Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elk Rapids, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:17PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 5:33 PM EST (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:47PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 255 Pm Est Mon Jan 28 2019
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West wind up to 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5. This is the last nearshore forecast issuance of the season. The nearshore forecast will resume around march 18 2019.
LMZ323 Expires:201901290400;;064933 FZUS53 KAPX 281955 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 255 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-290400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elk Rapids, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 202021
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
321 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 321 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Another wave of accumulating snow along with some freezing
drizzle...

high impact weather potential... Accumulating snow... Especially
across eastern upper michigan and tip of the mitt... And areas of
freezing drizzle..Resulting difficult travel conditions thru tonight.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Complex area of low pressure extends
from the northern rockies thru the northern and central plains this
afternoon. Back edge of the initial wave if snow has pushed to near
the straits area... With patchy freezing drizzle occurring south of
that area of snow where mid level moisture has diminished. Narrow
band of heavy snow provided a quick inch of new snow across a good
portion of northern lower michigan so far today. More robust area of
snow continues to develop north of the low center... Currently
impacting the dakotas... Upper mississippi valley... Wisconsin and
upper michigan.

As we head into late afternoon and evening... The surface low center
will continue to track NE thru the upper mississippi valley and
western great lakes... Reaching the ontario quebec border by early
Thursday morning. Upper low will follow right behind... With deep
troughing extending back thru northern michigan in its wake on
Thursday.

Latest near term models still track the most persistent and heaviest
snowfall across eastern upper and far northern lower michigan late
this afternoon and evening. Locations south of the tip of the mitt
will see less QPF as mid level dry air limits snowfall and lends to
continued development of areas of freezing drizzle mixing with any
light snow. Northern sections of our CWA could see an additional 3
to 5 inches of additional snow thru tonight... With the rest of
northern michigan along and south of m-32 seeing 1 to 2 inches of
additional snowfall with some minor ice accumulations due to the
freezing drizzle. Will keep all headlines in effect thru this
evening as this second stronger wave of precip pushes thru the
region. Ongoing WAA ahead of the low along with thick cloud cover
will hold temps in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees thru the night.

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 321 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Light lake effect Thursday then a wintry mix Saturday...

high impact weather potential... Medium.

Primary forecast concerns... Timing and precipitation type Saturday.

It still appears to be marginally cold enough for some light
westerly flow lake effect Thursday into Thursday evening. Little to
no accumulation is expected. High pressure at the surface and aloft
should then make for quiet weather Friday into Friday evening.

Attention will then begin to turn to a developing area of low
pressure moving northeast out of the southern plains. Extended
models have varied on the track of this system but have been in good
agreement that it rapidly intensifies as it heads toward the western
great lakes. Precipitation from this system looks like it
overspreads the region during the day Saturday. Models have been in
agreement that a warm nose aloft develops Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night in advance of the system. So any initial snow or
sleet should change over to freezing rain or rain. This will likely
lead to hazardous driving conditions. Highs moderate from the upper
20s to mid 30s Thursday to the mid to upper 30s Saturday.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 321 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Another high impact event likely Sunday into Sunday night...

high impact weather potential: potentially very high.

Models continue to bomb out low pressure as it moves across northern
michigan during the day Sunday. This will lead to a tremendous
pressure gradient between the deepening low and strong high pressure
across south central canada. This scenario would lead to strong and
very gusty winds. Colder air sweeping in behind the exiting system
will likely lead to falling temperatures (and a possible flash
freeze) as well as to change precipitation over to snow. I continue
to be concerned that very gusty west will result in very low
visibilities from widespread blowing and drifting snow later Sunday
into Sunday night (possibly even blizzard conditions). Lake effect
snow showers then follow for Monday. Another low pressure system
could impact the region during the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.

Looking farther ahead, a shot of arctic air is poised to invade the
region late next week (oh joy!).

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1213 pm est Wed feb 20 2019
low pressure will track thru lake superior tonight and into quebec
on Thursday. Areas of light snow and patchy freezing will continue
to impact all of northern lower michigan thru tonight in advance
of this system... With the most persistent and heaviest snowfall
developing late this afternoon and into this evening. Conditions
will deteriorate to ifr as this persistent snowfall develops
during that timeframe. Some light westerly flow lake effect snow
showers will develop on Thursday on the backside of the departing
low pressure system. SE winds 10 to 20 kts with some higher gust
this afternoon and evening will become SW overnight and then
westerly on Thursday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 11 pm est this evening for
miz025>036-041-042.

Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for miz008-
015>024.

Near term... Mr
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi54 min E 5.1 G 13 30°F 1007.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 77 mi94 min ESE 16 31°F 1005.8 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI9 mi41 minVar 6 G 156.00 miLight Snow33°F23°F66%1006.6 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi39 minESE 57.00 miLight Snow31°F21°F67%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S43S4SE3SE45E7SE6E8
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1 day agoN3W3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS4SW8
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2 days agoNE12NE10NE10NE9NE9NE8NE9N8
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NE9NE6CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE7NE7N5N11N8NW7NW7N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.