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FXUS63 KMPX 021940 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 240 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Clearing skies tonight will bring very nice weather for Friday.

- Unsettled weather pattern brings additional rain chances this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

As this morning's showers slowly push to northeast, low stratus and areas of drizzle have remained. Some rain still exists over western WI but will clear our counties within a few hours. Total rainfall has ranged from around 0.1-0.2" in western MN, to 0.5-0.7" in the Twin Cities and our WI counties, to well over an inch across portions of southern and southeastern MN. Another good soaking rain for our region. The rest of today looks gloomy as clouds will have a hard time clearing before sunset. Due to this, have lowered highs by a couple degrees. Rising 500 hPa heights and lessening moisture overnight will help clear skies allowing for a mostly sunny Friday with highs in the 60s. A few 70s are even possible in from southern MN to western WI. In all, it should be perfect day to end the work week. A shortwave will pass through Friday night into Saturday morning, spawning a band of showers along a cold front. PoPs have increased as models continue to converge with best chances of showers expected from southern MN Friday night into Saturday morning. Ensemble guidance favors another 0.25" to even over 0.5" of QPF for this round of precip.
Skies should begin to clear behind the front, leaving for a relatively nice late Saturday afternoon and evening. Highs Saturday are forecast in the lower 60s. Sunday continues to look like the nicest day of the weekend as highs warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s under sunny skies and light winds.

Long-range guidance continues to forecast a strong, amplified trough ejecting east of the Rockies early next week. This would cause strong, southerly warm air and moisture advection into the Plains region. Development of showers and thunderstorms would eventually occur along surface frontal boundaries as the ejecting trough dynamics produce surface cyclogenesis in the High Plains. Latest model trends have also hinted that this trough will be more amplified and dig farther into the Southern Plains, becoming more negatively-tilted before it pivots north-northeast. With this knowledge, it would seem reasonable to expect models to slow down the trough as stronger systems usually take more time to develop.
Monday continues to look warm (highs in the low to mid 70s) but it seems more likely that rain chances should hold off until at least Monday night. Guidance shows a heavier, convective rain along the cold front as the trough swings through the Central Plains, likely making for a very wet Monday night into Tuesday. Any strong thunderstorms in our region will depend on how far north instability can travel.

After Tuesday, forecast model spread begins to increase but the general, loose consensus is that the trough will evolve into a cutoff low and remain somewhere over the northern CONUS through mid- week. Thus, we could be dealing with additional periods of rain and sustained cloud cover through most of the week within the upper- level cyclonic flow. Temperatures also would likely not be as warm as Sunday or Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

While the main rain shield has pushed off to the northeast, still some weak lingering showers mainly north of I-94 with low stratus impacting all sites. The showers will continue to diminish but with the low stratus, areas of drizzle may develop (essentially shearing any lingering precipitation as winds increase a bit this afternoon). Visibility is not expected to take a big hit with any drizzle but some MVFR visibilities are possible. Ceilings will be the main driver of flight conditions through this evening, with fairly quick improvement expected this evening. Conditions are expected to reach VFR late this evening into the early morning hours, with skies clearing out by around daybreak Friday morning. Breezy easterly winds to continue through this afternoon then speeds drop off to 5-8kts this evening while quickly swinging around to westerly this evening through Friday morning.

KMSP...A mixture of drizzle and light rain showers is expected into this evening but visibilities are generally expected to remain in VFR range (possibly some 4-5sm visibilities occasionally through then but few and far between). Low stratus, including IFR-worthy ceilings, will persist through this evening then quick improvement is expected later this evening, resulting in VFR conditions overnight into Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...Mainly VFR. Chance A.M. MVFR/-RA. Wind NW 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance P.M. MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30kts

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already there).

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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