Sunrise 5:19 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:28 PM   Moonset 3:12 AM

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SLZ024 Expires:202405182115;;427570 Fzus61 Kbuf 181434 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 1034 am edt Sat may 18 2024
slz022-024-182115- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 1034 am edt Sat may 18 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Patchy drizzle late this morning. Tonight - North winds less than 10 knots. Becoming mainly clear.Sunday - Light and variable winds. Sunny.Sunday night - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Monday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 181955 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 355 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build into the region tonight and continue through early this upcoming week. Warmer and drier weather returns to the North Country with temperatures well into the 70s on Sunday and upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday. Some patchy fog is possible tonight, especially areas that received rainfall today. Building heat will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 332 PM EDT Saturday...Water vapor showing deeper moisture associated with weak trof shifting east of cwa, while subsidence/dry air aloft is building over northern NY into the CPV. This drying wl help to produce clearing skies overnight with some areas of patchy fog. Greatest probability of fog development with vis below 1sm wl be NEK and parts of central/eastern VT, along with portions of the northern Dacks. The highest potential wl be from 07z-11z tonight.
Temps wl cool back into the lower 40s SLK/NEK to l/m 50s CPV/SLV.
Have noted some higher sfc dwpts pooling in the SLV, which combined with temps dropping below cross over values and light winds could result in some fog SLV, but confidence is too low to place in fcst attm.

Sunday/Sunday night is very quiet with building mid/upper lvl ridge, resulting in a dry and warm fcst. Progged 925mb temps warm btwn 15- 16C which is a few degrees warmer than today and should support highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Winds wl be south at 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday night wl be warmer and less areal coverage of fog/br given a day removed from precip and less potential for lows dropping below cross over values. Lows generally in the mid/upper 40s to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...Our warming trend continues on Monday.
Mostly likely high temperatures appear to range from 80 to 84 for most locations with abundant dry air in the 700 millibar level and above sliding through on westerly/northwesterly flow. There may be scattered cumulus with moderately high 850 millibar moisture. As surface based instability grows with daytime heating, sufficient orographic lift should support spot showers and maybe a thunderstorm, especially in the Adirondacks where a chance of showers is indicated. Dry air entrainment and poor mid-level lapse rates do limit the potential of thunderstorms. Very little spatial coverage is expected if anything can fire due to lack of upper level forcing or a surface boundary in the region. Monday night there will be some increasing chances of showers towards daybreak associated with a vigorous shortwave approaching from the central Great Lakes. There are large timing differences with this system, however, as it slides across the upper level ridge in our region, so this part of the forecast is very uncertain at this time. Modest southerly flow will keep temperature rather mild in the upper 50s to low 60s in most locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 342 PM EDT Saturday...A pretty active weather pattern looks to develop, especially midweek. A mix of both heat and thunderstorm potential exists for multiple days, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. While a heat advisory may not be issued, both the WBGT and experimental HeatRisk have continued to trend higher, well into the moderate range, such that I expect heat impacts will occur in our region. Compared to the previous forecast, Tuesday has trended slightly less hot due to the potential for thunderstorms during the daytime, while Wednesday is now looking like the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 80s in most valley locations.

Tuesday is a sneaky severe thunderstorm day as the aforementioned shortwave Monday night could provide very good support for widespread convection if we see heat build ahead of the upper level forcing. Otherwise, the best largest scale severe weather potential is still indicated for Thursday.
However, looking at cluster analysis for the overlap of shear and CAPE, global models are split. Out of the four most likely scenarios, two suggest the cold front moves through too early in the day to support severe weather, one scenario shows best ingredients to our south, and one does favor our forecast area.
Behind the expected cold frontal passage, temperatures look to return to near normal for the later part of the week.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...Light rain showers will exit EFK and MPV in the next 1 to 2 hours with VFR conditions prevailing into the evening hours. Agree with previous forecaster patchy fog is possible (40-50%) on Sunday morning, especially at locations that received rainfall today, such as EFK. Also, have noted slightly higher dwpts at SLK, supporting greater potential for going below cross over temp tonight to support some localized fog/br. Have continued with previous forecaster idea of 1SM in BR for now at SLK/EFK and MPV, which is supporting by model sounding data showing a shallow thermal inversion with saturated sfc conditions. Highest confidence of fog/br potential will be btwn 07-11z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions persist, except a small chance <10% of some shallow fog at MSS, however confidence too low to mention attm. Winds are generally light and variable thru the next 12 to 24 hours.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Sorel
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Sat -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:00 AM EDT     0.81 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 12:26 PM EDT     0.82 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:38 PM EDT     0.80 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet

Islets Perces
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Sat -- 02:25 AM EDT     0.79 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     0.78 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 02:23 PM EDT     0.81 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:16 PM EDT     0.80 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet

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