Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Suamico, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:02PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 11:51 AM CDT (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:45AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 954 Am Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S wind to 30 kts with a few higher gusts possible. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Sunny.
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gale force gusts to around 35 kts veering W 10 to 15 kts after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Mostly clear.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunny.
Thursday night..SW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Clear.
LMZ522 Expires:201710182215;;045215 FZUS53 KGRB 181454 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 954 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-182215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Suamico, WI
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location: 44.66, -87.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 180810
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
310 am cdt Wed oct 18 2017
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Synopsis
Issued at 307 am cdt Wed oct 18 2017
warm and quiet weather for the rest of the work week, though it
will be quite windy at times. Turning cooler by early next week.

A very energetic band of low-amplitude westerlies was across
canada and the far northern conus. The pattern will undergo some
amplification during the remainder of the work week, with a trough
forming near the west coast and increased ridging over the great
lakes region. Additional changes will quickly follows as a much
stronger trough develops out near 160w. That will flip the
downstream pattern to one with a ridge near the west coast and
troughing over the great lakes region by early next week.

Temperatures 10 to 20 f degrees above normal are expected into
the upcoming weekend, then readings will drop back much closer to
seasonal normals by early next week. The best chance for rain
will be with a frontal system crossing the area this weekend, but
that system seems unlikely to bring substantial rains, so amounts
are likely to end up below normal for the period.

Short term Today... Tonight... And Thursday
issued at 307 am cdt Wed oct 18 2017
quiet weather is expected throughout the period as a series of
strong cyclones track east across canada. It will be windy at
times. The main forecast issue is temperatures. Guidance was too
cool yesterday and looks too cool the next couple days as well.

Went with maxes for today that were a couple degrees above
yesterdays observed values at most locations. Thursday won't be
quite as warm as a cool front trailing from one of the canadian
cyclones will cross the area tonight. But highs are still expected
to be above normal. The forecast pressure gradient and some caa
suggest it's less likely low-levels will decouple completely
tonight. So shaved a couple degrees off mins in the typical cool
spots, but don't expect the drop we've seen at some locations this
morning.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
issued at 307 am cdt Wed oct 18 2017
unseasonably warm weather will continue on Friday and into
Saturday (not as warm due to cloud cover chances of rain).

Highs on Friday will be around 20 degrees above normal
away from the bay and lake, but just shy of the record high
for the date at this point. Have raised high temperatures on
Friday per coordination with surrounding offices.

Still some timing differences among the models with arrival
of the rain and when the cold front will pass through the area
over the weekend. Latest GFS wrf model depict precipitation
breaking out with the southerly flow on Saturday, with main
precipitation with the cold front Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. Yesterday, the ECMWF was the slowest model
with the passage of the cold front. The 00z run tonight
has sped up this system. Best available of capes were between
200 and 400 j kg. Will continue the small chances of thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon and evening. Mid level lapse rates were pretty
steep. The cold front will move away from the area Sunday
afternoon, bringing drier conditions to the region. Next system
approaches from the northwest late Sunday night, bringing another
chance of showers Monday into Monday night.

A significant change in the weather pattern is expected by the
end of next week. Northwest flow will become established across
the area, bringing an end to the unusually mild october weather.

In reality, temperatures will return closer to normal next week,
which will be a shock due to the expected warm weather this week.

Aviation For 12z TAF issuance
issued at 307 am cdt Wed oct 18 2017
gusty surface winds today will probably be the most significant
aviation weather issue during the next 24 hours. Still expect
mainly just cirrus for clouds, though model rh progs have some
moisture around 850 mb so it's possible some lower clouds could
form. Still expect bases to beVFR though. The ongoing llws will
ease this morning as mixing deepens and surface winds increase and
become gusty. Llws will redevelop late this afternoon in the east
as the boundary layer decouples. But weakening wind aloft and caa
should result in llws easing overnight.

Marine
Issued at 307 am cdt Wed oct 18 2017
opted to keep the sc.Y rather than upgrade to a gl.W. Some gale
force gusts are still likely, but it does not look as though they
will be widespread persistent enough to warrant a gale warning.

Modis satellite imagery indicated water temperatures over the nsh
waters were in the middle to upper 50s, so low-levels will be
stable as the strongest winds move through aloft.

Persistent strong southwest winds are likely to result in high
waves on lake michigan Friday into Sunday morning.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... ... .Skowronski
short term... ..Skowronski
long term... ... Eckberg
aviation... ... .Skowronski
marine... ... ... Skowronski eckberg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45014 14 mi52 min SSW 14 G 18 59°F 58°F1014 hPa (-1.5)
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi52 min S 15 G 18 57°F 1014.6 hPa (-1.6)
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 36 mi52 min S 15 G 20 59°F 1014 hPa (-0.9)47°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Green Bay, Austin Straubel International Airport, WI16 mi59 minS 14 G 2110.00 miFair61°F48°F65%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from GRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW8SW10SW8S9S6S4S4S4S4S3S4SW7S9S7S6S7S7S6S7S7S11S15
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1 day agoSW12SW11SW10SW10SW9SW5S5S6S4S5S7S8--SW8S7S8SW6SW7S5SW5SW4SW6SW10W9
2 days agoNW15N12NW8NW10NW11NW8W7NW8W7W5SW3SW4SW5SW5W5W6W4W6W5S3CalmSW4W4W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.