Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:00AMSunset 5:04PM Monday December 10, 2018 4:33 AM EST (09:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:47AMMoonset 8:08PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 255 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the late morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of freezing drizzle. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201812101600;;570310 FZUS53 KAPX 100755 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 255 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-101600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 100758
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
258 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 255 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Overall quiet and mainly cloudy conditions persist thru tonight...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Large area of strong high pressure
remains centered from the rockies thru the plains and into the great
lakes region early this morning. A stationary front remains poised
just north of the great lakes region attached to an area of moisture-
starved low pressure centered over north central canada. Closer to
home... A large area of low clouds is holding over much of michigan.

Some clearing is trying to take place around the leelanau peninsula
and grand traverse bay... But low clouds are quickly filling back in.

Temps are generally holding in the mid to upper 20s attm.

As we head into today and tonight... That area of low pressure will
slide SE to lake superior by early evening and will then stall over
the northern great lakes region thru tonight. Again... This system is
rather moisture-starved and relatively weak. Primary impact of this
system will be the arrival of colder air that will accompany it.

Persistent but shallow low level moisture will deepen just a bit as
this system slides thru the region. Colder air will activate the
lakes... Providing enough over-lake instability to produce scattered
light lake effect snow showers and possibly some patchy freezing
drizzle for the typical snowbelt areas late tonight. Expect this
light precip will have little to no impact for our cwa.

Otherwise... Expect overall conditions will remain mostly cloudy
today and tonight across our entire cwa. SE sections of our CWA may
see some breaks in the clouds this afternoon. High temps this
afternoon will reach into the lower 30s. Low temps tonight will cool
back into the low to mid 20s.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 255 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Remaining rather cloudy with snow shower chances...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Primary forecast concerns... Cloud cover and light precipitation
chances.

A weak northern stream short wave will bring small chances for light
precipitation Tuesday. This should be mainly in the form of light
snow showers as model soundings show cold air moisture deepening.

Not much going on Tuesday night then another weak trough moving in
from the west later Wednesday will bring another chance for a little
light snow. Highs in the lower and mid 30s and lows in the upper
teens to mid 20s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 255 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Maybe some snow or mixed rain and snow...

high impact weather potential... None expected at this time.

Still no big changes expected with the arctic air remaining to our
north. This leaves northern michigan generally in a zonal flow aloft
with a system or two to possibly contend with. Extended model
guidance is still not in very good agreement so confidence in the
details is on the low side. The first trough moves in from the west
late Wednesday into Wednesday night followed by another one moving
up from the south Thursday night into Friday. Thermal profiles are
marginal on precipitation type for both systems but precipitation
looks to fall mainly in the form of light snow. It then looks quiet
to start off the weekend with ridging aloft. A weak northern stream
trough will then bring chances for mainly snow showers heading into
Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal through the
period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1149 pm est Sun dec 9 2018
mainly MVFR cigs.

Stubborn low cloud deck holds across the TAF sites, though some
breaks are approaching mbl and perhaps even tvc from lake mi.

Still expect MVFR will prevail for overnight and much of Monday.

It is possible that the low clouds will thin out in spots Monday,
especially at tvc and apn.

Relatively light W to SW winds.

Marine
Issued at 255 am est Mon dec 10 2018
winds and waves will reach SCA criteria in most of our lake michigan
nearshore areas this afternoon and tonight in advance of low
pressure swinging thru the northern great lakes. Skies will remain
mostly cloudy during the first part of the work week. Scattered
light lake effect snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle are
possible late tonight into Tuesday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Tuesday for lmz342-344>346.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Jz
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 8.9 28°F 1022.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi54 min WNW 13 G 17 33°F 1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last
24hr
W10
G14
W11
G15
W11
W6
G13
W6
G11
W7
G12
W5
G8
W7
NW2
G5
NW4
G9
W5
G8
SW3
G9
W4
G9
W8
G11
W7
G12
W6
G9
NW5
G8
NW3
G7
NW4
G7
N3
NE1
--
NW1
NW3
G6
1 day
ago
NW12
G15
NW7
G13
NW7
G11
NW6
G9
NW8
G12
NW8
G15
W8
G12
W4
G9
W4
G8
NW5
G9
NW3
G8
W5
G8
W3
SW4
G7
SW4
G9
SW4
G9
W6
G12
SW5
G10
W7
G15
SW4
G7
W9
G12
SW5
G11
W10
G16
W10
G14
2 days
ago
E3
E2
E4
SE3
G6
E5
W11
G15
W10
G14
W9
G14
SW7
G13
W14
G19
W11
G15
W9
G14
W8
G16
N9
G15
NW5
G14
N7
G13
NW8
G12
NW9
G14
NW7
G11
NW10
G16
NW8
G13
NW12
G18
NW10
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi41 minN 09.00 miOvercast29°F23°F78%1022.9 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last 24hrSW4SW7W7W6W12W4W8W8W4SW6W7W6W7SW5W43S3S3CalmS3SW3S3S3Calm
1 day agoW10W10W9W8W7W10W7W8W9W9W7W7SW3SW3CalmCalmCalm3S3S3SW5Calm4SW6
2 days agoSW4CalmCalmS3S3SE34SE645W10SW76W6W5W8W5W4SW3S3W8S3SW6SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.