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forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 406 am edt Thu may 2 2024
slz022-024-021515- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 406 am edt Thu may 2 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Partly Sunny. Tonight - Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Friday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Partly Sunny. Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers overnight. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy.

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FXUS61 KBTV 021818 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 218 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered to numerous showers, with a few possible thunderstorms, will continue through the day today over northern areas. High pressure will return for Friday and bring drier weather and some breaks in the sun. Rain showers enter northern New York on Saturday and the entire region for Sunday. Drier weather looks to start next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 218 PM EDT Thursday... Afternoon update required a few more small updates to temperatures and sky cover, but things are playing out well with precipitation. Showers developed just ahead of the surface cold front in Vermont, and pulsed up enough for a single, short- lived thunderstorm so far just north of Newport. If there have been any slight trends, it has been towards less instability and more cloud cover than expected, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see no further thunderstorm activity before showers peter out and exit eastern Vermont late this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...

A warm front is passing through the North Country tonight and it is bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms from an area of elevated instability. These storms will continue for much of the night before dissipating by mid- morning as the elevated instability diminishes. Some showers will then develop during the day across northern areas as a shortwave trough builds into the region and an associated cold pool steepens lapse rates. Diurnal heating will help create some surface based instability, particularly over Northeast Vermont, and there is the possibility that it is strong enough for a couple thunderstorms to develop. Small hail and graupel cannot be ruled out in these storms due to the cold air aloft. There is a strong QPF gradient across the region with southern areas only expected to see a few hundreths of an inch of rain while the Northeast Kingdom should see up to around a half-inch. Across the showery northern areas, temperatures will only reach the lower 60s. However, temperatures will reach the upper 60s and low 70s across southern Vermont where it will be drier and where some breaks in the clouds are possible.

The shortwave passes to the east overnight and the shower chances quickly end as lapse rates lower and diurnal heating ends. Abundant low-level moisture and light winds could cause fog formation overnight, particularly if some breaks form in the clouds.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s across the region. An upper level ridge builds into the region on Friday and it will bring drier and warmer weather. 925 mb temperatures look to rise to between 9-14 degrees but easterly flow will keep the warmest temperatures, up to 20 celsius, just to the southwest over Central New York. Highs should therefore range in the upper 60s and low 70s. Temperatures will depend a bit on how quickly the low clouds from Thursday's shortwave scour out and how quickly high clouds build in from the west. It looks like there should at least be some filtered sunshine during the day for most areas.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 408 AM EDT Thursday...Longwave ridge axis shifts eastward Friday night with southerly flow increasing. Expect increasing cloud cover and mild overnight temperatures in the mid/upper 40s and low 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 408 AM EDT Thursday...The pattern evolution will support deeper moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico Saturday as upper level ridge axis amplifies downstream of the North Country. A weak trough moving out of the lower mid west will help pull Gulf moisture northward while a stronger trough with upper level support swings through the Great Lakes region. These features will likely begin to phase supporting PWATs in excess of 1" late Saturday into Sunday as the surface trough moves through the region. Expect shower chances to begin increasing Saturday with rain/rain showers Saturday night and Sunday. While conditions will be wet, best forcing will likely be displaced northward into Canada as the low rides up the ridge, so excessive rainfall/flooding is not anticipated.

Active pattern continues with ridging returning Monday into Tuesday.
A lack of cold air replacement resulting from the nature of the continental airmass from lower/central US Plains will keep temperatures running warmer that seasonal averages. Ensembles favor a pattern that would support highs in the lower/mid 70s. We'll be keeping an eye on the mid-week system that may move into the North Country on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and a chance at decent forcing could supply ingredients for more robust thunderstorms. It will all depend on timing which is vague this far out. Should a front approach during max heating Wednesday, a few stronger storms would be possible. However, it's just as likely at this point that frontal passage could be offset outside of peak heating which would limit convection. Ensembles keep a progressive pattern beyond Wednesday supporting quick moving ridge/troughs.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 18Z Friday... Aside from EFK where ceilings have lowered to near 1000 feet, conditions are VFR this afternoon with a weak cold front having passed east of the region. Some shower activity remains possible primarily at EFK and MPV through the evening but no impacts are expected with rain on the lighter side. As breezy north winds with gusts up to 20 knots taper off by 00Z and breaks in post-frontal clouds develop, fog will become possible, especially in New York terminals based on the lighter low level flow. Farther east, there are some indications of a stratus deck, so across the airspace there is a low to moderate chance of some IFR conditions, while MVFR conditions are much more likely at times during the overnight due to a subsidence inversion. Any fog and low stratus may linger through about 15Z, then any cloud cover will become generally a scattered, high cloud deck.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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