Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Louis Park, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:24PM Thursday October 18, 2018 2:45 PM CDT (19:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 12:04AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Louis Park, MN
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location: 44.95, -93.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 181742
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1242 pm cdt Thu oct 18 2018

Updated for 18z TAF discussion below
Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 439 am cdt Thu oct 18 2018
clear skies have allowed for efficient radiative cooling with
temperatures cooling into the upper 20s to lower 30s this morning.

Despite the cool start, today will be the first day to have above
normal high temperatures since october 3rd.

Soundings indicate a stout warm nose this morning, especially over
western mn where just about 900 feet off the surface, temperatures
are in the 50s. With continued warm air advection through the late
morning, 925 mb will range from 16 c (61 f) in far western mn to to
9c (48 f) in central wi this afternoon. Sunny skies should allow for
strong mixing, but there is medium confidence on exactly how high
the boundary layer will mix to. Most model guidance indicates mixing
to near 925 mb over western mn and more shallow mixing to about 950-
935 mb over central mn and wi. The forecast MAX temperatures account
for the more shallow mixing but are still above guidance. This was
done by blending in the mix down 925 mb temperatures with the
previous MAX temperature forecast. If the CWA does indeed mix to 925
mb, then widespread 70s would be likely over western and central mn.

It will be a another breezy day with increased pressure gradient
ahead of a shortwave trough. Widespread wind gusts near 20-25 mph
are likely during the late morning and afternoon. The wind gusts
will subside with the decoupling boundary layer before increasing
again during the mid morning on Friday with a strengthening low
level jet. Moisture advection will allow for an increase in cloud
cover and chance for light rain as the shortwave trough approaches
from the dakotas Friday morning.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 439 am cdt Thu oct 18 2018
a cold front will be passing through during the day Friday. Gusty
southwest flow in advance of the front will become gusty northwest
behind it with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible. It will still be a
mild day, but not as warm as today. Earlier CAA aloft should
limit warming potential even as the surface front lags some. Still
expecting highs in the low to maybe some mid 60s across the south
and east.

A very potent vort will descend southward from central canada to
the great lakes upper midwest late Friday night and Saturday
morning. There will be a small window with this feature to produce
snow showers Saturday morning before drier air aloft cuts off any
ice crystal production. It may only be a 2 to 3 hour window, but
the snow showers could be impressive given the forcing and
steepening lapse rates. Could see up to an inch over western wi.

The steepening low level lapse rates will also lead to enhanced
wind gusts with the top of the channel nearly 40 kts.

Ridging will build in rapidly Saturday afternoon, which should
help to scatter out the clouds and ease the wind by evening.

The rest of the long term period will be quiet with periodic cold
fronts and surface ridges. Temperatures will average closer to
normal.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1245 pm cdt Thu oct 18 2018
gusty SW winds ahead of next system expected into the evening.

Band of rain associated with next upper trough should spread mid
clouds across the southeast portion of the area mainly 06z-12z.

Will see some llws ws020 22045kt develop mainly 02z-11z. May see
ceilings drop to MVFR in the krnh-keau area late and continue into
Friday morning. Winds picking up ahead of first cold front which
should drop through much of mn area through 18z Friday. Gusty nw
winds 25-30 kts possible behind this front.

Kmsp... Southwest winds are expected to gust around 20 kts this
afternoon. Llws ws020 23045kt will be a concern after sunset.

Period of -ra possible mainly 07z-10z but expect ceilings to
remainVFR. Winds will becoming NW through 17z and gusty to
25-30kts possible in the afternoon.

Outlook for kmsp
fri night...VFR with MVFR and -ra possible. Wind SW becoming nw
15-20kt late.

Sat...VFR with MVFR -shsn possible early. Wind NW 10-15g25-30kts
sun...VFR. Wind SW 5-10g20kt
mon...VFR. Wind SW becoming NW 5-10 kt.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Amk
long term... Borghoff
aviation... Dwe


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi53 minSSW 1110.00 miFair65°F39°F40%1023.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN9 mi53 minS 1010.00 miFair64°F39°F41%1022.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN9 mi53 minSSW 710.00 miFair65°F39°F40%1023.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN14 mi51 minS 910.00 miFair66°F38°F36%1022.7 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN17 mi61 minSSW 810.00 miClear64°F39°F40%1022.7 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN18 mi53 minS 1010.00 miFair64°F41°F43%1023.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi71 minSSW 810.00 miFair66°F44°F46%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
G18
NW12NW9NW6NW3W3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6CalmSE4CalmSE5SE6SE7SE7S10
G15
SW10
G17
SW11SW8SW7
1 day agoW18
G27
NW16
G27
NW20
G27
NW15
G24
NW15
G22
N14
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NW11NW13
G19
NW12--NW10
G18
N9NW7NW9NW9NW7NW8W4NW11NW12
G22
NW18
G24
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G20
NW11
G21
W11
G21
2 days agoW11W14
G20
SW14
G25
SW10
G18
SW6SW7SW11SW12
G21
SW16
G23
SW12
G22
SW15
G23
SW13
G20
SW10
G22
SW10W8SW9W7SW5W7W6NW13W11
G21
NW17
G25
NW19
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.