Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincoln Beach, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:02PM Thursday January 17, 2019 1:22 AM PST (09:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:55PMMoonset 4:02AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 148 Pm Pst Wed Jan 16 2019
.gale warning in effect from 4 pm pst this afternoon through Thursday evening...
Tonight..SE wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 12 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Rain in the evening, then showers likely and a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..S wind 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Combined seas 23 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW wind 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 23 ft with a dominant period of 16 seconds. Rain.
Fri..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 18 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds, subsiding to 15 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Fri night..S wind 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Combined seas 19 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds. Rain.
Sat..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. SW swell 17 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE wind 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 15 ft. Rain.
Sun..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 11 ft.
Mon..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 8 ft.
PZZ200 148 Pm Pst Wed Jan 16 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. A low well off the northern ca coast deepens today and Thu. The strong low will track northward about 290 nm off the or and wa coast on Thu. This low will bring gale force gusts along with 20 foot or higher seas through Friday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincoln Beach CDP, OR
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location: 44.86, -124.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 170412
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
812 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019

Updated aviation section...

Synopsis A low pressure system offshore of the oregon coast will
produce rain, cascade snow, gusty east winds through the gorge as
well as a mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain for the gorge tonight
through Thursday morning. This low will also cause strong winds and
dangerous surf along the beaches Thursday and Thursday night, and
additional cascade snow. A moist frontal system will produce another
couple inches of rain over the weekend with snow levels above 6000
feet. Drier weather is expected Monday and Tuesday.

Short term Tonight through Saturday... A closed low currently
around 590 miles will produce an interesting mix of weather and
hazards the next 24 hours or so. This low will be responsible for
rain, cascade and gorge snow, strong winds, and large surf.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for the gorge and the upper
hood river valley tonight through Thursday morning as a front moves
across the region. The forecast confidence is greater that winter
weather will impact the central gorge and the hood river valley than
the western gorge. Precipitation should primarily fall as snow for
the hood river valley, and the central gorge tonight turning to
freezing rain Thursday morning, and eventually all rain Thursday
afternoon. Temperatures in the western gorge have warmed above
freezing today, but increasing east winds through the gorge combined
with evaporative cooling with the rain will provide the opportunity
for temperatures to dip back down to near freezing tonight. If this
happens, then freezing rain is likely in the western gorge and the
roads will be slippery. We will monitor temperatures in the gorge
closely as this event progresses.

Snow levels will be around 4000 feet for the wa and north or
cascades, where 3 to 5 inches of snow can be expected tonight through
Thursday morning. Snow levels in the lane county cascades will be
around 5000-5500 feet where 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible through
Thursday morning.

Strong east winds continue through the western columbia river gorge
and east portland metro area tonight and early Thursday morning. The
east pressure gradient tightens tonight and expect localized gusts of
45-50 mph in the far east metro area, and 60 to 70 mph for the
western gorge.

As the aforementioned offshore low heads northeast towards
vancouver island tonight and Thursday, another strong front
approaches. This front will push rain into the region later Thursday
morning and afternoon. Snow levels still holding near 4000 feet, and
expect a good shot of cascade snow Thursday evening. At this point,
generally 4 to 9 inches is expected Thursday night through Friday
morning. It will stay mild enough in columbia gorge and hood valley
to prevent snow or ice there. The coast, coast range and
cascade foothills can expect 1 to 1.5 inches of rain Thursday
afternoon through Friday morning, with around a half of an inch for
the interior low lands.

This second front will produce strong winds along the coast late
Thursday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, there is just too
much east component to realize strong south winds for the coast ahead
of the front. But, as the front comes onshore, gradients align more
favorably for gusty south wind which may locally reach 45 to 55 mph
along the beaches and headlands.

Another beach hazard expected Thursday and Thursday night is large
surf. A high surf warning has been issued for the central oregon
coast, and a high surf advisory for the north oregon and south
washington coast. The gfs-based enp wave guidance and ECMWF wave
model continue to show 20-25 ft waves impacting the surf zone
Thursday through Friday morning. 12z spectral guidance for buoy 050
indicates peak wave heights of 25 ft with a dominant period around 17
seconds beginning late Thu morning. This happens to occur a couple
hours after peak high tide. Our local coastal flood index tool
indicates an energy index of 160-170 with a 30-degree incidence angle
offset (swell direction 240 deg vs. 270 deg). This is very close to
high surf warning criteria. The tool also output a coastal flood
index (cfi) of 20-21. Typically 22 is the threshold for coastal flood
warning. Based on recorded impacts from previous events, opted to go
with a high surf warning for the central oregon coast. Overall wave
energy will be a little lower for the north oregon and south
washington coast so went with a high surf advisory there.

Precipitation will decrease Friday morning, but do not expect much of
a break as another low follows close behind. A moist warm front
will bring additional rain Friday afternoon and night followed by a
cold front on Saturday. This frontal system looks to have a decent
tap into subtropical moisture, and has the potential to produce an
additional widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain Friday afternoon through
Saturday evening. Snow levels should remain well above the cascade
passes for this system. ~tj rockey sw

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday... As the upper level
trough responsible for the atmospheric river shifts overhead Sunday,
precipitation should turn more showery in nature, and the snow levels
will lower. An upper trough will maintain showers through Sunday with
snow levels around 4500-5500 feet. Models are in great agreement that
an upper level ridge will build Monday and Tuesday for drier weather,
and cooler nights. ~tj

Aviation PrimarilyVFR conditions tonight along the coast and
interior. MVFR conditions in sections of the columbia river gorge
with snow showers along with gusty east winds. MVFR conditions
possible at inland sites Thursday afternoon.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions expected tonight at the airport
and west approach. MVFR conditions tonight on the eastern approach
with snow showers in the gorge and cascades reducing visibility and
lower ceilings. Gusty east winds near 30 kts on eastern approach
near outlet of columbia river gorge through 15-17z thurs morning.

MVFR ceilings possible Thursday afternoon. -tw

Marine A developing 970 mb low continues tracking northward
off the oregon coast through Thursday night. Buoys 46029, 46050,
46089 are currently reporting small craft gusts. These winds
have been increasing throughout the day and are expected to
continue this trend into the evening hours. Gales are expected to
reach the outer waters by tonight, and the inner waters by early
Thursday morning.

The operational models continue to be in agreement that this low
will steadily track towards vancouver island, british columbia
through early Friday.

Seas are expected to exceed 20 feet by late Wednesday night for
the outer waters, with the inner waters meeting or exceeding 20
feet by Thursday afternoon. Peak wave height will be 20 to 25
feet. High seas and a long period of around 16 seconds will
cause high surf conditions for the beaches Thursday through
Friday morning.

Looking into the extended, the operational models are in
agreement that the next round of gales could impact the area by
Friday evening. Seas could once again approach 20 feet or
higher. Weishaar 42

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory from 10 am Thursday to 10 am pst Friday for
north oregon coast.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am pst
Thursday for central columbia river gorge-upper hood river
valley-western columbia river gorge.

High surf warning from 10 am Thursday to 10 am pst Friday for
central oregon coast.

Wa... High surf advisory from 10 am Thursday to 10 am pst Friday for
south washington coast.

Winter weather advisory from 6 pm this evening to 10 am pst
Thursday for central columbia river gorge-western columbia
river gorge.

Pz... Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 4 pm
pst this afternoon.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from midnight
tonight to 4 pm pst Thursday.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for coastal
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Gale warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm pst Thursday for
coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out
60 nm.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 16 mi40 min SE 12 G 16 56°F 51°F994.5 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 17 mi22 min SE 11 G 16 55°F 994.1 hPa (-1.5)
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 28 mi32 min SE 23 G 37 10 ft993.5 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 48 mi40 min 51°F995 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR19 mi27 minSE 12 G 1910.00 miFair54°F42°F67%995.3 hPa

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:10 AM PST     2.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:01 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM PST     6.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:55 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:52 PM PST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:03 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:00 PM PST     4.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.632.52.22.4345.26.16.56.35.64.63.3210.30.10.51.42.63.64.44.6

Tide / Current Tables for Newport, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.