Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 9:03 PM Moonrise 4:23 PM   Moonset 3:17 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 408 Pm Edt Sun May 19 2024
Tonight - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - Light winds. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 191930 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather concerns into this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms increasing Monday and Monday night.

- Frontal passage Tuesday night brings chance for a round of showers and possible strong thunderstorms.

- Cooler and occasionally unsettled Thursday and beyond.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Synopsis/pattern: A cold front continues to slowly sag into se lower MI. That front stalls along the southern lower MI border, and then comes northward Monday, likely reaching our southern zones in the afternoon. Wsw flow continues aloft, with the potential for an MCV to take a run at us by Monday afternoon.

Forecast: Quiet tonight. Southerly return flow begins off the surface overnight, and elevated instability will make some inroads into southern MI, mainly south MKG-PHN. Not this far north. High and mid clouds will be on a slow increase. Between the clouds and the drier low-level air, significant fog is not expected. Min temps near 50f to the mid 50s.

Monday, the lifting warm front will gradually climb into northern lower MI in the afternoon. We will have a reasonably healthy amount of mid and high clouds, so diurnal heating will be somewhat inhibited. A bit more in the way of sun is possible in southern areas midday/early afternoon. Max temps near 80f/ lower 80s will be common in northern lower MI, 70-75f in eastern upper MI. Surface dew points reach near 60f in the south in the afternoon. That pushes MlCape values to 1000-1500j/kg in the south, where shear is less (0-6km bulk 25-30kt). More shear but less instability to the north. Pops will be on the increase thru the day, whether by convection moving in from upstream, or via activity firing here if upstream convection erodes. Likely pops in the afternoon w and n, chances in the east. SPC continues with a Marginal severe threat in northern lower MI. That includes all svr types (including a 2% tor area), in deference to the surface warm front in the area. Sub-850mb flow is progged to back somewhat during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

A digging trough and its associated surface low is expected to track into the Midwest resulting in a slug of moisture being brought into the area for Monday/ Tuesday. This will be enough forcing to push a stationary front, located in southern Michigan, northward into the area for Tuesday, leading to rain showers and possible strong thunderstorms. As the aforementioned surface low tracks out of the region, cooler air will wrap around the low and be pushed into Northern Michigan. As such, temperatures will be warmer to start off next week with daytime highs in the 70s/ 80s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for mid-week next week (50s/ 60s).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

- Monday night/ Tuesday Evening and Night: A stationary front located downstate will provide lift to support thunderstorms for Tuesday. The aformentioned front will get pushed northward into Northern Michigan as a digging trough and associated strengthening surface low track into the Midwest. Guidance continues to hone in on a wave of energy that will track through the region Monday night into early Tuesday, which will present the next round of showers and possible thunderstorms for the region. However, attention quickly turns to Tuesday evening/ night. First, I want to preface that this setup and forecast can change as finer details continue to be analyzed and conclusions are drawn. Now, Tuesday's setup has the potential to produce strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. Southerly winds will help to usher deep moisture into Northern Michigan, but potential activity downstate could cut-off the deep moisture fetch and essentially kill the chances of severe weather. Atmospheric dynamics continue to be in favor of severe weather, but the nocturnal nature of the frontal passage poses the question if anything will be able to initiate along the front. However, given the later timing and expected forcing, thoughts continue to be in support of a linear convective mode with all severe hazards possible. SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to have areas west of US 131 in a Slight Risk (2/5) and the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 139 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR.

Drier air in place, behind a cold front moving across se lower MI. Cirrus and eventually mid clouds will increase tonight into Monday. A cu field will start to sprout Monday morning, and a few SHRA/TSRA could pop up right toward the very end of this TAF period. VFR expected; we are likely too dry for a significant fog threat tonight.

Nw winds weaken into tonight; se to s breezes develop Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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