Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elk Rapids, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 9:07PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:43 AM EDT (10:43 UTC) Moonrise 1:55PMMoonset 2:26AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 348 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..Light winds. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Light winds. Areas of fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201805231600;;392888 FZUS53 KAPX 230748 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 348 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-231600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elk Rapids, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231013
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
613 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 314 am edt Wed may 23 2018
impactful weather: areas of fog, some dense, mainly along the
coastlines.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
upper level ridging was stretched through the central plains early
this morning, with troughing across eastern canada down through the
mid atlantic. At the sfc, high pressure and a core of dry air was
over much of the great lakes region. With light winds and little to
no forcing anywhere around, skies were mostly clear and the weather
absolutely quiet. Temperatures have cooled into the 40s with some
lower 50s, and the clear calm conditions has resulted in areas of
fog, some of it dense in coastal and low lying areas.

Not much to talk about in the weather through tonight with the sfc
high pressure and dry air remaining over NRN michigan. This will
result in the continued mostly clear skies with just some passing
very thin cirrus. However, some late night fog in low lying areas is
once again expected in decent radiational cooling and light winds.

Also, dew points will slowly rise with time, reaching the lower 50s,
and likely resulting in more areas of fog out over the great lakes.

A slight W SW wind will more likely impact coastal areas around lake
michigan and through the straits. The upper ridging will slowly work
in over the region, resulting in a continued trend of warming
temperatures. Highs today will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s,
with cooler temperatures in coastal areas due to lake breezes coming
in off the lakes. Diurnal swings around 30f in another night of good
radiational cooling will result in lows in the middle 40s to lower
50s tonight. Coolest in low lying areas.

Short term (Thursday through Friday)
issued at 314 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Shower & storm chances return Thursday night-Friday...

high impact weather potential: elevated fire danger possible;
otherwise, none.

Pattern forecast: upper level ridging is expected to become centered
atop the forecast area late Thursday Thursday night while an
expansive area of high pressure continues to drive northern
michigan's weather for the first half of the forecast period.

Changes arrive as early as late Thursday night through Friday as a
well-defined shortwave and attendant developing area of low pressure
gradually approaches the region from the west aiding to increase
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances at various times through
the upcoming weekend.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: pops thunder chances Thursday
night through Friday.

Quiet weather is expected to continue Thursday as northern michigan
lies on the western periphery of an expansive area of high pressure
stretching from the midwest eastward through the mid-atlantic
northeast. Mostly sunny skies, light winds and temperatures climbing
well above normal will be the rule. Highs expected to MAX out some
10-20 degrees above late may normals... Ranging from the mid-upper
70s across eastern upper and the tip of the mitt to the low-mid 80s
along and south of m-32. Coolest readings likely to be found nearest
the lake shores as late afternoon temperatures gradually fall in
many great lakes collar counties as developing lake breezes push
inland.

Winds gradually transition to south-southwesterly throughout the day
Thursday aiding to increase moisture advection across western
sections of the forecast area as changes get underway as early as
late Thursday night early Friday. Approaching aforementioned
shortwave troughing and disorganized area of low pressure are set to
cross the area late Friday with leading scattered shower chances,
especially across far northern locales tied to the area of greater
forcing instability. See no reason to deviate from inherited chance
pops across eastern upper and the tip of the mitt after midnight
Thursday night through Friday mornign before slowly sagging further
south across far northwest lower by Friday afternoon (and beyond).

Despite the greatest instability centered well to our west, model
soundings suggest upwards of 100-350 j kg of MLCAPE gradually
pressing into far western and northern areas during the day Friday,
so wouldn't be surprised to see a few thunderstorms mixed in as
well. Friday's high temperatures expected to be very warm once
again... Ranging from the mid-70s across eastern upper to the low-
upper 80s (flirting with 90 in downsloping areas of northeast
lower?) across much of northern lower (cooler near the coasts once
again).

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 314 am edt Wed may 23 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Unsettled weather is expected to occasionally continue through the
upcoming holiday weekend as several mid level perturbations are
expected to race across the northern tier of the conus. Won't be a
total washout of a weekend, but periodic shower and thunderstorm
chances are expected Friday night through at least Sunday. High
temperatures expected to remain above normal... Generally ranging
from the mid 70s to low 80s through the weekend into the start of
next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 612 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Some fog issues, otherwiseVFR...

high pressure, relatively dry air and light winds will hold over the
taf period. This will result in mostly clear skies, but sfc dew
points will slowly rise and areas of fog will be a bit more common
at night. This will especially be true over the cold great lakes,
and will impact primarily mbl coastal areas. The light winds will
lead to lake breezes onshore flow this afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 314 am edt Wed may 23 2018
a weak pressure gradient in high pressure will hold over the region
through Thursday, resulting in little to no chances for any wind or
wave issues. The gradient does tighten later Thursday night into
Friday ahead of the next low pressure and chance for showers and
ultimately a chance for thunderstorms. Stable conditions over the
great lakes will likely prevent any advisory level winds, but the
greatest chance for advisory winds will be across the lake michigan
nearshore waters. While prolonged periods of rain are not expected,
at least some showers and thunderstorms are possible through much of
the upcoming holiday weekend.&&

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi64 min SSE 6 G 9.9 46°F 1020 hPa
45022 45 mi24 min S 3.9 G 3.9 42°F 41°F1021 hPa42°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 77 mi64 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 50°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI9 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair48°F45°F89%1019.5 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi49 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist40°F39°F97%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3N4NE6NE4NE45NE6NE8NE6NE7N7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSE7SE7SE8S9
G14
6SE6SE5S43NE3--CalmSW3E4Calm3CalmCalm
2 days agoN6N6N6NE7NE6NE7N5N6NE5NE4N6NE7NE5N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.