Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greilickville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 7:49PM Monday March 18, 2019 11:44 AM EDT (15:44 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 255 Pm Est Mon Jan 28 2019
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West wind up to 30 knots. Snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5. This is the last nearshore forecast issuance of the season. The nearshore forecast will resume around march 18 2019.
LMZ323 Expires:201901290400;;064933 FZUS53 KAPX 281955 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 255 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-290400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greilickville, MI
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location: 44.82, -85.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181435
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1035 am edt Mon mar 18 2019

Update
Issued at 1017 am edt Mon mar 18 2019
shortwave trough rotating across eastern lake superior bringing a
band of mostly light snow into northeast section of eastern upper
michigan, including across sault ste. Marie. Expect light
snow rain showers to develop southward with time as low level
instability increase. Coverage should be scattered at best, and
likely much of northern lower michigan will remain dry. Plenty of
morning sunshine and an increasingly modified airmass will keep
temperatures rising, with afternoon highs well up into the 30s,
with some areas across the south likely making a run to near 40.

Near term (today and tonight)
issued at 355 am edt Mon mar 18 2019

Nuisance light showers again today...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: broad troughing colder air remains
across eastern canada and down into the great lakes new england,
although troughing has made some eastward progress over the last
few days. Weak short-wave PV anomaly and batch of enhanced cloud
cover is sliding S SE through ontario into the northern lakes
region but with no precip occurring that I can find. At the
surface, large expanse of high pressure stretches of the plains
through the lower lakes region and remains largely in control of
northern michigan's weather with quiet conditions and just a few
pockets of cloud cover moving through at the moment.

Primary forecast concerns: shower chances again today.

Surface high pressure largely remains in control through tonight.

However, aforementioned weak short-wave will slip through the
region today followed by a second weak wave clipping eastern upper
michigan later tonight. Modest background qg-forcing for ascent
coupled with daytime heating will probably be enough to kick off
spotty showers once again, particularly across eastern upper
michigan where some enhanced low level convergence and better low
level moisture will reside.

Further south, forecast soundings are drier in the low levels
across northern lower michigan (as compared to Sunday) with
surface dewpoints only in the teens and a shallower convective
cloud depth. This may be enough to minimize or even prevent
showers from developing. We will see, but at this juncture I will
maintain some very low end pops across northern lower michigan
for this afternoon.

Finally, cooler temperatures in the u.P. Should result in mainly
snow showers today with minor accumulations. For northern lower
michigan, with surface temperatures warming through the 30s and
possibly touching the lower 40s, any precip that develops may
end up on the mixy side.

Tonight: diurnally driven cloud cover showers fade quickly this
evening but with a little bit of a lake component maintaining
spotty snow shower chances through NW lower michigan. Secondary
weak wave will be passing down through ontario and clipping
eastern upper michigan later tonight, potentially bringing a few
more snow showers to that area.

Bottom line - spotty nuisance shower chances persist through
tonight with minimal impact anticipated.

Short term (Tuesday through Wednesday)
issued at 355 am edt Mon mar 18 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast: longwave troughing expected to persist
through at least the middle of the week with the primary focus
through the short term forecast period revolving around an embedded
shortwave expected to move across the region during the day
Wednesday. During the early week time frame, surface high pressure
is expected to slide from the central plains into the ohio valley
with warm advection over northern michigan aiding to boost
temperatures to near or even a few degrees above mid-late march
normals.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: precipitation chances
Wednesday.

Initial tranquil conditions expected across northern michigan during
the day Tuesday as the area sits between two shortwaves embedded in
larger scale parent troughing (one expected to move through Monday
and then again Wednesday, as was alluded to above). Partly sunny
skies and light southwesterly winds will be the rule as high
temperatures vary from the mid 30s north of the bridge to the upper
30s - low 40s across northern lower.

The next chance of precipitation arrives across eastern upper very
late Tuesday night before chances gradually spread southeastward
across across a good potions of northern lower during the day
Wednesday. Rather paltry moisture remains the biggest limiting
factor to more robust widespread precipitation, but none the less,
any late Tuesday night early Wednesday light snow across the north
will gradually mix with and transition to light rain showers as
temperatures climb well into the 30s by mid-late Wednesday morning.

Afternoon highs expected to tag the low-mid 40s for many across
northern lower... And just a couple of degrees cooler over the
eastern u.P.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 355 am edt Mon mar 18 2019
high impact weather potential... None.

Quiet the amplified upper-level pattern across the CONUS to wrap up
the work week with one final quick-hitting shortwave expected to
drop through the western great lakes region on Thursday, likely
bringing another round of light snow rain showers. However, strong
surface high pressure is then expected to drift across the great
lakes while upstream ridging gradually dampens as it slides overhead
through the weekend. This will provide a stretch of dry weather with
temperatures remaining above normal.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 558 am edt Mon mar 18 2019
high pressure stretching from the plains through the lower great
lakes will maintain overall quiet weather andVFR flight
conditions at the terminal sites through Tuesday (and beyond).

But, with daytime heating, some spotty afternoon rain and snow
showers are possible today across northern lower michigan followed
by spotty light lake effect snow showers over NW lower michigan
tonight. Impact will be very minimal withVFR conditions
persisting.

Winds under 10 knots today and tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... mb
near term... Ba
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 27 mi65 min SSW 1.9 G 7 34°F 1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Capital Airport, MI7 mi52 minS 410.00 miFair33°F21°F61%1026.8 hPa

Wind History from TVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10W8SW8W4W11W9
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NW12NW10NW7NW8SW4SW5SW6SW5CalmCalmCalmS43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.