Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Louis Park, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 5:10PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 3:45 PM CST (21:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:31PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Louis Park, MN
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location: 44.95, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 231804
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1204 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019

Short term (today through Thursday)
issued at 343 am cst Wed jan 23 2019
confidence increasing in blizzard conditions tonight and Thursday
morning in western minnesota. There is still some uncertainty in
the wind speed and snowpack across southern minnesota, so
continued with a winter storm watch for that area. The most
vulnerable area would be along i-90 where the heavy snow fell last
week. Areas in western, central, and southern minnesota can
expect wind gusts near 40 to 45 mph, with blowing snow and very
low visibility in open areas.

The main challenge was predicting how strong the winds would be with
this arctic front that will move through later tonight. A 1040mb
high will build behind this frontal boundary which will result in a
tight surface pressure gradients cross the region. Meanwhile strong
cold air advection will destabilize the boundary layer which will
also contribute to strong winds.

Forecast soundings off the GFS nam rap all show 40 kts atop the
channel, which is slightly stronger than the last few model runs.

This should produce observed wind gusts of close to 40 or 45 mph
starting later tonight in western minnesota. The winds will
gradually diminish throughout the day on Thursday. Canby mn has 10
inches of snow, and about 6 of that is fairly fresh with a high snow
to liquid ratio. Willmar also picked up 2.4 inches of snow yesterday
with a 40:1 ratio. This light snow should easily blow around in the
winds that are forecast, so had the confidence to issue a blizzard
warning for western minnesota. Southern minnesota has slightly
weaker winds, and the snow has been worked over a little bit by the
winds the last couple of days. However temperatures have been below
freezing this entire time, and do not expect the light freezing
drizzle from yesterday to hold back the blowing snow if winds end up
gusting to near 45 mph. Decided to keep the winter storm watch going
for that area in order to capture a few more runs of the rap
forecast soundings. On Thursday expect falling temperatures with
winds gradually decreasing during the afternoon.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday)
issued at 343 am cst Wed jan 23 2019
the primary concerns in the long term are wind chills and snow
chances as a clipper-like system dips into the central CONUS and
we endure several intrusions of arctic air.

Thursday night winds winds subside and allow blowing snow concerns
to diminish, although then the concern shifts to wind chills as
temperatures drop to between 10 and 20 below. We will quite
possibly need a wind chill advisory across most if not all of the
area on Thursday night and Friday morning. Friday highs will
struggle to warm any higher than a few degrees above the zero
degree mark, and a cold weekend is in store as broad surface high
pressure dominates the region. Expect highs generally 10 to 15
degrees below normal for late january.

By Sunday afternoon precipitation chances become quite likely,
with deterministic model agreement pretty good for day 4-5
standards. Have included 70-80 pops on Sunday afternoon night.

Behind this system we get another reinforcing shot of arctic air,
with lows well into the teens below zero and highs struggling to
eclipse the zero degree mark through the start of next week.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1204 pm cst Wed jan 23 2019
fog and stratus from this morning in western mn is burning off
and it looks like it will not impact any mpx terminals this
afternoon. Main issues this TAF period revolves around the
powerful arctic front coming in this evening. There may be a brief
snow shower with it, especially in eastern mn and western wi, but
moisture is lacking and it does not look like we will see much,
if any snow out of this. Very strong winds are expected,
especially for the 4 hours or so after fropa, where gusts of 40-45
kts will be possible at axn rwf mkt. This will lead to some
blowing snow issues as well, but with no falling snow, we'll
likely see limited vsby restrictions up at the ASOS vis sensor
level. Once we work the post frontal stratocu field thru early thu
morning, should be sunny and windy the rest of the day.

Kmsp... Do not anticipate any low clouds at msp until we go post
frontal, which will not be until close to 6z. Some flurry -sn
potential between 8z and 12z is possible, but expect nothing worse
than maybe a 15 minute burst where vis could get down to 2sm.

Expect skies to clear out Thu morning some time between 10z and
16z.

Outlook for kmsp
fri...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.

Sat...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts
sun... MVFR ifr with sn late. Ese at 10g20 kts

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Blizzard warning from 9 pm this evening to noon cst Thursday for
mnz041-047-048-054>056-064.

Winter storm watch from late tonight through Thursday morning
for mnz057-065-067-073>077-082>085-091>093.

Short term... Jrb
long term... Ls
aviation... Mpg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN9 mi1.9 hrsWSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds23°F12°F65%1011.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN9 mi1.9 hrsW 710.00 miA Few Clouds22°F12°F66%1011.4 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi1.9 hrsWSW 610.00 miFair21°F12°F68%1011.6 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN14 mi70 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy24°F13°F64%1010.2 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN17 mi55 minW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy21°F12°F68%1009.5 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN18 mi1.9 hrsWSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy24°F12°F62%1011.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi69 minWSW 410.00 miFair23°F15°F74%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N7NW7N5NW4NW4NW3NW5NW6NW7NW5SW3CalmNW6NW5NW6CalmCalm3CalmW5W7W5W6
1 day agoSE14E14
G19
E12E16
G23
SE19
G27
SE17
G25
SE12SE14
G21
SE16SE14SE10E7E6E7E8E6SE6E5E4CalmCalmCalmNW5NW7
2 days agoCalmE4E4CalmSW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE5SE6SE7SE10SE11SE10SE10SE14SE16SE15SE14SE14SE20
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.