Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 7:52PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 10:21 PM EDT (02:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:35PMMoonset 6:55AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1011 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Overnight..Light winds. Patchy fog through the night. Chance of rain and snow showers after midnight. Slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of drizzle. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of drizzle and snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Wave heights are valid for ice free areas. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201903211015;;678599 FZUS53 KAPX 210211 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1011 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-211015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 210215
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1015 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Update
Issued at 1015 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
low pressure continues to slowly make its way eastward out of
wisconsin and into lower michigan. Widespread light precip
continues to impact much of our CWA ahead of this system. Areal
coverage and intensity of precip has shown a gradual diminish over
the past couple of hours as better moisture and lift from this
system begins to shift east of our area. This downward trend will
continue as we head into the overnight hours as the surface low
center slides thru lower michigan... Shifting east of our state by
12z. Current mix of light rain and light snow will gradually
switch to mainly light snow before coming to an end from west to
east overnight. Expect little in the way of snow accumulation
overnight. Do expect areas of fog and low stratus will continue
to hang over our area thru the night and into early Thursday.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 323 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal threat of high impact
weather. Although scattered slick spots are possible with a
rain snow mix. In addition, reduced visibilities are likely due to
patchy fog.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A weak surface low will drop southeast
across the western great lakes tonight, accompanied by light rain
and or snow. The system is somewhat complex, as there are two
distinct upper-level waves providing the support for the
precipitation. The first wave is sliding east across northern il in
into southern lower mi, while the second wave is diving south
southeast across wi and mi. A more widespread area of rain snow is
pushing toward the southeast 1 3 of the forecast area from southern
lower mi, driven by WAA isentropic ascent ahead of the first wave
and diffluent upper flow between the two waves. More spotty
precipitation is occurring across upper mi and wi in the vicinity of
the surface front.

Surface temperatures have warmed sufficiently for the precipitation
to begin as rain over most of the forecast area late this
afternoon early this evening. However, cooling associated with the
heavier precipitation should be able to produce a mix or change to
snow. Nocturnal cooling would also support a change over to snow
later this evening where any precipitation persists. Also expect the
moistening from from the rain snow to support patchy fog over the
area for much of the night.

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 323 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Wintry mix Thursday, then colder Friday...

high impact weather potential: minor, with wintry pcpn making for
some possible slippery roads Thursday night and early Friday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: precipitation type and chances
through the end of the work week.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A narrow ridge of high pressure over the
great lakes will keep northern michigan dry early Thursday, before a
clipper, upper trough and wintry mixed precipitation drop into the
great lakes Thursday night and Friday. An area of high pressure will
then build into the upper midwest and great lakes to begin the
weekend.

Thursday should start off dry with exiting high pressure and model
soundings showing extremely limited moisture (850 500mb rh around 40-
50 percent) over the cwa. However the chance for pcpn increases
across the entire forecast area Thursday afternoon and evening as
the clipper drops across lake superior and into the NRN lakes.

850 500mb qvectors show the strongest convergence associated with
the approaching boundary influencing NRN michigan between 18z thurs
and 06z Friday. However, model soundings show limited mstr through
the column in advance of the sfc boundary, though increasing
briefing early Friday in advance of the approaching 500mb trough.

Model soundings show the best chance for widespread pcpn will be 00z
to 09z Friday as mid lvl increases while the upper trough settles
into the region. However Thursday evening, soundings show freezing
drizzle could be an issue with mstr in the lowest lvls (trapped
between the 0c and -10c isotherm) while extremely dry conds linger
aloft.

Will continue with the dry conditions with some sunshine Friday
afternoon and to begin the weekend, as an area of high pressure
builds into the state on the backside of Friday's exiting system.

Above normal temperatures are expected by Saturday with mid lvl
temps warming to around +2c in an upper ridge building in the
northern plains and WRN great lakes.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 323 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
limited chances for precipitation through the beginning of the
upcoming work week, as high pressure and weak zonal flow aloft
dominate the great lakes. The only chance of pcpn will be Sunday, as
a weakly organized boundary slowly drops south across the state.

Pcpn amounts Sunday appear to be insignificant with the moisture
starved boundary (narrow ribbon of 850-500mb rh around 70% right
along the boundary). Mid lvl temps between -4c and -8c will generate
nearly seasonal to slightly below normal temps in the upper 30s to
mid 40s through the period.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 709 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
low pressure currently centered just west of michigan will swing
thru our state tonight... Producing widespread rain showers
possibly mixed at times with snow. Conditions will drop to
MVFR ifr as this precip impacts our region this evening... With
areas of fog developing thru the overnight hours. Mainly dry
conditions are expected on Thursday... But MVFR CIGS will continue
to hang over the region. Some drizzle is possibly in the afternoon
as a weak areas of low pressure begins to approach our area from
the nw. Light southerly winds tonight will become west AOB 10 kts
on Thursday.

Marine
Issued at 323 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019
winds will continue to diminish this evening, shifting from
southwest to northwest, as a weak cold front slides across the area.

Another frontal boundary will move through Thursday night, with
local small craft advisory conditions developing out of the
northwest across parts of the area.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... Pb
short term... Sr
long term... Sr
aviation... Mr
marine... Pb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi41 min Calm G 0 33°F 1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi28 minN 06.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F35°F89%1014 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS44W6W7NW6W10W15W12W8CalmSW3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.