Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 9:05PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:13 AM EDT (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:35AMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 337 Am Edt Mon May 21 2018
Today..Light winds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light winds. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201805211545;;290703 FZUS53 KAPX 210737 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 337 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-211545-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 211047
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
647 am edt Mon may 21 2018

Near term (tonight)
issued at 153 am edt Mon may 21 2018
impactful weather: minimal. Low afternoon humidities.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
nrn michigan remains in a confluent upper level flow, with NW mid
level winds coming out of ontario and more W wsw winds coming out of
a weak shallow shortwave in the central conus. There was virtually
no forcing out there attm, with sfc high pressure overhead and
light calm winds. Temperatures were chilly, but not quite as chilly
as what was expected yesterday at this time. Dew points didn't mix
out as effectively yesterday, likely due to the greater amount of
green up that's been underway. This was especially the case along
and south of m-72 where areas of fog have also developed. With the
great radiational cooling conditions right now, am still expecting
many areas along and north of m-72 to get chilly enough for
frost some fog development. There was some shower activity ahead of
the weak shortwave, from far SRN mn through iowa mo il. This was in
a zone of weak forcing comprised of dpva, low to mid level WAA and
some upper divergence from a rather meager 60+kt upper jetlet.

Heading through daybreak, higher level clouds with the
aforementioned shortwave will start streaming in over the SRN cwa,
thickening up into a mostly cloudy cloudy sky by late morning early
afternoon across much of NRN lower michigan. Eastern upper to see a
good deal of Sun through much of the day. High temperatures will be
warmest across the u.P. ... In the lower half of the 70s, decreasing
heading further south (into the upper half of the 60s) where thicker
clouds prevent as much solar insolation. Could even see some light
rains develop as early as this afternoon in the gtv bay region and
along south of m-72, as the weak forcing to our west attm, moves in
across this area. This forcing and deepening moisture then crosses
mainly m-32 and south in NRN lower through the night, providing
chances for rain. No instability will result in little to no chance
of thunder. The sfc high pressure and drier air remains over eastern
upper through tonight, with little to no chance of any rain.

Lows tonight have been raised a couple degrees in the SRN half of
the CWA with respect to consensus MOS numbers, due to thick low
level cloud. Readings in the middle 40s north to as mild as the
lower 50s to the m-55 corridor expected.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 153 am edt Mon may 21 2018

Quiet & warm midweek weather...

high impact weather potential: minimal, although may have to watch
fire danger concerns toward the middle of the week.

Pattern forecast: rather zonal flow aloft will encompass the
midsection of the country through much of the forecast area. A
couple of weak shortwaves are expected to race across the region
early Tuesday and again late Wednesday, but with little fanfare as
strong surface high pressure drives northern michigan's sensible
weather through at least Thursday.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: temperatures and minimum
relative humidity related to fire weather concerns, primarily on
Wednesday.

An area of low pressure passing through southern michigan ohio
valley Monday night will continue to shift east early Tuesday
morning. Aside from a rogue lingering shower early in the day
(primarily east of i-75), clearing skies will be the rule. Mostly
sunny skies expected area-wide by mid-late afternoon as high
pressure sits atop the region. High temperatures expected to top out
in upper 60s to low 70s across the forecast area (cooler along the
immediate lake shores).

Quiet weather expected to continue into Wednesday with lots of
sunshine and temperatures climbing a few degrees over Tuesday's
highs. Low-mid 70s expected across eastern upper and low 70s to low
80s across northern lower. With high pressure continuing to remain
in control, lots of dry air is expected through the column
represented by afternoon minimum relative humidity values falling to
the 20-35% range across the majority of the forecast area... Lowest
in sections of northeast lower. Despite light winds, the combination
of warm temperatures and low rh will likely raise concern for
elevated fire danger once again.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 153 am edt Mon may 21 2018
high impact weather potential: minimal.

High pressure continues over the great lakes region producing a
quiet, warm, and dry Thursday. By late in the week, an area of low
pressure is expected to be dropping out of canada into the northern
plains before sliding east across the great lakes this weekend.

With accompanying moisture advection from the gulf of mexico, shower
and perhaps occasional thunderstorm chances return to the forecast
as early as Thursday night Friday and continue at various times
through at least Sunday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 623 am edt Mon may 21 2018

MVFR CIGS and possible light rains developing at tvc mbl...

high pressure will be entrenched across eastern upper, while a weak
area of low pressure crosses to our south tonight. Clouds will
thicken from aloft heading through the day and evening, especially
tvc mbl, where light rain showers are possible this afternoon and
into tonight. Also, MVFR CIGS are expected there tonight and through
much of Tuesday. Attm, not expecting and reductions in vsby in the
showers, outside of something brief in a potential brief heavier
shower. Light winds through the period.

Marine
Issued at 153 am edt Mon may 21 2018
a weak pressure gradient will hold over the region for the next
several days, resulting in minimal chances for any wind wave issues.

Weak low pressure does cross SRN lakes michigan and huron later this
afternoon into tonight for some potential light rain showers.

Otherwise, next chance of rain arriving mainly Friday-Saturday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi34 min E 2.9 G 5.1 49°F 1023.7 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi34 min ESE 8 G 12 59°F 1023 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi21 minN 310.00 miOvercast55°F46°F74%1023 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N5N6NE5NE4N6NE7NE5N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
1 day agoNE4N3N3CalmNW3NW5NW8N6NE3N46N9N9NW6NW6NW9N6N9N5N6N6N6NE7NE6
2 days agoSE10
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E10E8E5SE74------CalmSE5CalmE3E5N7NE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.