Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 7:54PM Friday March 22, 2019 2:06 AM EDT (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:05PMMoonset 7:53AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1011 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Overnight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots early in the morning. Chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Slight chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201903221015;;726435 FZUS53 KAPX 220211 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1011 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-221015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 220349
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1149 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Update
Issued at 1002 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
cold front is dropping southward across eastern upper and far
northern lower mi. (note that a lot of METAR data has gone
missing nationally over the last couple of hours.) there was light
snow or mixed rain snow in parts of eastern upper mi before the
data outage. Lower clouds steadily scoured out ahead of the front
thru this evening. High-based stratocu and mid- clouds are
regathering over parts of NW lower and the straits area, just
ahead of the surface front. Some weak returns are developing on
radar, but with CIGS above 4k ft, these have some work to get down
to the surface.

Have been making some adjustments to pop wx cloud grids this
evening. Pops have been trimmed, especially early tonight. And
drizzle wording has been replaced with more in the way of a rain
vs snow wording. Best chance for measurable precip look to be in
eastern upper mi, and in the rogers city apn harrisville areas of
ne lower.

Update issued at 606 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
quick update to allow for partial clearing in parts of NW lower
mi this evening. Back edge of the MVFR stratocu deck continues to
make gradual inroads into leelanau benzie manistee cos. This will
slowly progress further eastward thru about 9 pm, before cooler
more moist air starts to spill back into that region from the n.

This will also result in a very late day bump to temps in some
spots (noting that it was a very mild day on the other side of
lake mi, and even in central western upper mi).

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 313 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Light rain drizzle changing to light snow...

high impact weather potential... Low to medium.

Primary forecast concerns... Winds and snow amounts.

A weak area of low pressure and an associated cold front will
sweep across the region tonight. Model soundings cross sections
indicate that moisture is not very deep at the onset (near to just
under -10c). Therefore, probably dealing with a little
drizzle light rain at the onset. Somewhat deeper moisture along
with colder air and upslope should change over precipitation to
mainly light snow overnight. Could see up to around an inch of
snow accumulation (especially across the higher terrain).

Meanwhile, northwest winds will turn gusty overnight.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 313 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Colder Friday with light snow early, some Sun and warmer for the
weekend...

high impact weather potential: none expected.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: lingering precipitation
chances Friday morning, with afternoon pcpn Sunday north of the
straits.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Clipper which moved over the great lakes
Thursday will exit east of the state early Friday, while a large
area of high pressure settles into the region for the weekend. Deep
500mb trough over the eastern one third of the country Friday, will
slowly push east while weak upper ridging nearly zonal flow develops
over the state for the weekend.

The chances for precipitation will be limited across northern
michigan through much of the forecast period as high pressure
largely dominates the region. However some lingering snow showers
are possible into early Friday morning in response to weakening
cyclonic flow and diminishing mstr on the backside of the eastward
exiting clipper. Will concentrate the best chance for snow showers
Friday morning in favored north flow snow belts right along the lake
huron and lake michigan shorelines, as model soundings show sfc-
850mb winds from 360 and low lvl inversion heights linger around 4k
ft.

Much of the weekend will remain dry with some Sun and moderating
temperatures, as high pressure centers over the state (model
soundings and mstr progs showing 850 500mb mstr under 30 pct through
Sunday afternoon). 850mb temps will be around -12c Friday in the
exiting upper trough, before mid lvl temps warm to around +4c early
Sunday. This pattern will help afternoon temps warm from below
normal readings in the upper 20s Friday, to the upper 40s Sunday.

There is a chance for pcpn increasing over east upper Sunday
evening, as a weak sfc boundary and base of upper trough digs into
the NRN great lakes.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 313 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
an upper trough which settled over the eastern great lakes during
the weekend will exit east Tuesday, before weak 500mb ridging builds
into the ohio valley and great lakes. Mid lvl temps in this pattern
will warm from btwn -9c and -12c to begin the work week, to +4c by
Thursday, generating below normal high temps in the 30s through
Tuesday before warming to above normal readings in the 50s Thursday.

Precipitation will be limited across the northern great lakes
through next week as a large area of high pressure pushes across the
region through midweek. A system lifting into the northern plains
and great lakes Wednesday night, will generate a chance of mainly
rain over NRN michigan Thursday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1149 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
mostly MVFR toVFR cigs, though ifr expected tonight at pln.

A quick shot of colder air will be ushered in from the north
tonight. Spotty light mixed precip (drizzle snow) will occur this
evening early overnight, then transition to scattered snow showers
before ending during the day Friday. NW lower mi has seen partial
clearing this evening, but lower CIGS will return tonight and thru
Friday. These will vary from MVFR toVFR. However, pln is expected
to see ifr CIGS late tonight. All sitesVFR by Friday afternoon
evening, as much drier air arrives.

Winds will veer nw, and will be quite gusty on Friday.

Marine
Issued at 313 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
low pressure and an associated cold front will sweep across the
region tonight. Gusty northwest winds will follow for later
tonight into Friday. Gales have been posted across portions of
lake michigan and lake huron with small craft advisories
elsewhere.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Gale warning from 5 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lhz348-349.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Friday for lmz323-341-342.

Gale warning from 5 am to 5 pm edt Friday for lmz344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... As
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
aviation... Jz
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi27 min NW 8 G 11 34°F 1011.2 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi37 min WNW 6 G 9.9 34°F 33°F1009.2 hPa28°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi3.1 hrsW 610.00 mi32°F29°F92%1010.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi12 minN 07.00 miOvercast31°F29°F94%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3E3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3NW3NW4----W8W9W6--W8--W6SW4W3W6
1 day agoSW6SW5SW5SW5SW7S5S5SW5SW5S5SW7SW8SW9
G17
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2 days ago----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W4W8SW9SW9W5S7SW8S7W11W4SW4SW3SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.