Monday, February18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Park, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:46PM Sunday February 17, 2019 11:07 PM CST (05:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 5:54AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Park, MN
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location: 44.92, -93.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 172357 aaa
afdmpx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
557 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019

Update
Issued at 557 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
will be canceling the winter weather advisory shortly. The snow
has largely tapered off with only a few flurries expected here and
there for the next few hours before ending.

Short term (this evening through Monday night)
issued at 135 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
light snow event to the north of an h5 low down over ia will slowly
wind down through the afternoon as that low slowly gets sheared out
and absorbed into the main flow associated with the 150-180 kt upper
jet from the tx panhandle to western new york. Snow reports have
been somewhat underwhelming when compared to what was forecast and
the culprit has been the snow ratios. Weak lift in the dendritic
growth zone has resulted in more a thin needles and plates type of
crystals, which has resulted in snow ratios down closer to 10:1 as
opposed to up in the 18-20:1 range. Biggest nearby snow report we've
seen so far was from austin with 4.3", which is about 1-1.5"
lower than we were forecasting. Another example of the next nut we
have yet to crack when it comes to forecasting snowfall is
determining crystal types that will be generated and the resultant
snow ratio.

Not much happening the rest of the short term as we have a 1040mb
high incoming. The main question tonight through Monday night is
what will the extent of cloud cover be. We look to mostly clear out
the mid-level clouds Monday Monday night, but the question is how
much, if any status do we see. Forecast soundings are fairly robust
with their low level moisture and stratus potential, but think this
is a bit overdone and we'll see partly cloudy skies on the whole
Monday Monday night. With the lower cloud cover in mind, did lower
forecast lows a few degrees from the previous forecast for Monday
night, though there's potential for them to be several degrees lower
depending on what we see for cloud cover.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 135 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
the anomalous longwave trough will remain over the western conus
with anomalous ridging over the southeast CONUS through this
period. So, the active weather pattern will continue with mostly
below normal temperatures
the threat for accumulating snow continues for Tuesday night and
Wednesday. This system is somewhat similar to today's on-going
system with a mid-level closed low forming and aided lift from an
inverted surface trough behind a surface low. With the jet becoming
more meridionally-oriented, the mid-week system will have a more
northerly track than today's system. This will bring more forcing
over mn wi, and better potential for more widespread 3-6 inches of
snowfall. There are still differences in the exact location of
this system with the 17.12 GFS continuing to show the deepening
surface low crossing through the ia wi il border at 18z Wednesday
and the heaviest snowfall totals over ia. The 17.00 ECMWF showed
the deepening low trekking through southern mn and thus, bringing
higher snowfall amounts farther northward. The 17.12 ECMWF is in
slightly better agreement with the GFS as it brings the surface
low through the mn ia wi border. However, the ECMWF solution would
still bring higher snowfall amounts to southern mn.

A ~1026 surface high and upper-level ridging will follow the mid-
week system, allowing for dry conditions on Thursday. The western
conus trough will begin to deepen and shift eastward late
Thursday and Friday. Recent model trends indicate that split flow
will occur once the trough exits the rockies. The 17.00 ecmwf
developed a surface low over the oklahoma panhandle that continued
to deepen as it lifted toward il with a closed mid-level low over
the central plains. That would bring widespread accumulating
snowfall into southern mn and central wi. However, the 17.12 ecmwf
is more in-line with the GFS by not phasing the energy from the
northern and southern streams. Both develop a surface low further
to the south of the 17.00 ECMWF and only bring a shortwave trough
to the northern plains. This would still provide an opportunity
for accumulating snow on Saturday, but lesser amounts. Overall,
model consensus indicates that there is near a 50% chance for over
0.25 inch liquid equivalent of snow between Friday night and
Sunday morning.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 557 pm cst Sun feb 17 2019
as the snow ends, conditions are becomingVFR. Expecting mid level
clouds to continue through much of the period, but there is a low
potential for lower clouds to develop Monday. For now, kept things
as a scattered mention in the lower levels.

Kmsp... The snow is over andVFR conditions will persist into
Monday. Winds will veer more northwesterly by Monday afternoon.

Outlook for kmsp
tue... MainlyVFR. Wind SW 5 kts becoming se.

Wed... Ifr with sn. Wind E 5 kts.

Thu... MVFR cigs. Wind wsw 5 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Borghoff
short term... Mpg
long term... Amk
aviation... Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN10 mi74 minNNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy18°F8°F65%1022.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN17 mi74 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds15°F6°F67%1023.4 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN20 mi72 minno data10.00 miFair13°F6°F75%1022.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN21 mi74 minNNE 1010.00 miOvercast18°F10°F71%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6NE6E7NE7E7NE8NE7NE10NE9NE12
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1 day agoSW9N4CalmN3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3SE4E6SE4E7E7E6E5E7E9E6NE5
2 days agoNW11NW11
G18
W7NW9W10NW10NW10N5NW6NW8NW9W7W7SW10W8W7NW5NW8NW6W4W4W5W5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.