Tuesday, September18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Traverse City, MI

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Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:44PM Tuesday September 18, 2018 6:09 PM EDT (22:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:32PMMoonset 12:02AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 309 Pm Edt Tue Sep 18 2018
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201809190315;;843914 FZUS53 KAPX 181909 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 309 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-190315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Traverse City, MI
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location: 44.77, -85.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181905
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
305 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 303 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018

A quiet, cloudy night...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The cold front that moved through the
forecast area last night, is trying to move north again, but looks
like it will stall along or just south of m-55 by 12z wed. Moisture
will increase along the front tonight, so that rain showers will
threaten early Wednesday morning, but generally, the rain should
hold off until later.

Primary forecast concerns... Early arrival of the rain. Both the gfs
and ecwmf as well as the sref, and the NAM to a certain extent, hold
of the rain showers until after 12z, but the ECMWF does push the
rain close enough, that rain could be early. The hiresw-nmm model
has rain all over early, while the nam12 has some rain breaking out
along m-55 around 03z Wed and continues to fire something through
12z wed. These two may be the outliers, but shouldn't be discounted
at this point. However, feel confident enough that we will leave the
forecast dry through the night.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 303 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
high impact weather potential: thunderstorms chances Wednesday night
through Thursday... Some may be severe second half of Thursday.

A developing low pressure system over the northern plains will bring
moisture and synoptic support for rain showers beginning Wednesday
and more so Thursday as it traverses through the northern great lakes
region. Return flow (pwats of near 2.00 inches) begin over northern
michigan late Wednesday into Thursday bringing chances of much
needed rain. Wednesday will be more of a warm air advection hit and
miss shower situation as Thursday will become more widespread. The
cold front finally makes passage sometime early Friday, bringing yet
more chances of precipitation. Some locations may see up to 2.00
inches of QPF by Friday morning (wpc has the forecast area in slight
risk for excessive rainfall... Mostly eastern upper). Don't see much
in thunder happening until later into Thursday, although there is
not much instability, a southwesterly LLJ in excess of 50 knots
could produce damaging winds in even heavier rain showers... Let
alone any thunderstorms that develop. Probably be some embedded
thunder chances here and there, but mostly locally heavy rainfall
and possible damaging winds. Southerly winds will veer to the
northwest throughout the day Friday and be very gusty, with some
gusts nearing 35-40mph... Possibly locally higher. Highs will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s with the exception to Thursday ahead of
said cold front with waa... Some locations may see upper 70s; while
lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 303 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
high impact weather potential: possible frost Saturday and Sunday
mornings?
as aformentioned system above departs to the east, high pressure and
much drier air will move into the region... Providing precipitation
free weather and cooler temperatures Saturday. Looks like the
pattern will remain active though thereafter, with several
disturbances that may bring more chances of rain through the
forecast area at the end of the weekend into the next work week.

Highs will generally be in the 60s.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 123 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
lower cloud deck has been eaten away by the mixing of this
morning early afternoon. However, higher clouds are moving into
the region as blow off from the thunderstorms SW of the forecast
area. This may slow some of the mixing, along the lake shores
where the marine air has been entrenched. So the general
expectation is that the CIGS will come up through the rest of the
afternoon. Think that with the warm air at 5000 ft (850 mb) we
could see less instability over the great lakes, and less lower
lake effect clouds overnight.

Marine
Issued at 303 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
tonight through Thursday... A warm front moves north tonight, but is
stalled over c lower for a couple of days, as moisture moves over it
by Wednesday. However, the low pressure associated with this front
remains stalled in the central plains through Wednesday night. This
will keep the winds and waves below small craft criteria, until the
afternoon on Thursday. Thursday, afternoon and evening, the winds
will start to increase so that by Thursday evening, we should have
small craft wind gusts on the great lakes.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jl
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Jl
marine... Jl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45020 2 mi30 min N 5.8 G 7.8 63°F 70°F1 ft54°F
45183 18 mi40 min NNW 7.8 G 12 62°F 68°F1016.9 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 31 mi30 min N 7 G 9.9 63°F 1015.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 68 mi30 min NE 8 G 17 64°F 1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI3 mi17 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast65°F55°F73%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmN7
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N5N8N5N5NW4N53N7N5N4N6CalmNE7NE4N6N8NW7
1 day agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmS34SW6SW73W7SW7W9
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2 days ago3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS46S43SE444S43

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.