Sunday, April23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:34PM Sunday April 23, 2017 3:40 PM EDT (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:27AMMoonset 4:18PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1045 Am Edt Sun Apr 23 2017
Today..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201704232245;;145700 FZUS53 KAPX 231445 NSHAPX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1045 AM EDT SUN APR 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKES HURON... MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LMZ323-232245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 231910
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
310 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017

Near term (tonight through Monday)
issued at 308 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
a cold front continues it's march southward into SRN lower michigan
this afternoon, with a corridor of deeper moisture in the cooler air
to the north continuing to shear/thin out with time. Any light
precipitation looks to have already come to an end with the only
echoes now seen being well west across western upper michigan where
there was still a little light rain/snow. Skies were sunny
elsewhere, with the band of clouds/moisture having quite the hard
time making it south due to mixing and walking into a very dry air
mass. Temperature here were into the middle 60s, outside of coastal
areas where lake breezes have brought cooler air off the lakes
inland. Under the clouds to the north, temperatures were quite
chilly, with upper 30s and lower 40s. Large temperature range this
afternon.

The cold front will continue to sink south through tonight with sfc
high pressure sinking into the NRN great lakes. Believe the clouds
will continue to diminish into the evening before some elevated axis
of warm advection is projected by many data sets to produce more
clouds into the night. Maybe across eastern upper more so, but do
not see much support for NRN lower seeing mostly clear/partly sunny
skies. Forcing is minimal tonight with main LLJ and potential right
entrance region upper divergence focused well west in the north
central conus. Maybe a touch of light rain/snow across NRN portions
of chippewa county, but wouldn't bet much on that.

Heading into Monday, the cold front returns as a warm front into
the western great lakes, as a shortwave ejects into the central
plains, from broad upper troughing over the western conus. Winds
start to turn more SE bringing cooler air in off lake huron to
portions of eastern upper and NE lower. This will keep highs in the
upper 40s to middle 50s. Meanwhile, warmer air and downsloping
effects will bring upper 50s to upper 60s for much of NW lower.

Sunshine is expected to be rather abundant across NRN lower while
sunshine will be trying to come out across eastern upper into the
afternoon. Do have a couple of concerns. One, could be some
overnight stratus developing and moving into portions of far nrn
lower and eastern upper. However, just think that the low level air
mass will be able to moisten up enough. Second, will have to watch
for low humidity and a little afternoon gustiness to elevate fire
danger in portions of NW lower tomorrow.

Short term (Monday night through Wednesday)
issued at 308 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017

More active pattern arrives midweek...

high impact weather potential: chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday evening.

Pattern forecast: the main focus through the short term forecast
period will revolve around energy currently well off the west coast,
expected to dive across the pac NW into the four corners region by
Tuesday. This will allow for troughing to dig across the central us
along with surface cyclogenesis lee of the rockies as that energy
ejects northeastward toward the great lakes/midwest during the
midweek timeframe. There's certainly overall guidance agreement in a
much more active pattern by midweek, but confidence remains low with
respect to the details of thunderstorm and heavy rain potential as
the overall evolution and placement of low pressure as it treks
toward the region remains in question.

Primary forecast concerns: main forecast concerns/challenges revolve
around the Tuesday night through Wednesday timeframe and includes
pops, thunder chances, and any potential for periods of heavier
rainfall.

Weak high pressure across the area Monday evening is quickly forced
northward as low pressure develops across the plains and Monday's
weak stalled boundary transitions into a northward progressing warm
front. Little in the way of sensible weather is expected through
Tuesday, aside from increasing southeasterly winds and temperatures
with well-above normal highs ranging from near 60 degrees north of
the bridge to the low 70s elsewhere (cooler near the lakes).

Scattered shower chances begin to increase to an extent Tuesday
night, mainly across far northwest lower and eastern upper, but even
more so late in the day Wednesday through Wednesday night as low
pressure is expected to move from the mid-mississippi valley into
the western great lakes. Thunder threat also increases during the
day Wednesday as a plume of a couple hundred j/kg MUCAPE is progged
to work its way across sections of northern lower. In addition,
pwats rising to above an inch suggest the threat for periods of
heavier rain, especially Wednesday night associated with areas of
better forcing and mid-level support arriving from the southwest.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 308 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017
extended period continues to look very active. High pressure to our
north tries to build into the region, but successive systems moving
out of the plains will be doing their best to thwart that. A brief
push of cold air late in the week could bring a few flakes for
northern areas of the cwa. The lows affecting the area will be
bringing gulf moisture, and could bring some more heavy rainfall to
the area. This will be dependent on where they track, and confidence
in that is low at this time. Another concern is with Wednesday
evening. As the low approaches, there is a high shear low cape
environment in place, with strong upper level divergence in the area
and a tight potential temperature gradient moving across the area.

Currently progged CAPE is sub 1000 j/kg, with 0-6km bulk shear 50+
kts, even higher in some areas. Certainly see a lot of these high
cape low shear setups do nothing, but it is worth keeping an eye
on.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 144 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017
a cold front continues to drop south of the area with winds out of
the north and gusting in spots. There is also a band of better
moisture/clouds behind this front, but it has been thinning out
over time with only pln seeing some periodic MVFR cigs. Lighter
winds tonight into Monday morning as winds turn easterly due to
higher pressure working into the NRN great lakes. Winds will be
more SE later Monday and gusty at times as the cold front to our
south gradually starts to lift back north. Maybe see some
additional low to mid level clouds, but right now, do not see much
indication that skies will be much more than mostly clear to
just partly cloudy.

Marine
Issued at 308 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017
a cold front will continue to drop south of the area into tonight,
with higher pressure working into the NRN great lakes. Somewhat
gusty northerly winds/lake breezes will weaken while also starting
to turn more out of the east. This winds will continue to veer and
come out of the SE Monday, increasing with time in a tightening
gradient from the cold front lifting back north as a warm front.

There is some indication by more hi-res data, that advisory level
gusts develop on many nearshore waters, especially lake huron. Am
not totally sold on that idea due to increasing stability.

Regardless, the chance is there. Maybe some better chances at that
Monday night as there is a more substantial increase in speeds, but
stability only grows.

Apx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Smd
short term... Mjg
long term... Alm
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi61 min NNE 8.9 G 11 39°F 1021.3 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi61 min N 18 G 23 42°F 1019.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi61 min N 19 G 21 42°F 1020 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Traverse City, Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi48 minN 1010.00 miA Few Clouds47°F34°F61%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE6NE5NE3SE3S3CalmS3S3Calm3SW7SW5SW6SW4SW4SW5W7N10N13N12N12N14
G20
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1 day agoN9
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N10N8N8N7E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N4N34NE7NE7
2 days agoCalmS3S33SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.