Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sturgeon Bay, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday July 19, 2018 12:41 PM CDT (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:06PMMoonset 12:08AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1005 Am Cdt Thu Jul 19 2018
This afternoon..SE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Becoming partly cloudy.
Tonight..SE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..E wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Friday night..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
LMZ521 Expires:201807192215;;720874 FZUS53 KGRB 191505 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1005 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-192215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sturgeon Bay, WI
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location: 44.87, -87.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 191739
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
1239 pm cdt Thu jul 19 2018
updated aviation portion for 18z TAF issuance

Short term Today... Tonight... And Friday
issued at 318 am cdt Thu jul 19 2018
clouds will increase today and lower as a low pressure system
approaches from the west. Recent model runs have been a bit slower
in bringing the low and associated precipitation in across the
area with each run, with this run being no different. Current
model runs keep the area dry through the early afternoon, with a
chance for some rain to make it in across the west late this
afternoon. Model soundings show quite a bit of dry air to be
overcome which is evidenced by the 00z kgrb RAOB sounding.

Therefore will continue to slow the progression of precipitation
across the area today.

Rain chances will increase precipitously later tonight and into
Friday as the main low tracks through the region. In addition to
the slower movement of the low and associated precipitation, the
models continue to track the main low pressure system to the south
on Friday across southern wisconsin or northern illinois
depending on which model is chosen. The main take home point seems
to be that the area will stay out of the warm sector and
therefore the prospects for any strong to severe storms is very
low.

Modest instability of a few hundred j kg will bring the chance for
thunderstorms at times with the showers, however as was mentioned
earlier these storms are not expected to be anything other than
garden variety thunderstorms. With the main low and forcing
expected to stay to the south the prospect for heavy rain tonight
and Friday appears to be much lower than previously forecast,
therefore flooding is not expected to be much of a concern as
this low moves through the area.

Highs today are expected to be a bit warmer than previously
forecast due to the slower introduction of precipitation to the
area with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight under
clouds cover and rain will be relatively mild in the lower to
middle 60s. Fridays highs will only be in the lower to middle 70s
with abundant cloud cover and rain showers for the balance of the
day.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
issued at 318 am cdt Thu jul 19 2018
the latest GFS ensemble mean indicates that below normal upper level
heights will be present over the western great lakes for much of
this period. This upper troughing should keep the very warm temps
and high humidities well south of the region. Therefore, the main
forecast concerns revolve around precip chances this weekend. Models
have shifted south in regards to the track of the low, and the
gfs ECMWF compare relatively well.

Friday night through Saturday night... Low pressure will be moving
across southern lake michigan on Friday night. Though there will be
a chance of precip at most locations, appears northeast wi will have
the best chance of seeing widespread rainfall, due to upper
divergence and weak mid-level fgen overhead, and a pwat axis
extending northward over the eastern part of the state. With pwats
around 1.8 inches, some decent rainfall totals appear possible. The
low slowly migrates to the southeast on Saturday. Scattered showers
look to continue, particularly over eastern wi, though there should
be an uptick in coverage with the daytime heating. Showers should
gradually diminish for most locations except for eastern wi on
Saturday night, as the low continues to slowly move away from the
region. Still should see plenty of cloud cover with brisk northeast
winds. Due to widespread clouds and precip chances, highs on
Saturday to remain in the low to mid 70s.

Rest of the forecast... Think most of the shower activity will have
departed by Sunday, but still evidence of mid-level convergence, so
will leave a slight chance in the forecast. Despite the departing
low, low levels will remain moist, so anticipate partly sunny to
mostly cloudy skies will continue. The next chance of precip will
arrive on Monday night along a weak cold front and shortwave trough.

A more potent front remains on track to arrive midweek.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 1238 pm cdt Thu jul 19 2018
scattered to brokenVFR clouds are expected through dusk, except
near lake michigan where it will be clear. A low pressure system
will bring showers and a few thunderstorms later tonight and
Friday, along with ifr or MVFR conditions.

Kosh Vfr conditions will prevail through most of the evening,
then conditions will become MVFR and possibly ifr late tonight and
part of Friday as a low pressure system approaches.

The system is expected to stall across southern lake michigan
Saturday, and keep showers and MVFR conditions across oshkosh and
surrounding areas. Pilots needingVFR conditions might be very
limited around osh Friday and Saturday. Sunday should have improving
conditions.

Seaplanes may encounter waves of 1 to 2 ft along the west shore
of lake winnebago Friday and Saturday.

Grb watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... ..Kurimski
long term... ... Mpc
aviation... ... .Rdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi42 min SE 11 G 13 72°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.9)61°F
45014 20 mi42 min S 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 74°F1015 hPa (-1.0)
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi42 min SSE 5.1 G 7 68°F 1015.3 hPa (-0.6)
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 37 mi62 min SE 6 G 8 69°F 1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI3 mi46 minSSE 1210.00 miFair74°F61°F64%1017.3 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi46 minS 10 G 1510.00 miFair76°F61°F60%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4E7SE9S9SE7S7SE8S8S6S6S6S6S6S6S6S5S6S5S5S8S7S8SE9SE12
1 day agoN10N9N7N4N7N7E6E4E4E3E4NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4NW4W5
2 days agoW8W10
G15
W11W13W11NW7W7W6--N7NE5N6N6N5NW5NW9--N8N11N10N10
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.