Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tonka Bay, MN

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Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:14PM Sunday August 19, 2018 8:26 PM CDT (01:26 UTC) Moonrise 2:34PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tonka Bay, MN
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location: 44.92, -93.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 192352 aaa
afdmpx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
652 pm cdt Sun aug 19 2018

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 320 pm cdt Sun aug 19 2018
main concern is convective trends overnight into Monday.

Main corridor of instability remains off to the west and this trend
should continue through the evening. We will continue the
categorical pop trend for that region with chance pops into central
portions through midnight. The far east will remain dry through the
night. Expect forcing with northern stream exiting shearing trough
will slide off to the northeast overnight and should weaken. Forcing
will then be redirected farther south late tonight into Monday as the
upper circulation moves east southeast over northern missouri and
southern iowa. Expect deeper convection developing this region
overnight and will likely steal some of the better moisture and
impede better influx into eastern mn. Still believe we will some
some convection develop and lift over mainly the southern third of mn
into Monday with east central mn really on the cutoff of any
significant moisture. Could see some heavier QPF into portions of
west central mn into the evening as the upper trough slides off to
the northeast taking the better deformation with it. Heavier rains
will develop mainly south of mn into Monday. Thicker cloud cover and
rain chances should limit temperatures Monday, with 70s common over
the area.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 320 pm cdt Sun aug 19 2018
for the long term period, quasi-zonal flow develops aloft. We look
to have a few dry and mild days in the wake of Monday's system until
a decent mid-level shortwave traverses the westerly flow regime on
Thursday night and Friday. Model agreement is quite good regarding
this feature, so have confidence to include likely pops at this
point. There isn't a surface trough that passes with this feature,
so the threat for severe storms looks marginal at best. Next
weekend, however, models do prog a surface trough to nose into the
region attendant with some shortwave energy upstairs. There are more
notable differences between the GFS and ecmwf, however, so lower
confidence exists regarding temporal and spatial details. Therefore
we only included low pops at this point.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 652 pm cdt Sun aug 19 2018
not expecting too much eastward progress in the showers and
thunderstorms tonight from western mn. This activity will weaken
to showers as it finally advances eastward across eastern mn and
western wi Monday. CIGS will beVFR tonight, but will likely
become MVFR Monday.

Kmsp... A few stray showers are possible tonight, but the best
chance for any rain will wait until Monday morning. CIGS will
deteriorate during that time as well.

Outlook for kmsp
tue... MVFR possible early, thenVFR. Wind nnw at 10g15 kts.

Wed...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts.

Thu...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Dwe
long term... Ls
aviation... Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi33 minE 59.00 miFair80°F66°F62%1011.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN16 mi33 minESE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F64°F60%1011.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN20 mi33 minSE 99.00 miOvercast81°F66°F62%1011.8 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN21 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair76°F67°F74%1012.5 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN24 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair80°F64°F60%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE6SE3SE7SE6SE4SE4S5S6SE6SE4SE4CalmS4S6SW3S5S6SE7S7SE9SE10SE10E5
1 day agoN4N3N3N4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3CalmSE3433S44SW7S3SW5SW4SE4
2 days agoN5N4N3N5N3N6N6N7N5N5N3N5N55N7N6NW6NW6NW7NW5N7N6N5NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.