Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hampden, ME

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Sunrise 4:47AMSunset 8:26PM Thursday June 20, 2019 12:54 AM EDT (04:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:04PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 950 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 ft. Areas of drizzle. A slight chance of showers late this evening, then a chance of showers. Areas of dense fog. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Areas of dense fog in the morning. A chance of showers with areas of drizzle in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm in the morning.
Thu night..SE winds up to 10 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Showers likely in the evening.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
ANZ100 950 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A frontal boundary will remain stalled south of new england overnight as a cold front slowly sags south into northwest portions of the forecast area. The front will continue to slip south on Thursday and Thursday night as several waves of low pressure track northeast along it. The front will push offshore on Friday morning. High pressure will build in from the west Friday afternoon through Sunday night. A warm front will push into the region from the west on Monday and will be quickly followed by a cold front late Monday night and Tuesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hampden, ME
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location: 44.75, -68.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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Fxus61 kcar 200413
afdcar
area forecast discussion
national weather service caribou me
1213 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move away to the east tonight as a frontal
boundary stalls across the north. Low pressure will approach on
Thursday and track across the gulf of maine Thursday night.

Near term through today
Update 12:15 am: have adjusted wind, temperature, and dew
points based on latest observations. No other changes.

Previous discussion:
high pressure to our east combined with a stalled front across
the north will channel moisture into the area tonight.

Convergence along the front combined with some CAPE up to 300
j kg will produce showers and some embedded thunder, mainly over
western and northern areas, this evening. Some showers and areas
of drizzle will continue late tonight into Thursday morning. Low
pressure over the upper midwest, supported by an upper trough
digging through the great lakes, will approach on Thursday. This
will bring a steadier, heavier rain into the downeast region
Thursday with some lighter rain pushing up across the north.

Convergence along the coastal front may support some isolated
thunder near the downeast coast Thursday afternoon. Humid air
lifting north across the gulf of maine will likely produce areas
of fog over the gulf of maine tonight into Thursday.

Short term tonight through Saturday
Overall trend for heavy rain to impact the area Thursday night,
namely downeast, continues as multiple forms of guidance
suggest strengthening low pressure to track near the gulf of
maine coast. Exact from of this low will be ironed out, but both
a flat, quick traverse such as the GFS suggests and a intense
low pressure center off the coast as the NAM suggests, would
prove equal chances of elevated rainfall rates. Kept mention of
patchy fog across all areas Thursday night.

Pwats advertised just shy of 2 inches downeast are well above the
climo 75 percent average of 1.22in at gyx. 850mb moisture
transport also puts much of this moisture advecting over
portions of coastal downeast before shifting SW or parallel.

This region is also outlined when analyzing the precip potential
placement parameter for heavy rainfall, combining pwat and mean
low-level rh. Sufficient warm cloud layer depth exceeds 13kft
across portions of interior downeast, with greater than 10kft
just north of a hul to gnr line. Thus, only limitation in precip
efficiency will be the lack of a long, skinny CAPE profile.

This is due to the warm airmass creating relatively weak lapse
rates. However, the potential duration of the event from
Thursday night thru late Friday morning will result in training
showers across locations that look to accumulate impressive qpf
amounts. At this time, most of downeast stands a shot at
localized QPF totals close to 2 inches, with less to the north.

Upper-level dynamics will need to be stronger to go much more
widespread, as some of the deterministic runs could be showing
convective feedback with erroneous high QPF bullseye. In any
case, have introduced moderate and heavy rain from thurs evening
into early Friday morning for downeast and central areas.

As low exits, precip will linger as showers downeast to the
north, making Friday a washout for much of the south. Tapering
begins in the evening with much of Friday night into Saturday
becoming dry across the north and western areas. Strong NW flow
on backside will bring chance for isolated showers Sat evening.

All guidance agrees on nosing in high pressure Saturday evening
into Sunday.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Dry conditions anticipated Sunday and Monday, with Monday being
the most cloud free. Temperatures look to run in the upper 70s
downeast. Even the coast will see a quick jump in temps during
the morning as offshore flow looks possible. Clouds increase
during the evening ahead of another system to bring rain to the
region. This will be located along a front from an occluding low
traveling from the upper midwest into lower canadian provinces.

Duration of the rainfall will need to be refined as there remain
a few outcomes. Canadian has a more progressive track eastward
keeping northern and eastern maine under precip, while ECMWF and
gfs solutions have it stalling up near james bay. This also
stalls the frontal system with showers possible. Will need to
watch how large upper ridge decays or remains intact Monday for
how progressive system becomes.

Aviation 04z Thursday through Monday
Near term: stillVFR at the terminals, but conditions will
lower to MVFR then ifr late evening and overnight in lowering
clouds and showers over the region. The conditions are expected
to lower first along the coast, and after midnight at the
aroostook county terminals. Lifr to ifr conditions are expected
downeast on Thursday with ifr to MVFR conditions are expected
across the north.

Short term: ifr expected Thursday night with rain and patchy fog.

Rain may be heavy at times at downeast terminals with further
reduction in vis. Improvements will be felt first across
northern terminals Friday morning trending to MVFR. Isolated
showers are possible across the north Saturday afternoon. High
pressure moves in Sat night withVFR expected across all areas
through Monday.

Marine
Near term: the wind and seas are expected to remain below sca
tonight and Thursday. Moist air over the waters will likely
result in fog and reduced visibilities tonight and Thursday.

Short term: areas of fog expected to linger Friday morning. Waves
will gradually increase to 3-4 ft through Saturday, but stay
below SCA criteria. Winds will follow suite, 15-20kts. Winds and
waves will subside into Monday.

Climate
The high temperature this afternoon in caribou was 80 degrees.

This is the first 80 degree day of 2019. On average (1981-2010
averages), the first 80 degree day is observed on may 23rd. This
was the latest date for the first 80 degree day since 2000, and
ranked as the 7th latest date for the first 80 degree day on
record (period of record since 1939) in caribou.

Car watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Mignone


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 41 mi61 min 54°F 48°F1010.2 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 49 mi111 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 54°F1 ft1010.3 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 59 mi111 min S 7.8 G 9.7 52°F 49°F1 ft1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bangor, Bangor International Airport, ME4 mi62 minS 610.00 miOvercast57°F55°F93%1009.4 hPa

Wind History from BGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S6SW4S5SW3S6S6SW3CalmS6S7S7S7S12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalm5CalmSW5S9SW10SW8S11S7SE7S4S5S6S6
2 days agoSW4CalmNW4NW6N8CalmNW7NW8NW5NW12NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Hampden, Penobscot River, Maine
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Hampden
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Thu -- 01:38 AM EDT     14.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:06 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:21 PM EDT     12.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     1.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.31414.212.910.26.63.20.8-0.10.52.65.78.911.312.512.310.67.952.71.72.246.9

Tide / Current Tables for Sandy Point, Penobscot River, Maine
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Sandy Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:20 AM EDT     11.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:52 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:03 PM EDT     10.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.511.611.4107.54.620.4-0.10.72.75.47.99.610.29.78.15.83.51.91.42.13.86.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.