Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elk Rapids, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:07PM Friday May 24, 2019 6:00 AM EDT (10:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:37AMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 257 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
Today..Light winds. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201905241500;;368353 FZUS53 KAPX 240657 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 257 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-241500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elk Rapids, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240655
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
255 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 255 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Marginal risk of severe storms tonight...

high impact weather potential... A few strong to severe storms
tonight... With damaging winds and large hail the primary threats.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Low pressure is developing to the lee of
the rockies over the southern and central plains early this morning.

Associated warm front extends from the developing low eastward thru
northern missouri to just north of the ohio valley. Several areas of
convection continue to fire around the surface low and north of the
associated warm front. Closer to home... Dry wx persists across our
entire CWA with an area of low clouds spreading southward out of
ontario and into most of our area under the direction of N NW low
level flow.

As we head into today... Low level flow will shift to the east this
morning as the upstream warm front begins to lift northward toward
michigan. Initial push of convection north of this warm front will
spread into the southern half of our CWA by around mid morning and
will continue to impact locations south of m-32 into the afternoon
hours. Instability will be insufficient for the development of
thunder today... So any precip that does develop will be strictly
shower activity. Under mainly cloudy skies and while remaining north
of the warm front... High temps this afternoon will only warm into
the lower 60s for much of our cwa.

Conditions become more favorable for thunder development and
possibly a few stronger marginally severe storms tonight as the warm
front lift into our area. Instability axis reaches into the southern
half of our cwa... With mucapes reaching 1500 j kg for areas along
and south of m-72 by around 06z. 850 mb theta E ridge axis will also
poke into our southern CWA tonight driven by a SW low level jet max.

Expect the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms by
late evening and into the overnight hours... Again with a marginal
risk of a few strong severe storms with damaging winds and large
hail the primary threats.

Short term (Saturday through Sunday)
issued at 255 am edt Fri may 24 2019
high impact weather potential: an isolated thunderstorm remains
possible across parts of northern michigan on Saturday.

Pattern synopsis forecast: strong upper-level ridging anchored
across the southeastern states early this morning is expected to
remain in place through the upcoming holiday weekend. Mid-level
ridging and attendant warmer more moist air is expected to build
into the upper midwest great lakes, but with additional shower storm
chances stretching into Saturday as a cold front, tied to low
pressure off to our northwest, slides across the forecast area. By
early Sunday, high pressure is expected to be sagging into the
region from the north bringing a return to dry weather to wrap up
the memorial day weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: high temperature trends, along
with lingering shower storm chances Saturday.

Latest trends continue to suggest a cold front slipping northwest to
southeast across the forecast area Saturday afternoon evening with
cloudier conditions than previously appeared, especially across the
eastern two-thirds of the forecast area as scattered lingering
precip continues to exit stage right. Will continue the inherited
thought of high temperatures topping out a couple of degrees cooler
than previously thought, but overall still a fairly warm day with
highs ranging from the mid 60s north to the mid-upper 70s across
much of northern lower. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest a few
diurnally driven showers and or a few rumbles of thunder across the
u.P and tip of the mitt Saturday afternoon into the evening,
although figuring storm coverage will be more the exception rather
than the rule.

High pressure gradually sags into the region from the north late
Saturday night into Sunday along with cooler temperatures despite
increased sunshine over Saturday. High temperatures expected to
range from the mid 60s - low 70s area-wide... Coolest across the u.P.

And nearest the lake shores.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 255 am edt Fri may 24 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Rather tranquil conditions continue Sunday night through much of
Monday with the next western wave expected to arrive as early as
Monday night into Tuesday with shower storm chances continuing at
times through midweek. Longer range guidance suggest a bit more of a
pattern shift, especially toward next weekend, as a closed low and
potentially much cooler temperatures drop through central canada
into the northern western great lakes. Lots of time for the details
to fall in to place on that, but will trend temperatures cooler than
normal toward the tail end of next work week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1149 pm edt Thu may 23 2019
ifr CIGS at pln part of tonight, MVFR elsewhere.

Lower CIGS will overspread the area from the north, as cooler air
briefly spreads in. This will bring ifr (pln) to MVFR
(tvc mbl apn) CIGS at times overnight into early Fri morning.

Those CIGS will improve quickly Fri morning. Our next round of
showers will spread into NW lower mi in the late afternoon and
evening. mbl is the most likely place to see MVFR conditions fri
evening.

Light winds overnight and Fri morning, a SE breeze Fri afternoon
and evening.

Marine
Issued at 255 am edt Fri may 24 2019
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Saturday night.

Low pressure and an associated warm front will lift thru the western
great lakes region thru tonight... Producing periods of showers
and storms today thru Saturday. Winds and waves may be higher in
and around thunderstorms.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Jz
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 45 mi21 min W 3.9 G 3.9 41°F 39°F1 ft1021.4 hPa41°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 77 mi61 min NE 1.9 G 17 46°F 1021 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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SE10
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G23
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SE16
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SE23
G28
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G16
SE9
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NE21
G29
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G23
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E8
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W4
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SE12
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E9
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SE12
SE12
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI9 mi68 minENE 310.00 miOvercast49°F46°F90%1019.8 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi66 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist49°F46°F90%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
G19
W10W11W15
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G32
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W16
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G33
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G25
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W14NW8N6N6NE3N3N9NE5NE3Calm
1 day agoCalmNE6E9
G23
SE8
G19
SE7
G18
SE16
G27
SE5SE15
G28
SE12
G22
S14
G21
S10
G18
5S9
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S8S44W4S8SW10
G20
S7S9S13
G22
S6SW7
2 days agoCalmCalmNE3NE5NE7N7N8N6NE7NE84CalmW5SW3W3SE10
G19
SE54SE4E11E7SE4E6E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.