Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Little Sturgeon, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:20PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 9:33 PM CDT (02:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:16PMMoonset 7:30AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Expires:201905221015;;251554 Fzus53 Kgrb 220147 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 847 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-221015- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 847 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2019
.small craft should exercise caution from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..E wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..SE wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..SE wind 5 to 10 kts veering sw in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thursday..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Partly cloudy.
LMZ522


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little Sturgeon, WI
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location: 44.8, -87.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 220039
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
739 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance
and new information added to update section

Update
Issued at 715 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
the primary push of the rain band around the mature cyclone over
the plains is to the north. That combined with a feed of dry air
from the east at low-levels should limit far eastern wi to just
some sprinkles until at least midnight. Despite the delay, the
band will eventually overspread the entire area overnight, then
exit off to the northeast tomorrow morning.

There are some indications that strong and possibly even severe
convection could develop tomorrow afternoon in the wake of the
main band. By early to mid-afternoon, a strong mid-upper level
speed MAX will be pushing into the area from the southwest. The
lfq of the speed MAX is likely to cut across central wisconsin
during the late afternoon, providing organized large-scale lift.

The models indicate steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8k km) across
the area, and deep layer shear around 50 knots. The main
uncertainty will be the amount of destabilization that occurs.

There would likely need to be a period of at least partial
sunshine in the wake of the primary rain band for a severe threat
to materialize. Computed mucapes off the models (for central
wisconsin) were generally from 800-2000 j kg, though the higher
end values are likely overdone and a result of an overestimate of
surface dew points. In any case, the situation tomorrow afternoon
will need to be monitored closely. The position of central
wisconsin relative to the upper low center tomorrow afternoon will
be similar to where northeast kansas was located this afternoon
when a band of low-topped supercells developed.

Will tweak the hwo for tomorrow to introduce the possibility of
strong storms. The forecast itself already contains a chance of
thunderstorms, and pops are probably okay since coverage of the
storms would likely be scattered.

Short term Tonight and Wednesday
issued at 236 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
the main forecast concerns to be timing of rain showers to
overspread the area tonight and extent of thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon.

The 19z msas surface analysis showed the center of high pressure
situated over northeast sections of lake superior with low
pressure located over southwest ks. Gusty east winds between these
two weather systems with some gusts greater than 30 mph over parts
of central wi. A warm front also extended eastward from the low
pressure into the ohio valley.

The nearly vertically-stacked, strong system is forecast to lift
north-northeast across the central plains tonight as the warm
front moves north toward southern sections of the great lakes. An
initial band of waa-induced light rain showers this evening to be
replaced by lift from the approaching front with a more widespread
light to moderate rain showers after midnight. Instability looks
too weak to carry any thunder. However, heavier rainfall could
transport stronger winds aloft to the surface, thus a few gusts
later tonight could reach the 30-40 mph range. Min temperatures to
be in the lower to middle 40s north, middle to upper 40s south.

The weakening system is forecast to move northeast into the upper
ms valley, while the warm front shifts into the great lakes on
Wednesday. Shower activity will come to an end across central
east-central wi during the morning with a continued chance of rain
showers across the north. A concern for Wednesday afternoon is the
chance for additional showers and some thunderstorms to redevelop
over the area as a 140 knot upper jet to be overhead and mid-level
lapse rates steepen. Do not see any of these storms turning strong
or severe, but small hail and gusty winds will be possible. High
temperatures to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s near lake
mi, around 60 degrees north and lower to middle 70s far south.

Long term Wednesday night through Tuesday
issued at 236 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
main concern in the extended forecast will be the potential for
additional rainfall and continued elevated flows on area rivers. In
addition, temperatures are expected to warm to above average levels
for the last half of the work week with increasing chances of strong
to conditionally severe thunderstorms.

Wednesday night into Thursday: a surface low and vertically stacked
upper-level low center will shift eastward, crossing northwest wi
and much of upper mi. The better deeper moisture and better forcing
will lift north of much of the cwa, keeping most of the showers and
thunderstorms across northern mn upper mi lake superior for this
time period. The best chance of seeing continued showers and a few
thunderstorms would be across mainly the north half of the area, and
especially close to the wi up border during the evening hours. High
pressure will then quickly build across the area late Thursday into
Thursday evening as upper ridging builds into the area. This will
allow for a break in the precipitation overnight through the day
Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s with
high temperatures warming into 60s north-central and the 70s
elsewhere on Thursday.

Thursday night into Friday: the next low pressure system is expected
to lift northward through the plains once again, lifting a warm
front toward southern wi late Thursday night through the day
Friday. This will lead to another round of showers and
thunderstorms from Friday morning through late Friday afternoon.

If the clouds clear from early day showers and thunderstorms, then
stronger afternoon thunderstorms will become increasingly likely
as instability increases and shear values increase. This will be
largely dependent upon how far north the warm front lifts. In
addition, there will also be some upper-level jet support during
the late afternoon hours. Models have trended a bit slower and a
bit farther to the south with the warm front positioning. This
would place the better chance of seeing some stronger
thunderstorms possibly severe over portions of central and east-
central wi, with the best chances over southern wi. This would be
near the warm front and ahead of the cold front as it passes
through during the afternoon early evening hours. Overall details
will need to be fine- tuned as we get closer to the end of the
week, but it will be worth keeping an eye on over the next few
days. These details will make all the difference in the severe
potential. Temps will continue to be above normal with afternoon
highs running into the 70s (warmest central east-central) with
overnight lows only dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s.

Friday night through Saturday night: high pressure is expected to
pass across the area through this time period, allowing for another
break in the precipitation. Highs will be in the 70s with overnight
lows in the 40s and 50s.

The rest of the extended: a weak system cold front is expected to
pass through the area Sunday night into Monday morning. This may
give a small chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm during
this time period, but not expecting a widespread wash out. Perhaps a
more widespread precip event may occur for Tuesday into the middle
of the week. Generally went with a consensus of the models during
this time period, giving highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the
40s.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 715 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
a large rain band wrapping around a mature cyclone lifting nne
from the central plains will overspread the area tonight. A feed
of dry air from the east at low levels will allow ceilings to
hold up initially, but expect they will eventually trend down to
MVFR and ifr (central wi) by daybreak. The primary rain band will
shift off to the northeast tomorrow, but scattered showers and
thunderstorms will probably develop during the afternoon. Llws
will develop rapidly this evening.

Hydrology
Issued at 236 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
even through most rivers and streams have crested and started to
slowly fall, additional rainfall tonight and again later this
week will keep the rivers elevated. In addition, the release of
water from dams along the wisconsin and menominee rivers will
generate fast flows downstream. Anyone living near rivers and
streams should keep aware of the latest weather information and
be prepared to seek higher ground should any flooding occur.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... ... ... Skowronski
short term... ..Kallas
long term... ... Cooley
aviation... ... .Skowronski
hydrology... ... Kallas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 21 mi39 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 50°F 54°F1018 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 24 mi39 min ENE 8 G 11 46°F 1016.8 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 48 mi53 min E 6 G 8 50°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI14 mi37 minE 710.00 miOvercast53°F35°F51%1020.9 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI22 mi37 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F39°F61%1018.7 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.