Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 9:14PM Friday July 21, 2017 12:32 AM EDT (04:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:26AMMoonset 6:45PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1024 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Overnight..Light winds. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201707211030;;573131 FZUS53 KAPX 210224 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1024 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-211030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 210358
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1158 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Update
Issued at 940 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017
clear skies across the region at the moment, with only some high
cloud looking to cross into the far SW CWA around manistee and
cadillac over the next few hours. Additional high cloud may arrive
overnight, from convection over the dakotas. The quiet weather is
courtesy of high pressure moving into NRN michigan. High dew
points in the 60s will lead to a mild night with some fog likely
in spots.

Near term (tonight through Friday)
issued at 315 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Some patchy fog tonight... Warm Friday with increasing clouds...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Quasi-stationary front extends from the
central plains thru iowa and into far southern lower michigan this
afternoon. High pressure continues to build into the northern
lakes... With no precip occurring across minnesota... Wisconsin and
michigan. Broken line of mainly high clouds continues to stream
eastward thru this area. Latest vsbl satellite combined with local
obs show patches of diurnal CU development within this region as
well. Temps have warmed into the 80s across most of our cwa... As
dwpts very slowly fall with the arrival of drier low level air.

As we head into the evening hours... Diurnal CU will dissipate with
sunset loss of daytime instability. Some scattered cirrus will
continue to drift overhead during the night and into Friday. Expect
some patchy fog development late tonight early Friday morning under
mainly clear skies and light calm winds. Any fog that does develop
will quickly mix out shortly after sunrise... Giving way to another
mainly sunny and very warm day across the northwoods.

Low temps overnight will cool into the upper 50s and lower 60s. High
temps Friday afternoon will warm well into the 80s across much of
our cwa.

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)
issued at 315 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Short term (Friday night through Sunday)

Showers and thunderstorms possible at times...

high impact weather potential... Thunderstorms possible at times
Friday night through Saturday night. Small chance of thunderstorms
again Sunday afternoon.

Pattern synopsis forecast... General zonal flow pattern in the upper
levels will continue into Saturday and early Sunday before a
developing trough digs into the upper great lakes region Sunday
afternoon. Until then, occasional ripples of mid level energy,
especially in the Friday night-Saturday morning timeframe, will be
the primary driver for showers and storms at times across the
region. This activity will be further enhanced by a developing
surface low initially over southern mn northern ia and an associated
warm front as these features approach northern michigan.

Primary forecast concerns... Aside from usual difficulties of
forecasting timing and location of possible convection, pinpointing
the track of a potential MCS Friday night into early Saturday
remains the primary forecast concern.

Models are in good agreement with a fairly sharp moisture theta-e
gradient setting up along the warm front Friday evening, stretching
from central mn into western wi and down through northern il and in.

Deeper moisture will be found on the warm side of the front where
pwats may climb > 2 inches. Looking fairly likely that an MCS will
develop late Friday afternoon over central mn northwest wi, then
track southeast along this moisture instability gradient overnight.

How this activity will evolve overnight as it interacts with a
veering low level jet is less certain. While several synoptic models
have the forward-propagating MCS spreading out in a W to E fashion
as it enters southern wi, nearly all keep the bulk of the activity
downstate as it crosses into lower michigan... Perhaps brushing the
southwestern portion of the apx cwa. SPC day 2 keeps marginal slight
risk severe outlook downstate. There may be some concurrent weak
activity that develops over northern mi Saturday morning, as per the
latest nam GFS arw.

Less confidence as to when where if convective redevelopment may
occur during the day Saturday in response to more mid level
perturbations and approaching warm front. This will depend on how
much we can destabilize behind the morning mcs. If we can recover
instability-wise (complicated by ongoing WAA and resultant weak low
level lapse rates) and storms manage to develop, there may be
sufficient deep layer shear to support a few better organized storms
Saturday afternoon evening. However, overall convective activity on
Saturday looks mostly unorganized. SPC day 3 outlook has northern
lower in a marginal to slight risk.

Additional chances for showers storms will linger into Saturday
night and Sunday as weak surface low crosses lower michigan and
digging upper trough drops into the upper great lakes. However,
forecast soundings show decent capping over the area and weak
low mid level lapse rates, so think Sunday's thunder potential will
be more inhibited than Saturday.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 315 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Large scale pattern features a typical summertime look to it with a
broad area of weak flow high heights across much of the CONUS with
main westerlies confined to the northern tier of states. Short wave
troughing will be making its way across the midwest great lakes this
weekend... Leading to eventual troughing height falls spreading into
the northeast and mid atlantic for early next week. So no big heat
for the region for the first half of next week... Though temperatures
look to moderate beyond Monday. Start of the week looks dry in the
wake of the short wave trough passage and building short wave ridge
for Monday Tuesday. Next chance for rain probably by midweek in
developing warm advection pattern ahead of a cold front short wave
trough.

Temperatures will be seasonably cool Monday (mostly 70s for
highs)... Warming back to something more typical for late july by
Tuesday (70s to around 80) which should continue into midweek though
could be tempered by potential precipitation (especially
Wednesday??).

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1155 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017
outside of some expected fog development tonight, conditions will
remainVFR this TAF period with weakish high pressure over the
region. W NW AOB 10 kts will go near calm tonight with lake
breezes expected Friday afternoon. Next shot at showers and a few
possible storms rolls in late in the TAF period, attm, best
chances at mbl. Will not mention in the forecast at this time.

Marine
Issued at 315 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017
winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through the weekend.

High pressure will continue to build overhead tonight into Friday...

before a stationary front parked south of michigan begins to wave
back northward Friday night and Saturday. Dry wx is expected thru
Friday... With chances of showers and thunderstorms increasing again
Friday night through Sunday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Sd
near term... Mr
short term... Mk
long term... Jb
aviation... Sd
marine... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi52 min WSW 5.1 G 8 69°F 1014.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi52 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 70°F 1014.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi52 min S 6 G 8 68°F 1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair68°F64°F87%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW4W3CalmSW6SW7W9W13
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1 day agoSW4W34W4W4NW4N5N354E5NE5NE6N5N5NE7NE7NE7NE5NE4CalmS3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmW3S3Calm--3Calm3SW7CalmSW5SW9SW74SW9SW8SW7S6
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.