Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:19 AM   Moonset 3:19 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS63 KMPX 040600 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 100 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Another chance for showers and possible thunderstorms exists this evening through Saturday morning.

- Dry Saturday afternoon through the rest of the weekend with warmer temperatures expected Sunday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A beautiful Friday has unfolded as sunny skies have allowed temperatures to rise into the 60s across most of the area. Even a few 70s have been observed in southern MN and western WI. It is a little breezy across WI, likely owing to the confluent surface pressure gradient. Clouds are in the process of moving in from the west, however, as our next shortwave arrives tonight. An isolated thunderstorm may occur later this afternoon across western MN but showers are expected to move in from west to east this evening through Saturday morning. They will eventually move east by Saturday afternoon, leaving the remainder of the weekend dry. CAMs have been picking up on the possibility of two heavier areas of rainfall, one from western to central MN and the other in southern to southeastern MN. In these locations, rainfall has a good chance of exceeding 0.5" while a minima of 0.1-0.2" would be in between. The southern band also looks to be convective in nature (judging from non-zero CAPE in RAP soundings) so perhaps a lightning strike or two could occur during Saturday morning. The rest of Saturday looks decent, albeit a bit cooler as clouds will be in the process of clearing. Highs are forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Sunday still looks great with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Monday also continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s)
but, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as we progress through the day. Ensemble guidance forecasts a very strong, negatively-tilted trough to eject east of the Rockies (and into the Southern/Central Plains) during Monday. An expansive, moist warm sector created ahead of the trough over the Plains should allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Forecast models show this activity extending all the way north into the Dakotas ahead of a cold front that stems from a deepening surface low in the Northern High Plains. This band of precip is forecast to move east through our region Monday night into Tuesday. While the strongest convection will likely be in the Central Plains, a couple of stronger storms will not be out of the question due to probable strong vertical wind shear and non-zero CAPE. How strong and numerous those storms are will be largely dependent on how much CAPE can be realized, though. The grand ensemble advertises another good chance of at least an accumulating, widespread rain. Western and southern MN currently have a 50% chance of seeing at least 1" of rainfall through Tuesday afternoon. Winds should also be very breezy Monday into Wednesday as NAEFS and EPS ensembles show the surface low deepening enough to achieve climatologically minimum mean SLP over the Northern High Plains.

After Tuesday, it seems like precipitation chances will persist for the majority of next week as the upper-level low cuts off and hangs out over the northern CONUS before moving east. We can expect at least periods of persistent clouds and cooler temperatures underneath the cool air of the cyclonic flow center.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Rain showers will spread across the area this morning, impacting western MN overnight through sunrise, central & eastern MN through early to mid-morning, & western WI mid-morning into early afternoon. Predominately low-end MVFR visibility & ceilings are expected with the rain, although periods of IFR conditions are possible. MVFR ceilings will linger for a few hours after the rain ends, with ceilings eventually rising & clearing out through the afternoon. Winds will generally be northerly to northwesterly between 5-10 kts, with some gusts up to 20kts during the morning through mid-afternoon. WInds drop below 5 kts after sunset with clear skies overnight.

KMSP...Rain is expected to start between 6-7 AM with visibility down to 3 miles & ceilings around 1000 ft expected. Brief IFR conditions are possible during the heaviest rain, more likely as lower ceilings as opposed to visibility. The rain will end around noon with MVFR ceilings lingering into mid-afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Minneapolis, MN,