Thursday, January18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Plattsburgh, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 4:45PM Thursday January 18, 2018 12:30 AM EST (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:18AMMoonset 7:24PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1223 Pm Est Sun Dec 31 2017
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Clear.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed to navigation for the season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plattsburgh, NY
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location: 44.69, -73.44     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 180026
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
726 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Light snow, mainly over southern and eastern vt, will be
ending this evening. A westerly flow of air with near normal
temperatures will follow with a few light snow showers through
the end of the week along with a general warming trend going
into the weekend. Our next storm system will arrive early next
week with a mix of precipitation.

Near term through Thursday night
As of 656 pm est Wednesday... The upper level trough is crossing
through the region and the snow is slowly coming to an end
across portions on the north country. Expect that to continue
with snow ending across vermont in the next couple of hours.

There will be some light lake effect across portions of the
northern adirondacks but accumulations should be minimal.

Previous discussion... The flow will become increasingly
westerly with low-level cold advection as 925mb temps fall to
-10 or slightly cooler overnight. Steepening lapse rates with
some light lake effect snow east and northeast of lake ontario
tonight through tomorrow. Southern saint lawrence and franklin
counties in new york could pick up a dusting out of the band by
Thursday night. An upper level trof may enhance the lake effect
snow showers or flurries elsewhere as it moves quickly through
the region Thursday night.

Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal through Thursday night
with highs generally in the 20s and lows in the high single
digits to teens tonight under partly clear skies.

Short term Friday through Friday night
As of 400 pm est Wednesday... Looks rather uneventful weather
wise as we end the work week. Low mid level flow starts to veer
to the southwest. This will start to bring in some warmer air
aloft, which in turn will probably keep skies mostly cloudy from
isentropic lift at mid levels. Models do suggest a few light
snow showers coming off lake ontario during the first half of
the day, before warming air aloft stops that process. Could see
a residual flurry or snow shower in the st lawrence valley
through mid-day. Otherwise expecting dry conditions, with
temperatures topping out in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Should
be quiet Friday night as well, though perhaps a light flurry
close to the canadian border where moisture will be a bit
deeper. Lows won't go down too far, generally 20s, with ongoing
warm air advection and clouds.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 400 pm est Wednesday... 12z runs of the GFS and ecmwf
weren't too different with the overall large scale scenario, but
differ with the smaller, but still significant details. Still
looking at a fairly significant low pressure system to move
through the region in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. Still
looking warm enough that we will be dealing with a mixed
precipitation event, rather than all snow. But it's not going to
be warm enough to have an all rain event either. Stuck close
with the overall model blend, but did raise low temperatures a
little bit for Monday night. A few notes with regard to each day

Saturday: westerly and relatively mild flow. Looks like 850mb
temperatures surge above 0c, though the warm air doesn't fully come
in below that level. Still looking like lower 40s for highs are in
the cards. Could be a bit breezy (gusts 20-25mph) at times as well.

Not looking for any precipitation. Late in the day or evening, it
appears a weak cold front will move into the region.

Sunday: some conflicting temperature signals in the guidance. Ecmwf
shows some chilly air pooling up just north of the border, while the
gfs keeps it much further north. With light northwest flow, it's
possible we'll see some of that colder air ooze southward,
especially down the champlain valley, and keep highs only in the
lower 30s. Both 12z models have trended a little cooler than their
counterparts on previous runs. Thus the blended approach I used
which gives highs in the upper 30s north to lower 40s south may be a
bit too warm. Still looks to be mostly dry in either case.

Monday Tuesday: still timing differences between models, with gfs
running 6-12 hours faster, but the idea is still similar to our
previous forecast. Namely a fairly deep low will move across the
great lakes and into ontario sometime early Tuesday. Ahead of this
low, clouds and chances for precipitation will increase during the
day Monday. Both models are now indicating there will be a secondary
surface low develop along a cold front and ride up over our region
on Tuesday. With this secondary low, that means the warmer air at
lower levels will have a harder time of really coming in force and
scouring out the low level cold air. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest
a widespread mixed precipitation event, with a general light snow to
start, a good amount of sleet and perhaps areas of freezing rain in
the middle, and ending as snow later Tuesday or Tuesday night. Given
the increasing likelihood of such a messy scenario, I used a blend
of a warmer GFS and colder ECMWF to drive the precipitation-type
determination rather than keep to a simple rain snow type forecast.

Don't put too much stock in exactly when snow or sleet or rain may
occur in any specific location as forecasts will change a lot
between now and then. If there is any good side, a colder solution
means less of a hydro worry due to rain and snowmelt given the ice
jams in place. High temperatures will most likely only top out in
the 30s.

Wednesday: no real cold air behind the system, so expecting
seasonable conditions with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. Can't rule
out a few snow showers here or there.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Through 00z Friday... Currently experiencing areas of ifr across
southeastern however that should come to an end shortly. Expect
improvement from ifr MVFR by 02z at all sites with the
exception of slk mss where low level moisture will be trapped
below an advancing inversion layer leading to MVFR and possible
ir ceilings overnight. Winds will generally be light and
variably overnight except at slk and mss where southwest of 10
to 20 knots will develop along with gusts of up to 25kts
continuing into Thursday.


Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance shsn.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight
chance shsn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance shra,
slight chance shsn.

Sunday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Slight chance shsn.

Monday: MVFR. Chance shsn, chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Sisson
near term... Deal sisson
short term... Nash
long term... Banacos nash
aviation... Deal sisson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY3 mi37 minSW 10 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy20°F10°F65%1018.1 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT21 mi36 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy19°F12°F74%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN4N3N3CalmCalmN4N5N5N3CalmNE3E3NE3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmS5S5SW10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE5N8N6N5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalm4NW3W4W3W3SW3CalmCalmNE3NE4N4N4NE5N5N4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.