Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Landfall, MN

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:04PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 7:46 AM CDT (12:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:47PMMoonset 6:21AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MN
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location: 44.92, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 251118
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
618 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 408 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
plenty of dynamics aloft at work today as an amplified upper-level
trough passes over the area today along with a strengthening 100
kt jet rounding its base. This forcing will generate widespread
precipitation along a surface boundary draped from the central
plains to the great lakes. Any instability to speak over remains
south of the area into iowa and southern wisconsin, so only
expecting showers and light rain during the day. Timing brings
this activity into southwest minnesota around sunrise this
morning, spreading northeast during the day and finally moving off
into central wisconsin shortly after sunset tonight. A few widely
scattered instability showers are possible across central
minnesota into the evening after the main shield of precipitation
moves through but any additional rainfall from these will be
light. Overall not expecting more than a quarter to half an inch
of rain for any one location today.

Temperatures will be much cooler today under northwest flow along
with the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, with highs in
the 50s expected. Skies will begin to clear out overnight as high
pressure begins to build behind the departing system. How cold
lows Wednesday morning get will depend on the extent of the
clearing, but t he wet ground from Tuesday's rain should keep
locations from really bottoming out. A few areas in the 30s
expected across central minnesota and west-central wisconsin with
lows in the 40s along and south of i-94.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 408 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
one thing has not changed with the extended, it looks active (precip
chances every 1-3 days) and cooler than normal, though nothing crazy
on the temperature departures.

One thing that is expected to remain persistent through the long
term is ridging across the northern pac up across alaska. As we go
through the week, we'll see the eastern noam ridge shift off to the
southeast of greenland, this will allow our initial deep trough to
flatten out. As the trough flattens out, will see ridging build over
the southeast CONUS as lower heights undercut the alaskan ridge down
the west coast. The alaskan ridge will help keep a persistent feed of
cool air coming into canada, while the southeast ridge west coast
trough will place a baroclinic zone and strong zonal flow overhead.

First system of interest is a short wave that will move across
southern canada Wednesday into Thursday. Models continue to trend
this system to be both weaker and farther north, with our
precipitation potential on a downward trend. What has not changed
though is that behind this system, high pressure will drop down from
canada, providing us with our coldest air of the season thus fair for
Friday and Saturday. Friday will likely see highs struggle to hit
50, while Saturday night, it is looking increasingly likely that we
will see our first widespread frost of the season, with a good
freeze across central mn into northwest wi. Beside the cold for
Friday, there will be a strong baroclinic zone in the region, with
a broad west-east deformation band forecast to setup across the
northern plains. This band will end up south of the area, but the
ecmwf continues to be the farthest north with the band, with precip
making it up into far southern mn, where we have some chance pops
spreading across the area. Given how dry the incoming high is
though, a more southerly solution for precipitation as seen with the
gfs looks more likely.

The next system is still expected to arrive Sunday Monday, but we
saw a big shift with the ECMWF with this system with its 25.00 run.

The ECMWF slowed this system considerably and has mn and wi
essentially dry on Sunday, with precip moving in Sunday night into
Monday. This system looks pretty strong on both the GFS and ecmwf
and will have to be watched closely as both models have a synoptic
setup that would support the threat for severe weather. For now we
stuck with the blended forecast for pop, which spread chances in
across the area Sunday, but if the shift from the ECMWF holds, we
may sneak another nice day in this weekend on Sunday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 618 am cdt Tue sep 25 2018
widespread cloud cover this morning with generally ifr conditions across
southern and eastern minnesota into western wisconsin, and low-
end MVFR across central and western minnesota. Ceilings may
improve slightly through the morning, before widespread showers
spread northeast out of southwest minnesota. Rainfall should be
light with only MVFR visibility and ceilings expected. Showers end
from west to east this afternoon withVFR conditions developing
and winds becoming westerly this evening.

Kmsp... Expect ceilings to bounce around ifr low-end MVFR at the
beginning of the period, but should rise above the 017 threshold
by late morning. MVFR showers move in around noon and should be
mostly east of the terminal by late afternoon.VFR conditions
develop this evening.

Outlook for kmsp
wed pm...VFR. Wind W 10-15 kts.

Thu...VFR. Chc -shra. Winds wnw 15g25 kts.

Fri...VFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Eta
long term... Mpg
aviation... Eta


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN3 mi54 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast52°F48°F89%1013 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN9 mi72 minNW 510.00 miOvercast52°F51°F100%1012.9 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN9 mi52 minNNW 410.00 miOvercast53°F51°F94%1012.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi54 minNW 710.00 miOvercast53°F51°F93%1012.8 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN20 mi60 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1012.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN23 mi54 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast52°F48°F89%1012.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi72 minN 710.00 miOvercast54°F53°F100%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE9SE9S11S10S12
G18
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G24
S9S7S8S4S4NW10NW7N9N4N7NW7N5NW10NW8NW11NW10NW7
1 day agoSE5SE8SE6SE6SE6S8SE11
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2 days agoSE6S6S7S15
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G19
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G16
S5SE5SE3S4SE5SE5SE5SE4CalmCalmSE4S3SE3

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.