Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:38PM Thursday September 21, 2017 3:34 PM EDT (19:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:46AMMoonset 7:43PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1038 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Today..Light winds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201709212245;;716392 FZUS53 KAPX 211438 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1038 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-212245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211744
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
144 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Update
Issued at 1051 am edt Thu sep 21 2017
updated for sky cover trends (faster clearing) while increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances in the northeastern section of the
forecast area. Clouds are dissipating rather quickly this morning.

This will leave lots of sunshine which should be mixing with
heating of the day instability cumulus formation shortly. Light
winds today should allow for lake breezes to form which should be
the trigger for showers and storms, mainly off of lake huron from
mid afternoon through early evening. Models show a healthy amount
of mixed layer CAPE (2000-2500 j kg) out that way. Could even see
some gusty winds and with pwats in the 1.50 to 1.75 inch range,
some locally heavy rainfall.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Unseasonably warm and humid...

high impact weather potential... Few strong t-storms possible this
afternoon early evening northern lower mi.

Incoming cold front pushing east of mqt-esc-grb. Broken line of
showers t-storms just ahead of the front is impacting portions of
northern mi. The front will lay over across central lower mi by
late today, while a trailing bubble high transits the lk superior
james bay areas. Return flow will start to get going again tonight
as the high move into quebec, though this return flow will be much
stronger to our west. Precip trends and temps are the main concerns.

Ongoing precip is thinning out (and has been struggling for much of
the event) south of m-32. A band of stronger storms still exists
from just east of drummond isl to presque isle co. Expect
northern activity to exit to the ne, with lingering showers to the
south continuing to dissipate. Cams favor current convection
fading out by 12-13z, as instability fades and forcing lifts out
into canada.

That will leave us with a warm and humid airmass, but a healthy
amount of cloud cover early on. Clouds will thin with time, with a
mostly cloudy morning giving way to a partly sunny and hazy
afternoon. Temps will climb quickly in this warm airmass, and temps
look to reach in the mid upper 70s in the straits area and points
north, and 80s elsewhere. Gladwin the most likely spot to take a
run at the upper 80s. (these values are generally a few degrees
short of record highs.)
dew points in the upper 60s to around 70f (!) will support mlcape
values a bit in the 1-1.5k j kg range. Warm temps aloft (15c at
circa 825 mb) will provide a weak cap, but lake breezes may have
enough forcing to get thru that. After pops dwindle early this
morning, will return a broad area of northern lower mi to chance
pops this afternoon, with a slight chance for redevelopment in
eastern upper. 0-6km bulk shear is anemic (10kt or less), but we
have enough instability moisture for some strongish wet
microbursts.

Any diurnal convection here will diminish this evening. However,
with some return flow getting going overnight, the instability plume
will make northward progress tonight even as it wanes. This will be
especially notable in western central upper mi, where return flow is
stronger. Still, pulses of deep convection could generate there
tonight, and propagate eastward into our northern sections. Chance
pops returns to far northern lower and eastern upper mi, mainly
overnight. Elsewhere, threat for some fog returns. Min temps mid 60s
to around 70f.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Dry for the weekend...

high impact weather potential... None
pattern synopsis forecast... There could be some showers left over
from the night, but for the most part the 500 mb ridge begins to
amplify and the 850 mb and 700 mb levels warm. This caps the region,
to a certain extent, and with the lack of a kicker(front or jet) the
think that the limited pops in E upper in the morning and dry
through the afternoon looks good. The ridge continues to amp up, and
continues the dry weather through Sunday morning.

Primary forecast concerns... If we could get any kind of kicker to
start precipitation, the MLCAPE is over 1500 j kg. However, looking
at the ml parcels on the skew-t, there is some weak capping so don't
think that anything gets going.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Dry early in the week then rain to move in by mid week...

extended (Sunday through Wednesday)... Sunday through Tuesday
morning, the 500 mb ridge continues to keep the region dry. Tuesday
afternoon, the ridge finally breaks down and the cold front begins
to move into the forecast area. There could be some thunder, but at
this point, thinking it is unlikely as we are pretty well capped as
the front moves through the region. Wednesday, there is a timing
difference in the GFS and the ECMWF 500 mb lows are placed
differently upstream. The ECMWF idea brings in le rain showers on
Wednesday and brisk temperatures, while the GFS is slower with the
main trough at 500 mb having yet to rotate into the region (not
until Thursday). So think that there will be some showers around,
but no confidence in this forecast for days 6 and 7.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 136 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017
there could be a few popup showers or thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening from the heating of the day, best chance is at apn
with lesser chances at the other TAF sites. Patchy fog and
possible areas of low clouds may form tonight in the humid
airmass. Mostly sunny hot and humid conditions expected during the
day Friday.

Marine
Issued at 342 am edt Thu sep 21 2017
decaying cold front will slow and stall as it crosses northern
lake mi and reaches central lower mi by early tonight. Surface
winds will be relatively light while the front is in the vicinity.

Southerly winds will ramp up into Friday and Friday night, and
some choppy conditions will develop on lake mi, especially toward
the far north end of the lake. Advisory-level waves are a
possibility.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... As
near term... Jz
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... As
marine... Jz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi55 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 1016.9 hPa
45022 49 mi25 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 69°F1017.7 hPa70°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi47 min E 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 1016.1 hPa62°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi39 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F67°F53%1017.3 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi42 minNNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F65°F53%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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S7SE6SE3CalmCalmSE4SE6SE5S4S3SW3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW3CalmS5
1 day agoE3NE5E7E5SE4E5E7E4E3E5E4E3CalmCalmNE3CalmE3E4SE4SE5SE5SE7SE10
G15
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2 days agoCalmCalmN5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E9E7E8E7SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.