Friday, November16, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Bloomington, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:44PM Friday November 16, 2018 3:53 PM CST (21:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bloomington, MN
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location: 44.83, -93.31     debug

Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 162020
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
220 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 220 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018
surface analysis this afternoon shows a clipper low pressure center
over the central cd NE border with canadian high pressure centered
over western alberta province but nudging into the northern plains.

Aloft, a large upper level low persist over hudson bay with a broad
longwave trough encompassing much of eastern-central noam. Several
shortwave trough axes are rounding the western and southern
peripheries of the upper low, of which the one currently dropping
through the dakotas and into the central plains tonight will be the
main player to interact with the aforementioned surface low. The
trough axis will remain positively-oriented, generally ene-wsw, as
it drops through the upper mississippi river valley late tonight.

Moisture is fairly compact and limited to near proximity of the
upper trough and surface low, and within fairly progressive flow
thru the upper levels. This would in essence limit duration of
snowfall, plus the track of the surface low would also keep best
accumulations south of i-94, even to the limit where northern
fringes of the WFO mpx coverage area may see little to no
accumulations. However, enhanced fgen along and south east of the
surface track, which is aligned with the entrance region of an
arriving jet streak aloft, may help enhance snowfall amounts just a
bit. So, for the latest forecast depictions, we've gone more along
what multiple hi-res models have indicated which is lesser
qpf snowfall north of i-94 then a tighter gradient south of i-94 to
the ia border. In that area, which is where the winter wx advy
continues, there will be 3-5" accumulations with less than 3" to the
north. Timing is still generally on track with -sn already being
reported in western mn, translating to eastern mn (including the tc
metro) around 23z, then continuing into western wi. The heaviest
snowfall looks to occur 01z-05z, then gradually diminishing such
that only flurries looks to be left over by 09z-12z on into late
Saturday morning.

In addition to the snowfall from the passing surface low, a
tightened pressure gradient will follow the low on its way off to
the south and east, keeping breezy gusty conditions in place
overnight through tomorrow. These winds will produce 2 results:
some blowing drifting snow (mainly for western mn) and wind chills
down into the single digits overnight through Saturday morning.

Conditions will steadily improve during the day on Saturday but
temperatures will remain cold. Lows tonight will drop to the 10-
20 deg f range while highs Saturday will only reach 15-25 deg f.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 220 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018
deep troughing aloft becomes established over the weekend with well-
below normal temperatures expected to continue into Tuesday. A
couple weak clippers will skim across the area Monday & Tuesday as
jetstreaks embedded in the flow aloft provide a few periods of
widespread ascent aloft. Little moisture will be present given the
arctic airmass in place however so only a few hundredths of an inch
of precipitation are expected. Only looking at a dusting of snow
with these systems across central minnesota and northwest wisconsin,
but it would not surprise me for both waves to come through dry with
little more than an increase in cloud cover.

The deep trough moves off to the east midweek as strong ridging
builds over the central us, with the jet being pushed all the way up
over hudson bay. The euro is stronger with the ridge and as a result
is warmer, with 850 mb temperatures above 12 c thanksgiving day over
western minnesota compared to 8-10 c with the gfs. Despite the warm
temperatures aloft, surface temperatures will be dependent on the
extent of existing snow cover from tonight's system as well as the
amount of cloud cover with predominately southeast winds. Currently
expecting highs to be in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday, with the
potential for some areas to get into the upper 40s on thanksgiving
if we see plenty of sunshine.

The ridge breaks down to end the week as another wave approaching
Friday. What kind of temperatures precipitation possible will depend
on where this wave spins up a low, but Friday into Saturday looks
like our most organized shot at precipitation for next week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1138 am cst Fri nov 16 2018
MVFR ceilings will slowly erode to upper-levelVFR ceilings but
only for a short duration this afternoon. An approaching clipper
low will slide from the dakotas to the mid-mississippi river
valley region through tomorrow morning, bringing a 6-9 hour period
of -sn this evening through the early morning hours. Will look
for ceilings to drop to MVFR levels with some ifr visibilities.

Lower confidence on ifr ceilings but cannot be ruled out
altogether. Conditions to steadily improve from around daybreak
through the day tomorrow toVFR levels. Breezy gusty NW winds will
settle in overnight through much of tomorrow on the backside of
the progressive low, which could produce some extended
blowing drifting snow issues through the day Saturday.

Kmsp... Main issue is pinpointing the timing of the snow, which has
a high likelihood of impacting the evening push. Best timing is
around 23z at this point but that may be adjusted once definitive
swaths of -sn start appearing on kmpx radar. Heaviest period of
-sn still looks to come after 00z and last for a few hours with
accumulations of around 2 inches likely, with 3 inches on the
very high end of the model spectrum.

Outlook for kmsp
sun...VFR. Winds SW 10 kts.

Mon... MainlyVFR. MVFR ceilings possible. Winds nnw 5-10 kts.

Tue...VFR. Winds NE 5 kts becoming s.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 6 am cst
Saturday for mnz068>070-076>078-083>085-091>093.

Winter weather advisory until 4 am cst Saturday for mnz047-048-

Short term... Jpc
long term... Eta
aviation... Jpc

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi61 minNW 510.00 miOvercast32°F24°F73%1017.9 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi61 minN 410.00 miA Few Clouds31°F21°F69%1017.7 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN9 mi59 minWNW 510.00 miFair32°F23°F70%1016.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN14 mi79 minNW 510.00 miOvercast30°F26°F86%1016.6 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN16 mi61 minNNW 410.00 miFair32°F21°F66%1017.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN18 mi61 minNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F21°F66%1017.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN23 mi69 minWSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F24°F70%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW8SE4CalmW4W8NW12NW12NW13NW15
1 day agoS11S11
2 days agoW8W4CalmCalm44SE5SE4SE6SE6SE6SE6SE6SE5SE5SE8SE8SE7SE5S8S10S8S13S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.