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FXUS63 KMPX 060421 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1121 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong southeasterly winds are expected Monday into Monday evening, particularly in western MN.

- A line of widespread rain with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will move west-to-east across the region Monday evening and overnight.

- Unsettled weather is expected throughout the upcoming week with temperatures in the 60s and 70s.

UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Monday Evening and Overnight...The main change to the forecast was to introduce hourly chances for rainfall Monday evening and overnight. A line showers and thunderstorms will move east, and weaken as it does. The most likely outcome is that all locations will see at least some rainfall, and most locations will pick up near a half to three quarters of an inch of rain, which is why precip chances are near 100 percent.

The risk for severe weather is very low, as the Storm Prediction Center only has a general thunder outlook across the region. Even this thunder risk is on the lower side, as mentioned in the previous discussion, but it is still worth mentioning based on the few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in the forecast soundings. The 850-925mb low level jet wind profile of 50-60 kt is impressive, so the main concern is the potential for stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface with any rain showers or thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

It’s a gorgeous Sunday afternoon across the Upper Midwest with light winds, temperatures in the upper 60s with only some diurnal Cu thanks to a surface high overhead. By this evening, the surface high shifts over the Great Lakes with the 500mb ridge axis over Minnesota and Wisconsin through the first half of the day Monday. With strong WAA in place, tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the period with highs in the low to mid 70s. A strong, negatively tilted trough and its associated surface low will swing into Wyoming and South Dakota during this time, setting the stage for some gusty southeasterly winds for the western half of the forecast area. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the late morning through the evening across western Minnesota. Clouds will increase through the day from west to east as the aforementioned low continues to move northeastward across the Dakotas, but we should make it through the majority of the afternoon without any precip. CAMs depict a line of showers moving from southwest Minnesota to the northeast with the front as the low wraps up over the Dakotas Monday night into early Tuesday. As for thunder chances, while it can’t be ruled out entirely, they are low due to the timing of the best lift along the front. QPF wise, a quick 0.5-0.75” is expected through Tuesday afternoon with higher amounts possible across western and southern Minnesota. Temperatures on Tuesday will still be in the mid 60s to low 70s with clouds gradually clearing late in the afternoon behind the precip.

Heading into Tuesday night, the low and its parent 500mb wave appear to stall out over the western Dakotas. This will allow for continued shower chances throughout the next couple of days.
We will find ourselves in the warm sector of this broad system through Wednesday. By Thursday, the system finally makes some eastward progress as the ridge across the Northeast breaks down.
QPF over these few days will amount to 0.25-0.50” or so, with the highest totals across the southern third of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday will have the highest precip chances. With the cold front finally moving through on Thursday, highs will fall into the low 60s with overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Non-zero chances for showers will continue through the end of the week with temperatures gradually warming into next weekend. Looking ahead, a stretch of drier weather looks increasingly likely with mild temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1116 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions through Monday evening, before showers and thunderstorms move in. The main concern is low level turbulence as southeast winds increase on Monday. A solid line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move across the region Monday evening/night. Confidence is high that TAF sites will see rain, but less for thunder, so did add Prob30 groups to KAXN, KRWF, and KMKT.

KMSP...VFR conditions through Monday evening, before showers and thunderstorms move in. Southeast winds will increase on Monday, with gusts near 30 kts possible. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will approach KMSP around 05 to 06Z.
Confidence is high that MSP will see rain, but less for thunder.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM CDT Monday for Brown- Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope- Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

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