Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 5:31PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 11:53 PM EST (04:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:50AMMoonset 5:21PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1008 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Tuesday...
Overnight..Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers after midnight, then slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest wind up to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5. This is the last issuance of the nearshore marine forecast for the season. This product will resume seven days prior to the opening of the soo locks, scheduled for march 25 2018, or sooner if warmer temperatures would cause ice to dissipate.
LMZ323 Expires:201801161000;;512214 FZUS53 KAPX 160309 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1009 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior LMZ323-161000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 170335
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1035 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Update
Issued at 1035 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
large area of strong high pressure and a widespread arctic airmass
remain centered over the heart of the us late this evening...

providing an unseasonably frigid night across much of the us.

Closer to home... Low level flow has shifted to the nw... Refocusing
light lake effect snow shower activity westward to the lake
michigan shoreline areas. This will continue thru the remainder of
the night... With new snow amounts well under an inch for the more
typical snowbelt areas. Have dropped overnight lows several
degrees based on latest obs trends... With most locations
plummeting into the single digits above and below zero. Stay warm
everyone!

Near term (tonight through Wednesday)
issued at 342 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Nuisance lake snow showers... Turning warming starting
Wednesday...

high impact weather potential... None.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Stretched out short wave trough
extends from quebec through lower michigan and into the central
plains... The downstream leg of omega blocking across the western
conus. Small scale vorticity MAX spin is evident on satellite
over southeast lower michigan with an associated surface low
over southern lake huron and some semblance of a deformation axis
wrapping around through the saginaw bay osc area into central southern
lower michigan. Still some light snow occurring through that
area.

Across northern michigan... Northerly flow lake and inland heating
induced snow showers flurries continue... But have been relatively
minor through the day. There are a couple of heftier long axis
single lake bands running down through lake michigan and some
beefier lake snow showers migrating eastward across lake superior
that we will have to contend with later on. Otherwise... Many areas
have seen a fair amount of sunshine today with dry air wedging in
from the north... Especially in eastern upper michigan.

Tonight... Diurnal heating component to the snow showers flurries
will fade quickly this evening leaving some northerly flow lake
snow showers near the coast. Low level mean flow will back
northwesterly this evening and westerly overnight... As high
pressure builds southward into the central southern plains. This
will push some of the heftier lake snow showers on lakes michigan
and superior back into the coastline areas from leelanau to
manistee counties as well as parts of eastern upper michigan
tonight. This should result in a period of heavier snow
showers lower vsbys for those areas... Although relatively brief as
winds continue to back through the night.

Wednesday will start with lake clouds and probably some light
snow showers across NW lower michigan that will migrate fan out
inland through the morning. But much warmer air presses into the
western great lakes through the day... Ending the lake effect snow
showers and thinning out cloud cover through the afternoon.

Gustier west winds return and will lead to some blowing snow
across the region.

Short term (Wednesday night through Friday)
issued at 342 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Milder temperatures...

high impact weather potential... Very low.

Primary forecast concerns: none except for somewhat low wind chills
Wednesday night.

Wednesday night... A continued rather stout pressure gradient between
low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south will lead
to more gusty winds. Temperatures will be nearly steady to slowly
rising out of the middle teens to lower 20s but wind chill values in
the single digits can be expected.

Thursday... A short wave dropping down through the flow will bring a
quick shot of cooler air as well as a chance for a few snow showers.

Highs in the milder upper 20s and lower 30s.

Thursday night into Friday... The warm advection pattern resumes.

Cloud cover is a tough call with model soundings first showing
shallow moisture trapped below an inversion Thursday night then
mid high level moisture Friday from a short wave moving by to the
north. So overall partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower and
middle 20s. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 342 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
the main focus in the extended will be this system that will lift
over the great lakes Sunday and Monday. It's still very early to be
talking storm track... And will likely morph between now and then.

However... Most guidance is showing us remaining in the warm sector
as the low lifts from the four corners to wisconsin by Monday
morning. Right now, it looks like a surge of mild air will have
precip begin as rain on Sunday... And then a wintry mix as colder air
wraps into the region Sunday night into Monday... And eventually all
snow late Monday into Tuesday. More seasonal, colder air will then
settle back in. The challenges to the forecast will be track,
timing and to what extent and impact any mixed precip will
present... And hopefully future runs will bring more confidence in
all these factors.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 603 pm est Tue jan 16 2018
residual light lake effect snow showers will end across NE lower
michigan this evening... And will refocus to the NW lower michigan
shoreline areas of lake michigan as low level winds shift to the
nw. Overall conditions will beVFR thru the 24 hr TAF forecast
period... But will periodically drop to MVFR within any lake snow
showers. Winds will shift to the SW on Wednesday as low level waa
begins... Bringing an end to over-lake instability. SW winds will
strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with a few higher gusts expected.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... Ba
short term... As
long term... Kb
aviation... Mr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi73 min SSW 4.1 G 6 18°F 1030.1 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi73 min SSE 7 G 11 16°F 1031.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi73 min SE 5.1 G 8 16°F 1031.5 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi60 minN 05.00 miLight Snow15°F9°F77%1031 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE5E7NE5NE7NE9NE7NE7NE6NE8NE7NE9NE6NE10NE6N9N7N6N10N7N63S3S4
1 day agoSE7SE6SE56SE4SE6SE9SE5SE6SE4
G16
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E10E9E6E4CalmCalmCalmSE3
2 days ago--SW4SW3CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalm4S6S4S4S7S6S4SE6SE5SE5SE5SE5SE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.