Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Woodland, MN

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:17PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 9:47 PM CDT (02:47 UTC) Moonrise 3:49PMMoonset 12:24AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodland, MN
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location: 44.95, -93.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 200025
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
725 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Update
Issued at 722 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 339 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
two significant weather events could be unfolding over the next
24 to 36 hours. The first is related to very heavy rainfall and
the likelihood of flooding overnight across far southern
minnesota. The second is related to an enhanced area of severe
weather across south central southeast minnesota, and west central
wisconsin Thursday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon along an elevated
frontal boundary in southeast south dakota. Elevated instability
in this area is forecast to move across southern minnesota
during the evening, and overnight hours. The low level jet will be
enhanced across iowa tonight, which will lead to strong
convergence along this elevated frontal boundary in far southern
minnesota. Thus, several rounds of very heavy rainfall are likely
where a flash flood watch has been issued earlier today.

Precipitable water values remain extremely high for this time of
year and with a boundary to enhance the focus of convection,
excessive rainfall amounts are likely. I wouldn't be surprised to
see a wide area of 2-4 inches, with locally 4-8 inches in far
southern minnesota by Thursday morning. Wpc has already
highlighted far southern minnesota with a moderate risk of
flooding overnight. People need to exercise the need to stay
abreast of this developing situation and be aware of possible
warnings.

The second event will be determined by where the surface low
tracks Thursday and the amount of instability if more sunshine
develops. First, the latest rap continues to indicate that the
surface low will track from southwest minnesota, northeast into
northwest wisconsin by Thursday evening. This will put south
central and southeast minnesota, as well as portions of east
central minnesota in the warm sector Thursday afternoon. This also
includes west central wisconsin. SPC has already highlighted day
two with an enhanced risk of severe weather in portions of the
southern minnesota and west central wisconsin. Please see the
latest SPC day two outlook for more information. Any deviation to
the surface low track or more less sunshine expected, will reflect
the amount of instability and severe potential. I wouldn't be
surprised to see mid to upper 80s in south central minnesota if
more sunshine develops than forecast. On the cool side of the
frontal boundary, and surface low track, highs on Thursday will be
in the 50s 60s with a cool northeasterly wind.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 339 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
the surface low is expected to deepen as it progresses
northeastward Thursday evening. As mentioned in the short term
discussion, any discrepancies in the track will affect the
forecast. There are differences between the 19.12 gfs, 19.12
ecmwf, and 19.12 NAM in the placement of this system. The NAM has
the surface low located along the wi mn border just east of the
twin cities at 00z. The ECMWF lifts the low to west central wi by
00z, and the GFS lifts it to northwestern wi by 00z. There are
also discrepancies amongst the hi-res models. The hrrr and href
mean both have the main area of convection at the triple point and
along the cold front developing along the mn wi border just east
of the twin cities through south central wi.

At this time, the areas at highest risk for severe weather
Thursday evening will be southeastern mn and west central wi, but
there is still the potential for severe weather across south
central mn and central mn, including the twin cities. Winds aloft
will be conducive to severe weather with 50-60 kts southwesterly
winds at 850 mb expected over southeastern mn and west central wi.

Convection is expected to be of linear mode by 00z. Given the low
lcl values near 500 m, effective bulk wind difference of near 50
kts, and near 30 kts of 0-1 km shear, the risk for embedded
supercells and tornadoes will likely continue through the early
evening hours. The 19.12 hrrre 4 hour neighborhood probability of
a tornado shows 15-21% probability east and south of the twin
cities at 00z Friday. Otherwise, the greatest risk will be wind,
and hail cannot be ruled out. Convection is expected to exit to
the east of the forecast area by 06z Friday.

Cooler and drier air will usher in over the northern great plains
behind the front Friday morning with high pressure and troughing
aloft. High temperatures on Friday look to only reach the mid to
upper 50s and lows on Saturday will range from mid 30s in western
wi to low 40s in western mn. With mostly clear skies, there is
potential for patchy frost in western wi. Southerly low-level flow
looks to begin by late morning on Saturday with weak ridging
aloft, so that will allow for the warmer temperatures in the
western forecast area. A warm front will lift through northern mn
on Sunday, and the precipitation associated with it is expected to
remain over northern mn. Precipitation chances return by early
Monday ahead of the next cold front and upper level trough. The
weather pattern remains progressive with a deep upper-level trough
developing over the great plains on Thursday with unseasonably
cool temperatures for the end of september.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 722 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
difficult forecast over the next 24-30 hours across the area. Low
stratus, likely no higher than ifr and potentially as low as
vlifr, to persist overnight through daybreak tomorrow morning.

There may be some rise into lower-range MVFR tomorrow morning
followed by higher-range MVFR tomorrow afternoon-evening. However,
there looks to be two main periods of precipitation. One will come
late this evening through the early morning hours then a secondary
surge tomorrow afternoon and evening. Each looks to contain
scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with the second surge
potentially developing as a strong-severe organized line of storms
over south-central mn pushing through west-central wi. The timing
and placement of storms will be tricky to pin down, and in turn so
will visibilities, so frequent amendments may be necessary. Winds
will generally remain out of the northeast tonight through the
first half of Thursday then steadily kick around to the SE and sw
late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Kmsp... Best chances for thunderstorms look to come late tonight
through the pre-dawn hours and again late tomorrow afternoon near
the evening push time. Ceilings look to remain below 1700ft
through at least midday tomorrow and potentially throughout the
entire duration of this TAF set, including near minimums overnight
tonight.

Outlook for kmsp
fri... MVFR ceilings early, clearing late toVFR. Wind NW 15g25 kts.

Sat...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... Flash flood watch through Thursday afternoon for mnz073>078-
082>085-091>093.

Update... Jpc
short term... Jlt
long term... Amk
aviation... Jpc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN8 mi55 minNNE 88.00 miOvercast59°F57°F93%1014.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN11 mi55 minN 810.00 miOvercast58°F57°F97%1016.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN16 mi55 minNE 98.00 miOvercast60°F60°F100%1015.5 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN20 mi73 minN 55.00 miFog/Mist60°F60°F100%1016.6 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN21 mi63 minN 710.00 miOvercast59°F59°F100%1016.9 hPa
Buffalo, Buffalo Municipal Airport, MN23 mi53 minNNE 9 G 147.00 miOvercast56°F53°F91%1017.3 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN24 mi55 minENE 59.00 miOvercast59°F57°F96%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from FCM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3N4NE5NE5NE3NE5NE5E5NE6NE4N6N7N9SE5NE9N7NE8NE7N5NE6N8N6N9NE8
1 day agoN5N4N3E4NE5N10CalmSW9SE14
G18
CalmNE5NW8
G16
E8N7
G17
5NE4NE4N7N5NE9NE6NE6NE7NE6
2 days agoS9SW4S5S7SW8S7SW6SW5W5W5NW5N7NE7NE6N8NW7NW25
G47
W11
G16
NE8
G15
NE8NE8S6N5N8

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.