Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tonka Bay, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:44PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 2:32 PM CDT (19:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:41PMMoonset 6:54AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tonka Bay, MN
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location: 44.92, -93.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 211746
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1246 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019

Updated for 18z aviation discussion
Issued at 1232 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 406 am cdt Tue may 21 2019
high clouds are streaming in overhead and are thickening early
this morning. Mid level moisture will be increasing through the
day, while a dry easterly flow continues in the lower levels. Low
pressure over northwest ok will lift north to eastern NE late this
evening and to central mn by Wednesday evening. Widespread rain
will lift north aided by strong divergence aloft and impressive
moisture advection at 850 mb. The rain has been delayed a bit from
previous forecasts due to slower progression in the models and
the dry low level flow. Widespread rain will lift northward
tonight and Wednesday morning. A dry slot is expected to reach the
southeastern half of the CWA mid morning Wednesday, roughly from
a new ulm to twin cities line, but rain will continue west of that
line into the afternoon as the surface low tracks through.

Temperatures were lowered substantially tomorrow with considerable
cloudiness expected and are close to raw consensus. If Sun can
break out, it may be a bit warmer across southern mn into western
wi, but this appears unlikely attm, unlike areas further south and
east.

The main concern will be the wind this afternoon and evening. Href
mean 850 mb winds ramp up to 70 kts as the e-w jet lifts north
into central and southern mn early this evening. In addition, mean
sustained surface winds have most of the CWA pegged near 30 mph,
which is wind advisory criteria. Forecast soundings imply peak wind
gusts in the 40-45 kt range appear likely over much of the area
late this afternoon through the evening. Therefore, expanded the
wind advisory north and east to include the rest of east central
mn and pierce and st. Croix counties in wi.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)
issued at 406 am cdt Tue may 21 2019
main concern in the longer term is timing of upper trough and
individual waves moving through. That and if significant warming will
occur around the Friday time frame.

The Wednesday upper low lifts off to the northeast Wednesday night
and should end the shower threat in the evening. The GFS appears
slowest with the trough so we will retain the low chance pops over
the northern CWA overnight. Following this we have some cooling as
high pressure moves through. Some sunshine should be able to warm
temperatures through the 60s, a bit cooler than models advertised
yesterday, which has been the overall trend.

The next trough lifts rapidly northeast into Thursday night into
Friday. The warm sector appears to brush the southeast cwa.

Instability increase with this area and will see some scattered
thunder with the system as it moves through. At the moment we have
around one half inch total qpf, with a little more to the far
southeast. It appears the system will move through quickly, limiting
overall heavier rain threat. Timing for severe weather is not good
as it moves through mainly Thursday night.

We tempered temepratures some from blended guidance for Friday as
well as cooler air rushes in behind the retreating occluded system.

We should still warm through the low mid 70s over the eastern cwa.

Finally, for the overall holiday weekend, the GFS is most pessimistic
with its small chance of showers dropping into southern mn and
western wi on Sunday. Its northern stream trough is a bit more
amplified vs the ECMWF which retains a cool high pressure system.

We will hold onto the blended guidance slight chance pop for now.

Models suggest most of Monday will remain dry as well, with
timing of the next western CONUS system moving in Monday night.

Clouds will increase during the day with temperatures remaining
some 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1232 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
vfr conditions will gradually deteriorate as low stratus and rain
moves up from the south later this afternoon. Could see ceilings
drop below 1000ft as the surface lows moves closer to the region
this evening and overnight. Winds will be very strong out of the
east, and at 2000 ft will be 50 to 55 kts. Did not add wind shear
since the surface winds are in the same direction, but be prepared
for some turbulence later this evening and overnight. On
Wednesday conditions will gradually improve and winds will
eventually become more southerly.

Kmsp...

rain should hold off at kmsp until 23z, and should remainVFR
until ceilings lower around 03z this evening. Could see ceilings
drop below 1500 ft overnight, but ceilings should rise again
Wednesday morning. Expect easterly winds to increase today, but
then slowly subside after midnight tonight.

Outlook for kmsp
thu... MVFR cigs. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Fri... Chc MVFR. Winds SE becoming SW at 15g30 kts.

Sat...VFR with MVFR possible early. Wind wnw at 10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Wind advisory until 1 am cdt Wednesday for wiz023-024.

Mn... Wind advisory until 1 am cdt Wednesday for mnz041>044-047>070-
073>078-082>085-091>093.

Short term... Borghoff
long term... Dwe
aviation... Jrb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi40 minE 15 G 2610.00 miOvercast59°F37°F46%1015.1 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN16 mi40 minE 15 G 2310.00 miFair61°F37°F43%1015.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN20 mi40 minESE 24 G 3110.00 miOvercast and Windy60°F35°F39%1015.9 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN21 mi58 minno data10.00 miFair60°F38°F44%1016.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN24 mi38 minE 9 G 2010.00 miFair60°F35°F41%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE64E6E5E4E4E5E4CalmE5E5NE3NE6NE4NE5NE5NE4E8E8SE11E13
G25
E17
G26
E15
G26
E15
G26
1 day agoN15
G28
N15
G24
N14
G27
N11
G19
N13
G21
N14
G23
N12
G23
N11
G19
N6NE5CalmNW4NW6W6W5W4NW7N8NW53CalmCalmE5E8
2 days agoNE17
G24
NE11
G20
NE13
G22
NE13
G23
E18
G26
NE15
G24
E17
G27
NE13
G23
E11
G22
NE8NE11NE11
G19
NE16
G25
NE12
G22
NE10NE9N9
G17
N7N10N12
G20
N10
G21
N10
G25
N13
G21
N12
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.