Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:25PM Thursday June 20, 2019 1:15 AM EDT (05:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:13PMMoonset 7:54AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1012 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Overnight..Light winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201906201015;;761296 FZUS53 KAPX 200212 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1012 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-201015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 200342
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1142 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Issued at 921 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
westward-moving lake breeze front has been kicking off isolated to
sct showers in a broad area from glr to cad. These haven't been
lasting too long, as showers then move east into the cool stable
airmass and die. And overall trends are downward as we move past
peak heating, though they aren't totally gone yet. Interesting
that rap hrrr regenerate showers over the next few hours from htl
to cad, and will stretch out small chance pops a little longer
down there. Some synoptic-forced light showers sprinkles continue
north of a stalled boundary downstate, impacting our SE zones. A
lot of this is virga, but some is likely reaching the ground.

Another push of precip is upstream, over northern il SE wi
southern lake mi, north of a 1002mb surface low in central il.

This is likely to return precip overnight to gladwin arenac
southern iosco cos, but not much further north that that.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 342 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Increasing chances for showers late tonight far south...

high impact weather potential... None expected.

Primary forecast concerns... Pops, especially late tonight.

A stationary boundary remains just off to our south. Apx and
surrounding radars show a band of weakening light rain showers
moving up along the front. These light showers have fallen across
far southern zones over the last few hours. There could be a few
more showers down that way through early tonight, but overall a
decreasing trend is expected through then. Otherwise, there could
still be a popup shower or two inland from weak instability lake
breeze converge... Although i'd bet against it actually happening.

Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure moving up along the front is
then expected to increase shower activity once again late tonight
(generally south of m-72). Lows tonight ranging from the middle
40s north to the middle 50s south.

Short term (Thursday through Saturday)
issued at 342 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
high impact weather potential: none through the short term.

Pattern synopsis forecast: synoptic analysis today reveals some
semblance of an omega block centered over canada with pseudo zonal
flow across the lower 48. Short-wave and attending surface low is
moving across the midwest with an axis of precip that cuts up
through lower michigan as well as the southern southeastern portion
of the forecast area. Meanwhile, high pressure is across ontario and
the northern lakes region keeping things mainly dry although with
quite a bit of cloud cover through the region.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: continuing rain chances
through Thursday. Rain chances increase again as we go through the
weekend.

Aforementioned short-wave and surface low will be moving through
ohio and the lower lakes region to start the day Thursday, advancing
through pennsylvania toward the atlantic coast by end of the day.

There likely will be associated rainfall with this system rolling
through central and southern lower michigan and continuing to push
precip through the S SE part of the forecast area... At least through
the morning hours. A drying trend is then anticipated through the
afternoon into Thursday night along with a gradual decrease in cloud
cover.

Friday into Saturday is shaping up to be decent overall as elongated
surface ridge axis wedges it's way down through the great lakes and
ohio valley. Meanwhile, warm more unstable air will be building just
upstream through the midwest through the period and there may be
some showers that attempt to sneak into the western southwestern
part of the forecast area... Particularly Saturday. But all told, i
think most areas will be rain-free with daytime temperatures warming
through the 70s.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 342 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal at this juncture. Watching
thunderstorm chances later in the weekend and early next week.

Back to another stretch of overall unsettled weather through the
balance of the forecast. Short-wave ridging is looking to slide
through the great lakes for the balance of the weekend into Monday
while short-wave energy and attending surface low pressure
eventually work from the central CONUS and into the great lakes
through the first half of the week. It may get a little interesting
with thunderstorm potential Sunday Sunday night and into Monday as
warmer more unstable air advects up into the region along and ahead
of a surface warm front, coupled with strengthening winds aloft
ahead of the approaching short-wave trough. Will just have to see
how things unfold as it's still a number of days out. Showery
weather is likely to continue for Tuesday into Wednesday as the
system swings through the great lakes.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1141 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
vfr.

Light rain showers will make some northward progress overnight and
thu morning into central lower mi, north of low pressure moving
across il in. But this activity should stay south of our taf
sites. Brief intrusions of lower CIGS are not out of question
toward daybreak, especially at tvc mbl, thanks to marine
intrusions from chilly lake mi. But otherwise solidVFR
conditions, and clouds should tend to diminish beginning midday
Thursday.

Light NE winds Thursday, with developing onshore lake breezes in
the afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 342 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
another area of low pressure will bring a few showers to southern
marine zones through Thursday morning. Light winds will pick up just
a little tonight into Thursday, when low pressure crosses by to our
south. Still, no advisory level speeds are expected. Relative high
pressure then settles back in Thursday night into Friday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Jz
near term... As
short term... Ba
long term... Ba
aviation... Jz
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 54 mi36 min NNE 7 G 8 53°F 1007.8 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 70 mi36 min NNE 11 G 13 54°F 1006.8 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi23 minN 610.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F54°F87%1006.6 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6NE4N4N35N7N7N7N6NE7NE7N7NE7NE6N4N4NE3N4N6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5--34NW7NE7NE7NE3NE5NE3CalmN7W3Calm
2 days agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5N6NE5N7NE8N9NE8NE8NE5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.