east on Tuesday as the cold upper low tracks in from the west.

This will bring low overcast and some rain and drizzle across
the north with cooler temps, and a partly to mostly cloudy sky
downeast. A breeze will pick up out of the north and northwest
as the low continue east on Tuesday.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
Stacked low pres will be lifting to the east Tuesday night W the
shower activity winding down and pulling to the east during the
evening. Expecting some partial clearing south of the houlton-
millinocket region, while the rest of the region should see
mostly cloudy conditions. This will help to keep temps up some
overnight, but still below the norms for may.

Wednesday looks to remain below normal and overcast for most of
the day as the region still stays under the influence of the low
to the east. The model guidance tends to move systems such as
this latest one., out of the region too quickly. An upper level
disturbance is shown by the gfs ECMWF and canadian global to
slide south across the CWA during the afternoon. The best
forcing associated W this disturbance will be across the N and
nw as some showers are expected. Decided to boost pops in these
areas to 20-30%. Rainfall will be light W amounts < 0.10". The
rest of the CWA should stay dry but remaining cool W a northerly
wind of 10-15 mph.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Chilly Wednesday night W some clearing as high pres starts
moving in from the w. Overnight temps are forecast to drop into
the mid and upper 30s across the N and w, while the rest of the
region will be seeing lower 40s.

Thursday looks to be a dry day for the most part W moderating
temps reaching into the 60s. There is an interesting feature
that is showing up on the last few runs of the long range
guidance that could affect portions of the southern areas later
Thursday into Thursday night. All the long range guidance is
picking up on this feature which looks to be some form of an
mcs that rolls out of the great lakes, and moves across nys and
then through southern new england W the threat for heavy rain.

The northern edge of the rain shield looks to move across
southern piscataquis and penobscot county and along the coast.

Decided to follow a blend of the guidance and brought 20-30% up
into the aforementioned areas during this timeframe. High pres
re-establishes itself across the region on Friday W temperatures
getting closer to normal. Clouds are expected to move into the
region Friday night ahead an approaching frontal system. This
system is shown by the long range guidance to move into the
region during the day on Saturday and bring some rain, which
looks to continue into Sunday. A quick look at the tstm
probabilitiesshows percentages to be quite low. So, decided to
leave any mention of thunder out of the forecast attm.

Temperatures for the memorial day weekend look to start out cool
for Saturday but could warm well into the 60s and possibly low
70s by the later part of the weekend.

Aviation 13z Monday through Friday
Near term: ifr to lifr conditions are likely today into tonight
in low clouds and some fog as the warm front lifts across the
area. Some thunderstorms are possible, mainly across the south.

Ifr conditions will likely persist across the north on Tuesday
with conditions improving to MVFR orVFR downeast.

Short term: MVFR ifr for the northern terminals for Tuesday
night while kbgr and kbhb seeing improving conditions toVFR.

MVFR looks like it will hang on for a time Wednesday mainly
north of khul W some showers. From khul to kbhb, conditions
look to beVFR.VFR looks to be the rule for all terminals
Wednesday night into Friday.

Marine
Near term: update 9:00 am: will update waves with 12z nwps.

A SCA for seas will be up for today and tonight for
the offshore waters for seas up to 5 ft. Winds will be near or
just below sca. Fog will likely limit visibilities today and
tonight as warmer and more humid air moves over the colder
waters. Seas should gradually begin to come down on Tuesday.

Short term: conditions could surge back up near SCA later
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as N winds increase to
15-20 kt sustained on the backside of the departing low. Gusts
could hit 25 kts. Winds are then forecast to drop back below 15
kts by Wednesday night and continue the downward trend into
Thursday. Seas are expected to remain below 6 ft. The latest run
of the local wave model supports this thinking by bringing the
highest seas close to 5 ft to the outer zones into Wednesday
morning. After that, seas look to subside back to 2 ft into
Friday.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am edt Tuesday
for anz050-051.

Near term... Mignone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 38 mi36 min 46°F 44°F1008.3 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 54 mi80 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 43°F5 ft1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bangor, Bangor International Airport, ME12 mi31 minS 63.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F50°F96%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from BGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SE54SE9SE8SE7S7S4S4SE4SE4SE4E4Calm4SE5NW4CalmCalmE3S5W3S6S6
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NE8N9N4CalmCalmW4S3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4Calm
2 days agoS5E6SE6S9S8S6SE7S5SE6SE3SE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W5W5W9N17
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Tide / Current Tables for Winterport, Penobscot River, Maine
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Winterport
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Mon -- 12:08 AM EDT     14.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     -1.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:46 PM EDT     12.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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14.213.611.68.34.51.3-0.8-1.3-0.12.96.71012.112.611.69.26.13.21.10.41.33.97.511

Tide / Current Tables for Hampden, Penobscot River, Maine
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Hampden
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT     15.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:59 AM EDT     -1.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:13 PM EDT     13.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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15.215.413.710.36.12.2-0.5-1.5-0.52.36.19.812.613.813.311.17.74.21.50.41.13.57.110.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.