Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Empire, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:05AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday June 21, 2018 3:22 AM CDT (08:22 UTC) Moonrise 2:04PMMoonset 1:32AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 257 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the morning. Partly cloudy early in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:201806211500;;866739 FZUS53 KAPX 210657 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 257 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ345-346-211500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Empire, MI
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location: 44.81, -86.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 210651
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
251 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 248 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
impactful weather: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
another quiet early morning. Sfc high pressure was over far nrn
ontario, while closed stacked low pressure was swirling in the heart
of the country. In between, there was a moisture-starved back door
cold front with only some associated patchy mid level cloud. We were
still seeing some higher clouds streaming across the SRN cwa,
associated with the deformation zone from the stack system. The
general trend via satellite RUC analysis however, was for increased
atmospheric drying as a shortwave was pressing SE out through the
great lakes from an upper low over far eastern canada. The closest
showers and storms were in iowa il in, tied to the low pressure and
all of the deeper moisture, forcing and instability. Temperatures
were falling in through the 50s in nearly calm conditions and decent
radiational cooling.

Fairly seasonable weather continues. The canadian shortwave
continues to press SE and shoves the aforementioned back door cold
front through all of NRN michigan early this morning. Again, may see
some patchy mid level clouds, but that's about it. Will also see the
departure of the higher level clouds across the srn CWA as the
entire synoptic pattern also heads further south, while the closed
system in the midwest drops into far SRN il tonight. This is going
to leave NRN michigan in an axis of deepest drying which will lay
across the NRN great lakes. No forcing across the region, with
little chance for afternoon lake breezes due to a slight tightening
of the pressure gradient between the high to the north and low to
the south. Skies are gonna be sunny today with only a chance for
some possible higher level clouds returning late tonight across the
srn cwa.

There is some cooling behind the cold front this morning, which will
lower afternoon highs from yesterday for most areas. Looking for
rampant readings in the low to mid 70s. Cooler mid to upper 60s for
coastal areas of NE lower with those easterly winds coming off lake
huron, and warmest upper 70s to near 80f in easterly downsloping
areas of the gtv bay. Pressure gradient weakens a touch tonight, and
many low lying areas are likely to decouple to calm near calm. This
sets up decent radiational cooling. Should see 30f near 30f diurnal
swings for many areas. Readings expected to generally be in the
crisp 40s. The typically colder lowest lying areas... Maybe some
upper 30s??

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 248 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Friday through Saturday:

Perhaps a bit of rain to start the weekend?...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: a bit of an interesting forecast as
developing mid level low over the central plains makes a run at the
lower lakes Friday night into Saturday, all-the-while remarkably
persistent northeast canada troughing remains slow to yield.

Northern michigan largely centered between these two features,
making northward extent and overall areal coverage of mid level low
attendant showers a formidable challenge to start the weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: addressing that rain shower
threat Friday night and Saturday.

Details: daylight hours of Friday continue to look dry and
seasonable as elongated surface high pressure only reluctantly
yields. Likely to see some increasing high and mid level clouds from
the south through the day, with more complete saturation and
increasing shower chances likely holding off until the evening
hours. Confidence decreases significantly regarding those Friday
night and Saturday shower chances. Pattern recognition and simple
recent history sure favors a more south displaced passage of this
mid level low trough axis. Dprog dt's of nearly all mid range
guidance has definitely trended this way, focusing strongest ascent
and deepest moisture advection into the northern ohio valley and
southern great lakes. Lack of any instability in light east flow
regime definitely not helping the rain-producing cause. Of course,
still time for the overall look and flavor of the larger scale
pattern to change, so sure don't want to make too many significant
changes. With that said, if current trends continue, a downward
adjustment in both areal coverage and overall rain chances may be
required in the coming days. East winds and increasing cloud cover
will keep temperatures a bit cooler Saturday.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 248 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
high impact weather potential: none
primary dynamics low pressure exit east Saturday evening. There is
some indication of a secondary shortwave trough bringing a few light
showers along with it Saturday night into Sunday morning. While
general lack of forcing and moisture argue otherwise, cannot
completely argue with at least a low end chance for a few showers
across parts of northern lower michigan. High pressure both at the
surface and aloft expected to bring dry and mild weather to start
next work week. Guidance world has next shortwave trough arriving
toward mid-week, bringing the next chance for rain showers to the
region. Of course, nothing set in stone yet, with changes to both
timing and magnitude of this wave fully expected.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1158 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
vfr.

High pressure near james bay will move southward, bringing dry and
somewhat cooler low-level air. Some mid high clouds will be seen,
and perhaps some stratocu will drift into apn.VFR conditions will
continue.

Light NE to E winds tonight, with east winds becoming a bit
breezier on Thursday.

Marine
Issued at 248 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
high pressure to the north and low pressure passing from the heart
of the country to the ohio valley tonight will result in a little
bit of tightening in an easterly pressure gradient across the great
lakes. This tightening and funneling coastal convergence is likely
to result in low end small craft advisories through the straits
region today. Skies will be rather clear over this time, but higher
level clouds will return Friday and thicken through Friday night and
Saturday. This is due to the aforementioned low pressure which will
lift north and through the SRN eastern great lakes Friday night and
Saturday. This will bring a return of some showery weather to mainly
lake huron. Not expecting any other advisory level winds over this
time.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... mb
long term... mb
aviation... Jz
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 17 mi52 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 60°F 59°F1013.4 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi42 min E 2.9 G 6 58°F 1012.9 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 41 mi42 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 49°F 45°F1012.1 hPa47°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 57 mi42 min NE 5.1 G 6 60°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI15 mi27 minENE 510.00 miFair62°F57°F86%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6W7W4W6W7W6W5N6N3N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE5
1 day agoCalmCalmE6SE4SE4E5SE6S3CalmCalmNW4NW4N6N6NE5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW7SW9
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CalmSW6CalmNW5CalmN8N9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.