Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul Park, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:52PM Saturday February 23, 2019 3:53 PM CST (21:53 UTC) Moonrise 11:02PMMoonset 9:30AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul Park, MN
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location: 44.83, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 231809
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1209 pm cst Sat feb 23 2019

Short term (today through Sunday)
issued at 418 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
no significant changes from the previous forecast regarding the
winter storm that will bring heavy snow and wind late Saturday and
Sunday. Confidence remains high in a narrow strip of heavy snow from
southeast minnesota though north central wisconsin. Confidence
remains very high that northwest will increase Saturday night, with
gusts near 50 mph possible across the open areas of minnesota, and
gust near 40 mph possible elsewhere. Confidence remains high that
cold air advection will lead to falling temperatures on Sunday, with
overnight lows going below zero and Monday morning wind chills of 25
to 35 below zero. In summary, confidence is high in significant
impacts from this winter storm.

As for the forecast details, the NAM has come into better agreement
with the GFS gem ECMWF in terms of low strength and placement. It's
mass fields are the #2 analog match with the february 20,21 2014
blizzard. Several sites reported wind gusts over 50 mph with that
storm, and most roads ended up being closed across the south central
minnesota. The main difference this storm is a bit farther east, so
shift the heavy snow band from that event eastward, and you should
have a pretty good proxy of the expected impacts from this storm.

There is a high likelihood of road closures Saturday night into
Sunday for locations that are under a blizzard warning. The snowpack
is deep, should be blowable, and forecast soundings show several
hours with 45-50 kts of wind at the top of the channel. The long
duration of winds should lead to widespread drifting across roads,
along with areas of whiteout conditions.

Hires models show the heaviest swath of snow remaining southeast of
the twin cities, along a line from albert lea through red wing
minnesota and ladysmith wisconsin. Have expanded the blizzard
warning a few counties to the east where we should see strong winds
along with heavy snow. It is unusual to get blizzard conditions
in wisconsin, but the strength and rapid intensification of this
storm is equally unusual. Meanwhile, have also expanded the winter
storm watch a bit north from the current warning. There potential
for winter- storm like impacts with less than 6 inches of snow is
sufficient to support a watch. Would like to see a few more hires
model solutions come in to get a better handle on the
precipitation. Bottom line is there is too much uncertainty to go
with a winter storm or blizzard warning, but there is also to much
potential given the deep snowpack and wind forecast to limit this
event into a winter weather advisory.

Long term (Sunday night through Friday)
issued at 418 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
next week will continue to have a chance of precipitation in the
form of snow. However, these systems next week do not look as potent
or impactful, especially considering the cold arctic air mass
overhead, and the lack of deep moisture. The jet stream will be a
fast zonal flow with occasional short waves interacting with this
jet, and mid-level forcing. This will occasionally generate some
light snow. However, it doesn't look as impactful in terms of heavy
snowfall.

The unseasonably cold temperatures will continue next week, and into
the first part of march. Model ensembles and anomalies of 925mb, and
850mb temperatures are nearly 2 to 3 standard deviations below
normal across the upper midwest next week. It is even colder with
standard deviations in the 3 to 5 below normal along the front range
of the rockies, and into parts of the northern plains. Thus, i
wouldn't be surprised to see record lows next week, and into next
weekend. The normal highs for late february and early march are in
the low to mid 30s and overnight lows near 20.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1209 pm cst Sat feb 23 2019
ifr mist ceilings are expected to continue through the day at area
terminals. Snow will begin moving in from the southeast this
evening tonight, with the heaviest snowfall expected from south-
central minnesota through west-central wisconsin. Expect lifr
snowfall in the heaviest band of snow with ifr snowfall further
north and west. Winds will become strong and gusty out of the
northwest as the snow begins and increase through the morning,
which will result in widespread blowing snow. Gusts as high as 40
kts looks possible by mid- morning. Confidence is low in how far
visibility will drop in the blowing snow through the morning, but
the greatest impacts are expected across southern and southwestern
minnesota.

Kmsp... Delayed the snow start time a few hours, with snow now
expected to begin around 8-9 pm. The heaviest snowfall is expected
to remain southeast of msp, but visibilities may still drop to
lifr during the heaviest snow. Expect gusty northwest winds to
develop with the snow, reaching peak gusts of 35-40 kts from mid-
morning through mid-afternoon. Tough to say how much blowing snow
we'll see and low visibility will drop, but ifr visibilities seem
like a fair bet for now.

Outlook for kmsp
mon...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.

Tue... MVFR with -sn possible. Wind ese 5 kts.

Wed...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Blizzard warning from 9 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday for
wiz024>026.

Winter storm watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon
for wiz014.

Winter storm warning from 9 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday
for wiz015-016-023-027-028.

Mn... Blizzard warning from 9 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday for
mnz067>070-074>078-082-083-091.

Winter storm watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon
for mnz041-042-049-051-059>063.

Blizzard warning from midnight tonight to 6 pm cst Sunday for
mnz047-048-054>058-064>066-073.

Blizzard warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 pm cst Sunday for
mnz084-085-092-093.

Short term... Jrb
long term... Jlt
aviation... Eta


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN8 mi60 minNNE 53.00 miOvercast with Haze32°F27°F82%1009.7 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi57 minNNE 33.00 miFog/Mist32°F30°F93%1008.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi60 minNNE 42.50 miOvercast32°F27°F82%1009.7 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN14 mi77 minNNE 33.00 miFog/Mist32°F30°F93%1009.1 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN18 mi77 minNNE 52.50 miFog/Mist34°F30°F87%1008.1 hPa
Stanton Airfield, MN24 mi58 minNE 83.00 miFog/Mist32°F29°F90%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from SGS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS4CalmSE4SE4E5E4E3E3E6E4E6SE3SE6SE4SE5SE5SE6SE5E4E3E4
1 day agoW6W5W3W7W5W5SW5W3W4--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3
2 days agoE9E8SE4E5SE6SE6SE5S5CalmSW4SW6W11
G15
W8SW11W12
G19
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G14
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G14
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G15
W5CalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.