Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 5:05PM Sunday December 16, 2018 9:41 PM EST (02:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:47PMMoonset 1:07AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 344 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm est this evening through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Scattered rain and snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201812170445;;895809 FZUS53 KAPX 162044 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 344 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-170445-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 170236
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
936 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Update
Issued at 918 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
respectably deep short-wave trough is progressing through ontario
this evening with attending surface low pressure over hudson bay.

Surface cold front arcs down through the northern great lakes and
appears to be already pressing into the tip of the mitt as of 9pm
surface obs. Cold air and trailing cloud mass behind the front is
just pressing into eastern upper michigan.

Further south, mainly clear skies save for a patch of high cloud
cover slipping into the region. Fzfg has already reared it's head
this evening at mbl and spotty reduced vsbys elsewhere. But fog
issues will be short-lived tonight.

Cold front and trailing cold air mass of stcu will spread down
through the region over the next several hours, with winds turning
into the NW and becoming gusty. Could be a little bit of nuisance
precip along the front itself. However, main precip threat (such
as it is) will be lake effect snow showers expected to develop
late this evening (eup) and overnight (nrn lower) as h8 temps
tumble off to around neg 10c by early morning. Just a quick hitter
as drier air and warmer low level temps quickly build back into
the region on Monday.

Lake induced CAPE values under 200 j kg, lake induced inversion
heights under 5k and quick drying on Monday all suggest on minor
accumulations through Monday morning.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 342 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Les tonight...

high impact weather potential... Light lake effect snow, possibly
drizzle, could make area roadways slick.

Pattern synopsis forecast... A weak sfc trough is moving through the
upper great lakes and is ushering increased winds and drier air to
finally eat away the fog that has plagued some locations the last
two days. However, as cold front moves in, to take its place, colder
air will spill into the region, and produce minor lake effect snow
showers, mainly in E upper, and a bit in NW lower overnight. Amounts
are expected to be an inch or less, although some locally higher
amounts are possible.

Primary forecast concerns... Previous runs of the models have showing
some potential of freezing drizzle. Since this year has been a
drizzle favored year, it can't be discounted. Especially, if you
look at the NAM soundings which show decent uplift with the moisture
short of the -10c level. However, based on the GFS and ecmwf, it
looks like it should be snow, as the moisture reaches -10c with the
instability. The hiresw models (nmm arw) show that lake effect snow
is expected, and has it building down from E upper into NW lower
overnight. However, the chances of measurable precipitation is less
than 50%, so the amounts will remain low.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 342 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Brisk with diminishing lake effect Monday, then quiet...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Tight thermal and pressure gradients
will result in ongoing cold air advection on Monday, though this
will gradually relax with time as high pressure builds in from the
west. This sprawling surface high will slide overhead around
daybreak Tuesday with southerly return flow and warm air advection
developing in its wake and continuing through Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns... Diminishing lake effect snow
showers Monday.

Ongoing lake effect snow showers are expected to gradually diminish
in intensity through the day Monday as 850mb temperatures slowly
moderate. Plenty of cold air initially, but h8 temps will eventually
warm above -10c in the afternoon. At the same time, drier air will
steadily encroach from canada ahead of approaching high pressure,
which will slowly eat away at remaining low level moisture in the
column. As a result, inversion heights (already below 5000 feet at
daybreak) will slowly decline through the day. Eastern upper will
likely see the healthiest snow bands, which could produce up to a
half inch of daytime accumulation in favored northwest flow
snowbelts. Portions of northwest lower (mainly east of grand
traverse bay) may see a dusting to a half inch. And with the
northwest flow connection to lake superior, hi-res models continue
to highlight a lake huron streamer coming ashore eastern presque
isle and northeast alpena counties, but with minimal impact. It
should be noted that northwest winds will be brisk Monday morning
with gusts up to ~30 mph possible (perhaps a few marginal gale-force
gusts impacting whitefish bay and portions of lake huron). Winds
will gradually diminish through the afternoon.

Quiet weather then for Monday night through most of Wednesday as
high pressure passes overhead. Temperatures will slowly moderate
through the period, but many areas could drop into the teens Monday
night as clouds diminish and winds become light. A plume of higher
moisture in the wake of this departing high may interact with some
weak energy out ahead of the next developing system to spread light
precip near and north of the straits Wednesday afternoon.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 342 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
high impact weather potential... Minimal.

A deepening trough will carve through the plains into the
mississippi valley Wednesday night into Thursday. At the surface,
this will lead to a developing system progged to lift into the ohio
valley towards the end of the week, interacting with a clipper
system over ontario that drags a cold front through the upper great
lakes. Northern michigan looks to see chance pops through Thursday,
with precip chances increasing Thursday night into Friday as the
ohio valley system lifts towards eastern canada. At this time,
precip looks to be mainly in the form of rain snow for northern
michigan, likely transitioning to all snow by Friday night as colder
air wraps around behind the departing system. This may lead to some
lake effect snow next weekend, but temperatures only look marginally
supportive at this time.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 741 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
once again, some fog has already materialized across northern
lower michigan early this evening... mbl and cad. Fog issues will
be short-lived however. Cold front will be dropping down through
the region later this evening into the overnight hours turning
winds into the NW and becoming gusty. That will take care of our
fog issues. But, arrival of colder air will drag MVFR cloud cover
down into the region as we go through the night and lead to some
lake effect snow showers as well.

MVFR to lowVFR CIGS will continue to dominate through the day
Monday. Gusty winds later tonight persist through Monday before
diminishing Monday night.

Marine
Issued at 342 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
tonight through Tuesday... As the cold front, entering the upper
great lakes, this afternoon, moves across the state overnight, the
winds will begin to increase and veer to the northwest. Winds across
lake superior will begin to gust to 35-40 knots, so am expecting
that the entrance to whitefish bay will have gusts to 35 knots as
well. It is also possible that the some winds could gust to 35
knots, near the head of the st. Mary's river, near pt. Iroquois, but
that is less likely so will continue the small craft there. However,
it looks like our area from the bridge to middle island, with the
coastal convergence, will get gale gusts after midnight and into
Monday morning. Lake michigan should remain at small craft through
the night, and Monday morning. Monday the system that produced the
winds moves out of the upper great lakes, and winds diminish through
the evening. It looks like lakes superior and michigan will be below
small craft by Monday afternoon, and lake huron, Monday evening. By
Tuesday morning winds everywhere will continue to diminish, and be
variable at 10 knots or less through the morning. Winds increase
Tuesday afternoon, and possibly get to small craft on lake michigan.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Monday for lhz345-346-349.

Gale warning until 1 am est Tuesday for lhz347-348.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Monday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Monday for lsz322.

Gale warning until 6 pm est Monday for lsz321.

Update... Ba
near term... Jl
short term... Mk
long term... Mk
aviation... Ba
marine... Jl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi62 min WSW 20 G 24 40°F 1012.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi62 min W 21 G 25 42°F 1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi49 minWSW 1010.00 miFair37°F30°F79%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmW4W8S3CalmCalmSW56
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1 day agoCalmS4S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5SE6CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalm
2 days ago3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmS3CalmSW5SW7SW1055SW6SW5SW5Calm63

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.