Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:02AM||Sunset 7:04PM||Tuesday September 25, 2018 7:46 AM CDT (12:46 UTC)||Moonrise 6:47PM||Moonset 6:21AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kmpx 251118|
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
618 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 408 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
plenty of dynamics aloft at work today as an amplified upper-level
trough passes over the area today along with a strengthening 100
kt jet rounding its base. This forcing will generate widespread
precipitation along a surface boundary draped from the central
plains to the great lakes. Any instability to speak over remains
south of the area into iowa and southern wisconsin, so only
expecting showers and light rain during the day. Timing brings
this activity into southwest minnesota around sunrise this
morning, spreading northeast during the day and finally moving off
into central wisconsin shortly after sunset tonight. A few widely
scattered instability showers are possible across central
minnesota into the evening after the main shield of precipitation
moves through but any additional rainfall from these will be
light. Overall not expecting more than a quarter to half an inch
of rain for any one location today.
Temperatures will be much cooler today under northwest flow along
with the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, with highs in
the 50s expected. Skies will begin to clear out overnight as high
pressure begins to build behind the departing system. How cold
lows Wednesday morning get will depend on the extent of the
clearing, but t he wet ground from Tuesday's rain should keep
locations from really bottoming out. A few areas in the 30s
expected across central minnesota and west-central wisconsin with
lows in the 40s along and south of i-94.
Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 408 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
one thing has not changed with the extended, it looks active (precip
chances every 1-3 days) and cooler than normal, though nothing crazy
on the temperature departures.
One thing that is expected to remain persistent through the long
term is ridging across the northern pac up across alaska. As we go
through the week, we'll see the eastern noam ridge shift off to the
southeast of greenland, this will allow our initial deep trough to
flatten out. As the trough flattens out, will see ridging build over
the southeast CONUS as lower heights undercut the alaskan ridge down
the west coast. The alaskan ridge will help keep a persistent feed of
cool air coming into canada, while the southeast ridge west coast
trough will place a baroclinic zone and strong zonal flow overhead.
First system of interest is a short wave that will move across
southern canada Wednesday into Thursday. Models continue to trend
this system to be both weaker and farther north, with our
precipitation potential on a downward trend. What has not changed
though is that behind this system, high pressure will drop down from
canada, providing us with our coldest air of the season thus fair for
Friday and Saturday. Friday will likely see highs struggle to hit
50, while Saturday night, it is looking increasingly likely that we|
will see our first widespread frost of the season, with a good
freeze across central mn into northwest wi. Beside the cold for
Friday, there will be a strong baroclinic zone in the region, with
a broad west-east deformation band forecast to setup across the
northern plains. This band will end up south of the area, but the
ecmwf continues to be the farthest north with the band, with precip
making it up into far southern mn, where we have some chance pops
spreading across the area. Given how dry the incoming high is
though, a more southerly solution for precipitation as seen with the
gfs looks more likely.
The next system is still expected to arrive Sunday Monday, but we
saw a big shift with the ECMWF with this system with its 25.00 run.
The ECMWF slowed this system considerably and has mn and wi
essentially dry on Sunday, with precip moving in Sunday night into
Monday. This system looks pretty strong on both the GFS and ecmwf
and will have to be watched closely as both models have a synoptic
setup that would support the threat for severe weather. For now we
stuck with the blended forecast for pop, which spread chances in
across the area Sunday, but if the shift from the ECMWF holds, we
may sneak another nice day in this weekend on Sunday.
Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 618 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
widespread cloud cover this morning with generally ifr conditions across
southern and eastern minnesota into western wisconsin, and low-
end MVFR across central and western minnesota. Ceilings may
improve slightly through the morning, before widespread showers
spread northeast out of southwest minnesota. Rainfall should be
light with only MVFR visibility and ceilings expected. Showers end
from west to east this afternoon withVFR conditions developing
and winds becoming westerly this evening.
Kmsp... Expect ceilings to bounce around ifr low-end MVFR at the
beginning of the period, but should rise above the 017 threshold
by late morning. MVFR showers move in around noon and should be
mostly east of the terminal by late afternoon.VFR conditions
develop this evening.
Outlook for kmsp
wed pm...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -shra. Winds wnw 15g25 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.
Mpx watches warnings advisories
Short term... Eta
long term... Mpg
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Downtown Holman Field, MN||3 mi||54 min||NNW 7||10.00 mi||Overcast||52°F||48°F||89%||1013 hPa|
|Lake Elmo Airport, MN||9 mi||72 min||NW 5||10.00 mi||Overcast||52°F||51°F||100%||1012.9 hPa|
|South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN||9 mi||52 min||NNW 4||10.00 mi||Overcast||53°F||51°F||94%||1012.9 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN||12 mi||54 min||NW 7||10.00 mi||Overcast||53°F||51°F||93%||1012.8 hPa|
|Minneapolis / Blaine, MN||20 mi||60 min||WNW 8||10.00 mi||Overcast||54°F||51°F||94%||1012.9 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN||23 mi||54 min||NNW 7||10.00 mi||Overcast||52°F||48°F||89%||1012.9 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN||23 mi||72 min||N 7||10.00 mi||Overcast||54°F||53°F||100%||1012.9 hPa|
Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||S||SE|
|2 days ago||SE||S||S||S|
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (8,2,3,4)(on/off)  Help
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