Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Milton, VT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:23PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:03 AM EST (16:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:30PMMoonset 2:28AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton, VT
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location: 44.64, -73.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 181422
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
922 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Synopsis
Chilly temperatures expected today as high pressure builds in
over the north country. Our next chance for widespread organized
showers will be on Tuesday into Wednesday as an arctic front
sweeps through the north county bringing scattered snow showers
across the region. Behind that cold front we'll see well below
normal temperatures as we look forward to a rather chilly
thanksgiving holiday.

Near term through Monday
As of 921 am est Sunday... Adjusted temperature grids for the
good radiational cooling that occurred just before dawn.

Otherwise, temperatures are quickly coming back into line with
the previous forecast thinking. All else is on track. Have a
great day!
high pressure and clearing skies are the theme through mid day.

Cold air advection pushes into the region and brings -9c to
-12c 925mb temps. That will lead to daytime highs today only
warming into the mid 20s to low 30s. Warm air advection starts
pushing in late in the day as a fairly progressive upper level
trough digs south of the north country. There's an upper level
ribbon of vorticity that will be the forcing for some snow
showers across southern vermont and southern new england. The
best forcing and rh profiles show everything going south so from
about montpelier north we shouldn't see anything but across
rutland and windsor we should see some modest light snow with
accumulations ending in between a dusting to 2 inches in the
higher elevations. Highs with the warm air advection on Monday
should push into the mid to upper 30s which is still some 4-8
degrees below normal.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 412 am est Sunday... The short-term forecast period will
feature continued below normal temperatures as broadly cyclonic
flow continues in the 700-500mb layer from the great lakes
eastward into ny new england. It continues to appear that an
embedded positive tilt shortwave trough will induce sfc
cyclogenesis east of new jersey Tuesday morning, with weak sfc
low tracking toward CAPE cod and the islands during Tuesday
afternoon. Appears best low-level forcing UVV will remain south
of our region associated with the developing surface low. That
said, should see some developing light snow or snow showers with
passage of mid-level trough later Monday night across the st.

Lawrence valley with modest mid-level cva, and during the
daylight hours Tuesday from the northern adirondacks ewd. Snow
showers should generally exit east of the ct river valley by 21z
Tuesday, with narrow ridge of high pressure bringing dry
weather conditions and potentially good radiational cooling for
Tuesday night.

Snowfall during late Monday night Tuesday will be rather light,
generally ranging from a dusting to 2", with the best potential for
1-2" totals across the northern adirondacks and north-central into
northeastern vt.

Developing overcast skies will yield relatively uniform low
temperatures in the mid-20s for Monday night, with Tuesday's highs
mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows Tuesday night will likely
fall into the teens areawide, except locally near 20f very near lake
champlain.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 412 am est Sunday... Appears the coldest air mass of the
season thus far will move into the north country in time for
thanksgiving day, with highs only in the teens to lower 20s and
nw winds of 15-25 mph contributing to wind chill readings near
zero. Preceding this will be the passage of the arctic front,
expected during the daylight hours Wednesday. Strong low-mid
level winds, moisture advection entrainment from the great
lakes, and strong low-level convergence along the front will
bring the potential for snow showers and possible organized snow
squalls accompanying the frontal passage Wednesday afternoon.

May result in brief periods of vsby below 1 4 mile, and will
need to monitor this potential with Wednesday being a major
holiday travel day. The 1000-500mb thickness values fall to
495dm with -20c 850mb temps by 12z thanksgiving morning
following the front per both 00z GFS and 00z ecmwf. Looking for
low temps in the single digits above zero thanksgiving morning,
except lower teens very near lake champlain. High pressure
builds in on Thursday night and Friday, with continued cold
temperatures but lighter wind conditions. Air mass should
moderate slightly, with Friday's highs mainly in the low- mid
20s. May finally see a pattern change next weekend with coldest
air upper trough lifting out, and light s-sw return flow
developing. Looking for highs in the mid 30s for Saturday, and
possibly upper 30s lower 40s for Sunday. Early indications
suggest much of the weekend will be dry.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
Through 12z Monday... GenerallyVFR under clearing skies through
the TAF period trending towards MVFR as clouds move in Sunday
night. Winds initially west southwesterly from 6-10 kts,
shifting west to northwesterly 5 to 10 kts behind the boundary
in the 21-00z time frame before abating to light and variable
after by 09-12z. Latest satellite imagery shows clearing slowly
moving in from the west and all sites should see partial
clearing by 12-15z. Late in the day some scattered snow shower
will move into rut and produce reduced visibilities and
ceilings but with the scattered nature of the showers I haven't
included prevailing lowered visibilities.

Outlook...

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance shsn.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shsn.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shsn.

Thanksgiving day:VFR. No sig wx.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Deal
near term... Deal haynes
short term... Banacos
long term... Banacos
aviation... Deal


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT12 mi70 minENE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F14°F60%1029.6 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY20 mi71 minN 410.00 miFair22°F14°F71%1029.5 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT21 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair21°F19°F93%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W8W8W5W8N5N9NW6NW12NW6NW9N10NW13NW10N12N8NW7NW6N3E5E4CalmNE4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmS3SE3S5S5SW4S3S3CalmS3W4W6CalmW4W3W5W8S4SW7
2 days agoSW7S3SE5S4SE6SE7SE6SE5SE6E5SE4SE6SE6E8E3SE12CalmN4N7CalmCalmSE3E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Sun -- 01:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:20 AM EST     0.54 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:58 AM EST     0.56 meters High Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:17 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:07 PM EST     0.55 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.50.50.50.60.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.