Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 9:26PM Saturday June 23, 2018 10:58 PM EDT (02:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 348 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers early in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201806240400;;999225 FZUS53 KAPX 231948 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 348 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-240400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240149
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
949 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Update
Issued at 947 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
overall pattern across the upper great lakes is pretty weak this
evening... Weak low pressure (1005mb) lies over lake erie... With a
cold front to the north of the state just clipping far northern lake
superior. Well-defined short wave trough PV anomaly over eastern
iowa northern missouri evident in water vapor imagery... And showers
have been developing ahead of this feature along the mississippi
river and tracking east-northeast. Had an "explosion" of light rain
across the tip of the mitt and straits region starting late
afternoon... So already had to make one forecast adjustment to cover
that. Think forcing that is driving this precipitation will wane
this evening and this area of precipitation should thin over
northern lower (but expand over northern lake michigan).

Meanwhile... Iowa short wave trough is expected to move across
southern lower michigan overnight... With an increase in shower
activity ahead of it as it interacts with deep moisture across lower
michigan (precipitable water values over 1.50 inches) and some weak
instability. Precipitation development likely to focus around
deformation axis to the north of this short wave trough... With some
potential for heavier downpours mainly along south of the m-55
corridor. Flash flood guidance mostly over 3.00" 3hr across this
area so it's unlikely this will be impactful. Fog also expected
to be an issue tonight over northeast lower and the higher terrain
across the interior... Could be dense in spots especially near
lake huron.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 349 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Significant rainfall possible late tonight for central lower...

high impact weather potential... Potential for locally heavy rainfall
along and south of m-55 late tonight into Sunday morning.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Weakening vertically-stacked low over
the eastern great lakes is shearing out this afternoon with a weak
upper ridge sliding over northern michigan in its wake. Abundant low
level moisture (pws in excess of 1.5") over much of northern lower
led to widespread stratus and areas of fog today, as well as
scattered morning showers. Those showers have mostly fizzled out
with the departure of the better forcing. Daytime heating across
northern lower has been limited by the formidable cloud cover in
most areas, leaving temperatures generally stuck in the 60s (except
for frankfort and manistee... The only areas where temps have pushed
into the low 70s). Meanwhile, fewer clouds over eastern upper
allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 70s there. Late
this afternoon there is a possibility for some additional isolated
showers popping up south of grand traverse bay. Weak low level
convergence is already starting to take shape in that area, and this
may be enough to trigger some convection, which most hi-res guidance
begins to develop around 5pm. Given weak forcing, virtually non-
existent instability, and light wind fields from the surface to the
mid levels per apx vad wind profile and forecast soundings, this
activity should remain weak and diminish with loss of daytime
heating this evening. Had tossed in a slight chance of thunder
earlier today for this area when it looked like it might see more
sun, but since that hasn't happened decided to remove it.

Later tonight, a digging longwave trough over eastern canada will
carve out a potent shortwave over northwest wi and northern lower
mi. This stronger forcing looks much more promising for producing
more significant rainfall south of m-72 where the corridor of higher
pws (in excess of 1.5") will reside, and especially along south of m-
55. Models have been hinting at this since at least yesterday, but
today there is good agreement, and 12z hi-res guidance strongly
supports the idea. Time of arrival will be well after midnight,
perhaps closer to daybreak Sunday for some areas. The concern is
that this activity will be slow-moving given the anemic synoptic
wind profile, and combined with significant forcing and abundant
moisture... Will this lead to prolonged heavy downpours for some
areas? Latest hrrr reflectivity paints this picture and frankly
looks a bit concerning. Href ensemble mean precip shows localized
rainfall in excess of 1 inch along south of m-55 by 8 am Sunday, but
individual members do show potential for locally 2+ inches in spots.

Areas most at risk for this very heavy rainfall would be roughly
from around manistee to gladwin, with lighter amounts across the
rest of northern lower and likely very little across eastern upper.

The good news is that given how dry we've been lately (25 to 75% of
normal for month-to-date rainfall), think the ground shouldn't have
too much issue handling these amounts... Unless significant rainfall
occurs over a very short period of time. Latest 3 and 6 hour flash
flood guidance would require around 2 to 4" of rainfall to lead to
issues along south of m-55, so not anticipating too much cause for
concern. But we'll be monitoring this potential closely as new model
data comes in through the evening. Instability will be limited, but
forecast soundings show classic near-saturated column with tall,
skinny cape. Not anticipating storms given very low instability, but
wouldn't entirely rule out a rumble of thunder or two.

Short term (Sunday through Tuesday)
issued at 349 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Active weather pattern continues...

high impact weather potential: possible thunder Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis forecast: a more active weather pattern continues.

Heavy rain is forecast south of m-55 with a shortwave over lower
michigan. This may produce an additional 0.25 to 0.50" (locally
higher) than what falls during the overnight hours. Will have to
keep an eye out for any flooding threats. The rest of northern lower
will see lingering shower chances throughout the day... Before
finally diminishing Sunday evening night as high pressure centered
over hudson bay builds into northern michigan along with much drier
air and aforementioned shortwave departs to the southeast. This high
pressure will diminish cloud cover from north to south beginning
Sunday night and provide a mostly clear and pleasant Monday
afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase once again Tuesday as a
low pressure system over the the central great plains brings our
next chances of rain Tuesday through Wednesday as it tracks through
the northern great lakes. Thunder chances will increase throughout
the day Tuesday as the warm front associated with the aforementioned
low pressure system provides some additional lift. Have thunder in
the forecast, but not too impressed with the bulk shear values (only
in the realm of 20-30kts). Best chances will be during the late
evening into Wednesday as a southwesterly low-mid level jet forms
ahead of the cold front associated with said system, along with
increasing ingredients for thunderstorm development. A fairly light
wind regime will remain throughout the forecast period.

Highs Sunday through Tuesday will reach into the 70s, while lows
will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 349 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
high impact weather potential: possible storms Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

A shortwave moving in from the northern plains will support showers
and storms Tuesday into Wednesday. Some deep moisture and
instability have the potential to line up over the region, but
whether or not the best shear support is in the right place at the
right time remains to be seen. As the frontal boundary sweeps
through the region on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorm chances
should diminish late in the day. A ridge starts to build into the
area late in the week, allowing temperatures to climb and stay above
normal to end the workweek.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 200 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
ifr ceilings will gradually shrink in coverage as afternoon
heating develops, but MVFR will still be fairly widespread. Also
some stubborn br holding on at apn with ifr visibilities expected
for the next few hours. Latest radar and satellite imagery show
showers and widespread cloud cover starting to slowly diminish,
but some additional light showers (perhaps a rumble of thunder)
may develop near tvc mbl later this afternoon.

A fairly strong disturbance will cross northern lower overnight.

With lingering abundant low level moisture, this will likely lead
to more widespread heavier shower activity after 06z. mbl and tvc
will be most impacted by any heavier rainfall. MVFR to ifr cigs
are likely once again, with some visibility restrictions from
heavier rainfall. Apn is likely to be impacted by some additional
br overnight. Shower chances diminish through the day Sunday with
cigs slowly improving towards afternoon. Winds will remain light
(< 10 knots) through the period.

Marine
Issued at 349 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through the
remainder of the weekend. Rain chances will remain for most of our
nearshore areas over lake huron today through Sunday as an area
of low pressure meanders over the great lakes. Lake michigan may
see some rain showers tonight through Sunday morning. Do not
expect any thunderstorm activity thru the weekend.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jpb
near term... Mk
short term... Tl
long term... Stj
aviation... Mk
marine... Tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 18 mi28 min N 5.8 G 7.8 59°F 56°F1009.7 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi74 min ENE 6 G 11 60°F 1007.1 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi78 min NNW 6 G 7 59°F 1008.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi65 minNE 410.00 miOvercast66°F64°F93%1007.3 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE6NE6NE5N6N5NW5N5N5N5N5NE3N4NE4
1 day ago--E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N5NE6NE6N4NE5N9N8N84NE5N6E3E3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6E3E4E7E864E7N8NE10N6N9NE11
G18
E7E6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.