Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Landfall, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 9:03PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 7:57 PM CDT (00:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:25PMMoonset 12:31AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MN
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location: 44.92, -93     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 202317
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
617 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018

Update For 00z aviation discussion below

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 310 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
main focus of the short term continues to obviously be the heavy
rainfall potential with the occluded low pressure system just to our
southwest. The model guidance today came in with a northward shift
in the QPF bullseye which is still focused across far northern iowa.

However, the risk has increased for significant rainfall through
tonight along the i-90 corridor due to this northward shift.

Precipitable water values of over 1.7 inches with ample lift but
limited CAPE will lead to efficient rainfall rates. On top of that,
the very slow moving nature of this system is key as the i-90
corridor will likely see steady rain nearly all night, leading to
the potential for several inches of rain.

The guidance today was in good agreement with the placement of the
heaviest rain. A blend of the hi-res guidance indicates a
realistic potential for 2-4" of rainfall near martin and
faribault counties, with localized higher amounts possible. Still
think the heavies will remain south of the iowa state line, but
did include these two counties in a flash flood watch through
tomorrow morning. This is definitely a long duration rainfall
event for far southern minnesota. As we head into tomorrow, the
occluded system will be very slowly working east-southeast with
time and lingering showers will likely last through the day across
southern mn.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 310 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
the upper-level low parked over the mid-missouri valley will finally
begin to move east Thursday night, with showers coming to an end
across far-southern minnesota. As the low departs a brief period of
high pressure moves in with dry & pleasant weather expected Friday
into Saturday afternoon.

Over the weekend, various weak perturbations in the upper level flow
will pass overhead which will provide enough support to generate at
least slight chances for scattered thunderstorms Saturday & Sunday.

The pattern looks to get more active Monday into mid-week as another
upper-level wave comes off the northern rockies. Large scale
southerly flow from a surface high over the eastern seaboard will
allow our dewpoints to increase into the upper 60s by Wednesday.

Cape values look to be greater than 1000-2000 j kg & pw values
approach 1.5" so the potential for severe weather & flooding will
have to be monitored. Models differ in timing of the upper-level
wave over our area so have capped pops in the 50% range mid-week.

Temperatures into next week will be relatively consistent &
seasonable, with highs around 80 & overnight lows around 60.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 618 pm cdt Wed jun 20 2018
an area of rain over northern iowa will continue to lift north
across southern minnesota tonight and early Thursday morning.

This rain should primarily affect krwf and kmkt, with attendant
MVFR conditions at worst. Elsewhere, mid high clouds will prevail
through the period. Winds will be predominately northeast through
the period at 6-10 knots with gusts into the mid upper teens at
southern sites (krwf and kmkt).

Kmsp...

the area of rain will drift close to kmsp, but more likely not
impact the site. A slightly better chance arrives around daybreak
Thursday, but odds are still in the favor of a dry taf.

Outlook for kmsp
fri...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.

Sat...VFR. Chc -tsra. Wind NW 5 kts.

Sun...VFR. Slgt chc -tsra. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Flash flood watch through Thursday morning for mnz091-092.

Short term... Spd
long term... Eta
aviation... Ls


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN3 mi65 minE 710.00 miOvercast77°F59°F54%1009.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN9 mi83 minENE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F60°F57%1010.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN9 mi83 minE 610.00 miOvercast76°F58°F55%1010.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN12 mi65 minENE 11 G 2310.00 miOvercast78°F59°F52%1009.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN20 mi2.2 hrsE 10 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F57°F45%1010.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN23 mi65 minENE 710.00 miOvercast78°F57°F48%1009.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi63 minE 710.00 miOvercast73°F66°F78%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE6E3CalmNE4NE5E4NE6NE5SE3NE3NE4E6E6NE11
G15
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G17
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E7
1 day agoNE7NE4E5NE11NE9NE12
G20
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E3NE5NE13SE8E5E12
G23
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G21
SE8E7E9E7E10E9E7E5E44
2 days agoCalmN7NW4NW4CalmNW4N6N5N6N6N10N9N5N4N7N8NE8N7NE7NE11NE7NE8NE8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.