Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 4:30 AM   Moonset 6:30 PM

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LMZ345 Expires:202405061215;;697784 Fzus53 Kapx 060205 Nshapx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service gaylord mi 1005 pm edt Sun may 5 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lakes huron - . Michigan and superior.
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lmz344-345-061215- sleeping bear point to grand traverse light mi- point betsie to sleeping bear point mi- 1005 pm edt Sun may 5 2024
Overnight - Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 060341 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1141 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze potential tonight, especially across inland areas.

- Shower/storm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Cool temperatures, rain chances through the end of the week.

UPDATE
Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Temperatures continue to spiral downward with excellent conditions for such...mainly clear skies (just some thin high clouds across southern areas), light winds, and a dry airmass.
Expect this trend to continue. Still think inherited lows well down into the lower and middle 30s across interior areas will be realized by sunrise Tuesday, with even a few upper 20s possible in our typical ice-box locations. Inherited frost advisory will remain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Mid/upper-level troughing will continue to slide across southeast Canada tonight and Monday as upstream ridging amplifies with time, eventually working over the Great Lakes by the end of the period.
Subsidence aloft generated at the ridge/trough inflection point will build surface high pressure directly overhead tonight, and largely remain in place through Monday.

Forecast Details:

Frost/freeze tonight -- Rain-free weather with sunny/clear skies is in store for the area through Monday with aforementioned high pressure in place. The main concern will be frost/freeze conditions across a large swath of northern Michigan late tonight into Monday morning. Calm winds and clear skies will support efficient radiational cooling tonight, allowing daytime temperatures in the 60s and low 70s to plummet into the low to mid 30s by early Monday morning. As is typical with these set ups, localized low-lying areas speckled across the interior higher terrain -- including obs sites near Atlanta, Roscommon, Grayling, Indian River, and Pellston -- may even see temperatures dip into the 20s as the coldest air from surrounding higher terrain pools in these locations. Protective measures should be taken for sensitive vegetation so they are not damaged, such as bringing plants indoors and the use of frost fans given the strong inversion that will be in place.

Otherwise, temperatures on Monday look to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s across most of the area -- with slightly cooler temperatures along the immediate lakeshores.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Pattern Synopsis:

Highly amplified ridging over the Great Lakes will be pushed eastward and separated as a strong jet associated with an impressive mid/upper-level low centered over the northern Great Plains punches over the region. A weak surface cyclone supported by said troughing will also work across the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Troughing looks to remain in place through the end of the week.

Forecast Details:

Shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday -- Quiet weather is expected to remain in place into Tuesday afternoon before showers and thunderstorm chances return late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. There's still uncertainty as to how far north favorable warm/moist air gets late Tuesday into Wednesday, which will impact thunderstorm potential. Current confidence is that thunderstorm chances are low, but non-zero, and that best chances for severe storms will confined well south of the CWA near the MI/IN/OH border. A few showers may linger across the eastern U.P.
and northeast lower, but the majority of shower activity is expected to move out of the area by Wednesday morning.

Cool temperatures, rain chances through the end of the week -- As aforementioned troughing pivots overhead, cooler temperatures will return to the region. Highs in the 50s are expected for most areas through the second half of the week into the weekend. Best chances for rain will come on Thursday, but additional chances for rain are also possible at times through the first half of the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions under mostly clear/sunny skies through this taf period. Light winds this morning, with local lake breeze development expected this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for MIZ016>018-021>024- 027>030-032>035.
MARINE...None.

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