Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tonka Bay, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:47PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:22 AM CST (16:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:00PMMoonset 10:50PM Illumination 41% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tonka Bay, MN
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location: 44.92, -93.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 141123
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
523 am cst Wed nov 14 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 251 am cst Wed nov 14 2018
today's high temperatures will be the first time since the 6th
of november that readings will rise above the freezing mark. Highs
in the 50s will occur along the lee of the buffalo ridge in
west southwest minnesota, with readings in the upper 30s to lower
40s in central east central minnesota. Only west central wisconsin
will likely hold in the lower to middle 30s which is still a lot
warmer than it has been since the first week of november. It has
been a very cold period for all of the upper midwest, especially for
western wisconsin, and the eau claire airport. The eau claire
airport recorded another record low maximum on Monday. The record
tied the previous year of 1986 which both dates only managed to rise
to 17 degrees. Last Friday, eau claire also recorded a record low
maximum of 24 degrees which broke the old reading of 26 degrees set
in 1979.

The mean upper level pattern has shifted slightly over the past 24
hours. A series of storm system have moved into british columbia
which has broken down the mean upper ridge over the western half of
the conus. An area of low pressure has developed along the lee of
the canadian rockies which will lead to a south southwest flow in
the boundary layer over the northern plains, and upper midwest. This
flow will bring much milder pacific type air over the next 24-36
hours. Gusty winds will accompany the warmer temperatures along with
some high cloudiness streaming southeast across the upper midwest
later today. No precipitation will occur through Wednesday afternoon
as the main storm system will move well north of the region, and
deep moisture is lacking.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 251 am cst Wed nov 14 2018
the end of the week will feature the continuance of west northwest
flow aloft, which will bring a couple quick shots of light precip
late Thursday and again late Friday. Mild temperatures will
continue to be observed ahead of these waves, with highs mostly in
the 40 to 50 degree range on Thursday accompanied by brisk
southwest winds.

A cold front passes Thursday night and brings cooler temps in the
30s for highs on Friday. Given cooler temps at the surface and
aloft, the Friday night precipitation will more likely be in the
form of snow. Could see a quick inch of snow on Friday evening,
primarily along and south of the mn river valley to the iowa
border.

Cooler temps return for the weekend, with sub-freezing highs and
lows from the upper single digits to mid teens. Temperatures look
to moderate back up into the mid upper 30s and 40s for highs by
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as weak ridging aloft develops
locally between a pacific northwest trough to the west, and a
low to the northeast over quebec. This pattern will keep us
removed from any major precipitation-generating systems through
the middle of next week. There is discrepancy between the ecmwf
and GFS regarding how the large scale pattern will evolve late
next week, however. The 14.00z ECMWF and canadian models progged
a fairly impactful system to affect the region by Friday, whereas
the GFS was slower given its delayed eastward ejection of the
previously mentioned northwest system. Either way, the pattern
looks to become more active around the 24th of november.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 510 am cst Wed nov 14 2018
no aviation concerns with south southeast winds increasing during
the day, with gusts above 20 kts in minnesota by the mid late
afternoon. There is a potential of llws this evening across
minnesota, but not enough to warrant in the current taf.

Kmsp...

no additional concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
thu late... MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10 kts.

Fri... MVFR CIGS early. Chc -sn. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Sat... MVFR possible. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Jlt
long term... Ls
aviation... Jlt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi30 minno data8.00 miFair30°F21°F69%1030 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN16 mi30 minSE 710.00 miFair28°F19°F69%1030.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN20 mi30 minSSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds26°F18°F71%1030.9 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN21 mi28 minSSE 610.00 miFair28°F20°F73%1028.1 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN24 mi28 minSSE 710.00 miFair26°F17°F70%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4NW6W5W4--3S3S3SE3SE5SE3SE4E3E3E3E4E5E4E4E5E5E6SE7--
1 day agoNW10
G17
NW11NW13
G21
NW12
G18
NW10NW13NW11NW9NW8N10NW9NW8NW7NW7NW3NW5NW4W4W5SW3W3CalmNW6NW8
2 days agoW13
G19
W10
G19
NW14
G22
NW13
G22
W11NW10NW11W11W8
G17
NW11NW10NW8NW10
G20
NW12NW9NW5W5W5NW7NW9NW15
G22
NW14
G23
NW12NW12
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.