Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:43AM||Sunset 4:34PM||Tuesday December 18, 2018 4:42 AM CST (10:42 UTC)||Moonrise 2:09PM||Moonset 2:46AM||Illumination 83%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MNHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kmpx 180855|
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
255 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 230 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
the main forecast concern is whether any measurable precipitation
(freezing drizzle) develops late tonight, and into Wednesday
morning before temperatures rise above freezing. The area of
concern is mainly for south central minnesota, and west central
Early morning satellite imagery noted several short waves across
the western conus. One was moving northeast across oklahoma,
and into kansas and missouri. Another short wave was evident
across western montana, with the stronger of the waves moving
slowly eastward across new mexico. The short wave across oklahoma
will affect south central minnesota, and west central wisconsin
late tonight, and into Wednesday. This system is lacking deep
moisture and current radar returns are unorganized and weak with
this system. Moisture will need to be induced by stronger warm air
advection later tonight as this system moves close to the upper
midwest. Due to the weakness of this system, and moisture depth
lacking, I am not expecting much in the way of precipitation, only
patchy freezing drizzle drizzle or some snow depending upon if
ice is introduced into the system. As this system moves off to the
east, the short wave across montana will begin to gain strength
as it moves toward minnesota Wednesday afternoon. I wouldn't be
surprised to see light rain sprinkles across southern central
minnesota by late in the day, but nothing measurable.
Temperatures today will reflect the current surge of warmer air
in the boundary layer and the lack of snow cover. I wouldn't be
surprised to see a few more 40s if cloud cover is less. Tonight
temperatures will again remain well above normal with some
readings not falling before freezing as moisture slowly increases.
Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)
issued at 250 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
Wednesday night and Thursday weather will be affected by the short
wave moving across montana. Although there is some jet energy with
this system, it remains unorganized and more energy will be
focused along the gulf coast as the main storm begins to take
shape in this region. Precipitation amounts have been limited to a
few hundredths at best, and the current model trends remain
consistent with this scenario. Any weather impacts will be timing
of the freezing drizzle and not necessarily the amount.
Cooler weather will follow this system on Thursday with
temperatures falling back to slightly above normal, compared to
well above normal we have been experiencing.|
In previous discussions, the split flow regime will become more
zonal and progressive this weekend. A few weak systems will begin
to affect the upper midwest this weekend. Timing and the strength
of each system remains uncertain, especially considering the
pattern change as models usually do a poor job this scenario.
Higher confidence still remains on temperatures falling back to
more seasonable, but still slightly above normal for late
Next week weather pattern is slowly becoming more interesting in
terms of active weather vs. Benign weather over the past week or
so. Both the GFS ec become highly amplified with a broad trough
developing across the western CONUS next week. This pattern change
with the broad trough in the west will begin to buckle the mean
upper air flow to a more amplified scenario. This amplified
scenario will lead to a storm system developing into the plains.
Since lots of people travel during this week, it would be wise to
stay abreast on any future forecast.
Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1052 pm cst Mon dec 17 2018
the probability for MVFR conditions late tonight across western
mn has decreased and the 06z tafs have reflected that. Satellite
shows no such development yet and models appear too moist in the
low levels. Mostly mid to upper level cloud cover is expected for
the next 24 hours. Low level wind shear around 1500 ft expected
across southern mn into western wi late tonight as inversion
deepens and southwest winds increase aloft.
Kmsp... Took out the sct020 mention in there for Tuesday with drier
air in the low levels looking like a good bet.
Outlook for kmsp
wed...VFR with MVFR -shra possible late. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW at 15g25 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind N at 5 kts.
Mpx watches warnings advisories
Short term... Jlt
long term... Jlt
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Downtown Holman Field, MN||3 mi||49 min||SSE 9||10.00 mi||Fair||30°F||19°F||66%||1016.2 hPa|
|Lake Elmo Airport, MN||9 mi||59 min||SSE 8||10.00 mi||30°F||21°F||69%||1015.9 hPa|
|South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN||9 mi||67 min||SE 3||10.00 mi||Fair||29°F||19°F||68%||1015.6 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN||12 mi||49 min||SE 8||10.00 mi||Fair||29°F||21°F||72%||1015.8 hPa|
|Minneapolis / Blaine, MN||20 mi||47 min||SSE 10 G 16||10.00 mi||Fair||32°F||21°F||64%||1013.9 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN||23 mi||49 min||SSE 12||10.00 mi||Fair||31°F||21°F||67%||1014.6 hPa|
|Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN||23 mi||67 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||32°F||24°F||75%||1015.2 hPa|
Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||N||Calm||N||Calm||W||W||NW||W||W||W||NW||W||W||NW||NW|
|2 days ago||SE||S||SE||Calm||SE||S||S||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||S||S||SE||S||S||SE||SE||SE||Calm||S||Calm||Calm|
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (5,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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