Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 7:32PM Sunday September 24, 2017 2:43 AM EDT (06:43 UTC) Moonrise 10:56AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1034 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Overnight..Light winds. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201709241045;;839651 FZUS53 KAPX 240234 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1034 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-241045-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 240622
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
222 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 222 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Another day of record-setting warmth...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air remain over the great lakes region and the ohio valley
early this morning... With the pronounced upper level ridge axis
aligned within this same area. Extended period of unseasonably warm
temps and dry conditions continue across this entire region. Closest
convection remains well upstream along and just behind a persistent
inverted trough extending from texas thru the central plains to near
the arrowhead of minnesota. Dwpts depressions are shrinking...

resulting in the development of some patchy fog across our CWA early
this morning.

For today... Strong subsidence... Dry air thru the column and a rather
strong mid level cap will keep any chances of precip at bay today
and tonight. Latest SPC day 1 convective outlook agrees with this...

keeping general thunder west of our CWA closer to the inverted
trough.

Expect yet another hot lake september day... .With several locations
again matching or breaking MAX temp records today. Afternoon highs
will range from the upper 80s in eastern upper michigan to the lower
90s for most of northern lower michigan. Expect another muggy night
as temps drop into the low to mid 60s.

Records for today:
record (year)
glr 86 (2007)
tvc 89 (2007)
apn 89 (2007)
anj 88 (1892)
htl 86 (2007)
pln 87 (2007)

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 222 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Daily record high temperatures likely through Tuesday...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern forecast: little change in the large pattern is anticipated
through Monday as upper troughing remains anchored across the
intermountain west with ridging continuing to prevail over the
eastern two thirds of the country. However, large upper level closed
high pressure overhead late this weekend gradually shifts off to the
east throughout the day Monday... And more so Tuesday, allowing for
energy from the western trough to eject toward the great lakes. This
energy is expected to ultimately phase with another shortwave
sliding across southern canada Tuesday afternoon, bringing
substantial height falls into the great lakes region by midweek.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: remaining warm and somewhat
humid both Monday and Tuesday with several high temperatures records
expected to be broken once again. Tuesday would be the sixth
consecutive day of record highs in an impressive stretch of late
season warm weather that has consistently featured highs 20-30
degrees above normal.

Monday and Tuesday current records:
Monday Tuesday
anj: 83(1908) 84(1908)
glr: 76(1958) 80(1999)
htl: 91(1920) 89(1920)
tvc: 89(1908) 88(1908)
apn: 85(1935) 88(1920)
pln: 80(2007) 83(1973)
an increasing shower storm threat arrives midweek as an approaching
cold front is set to slide across northern michigan. As was alluded
to by the prior shift, question marks revolve around exact timing of
the front, increased cloud cover, and the period of greatest
potential for any precip. Current trends continue to suggest the
aforementioned cold front doesn't arrive to northern michigan until
Tuesday evening at the earliest; however, developing convection
across wisconsin and the western u.P. May reach eastern upper and
far northwest lower in isolated fashion by late Tuesday afternoon.

At the very least, increased cloud cover seems likely west of us-
131.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 222 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Late Tuesday's cold front mentioned above continues to progress
eastward across northern michigan right through Wednesday morning.

Not impressed with recent trends regarding shower coverage Tuesday
night Wednesday morning as the best support remains focused across
southern ontario and deep layer moisture axis ahead of the front
diminishes with time. The main story will certainly revolve around
much cooler temperatures prevailing Wednesday right on through the
weekend with the coolest days expected to be Friday-Saturday as a
reinforcing shot of cool air aloft results in high temperatures
struggling to reach the mid-upper 50s. The combination of mid level
waves passing through the northern tier of the CONUS and lake
processes beginning to ramp up locally yields the possibility of
showery periods late this week into next weekend.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1152 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017
solidVFR conditions anticipated tonight through Sunday night. A
little bit of fog mist out there... Primarily at mbl and pln. Light
winds tonight... S SW under 10 knots on Sunday.

Marine
Issued at 222 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Monday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Mainly dry wx and
unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire region thru
Monday night.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Mr
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Ba
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi64 min S 6 G 9.9 71°F 1018.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi64 min SE 9.9 G 11 75°F 1018.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi64 min ESE 5.1 G 7 74°F 1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi51 minN 09.00 miFair69°F64°F87%1018 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmW6W96SW75SW7SW7W6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S34S4SW8SW7
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2 days ago5CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7N6N8NE6NE5N7NE7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.