Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Little Sturgeon, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:25PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:03 AM CST (10:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 346 Am Cst Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..S wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Partly cloudy.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 20 kts veering veering W after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Scattered snow showers after midnight.
Friday..NW wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly cloudy. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Friday night..NW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly cloudy.
LMZ522 Expires:201811151730;;333460 FZUS53 KGRB 150946 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 346 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-151730-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Sturgeon, WI
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location: 44.8, -87.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 150932
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
332 am cst Thu nov 15 2018
forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Friday
issued at 331 am cst Thu nov 15 2018
the main weather concern in the short-term forecast will be the
potential for some light snow overnight into early Friday morning.

Only minor accumulations are expected, but there could be a few
slippery spots on area roadways for the Friday morning commute.

Today: quiet and warmer weather will remain in place today as high
pressure slowly drifts off to the east of the area. At the same
time, a surface low and 500mb shortwave will begin to approach the
western CWA by this afternoon. The main impacts from this will be
increased southerly flow across much of the area allowing for a few
10 to 20 mph wind gusts this afternoon as the pressure gradient
increases. The combination of sunshine through at least mid day
along with warmer air advecting into the area, will allow
temperatures to warm well into the 30s. The north-central may remain
a bit cooler, in the low to mid 30s as cloud cover increases through
the afternoon hours. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected.

Another area that will likely see increased cloud cover will be
right along the lake mi shoreline, where some lake effect clouds
have developed; however, this should gradually shift to the east
throughout the day.

Tonight into Friday: the aforementioned broad surface low will shift
from northern mn this evening to eastern upper mi and northern lower
mi by 12z Friday, then to southern ontario by 18z Friday. As this
happens, a surface trough cold front will pass through the area
overnight and to the east of the area by Friday morning. This system
does not have a lot of moisture to work with and is quick moving, so
the snowfall accumulation is expected to remain light. In fact most
models are only painting out around 0.03 inches or less of QPF as
the front traverses the area. This would equate to roughly a few
tenths of an inch with relatively low snow to liquid ratios around
or less than 10:1. Again, with most of the snow expected to be out
of the area early Friday morning, not expecting any major impacts;
however, the light dusting of snow may allow for some slick spots
during the Friday morning commute. Any early morning slick spots
should quickly improve as temperatures warm into the mid to possibly
upper 30s across much of northeastern eastern wi.

The rest of the day will be dry across all but north-central wi
as northwest flow kicks in and 850mb temperatures drop to around
-10c during the afternoon. This would lead to an increasing
chance of lake effect snow across mainly vilas county. Without any
shortwaves or added system forcing, the lake effect snow should
remain light with an inch or less accumulation expected through
Friday across vilas county. It does look like the precipitation
will remain in the form of snow as soundings continue to indicate
that the moisture is deep enough to allow ice crystals to form. By
the time the deeper moisture exits to the east, westerly
downslope winds over eastern northeastern wi will minimize the
chances of freezing drizzle.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
issued at 331 am cst Thu nov 15 2018
northwest upper flow is expected for most of this forecast period,
but there is a period of more zonal flow mid to late next week
between a couple of short waves.

Light snow is possible across parts of central and east-central
wisconsin Friday night into Saturday morning as a system passes to
our south. There is a better chance for snow in the north-central
part of the state where northerly surface flow over the warmer
waters of lake superior will bring snow showers Friday night and
Saturday. Surface winds become unfavorable of lake effect in
wisconsin on Sunday as high pressure passes southwest of the
state. QPF fields from 00z runs of the gfs, ECMWF and canadian
look quite different for early next week. The blend of those
solutions yields some low end chance or slight chances for snow,
mainly across northern wisconsin. Return flow around a departing
surface high should result in slightly above normal highs for
thanksgiving. Until then, much colder than normal temperatures
will prevail into early next with only slightly below normal highs
expected for Wednesday.

Aviation For 06z TAF issuance
issued at 1008 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
scattered to broken lake effect clouds between 1500 ft
and 2500 feet are possible near the lake michigan shore from mtw
to sue to 2p2 tonight, elsewhere it should be clear. Increasing
southwest winds just above the surface will produce low level wind
shear across northcentral wisconsin tonight through 15z Thursday.

Vfr conditions are expected Thursday, with middle and high clouds
arriving during the afternoon. An approaching cold front may produce
some light snow or rain and MVFR ifr conditions Thursday night.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Cooley
long term... ... Mg
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 21 mi33 min SW 7 G 8.9 27°F 40°F1023.7 hPa13°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 24 mi33 min W 5.1 G 7 28°F 1023.3 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 31 mi83 min S 8 G 16 33°F 1024 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 48 mi23 min S 1 G 4.1 29°F 1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI14 mi67 minSW 510.00 miFair24°F21°F91%1027.5 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI22 mi67 minWSW 310.00 miFair24°F21°F88%1027.6 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W7W5NW8NW6N6CalmCalmSW6S4SE9S7S8S5S5S4S7S6S7S6S7S6SW5SW4
1 day agoNW14
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2 days agoNW11NW11
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W9W9W10W7NW10NW11W10NW8NW5NW6W4NW7NW10NW8NW10NW11NW11NW8NW9NW10NW11NW13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.