Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Parc, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:12PM Thursday March 23, 2017 6:09 PM EDT (22:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:19AMMoonset 2:21PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1031 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy early...then becoming mostly cloudy.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Snow and freezing rain in the morning...then rain and freezing rain in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Rain in the evening...then snow and rain overnight.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Rain and snow likely during the day...then a chance of snow and rain Saturday night.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Snow and rain.
Monday..East winds 10 knots or less. Rain and snow likely during the day...then a chance of rain and freezing rain Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Parc, NY
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location: 44.68, -73.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 231947
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
347 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
Clear skies will give way to increasing clouds and the threat
of light snows by tomorrow morning as a warm front pushes into
the area. Mixed precipitation or rain will be likely on and off
into the coming weekend as this front waffles south and north
across the region. Temperatures will moderate back toward more
seasonal late march values through the period.

Near term /through Friday night/
As of 306 pm edt Thursday... A nice rebound in temperatures
under full Sun has occurred this afternoon as northwesterly flow
slowly diminishes with modifying arctic high pressure sprawled
across the eastern seaboard. Kbtv has hit 32f as of 230 pm. For
tonight clear skies will slowly give way to thickening and
lowering mid and upper level clouds as we progress after
midnight as winds trend light. An approaching warm frontal
system will be approaching from the south and west during this
time frame and the leading edge of its precipitation shield will
begin to encroach into our far western counties toward sunrise
Friday in the form of light snows. Temperatures will bottom out
early given the clear skies (5 to 15 above in the
mountains/teens to lower 20s valleys) but will trend steady or
slowly rise overnight as clouds arrive and light southerly
return flow develops.

A messy day then on tap for Friday as the warm front marches
into the region under strengthening southerly flow and
widespread mixed precipitation. Some channeling effects likely
in the champlain valley where gusts to near 30 mph look
plausible at this point. Boundary layer to mid level thermal
profiles will be critical in determining eventual p-type as
widespread light snows slowly transition to a mix of snow/sleet
and eventual rain from the champlain valley west. P-type should
hold more in the form of snow and/or a mix of snow/sleet across
much of east central and northeastern vt where mid level warming
will be less and colder near surface layers will be harder to
scour out. Mixed precipitation top down methodology using a
variety of model output continues to support the idea of little
in the way of freezing rain with this feature, which appears
reasonable seeing the primary mid-level warm layer generally
runs in the 0-3c range through 21z. Experience would suggest
however at least some patchy -fzra may occur here and there
through the morning hours. Front end snow totals should
generally run in the 0.5 to 2 inch range, with slightly higher
totals from 1.5 to 4 inches likely across east central and
northeastern vt. Given the front end light snows will inhibit
any pavement icing and only low probabilities of a few
hundredths of ice accumulation are suggested (if any) will hold
off on issuing any advisories at this point. Late day high
temperatures should range from the lower to mid 30s east and
north, and the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.

By Friday night widespread light rains (or mixed precipitation
north and east) will gradually wane over time as best warm
thermal advection lessens. Later at night models continue to
suggest building high pressure to our north will push the front
back southward into the area with flow transitioning to a light
northerly regime by daybreak Saturday. This will tend to shunt
the precipitation shield southward as well as coverage/intensity
lessens. Some lingering light rains/mixed precipitation/light
snows will remain possible though settle generally into our
southern counties by morning. Lows a bit tricky though with
expected abundance of clouds upper 20s to lower 30s looks
reasonable for most spots.

Short term /Saturday through Saturday night/
As of 338 pm edt Thursday... .For Saturday and Saturday night
frontal boundary will remain draped across our forecast area.

This means that threat for mixed precipitation will continue
through the short term period. Large area of high pressure will
push south out of canada on Saturday and push frontal boundary
south of our region. Precipitation will also push south of the
area and we will be in the cold sector on the north side of the
front. During the second half of Saturday night frontal boundary
lifts back up over the area and will be situated across
northern new york and vermont. Despite odd frontal boundary
drifting south of the area then back across our area the
temperatures Saturday and Saturday night will be very near to
seasonal normals. We will have a little bit of rain across our
southern zones on Saturday, then some mixed precipitation as the
boundary lifts back northward Saturday night with some snow,
sleet, and freezing rain.

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/
As of 346 pm edt Thursday... Aforementioned frontal boundary
remains over northern new york from Sunday through Monday. More
mixed precipitation is expected as thermal boundary is stacked
up right over us. Upper level low pressure system and strong
upper level shortwave cross the region later Sunday into Sunday
night, and still pushing eastward across our CWA on Monday.

Precipitation will finally end Monday night. But, will only be a
short break in the action with another low pressure system
approaching for Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately with
freezing lines staying very close to our forecast area, we will
mostly have rain with these systems but need to also continue to
monitor potential for trouble with mixed precipitation as well,
freezing rain and sleet. Tough to find a dry period over the
next week with very active weather and borderline temperatures
causing lots of forecasting challenges.

Aviation /20z Thursday through Tuesday/
Through 18z Friday...VFR through 12z as high pressure gives way
to approaching warm front and associated precipitation. Skc
expected through 00z, then slowly thickening/loweringVFR ovc in
the 00z to 12z time frame. Winds light/modest northwesterly
through 00z, trending light overnight. After 12z Friday
widespread snow overspreads all terminals, likely transitioning
to a snow/sleet/rain mix from champlain valley terminals west
toward the end of this forecast cycle. Winds trending southerly
5 to 15 knots, most pronounced at kbtv/kpbg where valley
channeling effects may push gusts near 25 kts.

Outlook 18z Friday through Tuesday...

18z Friday through 18z Saturday... Widespread light mixed
precipitationlikely, slowly settling southward and lessening in
coverage by Saturday afternoon affecting mainly southern
terminals at that point. Highest threat of mix to occur at
northern terminals.

18z Saturday through 12z Sunday... Trending mainlyVFR
/precipitation-free as canadian high pressure noses briefly
southward into the area.

12z Sunday through 12z Tuesday... Widespread mixed precipitation
and/or rain return to the region.

12z Tuesday onward... Light and spotty mixed precipitation
transitions toward a period of steadier rains by Wednesday.

Btv watches/warnings/advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg
short term... Neiles
long term... Neiles
aviation... Jmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY4 mi77 minWNW 7 G 1410.00 miFair35°F0°F22%1031.7 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT20 mi76 minN 1010.00 miA Few Clouds33°F3°F29%1031.9 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT24 mi75 minNW 510.00 miFair31°F3°F31%1032.2 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8
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NW7W4SW3W4NW5W3NW3W3W4CalmSW3345
G14
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1 day agoS3CalmCalmCalmS4S6CalmNW12
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G20
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.