Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plattsburgh, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 4:23PM Monday November 19, 2018 6:38 PM EST (23:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 3:33AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 331 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of snow showers late.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Snow likely through early afternoon, then a chance of snow showers late.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers likely.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clearing.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 10 knots or less. Mainly clear.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plattsburgh, NY
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location: 44.69, -73.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 192032
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
332 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure passing through the mid atlantic states into
southern new england will produce a light accumulating snowfall
later tonight into Tuesday, mainly across southeastern vermont.

A strong arctic front will cross the area on Wednesday with
numerous snow showers and heavier snow squalls. Behind this
front the coldest air of the early season arrives for the
thanksgiving holiday. Temperatures moderate by next weekend with
chances for light rains and snows returning to the region.

Near term through Tuesday night
As of 310 pm est Monday... A nice afternoon continues to unfold
across the area with partial sunshine in a number of spots and
temperatures climbing well into the 30s to lower 40s under light
winds. We continue to monitor a developing wave of low pressure
across the lower ohio valley which is progged to track east-
northeast into the northern mid atlantic overnight and across
southern new england during the day on Tuesday. The best qg
forcing and mid level lift moisture convergence should set up in
a band across central new england, just south of our forecast
area. Nonetheless, enough confidence exists to continue with a
steady light snowfall across our eastern and southern vt
counties later tonight through about midday on Tuesday where
accumulations should range from 1-3" north and 2-4" across the
southern greens into southern orange windsor counties. Further
north and west snow shower and or light snow activity should not
be as organized, though with boundary layer flow trending
northwesterly over time as the low treks east some broad
blossoming in activity is expected here as well where
accumulations will range from a dusting to perhaps 2 inches by
days end from the champlain valley into northern ny. An
abundance of cloud cover, light winds and near- neutral
advective processes should keep temperatures fairly uniform over
the next 24 hours with lows tonight holding mainly in the 20s
and highs on Tuesday from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

By Tuesday night snow shower activity should wane considerably as
weak default ridging traverses the region behind the departing low.

Variable clouds continue with some breaks at times, especially
across central southern vt. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler -
mainly mid teens to lower 20s.

Short term Wednesday through Wednesday night
As of 310 pm est Monday... An active period of weather then
returns for Wednesday as a strong early season arctic cold front
surges through the region. Adding complexity to the forecast
will be a rather potent shortwave riding east-southeast along
the boundary. Impressive pva, boundary layer omega and an 8-10
mb 3hr pressure rise fall couplet will likely accompany this
feature as it tracks through or just north of the adirondacks
into vt by early afternoon. Hi-res btv snow squall parameter
shows a favorable set-up for heavier squalls on the nose of a
35-45kt northwesterly wind surge in the 925-850 mb layer. Most
favorable area to experience squalls appears to set up across
the dacks into central southern ny and into central southern vt,
but given continued variability in the shortwave track among
this morning's model output (some show it tracking along the
intl. Border) i've introduced potential squall activity area-
wide for now. Given the quick moving nature of the front and
shortwave our forecast snowfall accumulations will be on the
light side and generally average less than 3 inches.

Nonetheless, falling temperatures, gusty winds and greatly
reduced visibilities in any squalls could prove hazardous to
travel, which will be greater than normal being the day before
thanksgiving.

By Wednesday night snow shower activity wanes as arctic high
pressure surges into the region. Blustery northwest winds continue,
gusting to in excess of 30 mph at times as temperatures fall into
the single digits for most spots outside the immediate vicinity of
lake champlain.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 317 pm est Monday... Big story for the longterm forecast will
be the very cold temperatures on the way for thanksgiving.

However, there is good news for those not quite ready to jump
into the heart of winter yet; a warming trend begins Friday with
temperatures trending back to near seasonal norms for the start
of next week.

Details... A sharpening trough aloft over the northeastern us eastern
canada Thursday and an arctic surface high to our west will
promote deep northerly northwesterly flow over new england for
thanksgiving day. This will transport an arctic air mass
southward, resulting in temperatures 2 to 3 standard deviations
below normal throughout the 925 mb to 500 mb layer over our
forecast area. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will
generally be in the teens. These temperatures would set record
low daily maximums throughout the forecast area... However there
is one caveat - the timing of the arrival of coldest air
Wednesday night Thursday morning. Current thinking is that the
temperatures around midnight Wednesday night Thursday morning
will still be warm enough to set the daily highs around
midnight. This would prevent daily record low maxes from being
broken in many locations Thursday. Nonetheless... Whether or not
we technically set any records shouldn't take away from the main
message... It's going to be plain cold Thursday. In addition to
the very low temperatures, the cold air advection will favor a
deep mixed boundary layer that will mix gusty
northerly northwesterly winds to the surface. Wind chills will
be below zero throughout the forecast area Thursday near dawn
Thursday morning, then only raise to the -5 to +5 f range during
the afternoon on thanksgiving.

Thursday night, arctic high pressure will crest over the region,
allowing for temperatures to further drop into the single digits
throughout the north country. Low temperatures will approach record
low minimums Thursday night Friday morning, and a few areas may break
records. However, given the building high pressure, winds will
be nearly calm overnight and although temperatures will be very
cold, there won't be any wind chills. See climate section below
for daily climate records for november 22nd and 23rd.

High pressure shifts further east Friday, allowing for the
commencement of some warm air advection within return southwesterly
flow. High temperatures over the weekend will generally be in the
30s. The next chance for precipitation comes Saturday night Sunday
as troughing redevelops over the area and an upper-level
disturbance moves through. Details at this point have yet to be
ironed out, however, most likely scenario given the arrival of
warmer air will be a mix of rain and snow.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Through 18z Tuesday... Conditions are mainlyVFR at this time
with ceilings near 4000-5000ft and will generally remain so
until about 05-08z when lower ceilings begin to push in from the
west and from the southeast through two weak systems. Sites
will transition towards MVFR ceilings of 1500-2500agl with vcsh
possible starting around 05z. By 10-12z, ceilings will likely
fall below 1000ft agl for the remainder of the TAF period at all
sites except kbtv and kpbg. Snow showers are also likely across
all sites, but more widespread snow will take place at kmpv and
krut. Visibilities will fall to 2sm as snow falls with the
greatest chances and the potential for 1 2sm visibility in kmpv
and krut. Winds are expected to be variable and less than 10kts,
though northerly winds will become more preferred.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shsn.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shsn.

Thanksgiving day:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance ra, slight chance sn.

Climate
The record low MAX temperature for burlington for thanksgiving day
is 19 degrees, set on thanksgiving day (november 24th) 1938.

Below are some daily climate records for november 22nd and
23rd.

November 22nd:
record low daily MAX record low daily min
burlington: 22 (2008) 3 (1969)
plattsburgh: 24 (2008) 6 (1972)
montpelier: 18 (2008) 2 (1964)
st. Johnsbury: 22 (2008) 12 (2014)
saranac lake: 10 (1987) -2 (2000)
massena: 22 (1989) 0 (1972)
november 23rd:
record low daily MAX record low daily min
burlington: 20 (1914) 2 (1972)
plattsburgh: 23 (1989) 6 (2000)
montpelier: 21 (2000) -1 (1972)
st. Johnsbury: 22 (2000) 7 (2000)
saranac lake: 18 (2000) -11 (1932)
massena: 18 (2008) 0 (2000)

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jmg
near term... Jmg
short term... Jmg
long term... Rsd
aviation... Haynes
climate... Rsd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY3 mi46 minN 810.00 miFair34°F28°F79%1016.9 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT21 mi45 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F27°F78%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3CalmCalmS4S3SW3S3S3SW3S4SW3S3S3S3CalmS5SW545W5CalmCalmN8
1 day agoW5NW4NW7W4W5NW9NW5NW53CalmCalmW3N4CalmCalmN4CalmNE4E5SE7S6S4S4Calm
2 days agoCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNE4SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW3S436W43W3N3CalmNW10

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Mon -- 01:34 AM EST     0.57 meters High Tide
Mon -- 02:31 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:31 AM EST     0.57 meters Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:59 PM EST     0.59 meters High Tide
Mon -- 02:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:16 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:12 PM EST     0.58 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.