Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spring Park, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:47PM Friday May 24, 2019 1:02 PM CDT (18:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:11AMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spring Park, MN
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location: 44.92, -93.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 241734
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1234 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019

Update For 00z aviation discussion below

Short term (today through Saturday)
issued at 333 am cdt Fri may 24 2019
warm advective band of precip moving through this morning is split
into two primary parts. One associated with the LLJ and the other
the main upper forcing with the shortwave tracking across the
dakotas. The nose of the LLJ has made it into northern ia tonight,
but it will slide east into southern wi through the morning. There's
pretty strong model consensus we'll see around an inch of precip
down along i-90, but it falls off pretty quick north of there, with
a relative minima in precipitation amounts expects from southwest mn
through northwest wi as these areas fall between the better forcing
to the northwest and better moisture transport to the southeast.

Today, showers will continue to lift northeast with a warm front,
with clearing skies working in from west to east across southern mn
this afternoon. How quickly this clearing moves across the area will
largely determine how warm it gets. Out in the upper mn valley, mid
70s should be no problem to achieve as the clearing arrives there
first. On the other end of the spectrum, areas around ladysmith wi
will likely remain in the lower 60s under cloudy skies. In between,
highs could be a few degrees warm or colder than currently
forecast depending on cloud trends.

Tonight, we'll have a dry feed of air to the south of a surface low
going across northern mn, which will clear out the skies. This trend
of dry air and clear skies will carry us into Saturday, which will
be our reward for enduring the last 10 days of cool, cloudy and
rainy weather. We should have no problem reaching the low to mid 70s
on Saturday, with an 80 not out of the question out by eau claire.

The one cooler area though will be out toward alexandria as they'll
be under the influence of an h85 thermal trough centered over
northwest mn, with h85 temps progged to be only around 4c, which
will hold highs out that direction back in the 60s.

Long term (Saturday night through Thursday)
issued at 333 am cdt Fri may 24 2019
warm and pleasant weather continues during the day on Sunday over
the region begins to move off to the east. Highs will again warm
into the mid 70s for most locations under sunny skies, with cloud
cover increasing Sunday evening ahead of the next system. While
Saturday Sunday look dry and pleasant, a more active pattern
develops for Monday and continues into mid-week.

Two shortwaves approach the area Sunday night into Monday, the
stronger wave associated with the northern stream jet and upper
trough over hudson bay while a weaker impulses ejects ahead of a
digging trough over the western us. A broad trough of low pressure
at the surface across the central plains will deepen into a more
organized low pressure center Monday afternoon as the western
trough comes off of the rockies. Isentropic ascent ahead of a warm
front to the east of this developing low along with plenty of
ascent aloft looks to generate a broad shield of precipitation
over the northern plains Sunday night, which is expected to move
into minnesota wisconsin during the overnight hours and continue
through Monday. Memorial day looks like it could be quite soggy
with forecast rainfall amounts ranging from 1-2" across the area
and the heaviest amounts expected across southern minnesota. The
greatest thunderstorm potential and possibly even severe threat
will depend on where the warm front and highest instability sets
up, this currently appears to be further south into iowa but could
shift as we get closer to Monday.

The warm front will oscillate just south of the area as the low pressure
center approaches from the plains, with additional shower and
thunderstorm chances expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Again the
best thunderstorm chances and heavy rain potential will depend on
where the warm front sets up. Pw values look a little lower
compared to Monday which should keep additional precipitation
amounts to around an inch. Precipitation chances should diminish
Wednesday afternoon evening as the low moves east of the area.

Cooler conditions are expected for the end of the week into the
weekend as an anomalously deep trough sets up over the eastern
half of the us. Still disagreement in the models regarding the
depth of the upper level low and extent of the cold air, so will
keep temperatures close to the model consensus for now. Overall
the latter half of the week looks to be drier than the first, with
another shot at precipitation looking possible over the weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1235 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019
the primary change to the tafs was to prolong the ifr ceilings
several hours longer. Given ceiling trends and hi-res model
guidance, improvement toVFR conditions with clearing from west to
east does not look to arrive until between 21z and 00z for most
sites. During that time, scattered light showers and minor visibility
reductions due to br will occur as well. For keau, our farthest
eastern site, improvement toVFR will likely be delayed until the
overnight hours.

On Saturday, northern-most sites (kaxn and kstc) will be subject
to ceiling reductions back down to MVFR as clouds over northern mn
pivot south. Gusty southeast winds will lose gusts this eve and
veer to the west northwest for Saturday. Gusts to 20 knots look to
redevelop by Saturday afternoon.

Kmsp...

ceilings around 1000 feet look to linger through the afternoon
hours. Scattered (light) showers and drizzle will be possible,
primarily until 21z. Notable improvement (toVFR) is expected this
evening, withVFR then after through the remainder of the period.

Outlook for kmsp
sun...VFR. Wind ese 5kts.

Mon... MVFR shra. Chc ifr -tsra. Wind ese 10g20 kts.

Tue... MVFR shra. Chc ifr -tsra. Wind N 10-15kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Mpg
long term... Eta
aviation... Ls


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN10 mi69 minSE 1310.00 miOvercast57°F53°F87%1010.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN17 mi69 minSE 9 G 1710.00 miOvercast56°F54°F93%1011.2 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN20 mi67 minno data7.00 miOvercast55°F51°F88%1011.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN21 mi69 minSE 1210.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11
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W7SW8W8W7W6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6SE5SE5E6SE10E8SE13E13
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1 day agoS19
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2 days agoE15
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E16SE9S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.