Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chazy, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 5:32PM Friday February 22, 2019 9:27 PM EST (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 9:41AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201812311615;;630280 Fzus61 Kbuf 311142 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 642 Am Est Mon Dec 31 2018 Slz022-024-311615- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 642 Am Est Mon Dec 31 2018
Today..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers late.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rain and snow showers through the early overnight, then rain showers late.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of snow and rain during the day, then a chance of snow Friday night. The saint lawrence seaway is closing to navigation for the season today. Therefore, the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chazy, NY
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location: 44.83, -73.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 222345
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
645 pm est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure continues to build in and crest over the north
country to start the weekend before the weather turns active. A
low pressure system will drive in periods of mixed precipitation
turning to all rain across the region. Accompanying the
rainfall will be strong and gusty southwesterly winds Sunday
evening into Monday. Gusts will be as strong as 30 to 45 mph.

Cold air returns behind this system for next week along with
some light snow on Monday. Expect seasonably chilly temperatures
mid week with highs in the teens and lows in the single digits.

Near term through Saturday
As of 614 pm est Friday... Forecast challenge tonight is areal
coverage of clouds and impacts on temps. Water vapor shows
ribbon of subsidence across northern ny into vt, meanwhile
plenty of moisture is trapped below subsidence inversion
resulting in areas of low clouds, especially in the mountains.

Expecting these clouds to slowly thin overnight with some breaks
to develop as high pres builds directly overhead tonight. The
amount of clearing and locations which experience clear skies
the longest will have the coldest temps. Have updated to
increase clouds over the dacks into parts of central northern
vt thru this evening, bumped temps up several degrees, and made
some minor adjustments to the lows. If skies clear at slk they
reach near 0f with some br hz possible toward morning, but if
they stay clouds with light winds low is closer to 20f. This
will be the story across many parts of our CWA tonight.

Otherwise, no significant or impactful weather anticipated
overnight.

Previous discussion below:the next 24 hours should be wonderful
across the north country under partly to mostly cloudy skies as
high pressure crests aloft. Temps this evening will fall into
the teens this evening after pleasant conditions this afternoon.

Light southwesterly winds will pick up during the morning
Saturday and we'll see temps warm into the mid 30s. That
combined with dew points in the mid 20s will lead to just an all
around great day to spend time participating in outdoor
recreational activities.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 337 pm est Friday... The pleasant weather comes to an
abrupt end Saturday evening as low pressure digging into the
great lakes will lift warm advection precip across the north
country late Saturday night. Thermal profiles are still a bit
all over the place but the general idea is that a strong warm
nose will push in over northern new york initially leading to
widespread wintry mix with some freezing rain. Across the
champlain valley temps should stay cold enough for snow
initially before a quick transition to wintry mix and then to
all rain by mid morning Sunday. East of the greens is still the
tricky location because under southeast flow cold air will
likely be trapped at the surface with warm air overrunning. So
expect periods of sleet snow and possibly some freezing rain
until Sunday afternoon. In the evening hours cold air will be
returning and so we should see a quick transition back to snow
heading into the overnight hours.

Along with the ptype challenge, a strong 850mb jet will by
moving through the region. Depending on mixing gusts Sunday
night into early Monday morning will push into the 40-45 mph
range across the saint lawrence valley and between 35-40 across
the champlain valley and the rest of vermont. We'll certainly
continue to pay close attention to the winds as the strongest
part of the low level jet dives south of the north country but
if we slightly over achieve mixing we could see gusts as high as
50mph.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 337 pm est Friday... Monday starts in the wake of a cold
front that pushed through the north country late on Sunday.

Strong and gusty winds in the range of 30 to 45 mph will
continue throughout the day on Monday before beginning to weaken
Monday night into Tuesday. Strong cold air advection on the
backside of the front will continue to keep low level lapse
rates near super-adiabatic values which will allow these gusty
winds to continue. The only limiting factor for the gusts will
be the strength of the low level jet. Depending on which
deterministic model you prefer, the top of the mixed layer on
Monday ranges from 50 to 60 knots. Now, the full effect of these
winds won't make it down to the surface but the average wind
speed for the mixed layer looks to be in the 30 to 40 mph range
(hence the aforementioned gusts). By Tuesday, the depth of the
mixed layer will begin to shrink and the stronger winds off the
surface will shift eastward. It still looks like winds will be
fairly gusty on Tuesday but won't be nearly as strong as Monday
with winds generally in the 15 to 30 mph range. By Wednesday it
looks like these gusty winds will finally come to an end with
much weaker flow aloft and less steep surface lapse rates.

Looking at precipitation for the extended period, upslope snow
showers will linger through much of the day Monday with an
emphasis on the western slopes of the adirondacks and green
mountains. There may be a period that flow becomes super-
critical and some light snowfall may be seen across the entire
north country prior to drier air filtering in Monday night.

After that, drier air looks to persist for Tuesday with a
surface high centered over the north country. On Wednesday, a
clipper type low pressure system will track across the north
country which could drop an inch or two of snowfall. The system
will be very moving very quickly which will be the main limiting
factor in potential snowfall. Following this system, it looks
like dry weather will persist for Thursday and Friday with
another surface high building over the region.

Looking at temperatures through the forecast period, temps on
Monday will be dropping throughout the day following the fropa
with lows Monday night dropping into the single digits above and
below zero. Temperatures will warm slightly each day through
the upcoming week as the arctic air mass begins to modify under
an increasing Sun angle. By Friday, temperatures will warm back
into the mid 20s to the lower 30s.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Through 00z Sunday... Conditions will remain largelyVFR through
the TAF period as high pressure remains in control. The one
exception to this will be kslk, where some low-level moisture
will remain stuck beneath a steepening inversion overnight and
result in mainly MVFR ceilings through 12z. Satellite imagery
shows some drier air advecting in from the north, so there may
be a period of time between 00z and 04z where ceilings
temporarily lift. However, expecting low-level clouds to return
on light westerly flow through the remainder of the night before
lifting after 12z. WidespreadVFR conditions are expected after
12z, with high clouds thickening through the Saturday afternoon
in advance of the next system. Winds will remain light and
variable through early Saturday afternoon, then trend southerly
through Saturday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite
pl, chance sn, definite fzra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Likely ra, definite fzra, likely shra.

Sunday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Chance shsn, likely shra.

Monday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance shsn.

Monday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. Slight chance shsn.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shsn.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Deal
near term... Deal taber
short term... Deal
long term... Clay
aviation... Rsd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY13 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair26°F15°F63%1031.7 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT17 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair19°F14°F79%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
G22
N12NW8
G18
N7NW5N6N9N13N13N8NW5NW9
G15
6NW7NW73E8E6NW6W83W4CalmCalm
1 day agoSE15
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S15S8SE6S11S8SE4CalmW7
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5W756W44NW8
G16
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE7SE7SE9SE8SE10S7S8S7S8S9SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM EST     2.12 meters High Tide
Fri -- 08:39 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:51 PM EST     2.09 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:31 PM EST     2.10 meters High Tide
Fri -- 09:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.1

Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Fri -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:58 AM EST     0.83 meters High Tide
Fri -- 08:38 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:05 PM EST     0.82 meters Low Tide
Fri -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:39 PM EST     0.86 meters High Tide
Fri -- 09:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.90.90.90.90.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.