Saturday, August18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Plattsburgh, NY

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Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:55PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:39 AM EDT (04:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:09PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1031 Pm Edt Fri Aug 17 2018
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers early.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Sunny.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Monday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Occasional showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers during the day. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plattsburgh, NY
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location: 44.69, -73.44     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 180218
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1018 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018

A slow moving cold front and associated area of low pressure will
produce occasional showers with embedded thunderstorms overnight
into early Saturday morning. Localized areas of heavy rainfall is
likely tonight, before drier air slowly filters into the area by
Saturday afternoon. Clouds and showers will taper off from north to
south across the region on Saturday morning, with some peeks of
sunshine developing during the afternoon hours. A mainly dry and
mild day is expected on Sunday with temperatures warming back into
the 70s to near 80.

Near term through Saturday night
As of 1008 pm edt Friday... Seeing a bit of a lull in the shower
activity over much of the north country at this hour. However,
anticipate another round of precipitation as convection
currently over eastern lake ontario moves into our forecast
area. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well through
midnight or so, but best thunder threat will remain to our south
overnight. Briefly heavy rain will continue to be a threat as
well as pwats ahead of the front remain around 2 inches. Have
made some adjustments to pops and weather according to the above
thinking and the latest radar trends. The remainder of the
forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed.

Previous discussion... First band of rain has moved thru most of
our cwa, now watching some clearing instability developing
across the southern slv into southern cpv and parts of southern
vt. Sfc temps are quickly warming back into the upper 70s to
near 80 with laps sfc based CAPE increasing btwn 800-1000 j kg.

Expect this axis of instability to be focus for additional
showers and storms to develop this aftn evening. Given very
moist sounding profiles and progged 850mb winds of 30 to 40
knots, the stronger convective cores will have the potential for
isolated gusty winds. Still thinking our window for
strong severe is only a few hours late this aftn, before
instability decreases and threat changes to localized heavy
rainfall, as storms evolve into multi-cellular.

Water vapor shows initial ribbon of moisture and weak 5h vort
lifting across northern new england, while stronger energy with
closed 5h circulation is approaching the eastern great lakes.

This potent short wave energy will ride along sfc boundary and
interact with pws >2.0 to produce occasional showers with
embedded storms overnight. Soundings continue to show a modest
tall skinny CAPE profile with values btwn 300-600 j kg and li's
of -1 to -3c across our region, which will be enough to mention
thunder into the overnight hours. Still noticing strong 850 to
700mb theta E axis across our CWA tonight, along with nose of
850mb jet of 30 to 35 knots, while dual jet couplet is present
at 250mb. These parameters combined with sfc convergence with
slow moving boundary and weak low pres crossing our northern
cwa, will continue to mention threat for localized heavy
rainfall overnight. Difficult to determine if rate of rainfall
will be high enough to cause issues, but idea of widespread 0.50
to 1.0 looks reasonable with localized amounts near 2.0
possible. Soundings show plenty of low level moisture between
sfc and 850mb overnight, supporting the idea of developing low
clouds and potential areas of fog br in protected valleys after
the rain departs. Fog br will be from moisture advection and
saturated low levels based on profiles. Given the clouds precip
expecting uniformed temps overnight with lows in the 60s.

Some change to Saturday, with regards to lingering precip thru the
morning hours and clouds into the aftn. The combination of upper
level trof overhead and axis of deep layer moisture located across
our CWA at 12z, supports the mention of likely to cat pops,
especially from the dacks into most of vt thru 15z. Also, fropa
timing is delayed by several hours, as boundary parallels the
mid upper level flow. The threat for thunderstorm will be limited on
sat morning, as instability parameters are weak, but embedded areas
of moderate rain are possible, with pw values still btwn 1.75 to 2.0
before fropa. Temps on Sat will be tricky given complex thermal
profiles due to low level CAA and timing of clearing. Progged 850mb
temps near 12c support highs upper 60s to mid 70s most locations.

Saturday night... 1018mb high pres slowly builds into our CWA from
southern canada, with some gradient noted in pres fields. In
addition, progged 850mb winds are still btwn 20 and 30 knots thru
06z Sunday, so areal coverage of fog br will be in the
deeper protected valleys of the dacks and central eastern vt. Will
place in climo favored locales with temps falling back into the
upper 40s to lower 60s depending upon location.

Short term Sunday
As of 340 pm edt Friday... Overall, quiet weather is expected
for the short term period across most of the area. Surface high
pressure begins to build in behind departing cold front on
Saturday. Still a few pieces of energy traveling through the
upper-level flow, but with limited moisture through the column
mostly anticipating just some clouds to develop. Winds will be
out of the E on Sunday, so it will be possible to get a few
orographic showers across eastern vt thus, have continued the
mention of just a slight chance across the higher terrain. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 70s to upper 70s with
a few locations, especially out in the st. Lawrence valley,
likely reaching 80... .Lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

Looking towards the end of the extended, 12z run of the ecmwf
continues to be the most robust with precipitation associated with a
weak low developing along the southern shores of long island
overnight Sunday into Monday... Model consensus on the amount of
moisture available with the system is limited so at this time have
trended away from the ECMWF solution. Run to run consistency on the
strength of this feature has varied since it's initial inception on
yesterday's 12z run. If this feature does pan out as the ecmwf
suggests, overall impacts will be some clouds and light showers
across southern vt with precipitation amounts less than 0.10".

Long term Sunday night through Friday
As of 340 pm edt Friday... With surface ridging across new
england, Monday should be a nice day with mostly sunny skies and
high temperatures in the low 80s. Overnight, clouds will begin
to increase as our next system approaches from the west. Things
are beginning to look like a strong, sub-1000 mb low will track
north into quebec out of the great lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this time, were watching the potential for some
gusty winds with this storm. A strong 35-40 kt 850 jet develops
Tuesday night, but cloud cover and precipitation could limit the
extent that these winds will mix down. With limited amounts of
instability (despite plenty of available shear) it does not look
like severe weather will be a threat at this time. After this
system, high pressure dominates across the eastern half of the
us. The remainder of the work week is shaping up to be nice and
sunny with high temperatures slightly above normal through the
period (Thursday: upper 70s - around 80; upper 50s - around 60,
Friday: low 80s; mid 60s).

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
Through 00z Sunday...VFR MVFR conditions will prevail through
06z Saturday or so with scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the region. Brief ifr will be possible as well. More
widespread ifr conditions. Soundings show low level moisture
quickly increasing between after 04z tonight, with ceilings
becoming ifr at all terminals 07z-10z, lingering through 12z-
14z Saturday. Then ceilings will lift to MVFR and eventuallyVFR
by late in the period.


Saturday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday:VFR. No sig wx.

Sunday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely shra.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Another several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected overnight with localized heavy rainfall likely as pw
values are near 2.0 inches. First round early this aftn produced
rainfall btwn one and three tenths of an inch. While we are not
expecting widespread main river stem flooding, isolated very
high rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible in
localized areas with any stronger thunderstorm cores. These high
rainfall rates could produce sharp rises on smaller streams and
rivers, along with the potential for isolated flash flooding,
especially in mountainous terrain or poor drainage urban areas.

Basin average rainfall of 0.50 to 1.5 inches is expected, with
localized amounts up to 3 inches possible in areas that receive
multiple rounds of storms. Those mesoscale details are difficult
to determine more than a few hrs in advance. We will monitor
convective trends into the evening hours.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Taber
near term... Hastings taber
short term... Larocca
long term... Larocca
aviation... Hastings taber
hydrology... Taber banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 6 mi39 min 70°F 76°F1009 hPa (+0.0)
45166 12 mi24 min N 7.8 G 12 76°F 77°F71°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY3 mi46 minN 02.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist71°F70°F96%1009.4 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT21 mi45 minS 810.00 miOvercast74°F71°F91%1009.3 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S3S3S9S9
1 day agoW3W4NW3CalmCalmN4N4N7N7N9NW10
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE4SE9SE9SE11SE7CalmN8E6NE4E4S5CalmCalmSW3SW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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