Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:25PM Thursday June 20, 2019 8:12 PM EDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:13PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 437 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Through early evening..North wind 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201906210400;;803958 FZUS53 KAPX 202037 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 437 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-210400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 202331 cca
afdapx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service gaylord mi
731 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 324 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Clearing skies tonight...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: short-wave trough axis continues to
slowly advance through the western great lakes this afternoon with
a compact vorticity center rolling across kentucky. Associated
surface low is across northern ohio with a warm front that extends
eastward to secondary low pressure over new york pennsylvania.

Batch of rainfall along the northern side of the system is working
through SE lower michigan with the northern edge just skirting the
saginaw bay area and the far SE counties.

Meanwhile, a fair amount of cloud cover extends up through
northern michigan with the back edge of the thicker cloud cover
sliding through NE lower michigan. But, where cloud cover is
thinner and temps are warmer, some heating of the day fair
weather clouds (cu) have developed over NW lower mi in the last
few hours.

Tonight: aforementioned surface low will slide off to the atlantic
coast while surface high pressure and drier air over ontario and
the hudson bay region will wedge it's way down through the great
lakes and ohio valley. Ongoing mid and high cloud thinning trend
will continue over the next several hours and we lose the heating
of day cloud component (cu) as we get into the evening. Bottom
line, all locations should end up mostly clear as we get into the
nighttime hours.

Clearing skies, weakening winds and drier air (dewpoints in the
40s) advecting into the region will set the stage for cool-ish
nighttime lows spanning the 40s... A good 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for the last day of spring 2019.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 324 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Finally some summer weather...

high impact weather potential... Low through Saturday.

Primary forecast concerns... Shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday.

It looks like an upper level ridge of high pressure will hold strong
across the region through at least Saturday and possibly as long as
through Sunday morning. As the ridge edges off to our east, a large
drawn out trough will crawl toward the region from the west. This
will increase shower and thunderstorm chances from southwest to
northeast Saturday night and especially during the day Sunday.

Precipitable water values really ramp up Sunday afternoon to between
1.5 and 2 inches so heavy downpours will be possible. Initial model
mixed layer CAPE values inch up to a few hundred j kg Sunday
afternoon. Meanwhile, bulk shear values are decent at between 35 and
40 knots Sunday afternoon. All in all, expect some thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon and evening but it's a little too early to tell
just how strong they might become. Highs in the lower and middle 70s
Friday which should moderate into the middle and upper 70s Sunday.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 324 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Typical early summer conditions...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Although it does not look like a full scale pattern change, warmer
weather is looking like a good bet for next week (just maybe not the
heat wave some of you may have been hoping for). Humidity levels
will be on the rise as well, especially Monday. There will be
chances for showers and thunderstorms through much of the long term
as an upper level low inches across the region. Precipitable water
values hold between an impressive 1.5 and 2 inches Monday so heavy
downpours will again be possible. Initial model mixed layer cape
values are upwards of 2000 j kg Monday afternoon. Plus we are in the
right entrance region of around a 90 knot jet (which is a favorable
spot for upward motion). Meanwhile, bulk shear values are a fairly
unimpressive 25 to 30 knots. It's way too early to tell just how
strong any thunderstorms may become Monday afternoon and evening.

Just general shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into perhaps
Wednesday or so. You can pencil in a rain free day for Thursday at
this point as the trough exits off to our east and ridging builds in
from the west. Temperatures are expected to be generally near to
perhaps just slightly above normal for once.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 731 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019
vfr.

High pressure drifting east from the western lakes will provide
quiet wx into the start of the weekend. Not impossible that some
shallow ground fog could form late tonight just about anywhere,
but otherwiseVFR conditions are expected.

Light winds, with lake breezes in the afternoon and early evening.

Marine
Issued at 324 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019
north to northeast winds will persist through early evening with a
little bit of gustiness possible. Winds weaken and remain
northerly through Friday, then veer easterly for Saturday. A bit
more lake breeze development is likely along the coastlines Friday
and Saturday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Jz
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 52 mi32 min NNE 8.9 G 12 55°F 1011.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi32 min N 8.9 G 15 57°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi19 minVar 610.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F45°F41%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4NE3N4N6NE4NE4NE3N3CalmCalmN4N6N5N7N75N11
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1 day agoNE3CalmN7W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE4N4N35N7N7N7N6NE7NE7N7NE7NE6
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5--34NW7NE7NE7NE3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.