Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Landfall, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 4:34PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 4:42 AM CST (10:42 UTC) Moonrise 2:09PMMoonset 2:46AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MN
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location: 44.92, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 180855
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
255 am cst Tue dec 18 2018

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 230 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
the main forecast concern is whether any measurable precipitation
(freezing drizzle) develops late tonight, and into Wednesday
morning before temperatures rise above freezing. The area of
concern is mainly for south central minnesota, and west central
wisconsin.

Early morning satellite imagery noted several short waves across
the western conus. One was moving northeast across oklahoma,
and into kansas and missouri. Another short wave was evident
across western montana, with the stronger of the waves moving
slowly eastward across new mexico. The short wave across oklahoma
will affect south central minnesota, and west central wisconsin
late tonight, and into Wednesday. This system is lacking deep
moisture and current radar returns are unorganized and weak with
this system. Moisture will need to be induced by stronger warm air
advection later tonight as this system moves close to the upper
midwest. Due to the weakness of this system, and moisture depth
lacking, I am not expecting much in the way of precipitation, only
patchy freezing drizzle drizzle or some snow depending upon if
ice is introduced into the system. As this system moves off to the
east, the short wave across montana will begin to gain strength
as it moves toward minnesota Wednesday afternoon. I wouldn't be
surprised to see light rain sprinkles across southern central
minnesota by late in the day, but nothing measurable.

Temperatures today will reflect the current surge of warmer air
in the boundary layer and the lack of snow cover. I wouldn't be
surprised to see a few more 40s if cloud cover is less. Tonight
temperatures will again remain well above normal with some
readings not falling before freezing as moisture slowly increases.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)
issued at 250 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
Wednesday night and Thursday weather will be affected by the short
wave moving across montana. Although there is some jet energy with
this system, it remains unorganized and more energy will be
focused along the gulf coast as the main storm begins to take
shape in this region. Precipitation amounts have been limited to a
few hundredths at best, and the current model trends remain
consistent with this scenario. Any weather impacts will be timing
of the freezing drizzle and not necessarily the amount.

Cooler weather will follow this system on Thursday with
temperatures falling back to slightly above normal, compared to
well above normal we have been experiencing.

In previous discussions, the split flow regime will become more
zonal and progressive this weekend. A few weak systems will begin
to affect the upper midwest this weekend. Timing and the strength
of each system remains uncertain, especially considering the
pattern change as models usually do a poor job this scenario.

Higher confidence still remains on temperatures falling back to
more seasonable, but still slightly above normal for late
december.

Next week weather pattern is slowly becoming more interesting in
terms of active weather vs. Benign weather over the past week or
so. Both the GFS ec become highly amplified with a broad trough
developing across the western CONUS next week. This pattern change
with the broad trough in the west will begin to buckle the mean
upper air flow to a more amplified scenario. This amplified
scenario will lead to a storm system developing into the plains.

Since lots of people travel during this week, it would be wise to
stay abreast on any future forecast.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1052 pm cst Mon dec 17 2018
the probability for MVFR conditions late tonight across western
mn has decreased and the 06z tafs have reflected that. Satellite
shows no such development yet and models appear too moist in the
low levels. Mostly mid to upper level cloud cover is expected for
the next 24 hours. Low level wind shear around 1500 ft expected
across southern mn into western wi late tonight as inversion
deepens and southwest winds increase aloft.

Kmsp... Took out the sct020 mention in there for Tuesday with drier
air in the low levels looking like a good bet.

Outlook for kmsp
wed...VFR with MVFR -shra possible late. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

Thu...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW at 15g25 kts.

Fri...VFR. Wind N at 5 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Jlt
long term... Jlt
aviation... Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN3 mi49 minSSE 910.00 miFair30°F19°F66%1016.2 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN9 mi59 minSSE 810.00 mi30°F21°F69%1015.9 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN9 mi67 minSE 310.00 miFair29°F19°F68%1015.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi49 minSE 810.00 miFair29°F21°F72%1015.8 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN20 mi47 minSSE 10 G 1610.00 miFair32°F21°F64%1013.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN23 mi49 minSSE 1210.00 miFair31°F21°F67%1014.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair32°F24°F75%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW4NW6NW5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5SE6SE5E5SE7SE6SE5SE6SE7SE6SE9SE9SE8SE9
1 day agoCalmN3CalmN4CalmW8W10NW11W9W9W12NW10W9W9NW11NW11
G19
NW12NW9NW10NW9NW9NW7NW8NW6
2 days agoSE4S3SE5CalmSE6S7S9SE6SE7SE9SE9SE9S10S9SE10S5S8SE5SE5SE5CalmS3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.