Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 9:11PM Saturday May 27, 2017 7:48 AM EDT (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 7:03AMMoonset 10:22PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 418 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Today..Light winds becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Patchy fog early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201705271630;;275004 FZUS53 KAPX 270818 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 418 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ323-271630-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 271045
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
645 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 346 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Warm Saturday on tap some showers possible by tonight...

high impact weather potential: minimal
pattern synopsis forecast: midnight surface analysis shows an
elongated occluded front extending from low pressure over northern
manitoba... Across eastern mn central ia northwest mo. Warm front
extends from northern mo across central il in oh. Flat ridging
aloft across the great lakes ohio valley early this morning... Old
mcs that has survived from ks last night into oh early this morning
helped along by an associated mcv. Water vapor imagery shows a weak
vorticity center along the mn ontario border which is pushing some
widely scattered showers across lake superior upper mi northwest wi
also within a broad zone of difluent upper level flow (activity is
fairly high based). 00z apx sounding shows residual moisture from
afternoon stratocumulus deck right at the inversion base just above
800mb... With a well-mixed layer below. Axis of deeper moisture
(precipitable water values 1.00-1.25 inches) extends up into eastern
wi lake michigan and spreading into western lower mi.

Upper mississippi valley occluded boundary is expected to make slow
progress east today... Reaching central upper eastern wi by late
afternoon.

Primary forecast concerns: can we generate some convection this
afternoon at least across interior northern lower with some skinny
instability and advancing lake breeze boundaries.

Clouds and spotty shower activity across eastern upper and the tip
of the mitt counties early this morning should end by mid morning...

with weak short wave ridging in place across the state for today.

Given the 00z soundings from apx grb expect fairly deep mixing this
afternoon... Which will probably give rise to some high based cumulus
clouds and some thin instability profiles. Some of the high
resolution guidance (and the gfs) try to paint some showers across
northern lower away from lakes michigan huron this afternoon. We
saw the same behavior in last night's high resolution guidance and
that didn't pan out... Though inversion evident on 00z apx sounding
likely will not exist this afternoon thus allow for a skinny cape
profile to extend above 700mb. More likely to see showers
thunderstorms develop along the remnant occluded boundary across
eastern wi western and central upper mi later this afternoon early
evening... Am inclined to leave the dry forecast intact for the
forecast area through the afternoon though probably can't rule it
out completely. Temperatures away from the beaches expected to warm
well into the 70s this afternoon... A solidly warmer than normal
afternoon.

There will likely be some threat for convection across wi western
upper mi to spill into eastern upper and perhaps far northwest lower
starting this evening and continuing overnight... As low level theta-
e ridge ahead of what remains of the occluded boundary will poke its
way northeast and into the forecast area. Precipitation threat
should drop off toward saginaw bay.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
issued at 346 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Showers and thunderstorms then cooler...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon
and Monday afternoon, although at this point they don't look to be
severe.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The pattern looks to revert back to
something cloudy and cooler after Sunday, as a 500 mb low begins to
drop in to the upper great lakes from the canadian prairies. This
looks to put us back to normal temperatures for Sunday and then
below normal temperatures Monday as low slowly moves into place.

As the 500 mb low moves in on Sunday morning, a sharp 500 mb
shortwave trough rotates through the upper mississippi valley and
into the upper great lake. This spins up a sfc low in S lower mi by
the evening, which helps to produce rain over the region for the
late afternoon and early evening hours. SREF and GEFS plumes average
around 500 j kg for CAPE mlcape with most of the members clumped
within a couple hundred joules either side of the average. However,
the both models have some members that get into the 800-1000 j kg
range. This is also the story with the effective shear with most of
the members clumped around the average shear <30 knots. Again, there
are some members that peak up around 40 or more knots, so it will
need to be watched, however, the peak shear on the GEFS is not
coordinated with the peak cape. So will have to watch if we can get
the instability and the shear during the afternoon. The ECMWF would
tend to side with the GEFS idea that the best shear is in the
morning and the best instability is in the afternoon, and neither
are strong enough to produce severe weather. So will have
thunderstorms in the forecast.

Will expect that the thunder will subside overnight, and that during
Monday afternoon as the 500 mb drops into the upper great lakes,
that there will be thunder. However, with the cloud cover expected
as stratocu (more like self-destruct sunshine if there are any
breaks) would be expected in the wake of the sfc low, and out ahead
of the upper low. This will likely bring lower CAPE over the region,
which is what the GEFS and SREF both show. Overnight, any thunder
will again subside from diurnal cooling and will expect rain showers
over the region.

Primary forecast concerns... As outlined on Sunday's forecast the
main concern would be if the SREF idea is right with the best shear
and instability being coordinated in Sunday afternoon and the
solutions to the a few of the members achieving shear over 40 knots
and CAPE over 800 j kg, then there would be a severe potential. Will
go with general thunder as the SPC outlook keeps the marginal area
south of the forecast area.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 346 am edt Sat may 27 2017
high impact weather potential... None
extended (Tuesday through Friday)... On Tuesday, we start with the
500 mb low just north of the upper great lakes with spokes of energy
rotating around it. As this occurs, cool air from canada will rotate
into the upper great lakes as well. Wednesday, the low doesn't move
too far, so that more reinforcing shots of cold air move into the
upper great lakes as well. With the upper level cold pool over us,
expect that showers will be scattered about. It may be possible for
thunder at time as the 500 mb temperatures dip below -20c. Thursday
and Friday look to remain dry as the low moves east allowing dry air
to push into the upper great lakes again. Temperatures will slowly
come back up Thursday to Friday allowing us to get back to normal
temperatures by the weekend. However, a sneak peak into Saturday
looks like temperatures may drop below normal again as another 500
mb low drops in south of hudson bay.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 643 am edt Sat may 27 2017
patchy areas of shallow fog may bring a brief period of ifr MVFR
conditions at pln mbl prior to 14z... Otherwise expect conditions
to be mostlyVFR today through tonight.

Marine
Issued at 346 am edt Sat may 27 2017
lake breeze dominance expected once again this afternoon as pressure
gradient remains weak... And probably the same on Sunday though
possibly with a stronger easterly component to the winds on lake
huron. Gustier southwest winds expected to develop on Monday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Jpb
short term... Jsl
long term... Jsl
aviation... Jpb
marine... Jpb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi69 min W 2.9 G 5.1 48°F 1012.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi69 min E 2.9 G 2.9 50°F 1013.2 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi69 min E 2.9 G 2.9 50°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Traverse City, Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi56 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F51°F90%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4NW5N4N5NE7NE5NE7NE7NE7NE9N5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNW5N5N6N6NE4N6N6N9N10N7N4N8E4N4N4NE3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmW4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNW7N6N5N7N7NE10NE8NE86NE6NE3CalmCalmN5NW3N4NW5NW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.