Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Empire, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:42PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 8:22 AM CDT (13:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:19PMMoonset 6:52AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 430 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Wednesday evening...
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Patchy fog early in the morning. Slight chance of showers early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:201809251630;;176303 FZUS53 KAPX 250830 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 430 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ345-346-251630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Empire, MI
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location: 44.81, -86.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 251141
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
741 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 418 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Warm today with showers storms late...

high impact weather potential... Chance for damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts late today this evening.

It looks like it will be a fairly busy weather day with a variety of
issues to think about. A moist south southeasterly flow is in place
at the moment with most spots seeing low clouds and patchy fog. In
addition, there are a few showers across the region. The showers are
expected to lift off to our north over the next couple of hours.

This should leave the low clouds with the question being how long
will they stick around. Meanwhile, an upstream surface cold front
approaches the region late today and moves through northern michigan
late tonight. At this point with the approach of the front, expect
a majority of the low cloudiness to mix out later this morning
into early this afternoon. If this is realized then temperatures
could really sky rocket with 850 mb temperatures in the plus 13 to
14 degree range. Will lean toward the warmer end of guidance and
have raised highs into the mid 60s north to the mid and upper 70s
across northeast lower. Showers and storms are then expected to
move into northwest zones late this afternoon and across the
remainder of the region early tonight. Winds aloft are quite beefy
with 0-6 km bulk shear a hefty 40 to 50 knots. So any storm that
forms has the potential to produce damaging wind gusts (especially
across northeast zones along and south of the m-55 corridor where
heating will be maximized) resulting in mixed layer capes to push
up toward about 1500 j kg. Activity should diminish overnight
with west northwest winds picking up in the wake of the departing
cold front. Cooler tonight with lows ranging from the mid 40s far
north to the mid 50s southeast.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday)
issued at 418 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

A return to cooler conditions with showers at times...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Cold air advection will be in full force
Wednesday morning behind a departing cold front, slackening somewhat
by afternoon as pressure and 1000-500mb thickness gradients relax a
bit. A potent shortwave overhead will push east of the area early,
with negative vorticity advection, rising h5 heights, and surface
high pressure building in the rest of the day. As the surface high
pushes east Wednesday night, southwesterly return flow and weak warm
air advection will develop over the region ahead of another
approaching cold front.

Primary forecast concerns... Lingering shower chances on Wednesday
and additional showers on Thursday.

Shallow boundary layer moisture will linger through Wednesday
morning with cold air advection steepening the low level lapse rates
nicely. 850mb temps are progged to drop to around 1c, which will
yield favorable delta TS over lake michigan and lake superior to
generate modest lake-induced instability. Coupled with upsloping
effects from the northwesterly low level flow, this should be enough
to generate some lake effect showers and or drizzle over a large
portion of eastern upper and northern lower, at least through the
morning hours. Diurnal mixing looks looks to dry the boundary layer
sufficiently to bring an end to shower chances for most areas by
afternoon, though clouds will likely hang around for awhile.

As clouds diminish somewhat heading into Wednesday night and the
boundary layer decouples, there may be a few areas that cool
sufficiently to introduce a small threat for patchy frost. The au
sable river valley in particular, along with some other sheltered
locations, may dip into the upper 30s.

Moisture advection will ramp up Thursday morning as southwest flow
increases ahead of the next approaching cold front. Forecast
soundings show rather deep mixing up to 800mb in some areas, perhaps
tapping into winds of 30 to 40+ knots aloft. Breezy conditions are
likely, perhaps with even a few gale force gusts over lake michigan
between late morning and mid afternoon. Shower chances will increase
over eastern upper through the day, spreading across much of
northern lower through the afternoon.

Long term (Thursday night through Monday)
issued at 418 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Cool and showery conditions will persist through the remainder of
the forecast period with an active longwave troughing pattern
keeping a tight grip on the northern conus. The aforementioned cold
front will push through northern michigan Thursday night with
scattered showers. Weak disturbances will provide small chances for
additional showers Friday night, with cold air advection dropping
temperatures into the mid to upper 30s by Saturday morning. Patchy
frost will be possible in some areas if clouds and winds diminish
sufficiently. High pressure is progged to move overhead on Saturday,
setting the stage for a chilly, frosty Saturday night across
northern michigan. A baroclinic zone to our south will lift
northward heading into Monday as a potent system lifts into the
great lakes, perhaps bringing widespread rain.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 728 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
tough aviation forecast this go around. Low level moisture is
entrenched across northern michigan for the most part. However,
cigs vary from site to site from ifr to evenVFR and this will
likely change over the next few hours. Low level moisture should
eventually mix out by around noon. Increasing chances for showers
and even thunderstorms later today into this evening as a surface
cold front approaches from the northwest. Low clouds will then
return late and westerly winds will become gusty behind the front.

Marine
Issued at 418 am edt Tue sep 25 2018
no headlines through this evening, though southerly winds will be
gusty at times (up to around 20 knots). Winds will then increase
late tonight behind a cold front moving through the waters with
gusty westerly winds expected Wednesday. Thunderstorms are
possible from late today into early tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 8 pm edt Wednesday
for lsz321-322.

Near term... As
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... As
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi42 min SSW 2.9 G 7 65°F 1011.9 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 41 mi32 min SW 12 G 14 64°F 64°F3 ft1010.3 hPa63°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 57 mi42 min S 11 G 16 65°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI15 mi27 minS 75.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F98%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE8SE8S9
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1 day agoSE3SW5S4W5W5W5W5N6N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E4E6SE4SE7E7
G14
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2 days agoSE3W5W3W5SW6SW7SW6SW6SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.