Monday, January22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Cumberland Head, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 4:51PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:21 AM EST (12:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1223 Pm Est Sun Dec 31 2017
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Clear.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Wednesday night.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Thursday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed to navigation for the season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cumberland Head, NY
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location: 44.75, -73.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 221147
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
647 am est Mon jan 22 2018

A warm front will lift northeast into the region this afternoon
and evening. Widespread precipitation is expected to develop as
a result. The precipitation will begin as a wintry mix this
afternoon and tonight before changing over to rain during the
morning hours on Tuesday. Light ice accumulations are expected...

especially across portions of northern new york and areas east
of the green mountains in vermont. The warm front moves north of
the area early on Tuesday and rain is expected for all areas as
highs climb into the 40s.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 647 am est Monday... Noticing some colder air from canada
making a push southward this morning... Especially across the
saint lawrence valley... Northeast new york... And the northern
third of vermont. Flow aloft will be backing to the southwest as
the morning wears on so at some point the flow of shallow cold
air will stop... But this helps set the stage for mixed
precipitation at the onset of the warm air advection event and
places like the northern champlain valley may hold onto mixed
precipitation an hour or two longer before changing over to
rain. This subtle change does not change the overall ice
forecast as the warm nose aloft does not really have an impact
until after 00z. But some areas could see just a bit more snow
before the changeover... Generally up to an inch. Rest of
forecast remains unchanged.

Previous discussion...

winter weather advisory remains in effect for portions of
northern new york and eastern vermont. Light ice accumulations
are expected to have an impact in these areas.

Weather starts off quiet this morning before a warm front lifts
northeast into the region later in the day and into the first
half of the night. Precipitation really gets going around mid-
afternoon through about midnight before the warm front lifts
north of the border and areas gets into the warm sector. Thermal
profile still supports the idea of mixed precipitation over much
of the area. The only exceptions being southeast saint lawrence
county and a good portion of the champlain valley where a brief
period of mixed precipitation develops before changing over the
rain as temperatures warm above freezing and remain above
freezing through the night. The real areas of concern are across
the saint lawrence valley... The northern portions of the
northern adirondacks... And clinton county in new york and areas
east of the spine of the green mountains in vermont. Low level
cold air holds on in northern new york in response to northeast
winds... But strongest push of the warm layer aloft moves into
this region and thus we continue to expected one to two tenths
of ice accumulation across this areas. A bit more of mixed
precipitation will occur over eastern vermont and it will not be
until later tonight that more icing develops as thermal profile
becomes more favorable for freezing rain. However... This is all
taking place as warm front lifts north of the border and that is
why we are expecting lower ice accumulation numbers in eastern
vermont... Generally up to a tenth of an inch of ice. Still
enough to cause problems.

Once warm front lifts north of the border after midnight
tonight... Area gets in the warm sector and precipitation will
shut down for a bit... Especially from the champlain valley
eastward. A cold front is still expected to move into the region
on Tuesday and enhance the potential for rain as temperatures
should warm into the 40s across the entire area. Most areas will
see at least a quarter to half inch of rain with higher amounts
possible over southern vermont. See hydrologic section below for
details on how this will affect river levels and ice jam

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday
As of 409 am est Monday... As the aforementioned surface low
pressure continues to lift northeast from the st. Lawrence
valley into southern quebec and the parent upper trough swings
in behind it, the attending cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Tuesday night with rain changing to snow from west
to east through the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. Behind the
front west-northwest flow will aid in some lingering snow
showers across the upslope regions of the adirondacks and
northern greens through early afternoon, but the deeper valleys
will trend towards drier conditions. A dusting to perhaps 2
inches is possible through Wednesday in the valleys, with 2-5"
across the higher peaks, especially in northern vermont. Temps
fall sharply behind the front, running in the mid-30s to low-40s
before midnight Wednesday, then plummeting into the teens and
20s by sunrise, and steadily falling further through the day to
widespread low mid teens by sunset. In addition, a brisk
northwest wind Wednesday will make for wind chills in the single
digits above and below zero.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 409 am est Monday... Quieter yet unseasonably colder
conditions develop for the latter half of the work week as
surface high pressure builds in behind the departing low
pressure system, yet the upper trough remains aloft. No
precipitation is expected for Wednesday night through Friday
night, but high temps will be widespread in the teens Thursday,
and struggle to hit the low 20s for Friday. Both Wednesday and
Thursday nights will see a return of single digit lows above and
below zero.

Heading into the weekend the pattern continues to look more active
as we continue to monitor model trends which indicate the potential
for another warmup and mixed precipitation event. The combination of
strong high pressure exiting off the eastern seaboard and a clipper
low moving through southern ontario will develop strong
south southwesterly flow across the appalachian mountains tapping
into rich gulf moisture ahead of a cold front. Timing continues to
be uncertain in regards to the frontal passage, but trends are
towards a more progressive system with thermal profiles supporting
mainly rain Saturday night through Sunday, possible starting as a
wintry mix, before ending rapidly Sunday night as a mix of rain and
snow. We'll certainly be ironing out the finer details as the week
goes on so stay tuned.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Through 12z Tuesday...VFR conditions to start this morning but
as a warm front approaches the area from the southwest ceilings
will lower into the MVFR and ifr categories... Especially this
afternoon and tonight. Visibilities will also be lowering after
about 22z as widespread mixed precipitation moves into the
area. The precipitation will last through about 06z then lift
north of the canadian border. Improving conditions will develop
after 06z with ceilings and visibilities returning into the
MVFR andVFR categories as winds begin to increase from the
south and southeast. The only exception to this will be at kmss
where winds will remain from the northeast and be rather gusty
this afternoon and tonight. There may also be some low level
wind shear that develops at kslk after 06z as strong low level
southwesterly jet develops over the area.


Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Definite ra,
chance fzra.

Tuesday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance ra,
chance sn.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance

Wednesday night:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

As of 409 am est Monday... Widespread rainfall is expected
across the area late Monday night and especially on Tuesday.

Current data suggests 36 hour rainfall totals ending at 700 pm
Tuesday will range from 0.50 to 1.00 inch across the area.

Given the substantial loss of snowpack across lower elevations
during last week's storm, and the fact that the warm-up will be
of lesser magnitude we are not expecting significant ice
movement or water rises on area rivers at this time. This is in
close agreement with nerfc guidance and our latest river forecasts.

Conditions will continue to be monitored closely over the next
48 hours and will be updated if later information suggests a
different scenario than current thinking.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
Tuesday for vtz003-004-006>008-010-012-018-019.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Tuesday for nyz026>028-030-031-034-087.

Synopsis... Evenson
near term... Evenson
short term... Lahiff
long term... Lahiff
aviation... Evenson
hydrology... Evenson jmg

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY8 mi29 minN 1010.00 miOvercast22°F16°F78%1025.3 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT20 mi47 minN 77.00 miOvercast20°F17°F91%1025.1 hPa
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT23 mi28 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast23°F19°F85%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE3CalmE3SE3NE8NE6N4N6N5N5N6N6NW4N7N6NW4N6NE7N9N10N9N8N10N10
1 day ago--SW8SW7SW10
2 days agoS3S5S4SE5S5SE6S7SE5SE7S5S5CalmS6SE5S3S5S6S8S11S8S6SE8CalmSW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.