Friday, April27, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tonka Bay, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:15PM Thursday April 26, 2018 11:27 PM CDT (04:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 3:55AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tonka Bay, MN
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location: 44.92, -93.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 270345
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1045 pm cdt Thu apr 26 2018

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 255 pm cdt Thu apr 26 2018
sky should clear to the east early with winds diminishing. The
next frontal system is fast on its heals and will sweep through
late tonight to the northwest and exit the southeast CWA Friday
morning. Strong northwest winds expected in its wake with just a
small chance of showers mainly over northwest wi region.

Temperatures will warm close to readings of today mid 50s to some
lower 60s to the southeast.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 255 pm cdt Thu apr 26 2018
the longer term trends continue to show warming ahead of the
frontal system that is currently forecast to move through around
Tuesday.

Ahead of the front, southerly flow increases Sunday and a weak
short wave lifts northeast with the surface warm front Sunday
night and Monday. Instability moisture increases ahead of the
warm front and may be enough to generate some convection along the
llj. Temperatures should warm through the the 60s to some lower
70s possible Sunday and into the 70s for Monday, which looks like
the warmest day of the period.

The warm front shifts off to the east Monday with the front
moving through Tuesday. Will continue low chance pop for thunder
with the system at this time. The unsettled pattern will continue
into the later part of next week but we should see drying develop
as upper ridging warmer air tries to return. The GFS is most
bullish in driving the western CONUS ridge east into next weekend.

The ECMWF not so much as it retains more of the eastern conus
trough and northwest flow across the western great lakes.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1045 pm cdt Thu apr 26 2018
minimal changes to 00z tafs with timing of cold front that is
currently on the doorstep of grand forks, nd. Based on winds we
saw behind todays front and what we are seeing with forecast
soundings behind the front for Friday, did nudge wind speeds a bit
above what the lav had. Again, looks like moisture is lacking in
the hrrr is showing precip remaining northeast of all mpx
terminals, so have maintained a dry forecast. In addition, we
should see a sct-bkn CU field drop down from northern mn during
the afternoon, that will mainly impact areas along and east of the
ms river. By the time they get here though, CIGS should be 4k to
5k feet agl.

Kmsp... FROPA still looks good for the 14z to 15z timeframe. This
will result in crosswinds for the morning push as winds will be
turning from the SW to NW during that time.

Outlook for kmsp
sat...VFR. Winds N 5 kts or less bcmg se.

Sun...VFR. Winds S increasing to 15g25kts.

Mon... Chc MVFR -shra -tsra. Winds S 15g25kts.

Fire weather
Issued at 250 pm cdt Thu apr 26 2018
will leave red flag warning going with strong northwest wind to 40
mph over parts of west central mn. Lowest rh level seen has been
26 percent. Still have strong subsidence moving through that
region per latest satellite water vapor imagery. Still could see
rh levels dropping off around 25% by late afternoon. Winds are
expected to diminish quite rapidly after 7 pm.

Windy conditions will develop in the wake of the next cold front
Friday morning to the west and region wide in the afternoon. May
not be as strong S today and rh levels drop off through the upper
20s to lower 30s percent. Continues the elevated fore weather
conditions for Friday afternoon. Low rh levels continue into
Saturday but winds will be light under surface ridging. We will
have to monitor Sunday afternoon as winds increase again ahead of
the frontal system developing to the west. Rh levels are expected
to drop off into the upper 20s low 30s percent again and it will
be modulated by how quickly we can advect higher dewpoints into
the area.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Dwe
long term...

aviation... Mpg
fire weather... Dwe


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi35 minNW 910.00 miFair50°F28°F44%1013.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN16 mi35 minWNW 710.00 miFair47°F26°F44%1013.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN20 mi35 minNW 610.00 miFair50°F26°F39%1013.9 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN21 mi33 minWNW 710.00 miFair48°F27°F44%1014.6 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN24 mi32 minNNW 510.00 miFair52°F22°F31%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW3S3S6S7SW8SW3S8S8SW10W10NW12NW11NW11
G19
NW11NW18
G24
NW16
G20
N14
G20
N13
G19
NW13
G20
N8NW6NW8NW9
1 day agoN9N7N8N6N5N6N4N6NE7E64E53SW5--35SW7SW7W6W4SW4SW3S3
2 days agoNE7CalmCalmW3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmNW6NW8N10N16
G23
N13N15
G21
N12
G19
N14
G21
N11
G23
N10N12N7N4N6N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.