Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:13PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:40 AM EDT (05:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:12AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1021 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Overnight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201705291030;;374108 FZUS53 KAPX 290221 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ323-291030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 290218
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1018 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Update
Issued at 1002 pm edt Sun may 28 2017
mid-level shortwave and weak surface boundary sliding across
northern lake michigan this evening producing a line of showers
and a few thunderstorms. Skinny CAPE and an axis of moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates providing just enough instability for
a number of lightning strikes. Shower and thunder activity should
gradually diminish over the next few hours as this precipitation
encounters increasingly more stable air over northern michigan.

Have raised pops for northwest lower into parts of eastern upper
through midnight.

Also seeing fairly widespread fog from the straits northward into
upper michigan. Fog and stratus will continue to plague this area
overnight into early Monday morning. Fog also likely to develop
over northern lower (especially close to the coasts), although
this should not be as widespread as what occurs further north.

Near term (tonight through Monday)
issued at 328 pm edt Sun may 28 2017
high impact weather potential... Minimal. Thunderstorms will be
possible across northeast lower through mainly late this afternoon.

A few thunderstorms possible on Monday.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Strong closed low just north of
minnesota this afternoon with a pronounced trough extending
southeastward into upper michigan and then curving southward over
lake michigan. Dpva and upper divergence on the leading edge of this
trough has been supporting a large area of showers and scattered
thunderstorms over northern michigan since late this morning.

Meanwhile, an impressive vort MAX can easily be spotted on satellite
imagery spinning overtop the western tip of lake superior with an
agitated CU field developing southward over wi along a quasi-cold
front (more of a surface trough wind shift line). There is also
somewhat of a dry slot in between the wi boundary and the upper
trough.

Heading into late this afternoon and early evening, the band of
showers and thunderstorms will continue to lift northeast, with the
focus for remaining activity transitioning to northeast lower and
far eastern upper. Radar is showing a somewhat rapid erosion of the
western southern edges of this activity. 0-3km lapse rates just out
ahead of the activity are favorable (up to 7.5 c km), but with only
limited instability (~500 j kg of cape), do not anticipate any
strong storms for northeast lower late this afternoon but perhaps
some small hail with the stronger cells. A line of showers is
developing over north central wi along the surface boundary, and
while that activity is expected to diminish as it eventually lifts
northeast into the central up this evening, hi-res models have been
hinting at the possibility of eastern upper and tip of the mitt
perhaps getting brushed by some dying light showers this evening.

Think they would have a tough time holding together as they
encounter a drier airmass and waning daytime instability, however.

As the dry slot works into northwest lower through evening, there
will likely be at least partial clearing over our southwestern
counties. Expect the clouds to be more stubborn over eastern upper
and tip of the mitt. Given today's rainfall and dewpoints in the
upper 40s to low 50s overnight, some radiation fog will be possible
where winds become light... Mainly northeast lower and eastern upper.

On Monday the upper low will wobble over lake superior with several
lobes of vorticity rotating around it. Low level lapse rates will be
very steep, and mid level lapse rates pretty favorable as well with
ongoing cold air advection. This will lead to scattered showers
developing over northern michigan and possibly a few thunderstorms
once the boundary layer destabilizes producing a few hundred j kg of
cape. The main limiting factor will be a much drier airmass in place
with pwats around 0.6 to 0.75". So coverage and intensity will be
much more limited than today. The steep lapse rates will make for
efficient mixing, so it will turn breezy by afternoon with gusts up
to 30 mph possible over northern lower. Eastern upper and northwest
lower will be in closer proximity to the upper low, so cloud cover
will be thicker there than down towards saginaw bay. As a result,
high temperatures will range from the mid 50s to low 60s over
eastern upper... To the low 70s near saginaw bay.

Short term (Monday night through Wednesday)
issued at 328 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Cooler...

high impact weather potential... None.

Upper low that starts out along the north shore of superior will
slowly lift northward, only to be reinforced by another piece of
energy digging south from western hudson bay. A slight tendency for
heights to rebound Wednesday, which will contribute to a decrease in
shower chances. Precip and temp trends are the main concern.

Coolish temps aloft, and the occasional passing shortwave and
associated increased moisture, will support a shower risk thru much
of the short term. This will risk be enhanced by diurnal heating in
the afternoon and evening, particularly on Tuesday. Pops will be
highest in eastern upper mi, closest to the upper low (coolest temps
aloft and more moisture availability). Some occasional likely
numerous pops are in order north of the bridge, with generally no
more than sct to the south. A more emphatic push of drier air
arrives during the day Wednesday, along with somewhat warmer air
aloft. Pops largely disappear Wed afternoon, and cloud cover will
diminish from W to e. Otherwise plenty of cloud cover during these
periods.

Min temps in the 40s. MAX temps upper 50s to mid 60s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 328 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Remaining a little cool with small shower chances...

high impact weather potential... None.

The upper level trough moves ever so slowly to the north and east
over the next several days. Disturbances moving through this trough
will bring periodic rain shower chances across northern michigan.

Weak high pressure is expected to lead to precipitation free
conditions Thursday but shower chances return for Thursday night.

Perhaps another dry day Friday but more shower chances next weekend
as low pressure tracks along the base of the trough. The chances are
on the low side as the details are uncertain at this point. Hope to
get a better handle on the situation over the next couple of days.

Temperatures are expected to be a little below normal through next
weekend (which isn't overly cool really).

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 706 pm edt Sun may 28 2017
weak boundary pushing across the area this evening may produce a
few showers, especially at pln and apn. An isolated thunderstorm
also possible at these locations, although the probability of
occurrence is too low to warrant a mention in the taf. Skies
should clear out tonight as the diurnal CU dissipates. With a wet
ground in some locations from the rain earlier today, areas of fog
are likely. This would especially be the case at pln and apn once
again. These is a low confidence possibility of ifr stratus to
develop at pln later tonight.

Cold air aloft and additional shortwave energy will rotate into
northern michigan on Monday. This will re-develop a sct-bkn
cumulus deck around 5k and result in scattered showers from midday
into the afternoon.

Winds will become gusty from the southwest on Monday, with gusts
up to 25kt possible during the afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 356 pm edt Sun may 28 2017
a weak pressure gradient will remain in place over northern michigan
this evening as a trough of low pressure pushes through. The
pressure gradient will tighten up late tonight into Monday as high
pressure builds over the plains, leading to some gustier winds by
Monday afternoon. Some low end small craft advisory level gusts will
be possible over parts of lakes michigan and huron, but only for a
few hours. Tuesday will be a bit breezy but winds will not be as
strong.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jrk
near term... Mek
short term... Jz
long term... Ajs
aviation... Jrk
marine... Mek


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi61 min S 2.9 G 6 54°F 1004.7 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 53 mi61 min SSW 12 G 14 56°F 1006.1 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi61 min S 6 G 8.9 54°F 1006.1 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Traverse City, Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair55°F52°F90%1004.1 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm34SW11
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SW5CalmCalmN4N6E3NE43CalmCalmSE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4N6N8N7N5NW11
G16
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmW4NW5N4N5NE7NE5NE7NE7NE7NE9N5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.