Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Suamico, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:29PM Saturday July 22, 2017 5:51 AM CDT (10:51 UTC) Moonrise 4:37AMMoonset 7:52PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 306 Am Cdt Sat Jul 22 2017
Today..E wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..E wind 5 to 10 kts, veering sw after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..NW wind 5 to 10 kts, veering N 10 to 15 kts in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly cloudy.
LMZ522 Expires:201707221630;;636066 FZUS53 KGRB 220806 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 306 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-221630-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Suamico, WI
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location: 44.66, -87.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 220752
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
252 am cdt Sat jul 22 2017
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Sunday
issued at 251 am cdt Sat jul 22 2017
the main forecast focus to be on the severe potential later this
afternoon early evening across most of the forecast area with
regards to a mid-level shortwave trough approaching, along with a
cold front.

The 07z msas surface analysis showed one area of low pressure over
west-central ia attached to a quasi-stationary front that extends
east-southeast into central sections of illinois and indiana.

Another area of low pressure was located over central sd along a
cold front that stretched from east of lake winnipeg into the
central high plains. The radar mosaic painted several areas of
convection to our south and west associated with each frontal
boundary.

Models are pretty consistent in moving a shortwave trough from
lake winnipeg northern plains southeast into the upper ms valley
today. If clouds can dissipate enough, potential exists for
stronger instability to develop over north-central central wi with
mucapes in the 2k to 3k j kg range this afternoon. Couple this
instability with deep shear (0-6km values around 40 knots) and
ample low-level moisture (dew points in the upper 60s), and we
could have a few storms approach severe limits this afternoon into
the evening. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary
threats, although locally heavy rains cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, the rest of northeast wi to see a warm and humid day
with MAX temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees north
near lake mi, mainly lower 80s south.

The shortwave trough, accompanied by the cold front, will reach
the great lakes tonight. The severe risk would gradually diminish
during the evening hours as daytime heating wanes and instability
weakens. Expect to see showers thunderstorms move across the
forecast area this evening and gradually decrease from west to
east once the cold front exits overnight. Look for at least
partial clearing over central east-central wi later tonight,
however the cyclonic flow in the vicinity of the shortwave trough
would tend to keep more clouds over the north through the night.

Despite the partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, plan to add
some patchy fog due to light winds and lingering low-level
moisture still in place. Min temperatures to range from the upper
50s to around 60 degrees north-central, to the middle 60s east-
central wi.

Small precipitation chances are in the forecast for Sunday,
especially over eastern wi, as the shortwave trough continues to
gradually move toward the eastern great lakes. Enough cool air
aloft, combined with daytime heating, may steepen lapse rates
sufficiently to allow for at least a slight chance of showers
thunderstorms over northeast wi. Sunday will be a cooler day with
improving humidity levels. Look for MAX temperatures to be only
around 70 degrees far north, around 80 degrees far south.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
issued at 251 am cdt Sat jul 22 2017
long term forecast highlights include dry weather to start and
end the week, but a period of active weather in between with a
least one shot at strong severe storms. Forecast challenge will be
to pin down timing of best precip storm chances. Temperatures look
to start off a little below normal early in the week, then above
normal for mid-week, but no significant cool down or heat waves
in sight.

Any lingering showers storms early Sunday evening will quickly
come to an end with the loss of daytime heating and the mid-upper
trough exiting to the east. Look for clouds to clear out (slowest
over the far northeast as flow over lake superior could keep
clouds around into early Monday) and dewpoints to fall through
the night, leading to a cool night over northern wi with the
typical cool spots dropping into the 40s. Lows in the 50s are
expected across the rest of the area.

A dry and comfortable day is expected on Monday as surface high
pressure slides across the great lakes and mid-upper level ridging
builds in from the northern plains. Dry conditions will continue
into Tuesday morning has the high ridging moves into the eastern
great lakes.

Medium range models last night focused the next chance for storms
in the overnight Tuesday Wednesday timeframe, but latest 2 runs
of the GFS gem have sped things up, bringing storm chances in
late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the next frontal and
upper level systems approach the area. ECMWF still the slowest
solution, and brings a couple rounds of storms (Tuesday night and
again on Wednesday). Since there is still some timing
differences and no favorite, will continue to use a model blend
for pops, which brings in chances across central and north central
wi late Tuesday afternoon, then for the entire area Tuesday
evening night. Current timing of the GFS gem would have much of
the precip out of the area by noon Wednesday. But will linger pops
across east central wi, especially in the morning, to account for
any trend back to the slower ECMWF solution. If the front slows
down enough, a round of strong severe storms would be possible
Wednesday afternoon. Plenty of specifics still to be determined as
timing of the front will play a major role on how unstable we
will get and when it occurs. Gfs ECMWF showing 1000-2000 j kg
ahead of the front, with 0-6km bulk shear of at least 25-35 kts
(closer to 50 kts if you believe the GFS late Tuesday). So there
will be a severe weather threat, but with the timing issues, and
possible instability issues with any convection leftovers from
Tuesday night, hard to get too specific at this point.

Model consensus is to push the front far enough south of the area
Wednesday night through Friday as high pressure builds across the
northern plains. This will keep any precip associated with the
front out of the area, so will go with a dry forecast. Gem tries
to sneak the front back toward the area late in the week, but the
gfs ECMWF keep it well south of the area. Favor the later idea and
will keep a dry forecast going into next weekend.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1117 pm cdt Fri jul 21 2017
as expected weakening convective complex will briefly impact rhi
with MVFR CIGS and perhaps a rumble of thunder around midnight.

Should remain mostly dry withVFR to MVFR CIGS over eastern
sections of the forecast area. Although confidence not as high as
earlier, still could see some low stratus formation across mainly
central wisconsin possibly impacting CWA and auw TAF sites aft
09z with generally ifr CIGS that may persist until 14 utc
Saturday. CIGS should gradually improve toVFR after about 18z.

Upper-level shortwave and approaching cold front is expected to
initiate a broken band of showers and thunderstorms that may
impact northcentral wisconsin TAF sites with MVFR CIGS and vsbys
around 00z Sunday, then eastcentral sections after about 03z
Sunday.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kallas
long term... ... Bersch
aviation... ... .Esb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45014 14 mi52 min S 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 73°F1009.6 hPa (-1.5)
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi52 min ESE 4.1 G 8 68°F 1009 hPa (-2.0)
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 36 mi52 min S 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 1009.7 hPa (-0.5)62°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 49 mi72 min Calm G 1.9 69°F 1009.5 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Green Bay, Austin Straubel International Airport, WI16 mi59 minN 010.00 miOvercast67°F64°F91%1009 hPa

Wind History from GRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmS3S5S3S4--W4SW4CalmS3SW5S4S7CalmCalmCalmS6S5S7S5SE4Calm
1 day agoW8W8W9W10W10W12W12NW8NW10NW10NW7NW10W6W3W3CalmCalmW3W3NW5S4SW3NW3Calm
2 days ago--N5N3NE4NE5NE94NE7CalmCalmW4S4S5S5S9SE9E10E3S4SW5S3SW7W8W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.