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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincoln Beach, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:30PM Saturday March 23, 2019 2:08 PM PDT (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:02PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 251 Am Pdt Sat Mar 23 2019
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through Sunday morning...
Today..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 12 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of showers. Slight chance of tstms in the morning.
Tonight..SW wind 5 kt, becoming se with gusts to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 11 ft at 15 seconds.
Sun..SE wind 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the W 1 ft at 4 seconds in the afternoon. W swell 9 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun night..E wind 5 kt. Wind waves E 1 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..SE wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming S 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves S 4 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 10 ft at 12 seconds. Rain.
Mon night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the evening. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 8 ft at 13 seconds. SEcondary swell sw 5 ft at 9 seconds. Showers likely.
Tue..SE wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 6 ft.
Wed..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. SW swell 6 ft.
PZZ200 251 Am Pdt Sat Mar 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Upper troughing brings continued showers and possibly Thunderstorms Saturday. High pressure briefly moves through the waters Saturday night. Unsettled weather returns next week, with another front arriving Sunday night into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincoln Beach CDP, OR
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location: 44.86, -124.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 231624
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
915 am pdt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis A brief period of high pressure will bring a dry and mild
day on Sunday before much of next week turns cool and showery as a
series of weak fronts push across the region.

Short term Today through Monday... Water vapor satellite imagery
shows a shortwave trough approaching the oregon and california coast
this morning. The main mid to upper level lift will spread onshore
south of the region. However, with daytime heating we should see
conditions destabilize enough across northwest oregon and southwest
washington to see a few showers bubble up this afternoon. Have
inherited a slight chance mention of thunderstorms and small hail and
opted to trim the coverage and timing a bit as it appears rather
marginal. Specifically, models indicate very little flow in the low
to mid levels of the atmosphere this afternoon so updrafts will have
a hard time sustaining themselves and anvils blowing off the top of
any convection will have a tendency to limit surface heating.

Nonetheless, SREF and href guidance suggests rain chances will likely
be highest along the east slopes of the coast range during the early
afternoon hours and then as outflows converge, we could see a few
showers slowly work their way into the willamette valley later in
the afternoon and early this evening. Expect shower coverage to
decrease rather quickly this evening and patchy valley fog to
develop once again.

Shortwave ridging traversing the region on Sunday should lead to a
rather pleasant day with some high clouds traversing the region and
high temperatures reaching into the low 60s. The break in the dry
weather will be short lived as another shortwave trough originating
from the gulf of alaska settles into the eastern pacific early next
week. This will push a front into the region with widespread rain
likely spreading northeastward across the area on Monday. There may
be enough instability behind the front to lead to a thunderstorm or
two as well. We should experience decreasing showers Monday night.

With southwesterly flow and cool temperatures aloft, cannot rule out
a few additional showers Tuesday, but overall, it should be
considerably less wet than Monday. Neuman

Long term Monday night through Friday... No changes. Previous
discussion follows. Active weather next week, as a large upper-level
trough sits off the coast of washington and oregon most of the week,
sending shortwaves into the pacific northwest. Used the national
blend of models primarily for precipitation chances through next
week because deterministic guidance doesn't reflect the uncertainty
in the timing of these shortwaves that is reflected in more of a
probabilistic forecast produced by the nbm.

Monday night we will have lingering post-frontal showers from the
first of these shortwaves. Deterministic models (gfs and ecmwf) show
us drying out on Tuesday as we are between systems. The nbm,
however, keeps a chance of a few showers suggesting a the
possibility of weaker, unresolved shortwaves generating a few
showers on Tuesday. Have left a chance of showers in the forecast on
Tuesday. Wednesday, deterministic models show another shortwave
moving in, and this is supported by an increase in chance for rain
in the nbm. Therefore, have likely pops in the forecast for
Wednesday. Thursday, the trough that has been sitting offshore all
week finally starts to weaken and move onshore. This will keep
showers over our area through Thursday. There is greater uncertainty
on Friday, with some guidance showing the development of an upper-
level ridge starting Friday into next weekend, which would dry us
out, or the pattern turning to more zonal flow which could keep a
chance for showers on Friday. For that reason, the nbm keeps a
chance for showers on Friday. The nbm does show a trend toward lower
pops, however, suggesting most of the ensemble members are leaning
toward drier conditions Friday going into next weekend. -mccoy

Aviation GenerallyVFR along the coast this morning, but a
wide range of conditions inland. Interior valleys, especially
portions of the willamette valley had localized lifr in fog. This
has become more isolated as of 1530z. An upper level trough will be
over the region through this evening. This will result in scattered
showers, primarily over the higher terrain. Thus, expect generally
vfr conditions 18z through about 07z sun.

However, there is the potential for brief MVFR in heavier showers.

Also cannot rule out an isolated afternoon thunderstorm from the
cascade foothills to the coast. Weak surface gradients overnight may
lead to local MVFR to ifr fog for the interior valleys and coast.

Kpdx and approaches... Expect mainlyVFR through 12z sun. However,
there is the potential for brief MVFR through early evening if any
heavier showers move near or across the terminal. Very small chance,
around 10 percent, for an afternoon thunderstorm.

Decreasing cloud cover tonight with the possibility of ifr fog in
the tualatin valley. Weishaar

Marine No changes to current forecast. Wind speeds primarily
15 kt or less through sun. Another splitting front approaches the
waters late Sun and pivots northeast Sun night. The bulk of the
energy will be over N california and S oregon waters, but small
craft advisory level wind speeds will be possible in pzz275. Will
look at this in more depth for the afternoon forecast. Gusts to 25
kt likely Mon throughout the waters.

Seas will remain 11 to 12 ft today and then slowly ease tonight and
sun. Expect seas to fall just under 10 ft by late Sun morning.

However, wave heights likely to get just above 10 ft late Sun night
and mon.

The waters remain under the influence of a large trough for much of
next week, but with little additional impacts. Seas are forecast to
drop back below 10 ft Tuesday and remain around 5 to 7 ft with winds
staying below 20 kt out of the south and southeast. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 am pdt Sunday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or out 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar until 11 am
pdt Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 16 mi38 min SW 8 G 12 52°F 52°F1022.9 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 17 mi68 min SSW 9.9 G 12 52°F 1023 hPa (+1.1)
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 28 mi38 min WSW 5.8 G 9.7 1023.2 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 48 mi44 min 51°F1023 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR19 mi33 minSW 117.00 miFair54°F48°F82%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW9SW7SW6SW4SW5CalmCalmE3CalmE3E4SE4E5E5CalmE4E9E9E7SE6SE6SE6SE8S14
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Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
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Sat -- 03:15 AM PDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:07 AM PDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:50 PM PDT     5.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:12 PM PDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:02 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.64.35.76.46.35.54.22.71.30.3-0.10.21.32.84.35.45.75.34.43.2210.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Newport, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.