Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Park, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday August 18, 2018 11:32 AM CDT (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:34PMMoonset 11:35PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Park, MN
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.92, -93.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmpx 181129
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
629 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018

Updated for 12z aviation discussion
Issued at 624 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 332 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
only changes to the forecast were to increase sky cover from the
smoke aloft, and also bring in pops slightly quicker across western
minnesota for Sunday morning. Otherwise expect dry weather with
filtered sunshine and highs in the 80s today, with lows in the 60s
tonight.

Satellite imagery with surface obs showed another quiet night across
the region with areas of fog in the low-lying areas and river
valleys. This should burn off quickly once again after sunrise, and
expect another hazy day with filtered sunshine from the smoke aloft.

Afternoon highs should be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday.

Later tonight an upper level wave that is currently located over the
idaho panhandle will slide southeast along the missouri river
valley. This wave, together with a northern stream shortwave, will
create a surface pressure trough across the dakotas which will
result in a weak area of low level convergence across the far
western part of minnesota. The weak forcing should lead to overcast
skies and by early Sunday morning a few elevated air parcels will
reach the LFC and convect into showers and thunderstorms. The main
threat with these storms is heavy rain. The shear and CAPE profiles
are both relatively weak. Given the recent dry weather in this part
of the state, there is minimal concern for flooding with this
system.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 332 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
the forecast remains on track for precipitation chances Sunday
into Monday, as a potent shortwave spins up a surface low over the
central plains and tracks it northeast into the great lakes.

Models remain in pretty good agreement with the evolution of this
system, with a band of showers and thunderstorms developing across
the dakotas into western minnesota during the day on Sunday and
more widespread rain developing Sunday night into Monday north of
the deepening surface low. The forecast track of the low continues
to be over northern missouri which would place the heaviest rain
to the south of our area, with minima in rainfall amounts
potentially setting up over eastern minnesota into west-central
wisconsin between the frontogenetically-forced precip to the west
and the the surface low to the south. The 00z GFS came in much
wetter compared to previous runs but it was the high outlier
compared to the rest of the GEFS ensemble members, so favored the
euro and GEFS mean for precip totals. Still expecting rainfall
totals around 1 inch for the event across western minnesota and
southern minnesota, with lower amounts between 0.25-0.5 inches
over central minnesota into western wisconsin. Can't rule out
localized areas seeing higher amounts of 2" or more in
thunderstorms given forecast pw values around 2 sd above the
mean, but given how dry its been so far in august any flash flood
potential should be mitigated.

Cooler weather returns behind the system on Monday and continues
into Thursday under northwest flow aloft. High pressure midweek will
lead to a couple of pleasant sunny days with temperatures a few
degrees below normal. The next chance at precip comes late Thursday
into the weekend as a shortwave skirts the us-canada border. Still
some uncertainties on the track and timing of the surface feature
but chances look good for at least some precipitation as we head
into the weekend. Strong return flow ahead of this feature will
allow for plenty of moisture to stream back into the area and for
instability to build, with sufficient deep layer shear creating a
potential for organized storms should timing bring the best forcing
in during the afternoon evening hours.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 624 am cdt Sat aug 18 2018
mainlyVFR conditions, but the early morning ifr lifr patchy fog
will persist past 12z this morning, and could redevelop again
Sunday morning. Winds will be light throughout.

Kmsp...

early morning fog could impact kmsp, but at this point it appears
the lowest visbys stay away from the twin cities metro. Today will
beVFR with light winds, with another chance of fog early Sunday
morning.

Outlook for kmsp
sun...VFR with -tsra MVFR possible late. Wind S 10 kts.

Mon... MVFR possible with -shra tsra, ifr possible. Wind N 5-10
kts.

Tue...VFR. Wind NW at 10g15 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Jrb
long term... Eta
aviation... Jrb


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN10 mi40 minVar 48.00 miFair77°F64°F64%1018.1 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN17 mi40 minN 09.00 miFair77°F64°F66%1017.8 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN20 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair73°F65°F79%1019.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN21 mi40 minS 38.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F64°F64%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrN6NW6NW6NW7NW5N7N6N5NW3N4N3N3N4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E3CalmSE34
1 day agoE5NW6W6SW10
G18
SW6S5S7SW8SW3N5N4N3N5N3N6N6N7N5N5N3N5N55N7
2 days agoNW45566NW855N5NW5N5N5N5NE4NE6NE4N4N6N5N4N3NE6NE7NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.