Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Paul Park, MN

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Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:49PM Monday July 23, 2018 12:58 AM CDT (05:58 UTC) Moonrise 4:38PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul Park, MN
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location: 44.83, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 230413
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1113 pm cdt Sun jul 22 2018

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 250 pm cdt Sun jul 22 2018
another pleasant day today with early morning stratus burning off
into cumulus, dew points in the low 60s, light winds, and
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Increasing moisture in
the central and northern plains however is expected to result in
evening and overnight convection over the dakotas. This will
weaken to perhaps just a few showers by the time it reaches west
central central mn late tonight due to very limited instability.

Maintained chance pops, but reduced the thunder mention. Cams are
not too optimistic for more than a few showers either.

The cold front will be pushing through in the morning. Some
instability will build near and ahead of it by early afternoon and
some thunderstorms could develop along and east of i-35.

Convergence will be very weak, and the lack of focus will be a
detriment to more widespread activity. Did increase pops 10 to 20
percent from the previous forecast, but they remain about 40
percent or less.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 250 pm cdt Sun jul 22 2018
past Monday night, the best chance of widespread rainfall will occur
Wednesday Wednesday night as a stronger frontal boundary, and
associated short wave, moves across the upper midwest. Once this
front passes, the onset of much cooler temperatures develop with
readings averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal for late july.

Models have been consistent with this stronger cold front on
Wednesday, but slight timing differences were noted with the ec
slower than the operational gfs, or the parallel gfs. However, even
with timing differences, the stronger short wave will allow for
better upper level dynamics, and the potential of widespread one
quarter to one half inch of rainfall.

As the main storm system begins to sagged southward into the great
lakes region by late in the week, I wouldn't be surprised to see a
few instability showers as the core of the cold air rotates
southward Thursday or Friday.

There will be a brief moderating in temperatures next weekend as the
core of the coldest air moves southward. However, the mean upper
pattern is conducive for another surge of abnormally cold air
arriving the last week of july, and into early august. Although it
doesn't appear to be record cold, forecast dew points the week of
july 30th lowers into the 30s 40s in northern minnesota, with
40s 50s in southern minnesota.

Overall, there is a high probability of cooler than normal
temperatures after Wednesday, with lower chances of rainfall and
more comfortable humidity levels.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1113 pm cdt Sun jul 22 2018
thunderstorms moving into northwest mn are quickly losing their
umph with diminishing radar returns and warming cloud tops.

Nothing changed with the expectation of a mainly dry fropa. Expect
isolated storms to develop along the boundary from mkt up toward
the twin cities in the afternoon, but coverage looks limited
enough preclude the inclusion of even a vicinity in the tafs.

Still a threat for a breif MVFR cig behind the front at axn and
maybe stc, but confidence in that happening is not high enough to
go with any sub-vfr conditions. Down in south central mn, we are
seeing a growing number of short term models develop some fog down
there, including the lav, so did add a brief br mention.

Kmsp... Main windown for seeing a thunderstorm will be between 19z
and 22z. Coverage looks low enough though to keep the mention out
of the taf.

Outlook for kmsp
tue...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Wed... Chc MVFR -shra -tsra. Wind W bcmg NW 10g20 kts.

Thu... Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10g20 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Borghoff
long term... Jlt
aviation... Mpg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi83 minN 010.00 miFair71°F61°F73%1017.9 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN8 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair70°F62°F76%1017.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi65 minNE 410.00 miA Few Clouds71°F63°F76%1017.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN14 mi83 minN 010.00 miFair64°F62°F94%1018.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN18 mi83 minN 010.00 miFair68°F64°F88%1018.3 hPa
Stanton Airfield, MN24 mi83 minN 07.00 miFair64°F62°F95%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN45NE4--N3NE4NE8NE6NE6N7NE8NE6N103NW7--N6NE9N7NE6N4CalmCalm
1 day agoN8N8N7N8N6N9N6N7N105N8N11N10NE10
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2 days ago4N5N7N8N10N7N9N10NW11N11NW10N13NW11
G18
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G19
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G17
N13NW9NW9NW8N10N9NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.