Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:40 AM   Moonset 4:39 PM

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FXUS63 KMPX 050754 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 254 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunny today and increasing clouds on Monday.

- Winds increasing on Monday with gusts up into the 40 to 45 mph range, especially in western Minnesota.

- A wet period returns Monday night and could continue for much of the week ahead.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Today...Clear skies with high pressure dominating today. This morning the clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s. With the high pressure over us there will be little pressure gradient and light winds this morning. Together these factor will create an ideal situation for fog and mist to form.
However ground temperatures may be high enough to prevent large enough drops in temperatures for widespread fog to form.
Overall it appears more like that patchy fog will form in areas where dew points are higher. Overall, today will be a great day to be outside as it will be sunny and in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Monday and Tuesday...By Monday morning the high pressure will be more so over the central Great Lakes and our next rain system will be moving east of the Rockies. As the low associated with this system deepens on the lee of the Rockies the pressure gradient will increase. This increasing pressure gradient combined with warm air advection, promoting mixing, will increase wind speeds. Gusts on Monday could reach into the 40 to 45 mph range, especially in western Minnesota. With continued sunny skies to start the day and warm air advection Monday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the 70s.
Thankfully this is also coming in with moisture advection to help prevent a fire weather risk. There should be enough warming through the atmosphere to create some instability and allow for thunderstorms to form. The timing through for the forcing is not ideal for thunderstorms. This is because the main forcing likely comes through Monday night into Tuesday morning, so unless a MCS can form over the Dakotas the chance for thunderstorms maintaining into Minnesota is not high right now.
There is however high agreement in the ENS, GEFS, and GEPS in PoP during this period of Monday night into Tuesday morning.
What still has a lot of spread are QPF amounts. Overall good agreement to at least see a repeat of the kind of rain we got on Saturday morning with totals more so around a quarter inch.
Means and medians are more so around a half inch with the higher end clustering more around 1 inch. Temepratures on Tuesday should rise up to around 70 as we remain in the warm sector of this large system. Rain chances during the day on Tuesday will generally be low as the primary frontal passage should happen in the morning. Depending on timing though the rain could persist into the afternoon in parts of western Wisconsin.

Wednesday through Saturday... Although the best chance for rain will be Monday night into Tuesday morning the upper low associated with this will remain over us until the end of the week. It is not until around late Friday into Saturday that high pressure moves back in. Still fairly dispersive Wednesday through Friday with as many solutions as there are ensemble members. There is however a trend common among all of them, more rain. It is just the timing of when during this period and how much that varies. This is why we have a persistent 30 to 50 percent PoP over this period. As for temperatures Wednesday still looks to stay mostly in the warm sector, but Thursday and Friday will be on the cooler side with temperatures back down into the 60s. Overall this continues to look like a good forecast to continue our drought recovery, but if you are looking for a prolonged dry period you will have to wait. CPC outlooks do suggest a trend toward drier conditions for the following week however.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Clear skies and light winds could allow patchy fog to develop overnight. MVFR visibilities are most likely, but thicker patches near EAU could fall to IFR. Winds become southerly Sunday.

KMSP...Patchy fog is looking less likely overnight given current temp and humidity, so removed it from the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind SE 20G35kts.
TUE...VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 15G25Kts.
WED...VFR. Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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