Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elk Rapids, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 5:15PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:26 AM EST (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:27PMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1020 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Thursday evening...
Today..West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest early in the evening. Cloudy in the afternoon then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of drizzle and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201811142330;;295859 FZUS53 KAPX 141520 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1020 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-142330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elk Rapids, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 141526
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1026 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Update
Issued at 1026 am est Wed nov 14 2018
large area of strong high pressure is centered from the western
great lakes thru the mid mississippi valley into the southern
plains late this morning. Building subsidence and arrival of drier
air is leading to a steady diminishing trend in all remaining lake
effect snow showers across the western great lakes... And expect
this diminishing trend will continue this afternoon. All precip
should come to an end by early this evening once the surface
ridge axis shifts east of michigan and WAA begins ahead of our
next system. Have dropped remaining winter wx advisory for
chippewa county... With only an inch or less of additional snow
accumulation expect for the rest of the day.

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 336 am est Wed nov 14 2018

A well deserved break in the active weather coming...

high impact weather potential: just some lingering light snow
accumulations this morning, especially across eastern upper michigan.

Pattern synopsis forecast: elongated trough axis and core of coldest
temperature anomalies on there way out, as large area of surface
high pressure builds into the region. Despite subtle warming aloft,
conditions remain more than cold enough to continue to drum up the
lake processes, with this especially being the case across lake
superior where maximized fetch length and enhanced low level
converge along lake aggregate troughing is helping compensate for a
lowering subsidence inversion and loss of that synoptic scale
support. The result, still some decent multi-bands rotating into
eastern upper michigan, with transient snowfall rates likely
approaching an inch per hour at times. Further south, lake snow
intensity and organization on a notable downward trend across the
northwest lower lake belts, a result of a much shorter fetch and
complete disconnect from lake superior contribution.

Large scale features will continue to remain quite progressive today
and tonight, allowing mid level heights to rebound and upstream
surface high pressure to build directly across the great lakes. This
not only sets the stage for an end to the lake snows, but will
likely allow at least some areas to see quite a bit of sunshine by
this afternoon.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: additional snow accumulations
this morning and attendant headline concerns, especially across
eastern upper michigan.

Details: high pressure to build rapidly into and through the region
today, exiting off to our east by this evening. This will put an end
to any meaningful lake snows as we head through the morning and
afternoon hours. Still looking like a short window early this
morning for some better bands to rotate into chippewa county as lake
aggregate trough axis and attendant low level convergence is
maintained. May see another inch or two, particularly north of m-28.

Will leave inherited advisory as is for now, although would not be
surprised to see this headline cancelled a bit earlier than its
current 1 pm end time. Definitely not expecting much additional
accumulation across northwest lower michigan, and plan is to expire
current set of headlines with, or shortly after, the forecast
package release.

Winds back to southwest this afternoon, with just enough very
shallow instability to perhaps drive a few flurries off lake
michigan into the tip of the mitt counties and eastern upper
michigan. Otherwise, drying is rather aggressive, with definite
signs that shallow moisture tied to sinking subsidence inversion
will mix out heading through this afternoon. Always hesitant this
time of year to be too aggressive clearing skies, but gotta believe
skies will trend to partly cloudy, if not mostly sunny, through this
afternoon, especially the further south one goes. Development of
weak warm advection and increasing sunshine will help temperatures
recovery a bit, with highs today ranging from the upper 20s to lower
30s (these still are well below normal for this time of year).

Southwest flow only intensifies further tonight as high pressure
advances into new england by morning. Extremely dry low levels and
continued warming should limit any lake moisture contribution,
although wouldn't be surprised to see some very shallow strato-cu
rotate off lake michigan into eastern upper. Moisture tied to
northeast moving southern stream wave looks to remain well off to
our south. Upshot to the above, a rather remarkably quiet night
across the northwoods. Maintenance of light southerly flow and that
deepening warm air advection will prevent temperatures from tanking
too much, with overnight lows in the upper teens to middle 20s.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 336 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Quiet Thursday with light precipitation heading into Friday...

high impact weather potential... Perhaps some light freezing drizzle
across a portion of northern lower Thursday night, particularly
northeast lower.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Surface ridging associated with high
pressure centered over the northeast will provide fair weather over
northern michigan on Thursday. A cutoff low lifting through the
ohio valley Thursday night will open up as it assimilates with a
system riding up the east coast. Deformation banding on the backside
of this wave will spread into northeast lower Thursday night, only
to be quickly displaced by a potent clipper system on Friday. Colder
air will progressively wrap in behind this departing system Friday
afternoon.

Primary forecast concerns... Precip chances Thursday night into
Friday.

Models have been trending more towards deformation banding spreading
some light precipitation across northeast lower Thursday evening.

Forecast soundings initially show a relatively shallow moist layer
just off the surface, especially northwest of the deformation axis.

This may lead to some freezing drizzle for a time Thursday night,
but not expecting this to produce any significant impacts. Low level
moisture still looks somewhat limited heading into Friday, but it
should be deep enough for light snow showers (minimal accumulations)
transitioning to rain showers as the clipper system moves through
and temperatures warm through the 30s. However, large scale lift is
unimpressive with this system, and so is qpf. Will limit most areas
to only chance pops. Not a strong influx of cold air behind the
departing wave, so lake influences will be minimal.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 336 am est Wed nov 14 2018
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Models have been trending less impressive with regard to potential
lake effect snow this weekend, as the coldest h8 air is generally
progged to stay just to our north over ontario. There will still be
some lake influence through the weekend into early next week,
particularly affecting eastern upper with occasional showers
affecting northwest lower. However, activity looks to be far from
robust. Another clipper system may brush northern michigan on
Tuesday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 627 am est Wed nov 14 2018
gradual improvement across the TAF locations today and tonight as
high pressure builds through the region. Ongoing relatively high
based lake induced clouds and light snow showers will scatter out
through the morning, leaving behind decreasing clouds from
southwest to northeast this afternoon. Mainly clear skies expected
tonight. Light winds through the period.

Marine
Issued at 336 am est Wed nov 14 2018
after a brief reprieve today, southwest to south winds will
be on the increase tonight, with these gusty winds continuing right
through Thursday evening. Strongest winds will target northern lake
michigan and whitefish bay. Current trends support a high end small
craft advisory event, although wouldn't completely rule out an
isolated gale force wind gust or two.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est
Thursday for lmz323-341-342-344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... mb
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... mb
marine... mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi47 min NNW 8.9 G 16 28°F 1034.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 77 mi47 min NNW 8 G 12 27°F 1035.6 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI9 mi34 minW 79.00 miLight Snow27°F18°F69%1035.5 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi43 minN 010.00 miOvercast28°F14°F55%1034.5 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
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W12NW13W11W9W8W9W8W5W6W11NW10W11W9W9W13W7SW4SW5W5W8W5W8W7
1 day agoW11W7W8NW6W6W6W6W6CalmW7NW5W5SW3N5NW7NW8NW10NW11
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2 days agoS445S43S44S3S334CalmSW3S3S3SW3SW3SW4SW4W3W5W4W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.