Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manistee Lake, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:04PM Thursday December 13, 2018 5:25 PM EST (22:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:27PMMoonset 11:02PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 424 Pm Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Isolated snow showers, patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201812140530;;747865 FZUS53 KAPX 132124 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 424 PM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-140530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manistee Lake, MI
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location: 44.7, -84.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 132050
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
350 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 347 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Wintry mix precipitation tonight...

high impact weather potential: light snow ice accumulations south,
some freezing drizzle north.

Pattern synopsis forecast: upper air analysis reveals a broad
ridge trough ridge pattern across the conus. Main upper jet takes a
deep dive from the northern rockies down into the south-central
conus with a detaching mid level short-wave and low pressure closing
off over texas. Weaker northern branch and short-wave trough is
progressing through the upper midwest. At the surface, low pressure
is over east texas ahead of the aforementioned short-wave with a
surface trough that stretches northward through the midwest. Most of
the active weather continues along the gulf and into the mid
mississippi river valley but with deep moisture advection and precip
spreading north northeastward ahead of the trough. Some very light
precip noted moving out of the minnesota ahead of the northern
stream short-wave trough.

Across the CWA currently, lower cloud cover has stuck around in most
locations although some thinning brightening has been seen around
the region. But nearly everyone has been able to warm to the middle
and upper 30s.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: precip type, light icing and
light snow accumulations.

Northern stream short-wave will press across the northern lakes
region late tonight through Friday morning. Qg-forcing for ascent is
rather unimpressive. But, this system will act to tighten squeeze
the thermal gradient across lower michigan with subsequent
development of a modest deformation axis bisecting lower michigan.

Strongest response highest pops-qpf expected to be through the
saginaw valley and points south... Essentially along and south of the
m-55 corridor.

Precip type is another matter. Initially, forecast soundings across
my southern counties suggest primarily snow to start. But as low
level warm air gradually noses up into northern lower michigan,
still think we see a transition toward more liquid freezing rain
very late into Friday morning. Combination of light snow
accumulation and some light icing late may ultimately necessitate a
winter weather headline. But i'd prefer to allow evening or
overnight crew see how things evolve and make the call as needed
toward the morning commute.

Further north, just some light nuisance precip (light snow, patchy
freezing drizzle) anticipated along the track of the short-wave
trough. That said, any freezing drizzle could also necessitate and
winter weather headline in itself. So... Again will allow later
shifts to see how things unfold.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 347 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Early precip threat Friday morning then a dry weekend...

high impact weather potential: wintry mix possible near saginaw bay
Friday morning.

Pattern synopsis forecast: split short wave trough moving across
central north america this afternoon... Northern branch was moving
into the upper midwest while a compact circulation in the southern
branch was over texas. Pattern upstream of this short wave is
amplifying... .With broad ridging over the western u.S. And another
short wave trough approaching 140w. Northern branch wave
(actually two pieces of energy) will lift across the upper lakes
Friday... While the southern branch will deepen as it bowling balls
its way along the gulf coast before turning northeast into the mid
atlantic. New amplifying eastern pacific short wave trough will
push inland quickly this weekend... With some associated height falls
eventually reaching michigan by Monday (along with a new push of
colder air across the lakes to start next work week).

At the surface... 1035mb high pressure over northern new england...

with some surface troughiness over northwest ontario and the upper
midwest associated with northern branch short wave trough. Better
defined surface low was along the texas oklahoma border with the
stronger upper support associated with the southern branch wave.

This surface low will remain south of michigan while a narrow east-
west oriented high pressure ridge sets up across the state beneath
deformation confluence axis between jet branches. Approaching
height falls with pacific short wave trough will push a cold front
across michigan probably in the Sunday night time frame.

Primary forecast concerns: only real concern in the short term is
lingering precipitation Friday morning across northeast lower with
last lingering bit of deep moisture associated with isentropic
ascent. Warming aloft and near freezing surface temperatures could
bring a mix of snow liquid (rain or freezing rain depending on
surface temperatures) over the far southeast portion of the forecast
area near saginaw bay. All of this looks to exit stage right Friday
morning... With a strong push of dry air in its wake as evident in
afternoon satellite imagery over the dakotas western minnesota.

There is a second PV anomaly in the northern branch forecast to pass
north of lake superior Friday afternoon but doesn't look to have
much impact on the forecast area.

Little in the way of forecast concerns beyond Friday afternoon
through Sunday with aforementioned surface ridge lying across the
lower peninsula.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 347 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Colder air will likely arrive Sunday night Monday across the upper
great lakes... With deep layer northwesterly flow and 850mb
temperatures headed to -10c likely leading to lake induced snow
showers. Right now doesn't look like a major threat. Moderating
temperatures for midweek as warm advection kicks in... With the
possibility of a short wave trough arriving in the Wednesday-
Thursday time frame.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1259 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
once again, lots of MVFR cloud cover across the region. There are
some thin spots clearing that may bring some temporaryVFR weather
to the terminal sites. But overall, anticipate MVFR conditions
through the afternoon.

Tonight, surface trough across the midwest today will cross
through the region later overnight into Friday. Increasing
southerly winds ahead of this system may actually help scour out
the lower cloud cover for a time, replaced by thickening mid and
high level cloud cover. Some light precip slides through the
region with this system, mainly in the form of very light snow,
although a little -fzdz is also possible.

Marine
Issued at 347 pm est Thu dec 13 2018
a generally quieter stretch of weather anticipated heading into the
weekend, at least from a wind wave perspective. Some stronger
westerly winds are possible on Friday Friday night... And could
require a small craft advisory for some areas. Weakening winds into
the weekend.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Jpb
long term... Jpb
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 48 mi45 min S 6 G 9.9 36°F 1020.7 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 75 mi37 min S 4.1 G 5.1 35°F 35°F1020 hPa29°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield, MI12 mi87 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F27°F76%1020.9 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI24 mi29 minS 510.00 miOvercast36°F27°F70%1021 hPa

Wind History from GOV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE8E6E5E4SE4CalmCalmE3CalmNE4CalmCalmSE5S4CalmS4S4S4S6S6S4S4SW5
1 day agoW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE7SE8SE10E8SE9SE14SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.