Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Minneapolis, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:44PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 4:30 AM CDT (09:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minneapolis, MN
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location: 44.95, -93.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 220854
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
354 am cdt Wed may 22 2019

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 354 am cdt Wed may 22 2019
the main short term concern is overall trend of showers today into
the evening. Thunder threat remains mainly to the east into the
afternoon, but some threat of thunder mainly south central into the
morning.

Water vapor imagery showing rain band deeper moisture is lifting
north this morning. Upper low positioned over northeast nebraska
should continue it trek north today. Band of moisture showers and
isolated thunder is lifting out ahead of the upper trough axis. This
will move into southern and central mn this morning. Will have to
continue higher end pops at least through mid morning into the south
before this pivots more north northwest. The occluded surface low
lifts north into west central mn this afternoon and a weak triple
point instability axis rotates northeast over western mn late
morning afternoon. Could see some scattered thunder develop as the
system exits to the northeast into the evening. The strong easterly
wind of last night should gradually shift more south southwest into
the afternoon. Looks to be gusty as well, especially over the
southern areas with gusts to 30kts possible once again.

May see some sunshine into west central wi during the afternoon and
could generate better instability. Looks like the window for any
stronger storms would be pretty narrow, perhaps 18z-21z. Cloud
cover should remain over the western area today and will limit
heating potential. The GFS and hrrr have been trying to develop
thunder into west central mn during the afternoon with limited
cape with mucapes generally less than 200 j kg. Did trim
temperatures a degree or two, especially west with clouds and
showers.

The system exits the area tonight. Clouds may linger and move east
into the night leaving mostly cloudy conditions for a time into
Thursday. We will warm it into the lower and mid 60s for the most
part, but could be a bit warmer if we see more sun.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
issued at 354 am cdt Wed may 22 2019
looking at the large scale perspective, not much is expected to
change with ridging dominating the southeast CONUS and troughing
over the rockies out into the plains. This may finally start to
break down and shift the middle of next week, but that's the
earliest we'll see any significant changes to to the general flow
pattern. The good news in all of this, is it looks like we'll time
one of the longer dry periods we've seen in a while with the
memorial day weekend.

Thursday, the next strong shortwave coming out of the western trough
will be heading out on to the plains. A strengthening LLJ associated
with this wave will be heading our direction Thursday night, with a
band of showers and thunderstorms expected to be spread out across
the mpx area Friday morning. This will be a better than 50 kt llj,
with strong moisture convergence at the noose of it. All the models
are showing an enhanced area of QPF (1-2") on the nose of the jet,
but differ on where it goes. The nam GFS canadian GEFS have the
nose of the LLJ angling up to or just south of la crosse, the ecmwf
angles it more toward mankato. At this point, we stayed with the
nbm qpf, which is more in line with the non ECMWF cluster.

From the severe weather perspective, there may have been some
potential with this storm system, but its timing is not ideal, with
the warm occluded front moving through late Thursday night into
Friday morning. There's potential for some elevated hail producers
Thursday night, but other than that, by Friday afternoon, the severe
threat area will be off to our southeast as seen with SREF sigtor
ingredients probabilities and SPC day 3 outlook.

For the holiday weekend, Saturday will have convergent flow aloft in
the wake of Friday's system. This will promote subsidence, a
surface high and pleasant conditions. Sunday, models continue to
show a weak cold front dropping across the area. The upper wave
driving this front will dive southeast across southern canada, while
the deep moisture will be down across the central plains into the
mid mississippi valley, so it's unlikely we'll see anything with
this Sunday into Sunday night. The main impact we'll see with this
front is it knock highs Saturday and Sunday near 70 back down into
the lower 60s for memorial day.

Models continue to show the front that will be to our south over the
weekend lifting back north as a warm front Monday night. The warm
front again looks to stay south of mn, but it will get far enough
north to spread rain and thunder back into southern mn Monday night
into Tuesday morning.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1107 pm cdt Tue may 21 2019
the broad area of steady and a little heavier rain continues to
shift north and east, in concert with the deepest layer moisture.

More rain continues to develop into southwest mn in pinwheeling
fashion ahead of the upper low. Some of this development will also
move into southeast mn and western wi, but not as much. Even so,
ceilings will be lowering to MVFR and ifr over most areas and will
stay that way into Wednesday midday. In fact, the low clouds may
lift a bit but remain as MVFR in central mn through the afternoon
Wednesday.

East winds will diminish only slightly tonight, and finally turn
southeast, then eventually southwest later Wednesday as the low
moves northward.

Kmsp...

patchy areas of rain will develop through the rest of the night,
leading to occasions of MVFR coverage interspersed withVFR. That
should evolve into all MVFR later tonight and stay that way into
the afternoon on Wednesday. East winds will lessen a little bit,
but will still be gusting over 20 knots into late morning.

Outlook for kmsp
thu... MVFR cigs. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Fri... Chc MVFR. Winds SE becoming SW at 15g30 kts.

Sat...VFR with MVFR possible early. Wind wnw at 10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Dwe
long term... Mpg
aviation... Tdk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi37 minE 136.00 miFog/Mist48°F46°F93%1002.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN10 mi37 minE 11 G 204.00 miFog/Mist48°F46°F96%1002.4 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN11 mi35 minESE 7 G 145.00 miFog/Mist49°F47°F95%1003 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN12 mi37 minE 20 G 286.00 miFog/Mist and Breezy49°F46°F90%1001.5 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN13 mi37 minESE 9 G 205.00 miFog/Mist48°F45°F89%1003.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN15 mi34 minESE 11 G 223.00 miLight Rain48°F48°F100%1003 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN22 mi55 minESE 137.00 miOvercast48°F48°F100%1002 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN24 mi55 minESE 13 G 1910.00 mi48°F44°F87%1004.4 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E6E7E6E10SE13
G19
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G24
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G33
E16
G26
SE24
G31
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G26
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1 day agoCalmSW3CalmN6N65NE7CalmN8
G17
NE11
G21
E10
G15
4E5SE7E5E6SE5E6E6E5E3E4NE6E4
2 days agoNE10
G21
NE10
G17
NE12
G19
N11N11
G18
N12
G19
N12N12
G29
N18
G27
N12
G29
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G26
N16
G33
N13
G21
N14N13
G19
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G22
N15
G22
N14
G23
N10CalmCalmNW7NW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.