Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lincoln Beach, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:44PM Thursday May 23, 2019 3:48 PM PDT (22:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:47AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 232 Pm Pdt Thu May 23 2019
Tonight..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt in the evening. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri..NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 6 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW wind 15 to 20 kt, easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. NW swell 8 ft at 9 seconds, building to 11 ft at 10 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers.
Sat..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kt in the morning. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 10 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun..N wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 6 ft.
Sun night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 5 ft.
Mon..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
Tue..W wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.
PZZ200 232 Pm Pdt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will reside over the northeast pacific through the weekend. Upper level disturbances will drop south along the coast Friday and again on Saturday, bringing some gustier winds.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincoln Beach, OR
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location: 44.86, -124.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 232138 cca
afdpqr
area forecast discussion
weather service portland or
232 pm pdt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis A weak ridge of high pressure will move over southwest
washington and northwest oregon tonight with northerly flow aloft. A
few showers or thunderstorms are possible mainly over the cascades
and coast range late this afternoon and evening. Friday, an upper low
will move south down the british columbia coast and over washington
and northwest oregon bringing scattered showers to the area. Cooler
weather will accompany this system with temperatures falling below
normal for the weekend. By Saturday, colder air will bring snow
levels down to the higher cascade passes. No significant
accumulations are expected but those planning recreation for the
holiday weekend will be impacted. Weak ridging late Sunday and Monday
will reduce the shower threat.

Short term Today through Sunday...

weak upper ridge and northeast flow over the area this afternoon with
a few showers popping up over the coast range early this afternoon.

Enough instability for showers and a slight threat of thunderstorms
over cascades this afternoon and evening but conditions over the
valleys are more stable today as a result of all the low level
marine air. Good onshore flow will continue tonight and expect deep
marine layer with lots of clouds after midnight. On Friday a
shortwave is dropping south out of bc and into washington and
northern oregon. This will increase the showers over the area.

Gfs ec NAM show quite a good area of precip... Although light, but nbm
pops are only in the chance category. We may need to up the pops if
the low becomes more active as it develops but climatology for this
time of year is against widespread stratiform precipitation.

On Friday night models have the upper low over eastern oregon with
another shortwave dropping south into the longwave trough. That
brings another significant threat of showers to southwest washington
and NW oregon. By this time cooler air aloft has reached the
cascades and snow levels drop to around 4500 feet. This should bring
some snow showers to the passes, but surfaces will be warm enough to
prevent much accumulation on roadways, unless there is a heavy
shower. Still the cold air and moderate elevation snow will make for
less than ideal camping and recreating conditions for early in the
holiday weekend.

Sunday the main upper low moves south into california and northerly
flow returns, much like yesterday and today. That will allow more
breaks in the clouds and some sunshine in the valleys. The increased
surface heating along the NE flow aloft could result in thunderstorms
again over the mountains. Schneider

Long term Sunday night through Thursday... A broad, strong upper-
level trough finally starts to kick this persistent upper-level
ridge that has been nearly stationary off the west coast off to the
east, meaning a pattern change is in store next week. With the shift
of high pressure inland early next week, we will see partly cloudy
skies and little to no shower activity Tuesday through Thursday. We
will also see temperatures inland get up into the mid-to-upper 70s.

Persisting onshore flow should keep temperatures from getting too
warm next week.

Aviation The marine stratus deck that filled the interior
lowlands this morning has mostly burned off at this point.VFR
conditions now prevail over the interior and should continue
through this evening. However, based on the latest satellite
imagery, it does not appear that the coast will break out at all
today. Ifr conditions should persist through tonight, although a
brief hour or two break in the clouds cannot be ruled out at
kast late this afternoon. The stratus will push back in tonight.

Expect the inland TAF sites to see MVFR CIGS return between 08z-
12z. An upper level trough and the associated remains of an
offshore front will move onshore Fri morning. It is unclear
exactly what this will mean for the cloud cover. Think that the
associated lift from these features may result some marginal lifting
in the cigs, but also possibly produce some drizzle or light
showers as the moisture deepens over the region.

Kpdx and approaches...VFR conditions prevail through this
evening. Expect MVFR stratus to return by 08z-12z fri. Some
drizzle or light showers may develop in the mid to late morning
as a weak disturbance moves into the region. Pyle

Marine Surface high pressure will remain over the NE pacific
through this weekend. With thermal low pressure over northern
california, winds are northerly over the coastal waters today.

They will be gusting in the 20 to 25 kt range over the outer
waters later this afternoon and this evening. A small craft
advisory is now in effect. A couple of upper level disturbances
will drop south along the washington and oregon coast on Friday
and again on Saturday. Winds will increase over the washington
and far northern oregon waters on Friday in response to this
first system, with gusts likely reaching 30 kt. Isolated gusts to
35 kt aren't out of the question beyond 40 nm, but don't expect
we will need a gale warning at this time. Winds will gradually
subside Sat and should remain fairly benign through the rest of
the weekend. No significant marine impacts are expected over the
first half of next week.

Seas will be a bit of nuisance over the next couple of days.

Current observations show that they remain on the choppy side, at
around 7 to 8 seconds with a dominant period of 9 to 10 seconds.

Decided to issue a small craft advisory for pzz270 starting late
this evening, as model spectral guidance suggests that square
seas will return. In the meantime, strong winds off of vancouver
island will result in seas building Friday into the weekend.

Expect seas to build into the low teens across our coastal waters
fri morning, and remain above 10 ft through at least Sat morning.

Seas are expected to gradually subside sat, reaching 5 ft or less
by sun. Pyle

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds until 11 am pdt Saturday for
waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to florence or from 10 to
60 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 11 pm this evening
to 5 pm pdt Saturday for waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to
cascade head or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for winds from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Friday
for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa to cascade head
or out 10 nm.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 8 am Friday to 5
pm pdt Saturday for coastal waters from CAPE shoalwater wa
to cascade head or out 10 nm-waters from cascade head to
florence or from 10 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory for rough columbia river bar from 7 am to
11 am pdt Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 16 mi37 min NW 6 G 11 54°F 54°F1017.2 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 17 mi49 min NNW 11 G 13 53°F
46097 21 mi179 min NNW 12 54°F 56°F1017.3 hPa
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 28 mi29 min NNW 12 G 16 1017.9 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 48 mi37 min 55°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport Municipal Airport, OR19 mi54 minNNW 95.00 miFog/Mist54°F51°F94%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from ONP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9N8NW8N10N10
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N4N7N7N6N8N7N6N9N8N7N6CalmN7N4N8N10NW8NW9N8
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CalmS4SE4SE5SE5E5E8E7E7E7E7E7E5SE4SW3W5SW3NW3NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon
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Kernville
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Thu -- 12:35 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:01 AM PDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:39 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:47 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:43 AM PDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:15 PM PDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:46 PM PDT     2.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.43.24.255.35.14.53.52.41.20.3-0.3-0.40.11.12.23.34.14.54.43.93.32.72.3

Tide / Current Tables for Newport, Yaquina River, Oregon
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Newport
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Thu -- 12:34 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:21 AM PDT     7.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:40 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:48 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:32 AM PDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:35 PM PDT     6.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:35 PM PDT     3.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.65.76.67.17.16.353.31.60.3-0.5-0.50.11.42.84.35.4665.54.843.63.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.