Friday, January19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 5:05PM Friday January 19, 2018 11:03 AM CST (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:13AMMoonset 7:46PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug

Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 191226
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
626 am cst Fri jan 19 2018

Updated for 12z aviation discussion
Issued at 622 am cst Fri jan 19 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 415 am cst Fri jan 19 2018
today will have high clouds with light winds and warm temperatures
well above the seasonal average for mid january. A thermal ridge
will move across the region but it will be difficult to tap into
the warm air aloft with light winds at the surface. A weak cold
front will move in from the northwest later today and tonight, but
that will stall out and become the thermal gradient for the
approaching storm system that will arrive Sunday evening.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 415 am cst Fri jan 19 2018
a strong cyclone will bring heavy snow somewhere across
central southern minnesota and central northern wisconsin. This snow
will come in two parts. The first will be with warm air advection
and low level frontogenesis late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. Then there should be somewhat of a lull with another area
of heavy snow developing along a deformation band driven primarily
by the forcing of the upper level low later Monday morning. Expect
around 2 to 4 inches with that first wave of snow, and then another
3 to 5 inches with the second wave. However, this system appears to
develop a trough of warm air aloft as it occludes, so areas that are
under this trowal could easily pick up 6 to 8 inches with that
second round of snow. It is way to early to say where exactly these
features will develop, but based on the strength of this system and
cips analogs, should see a healthy band 50-70 miles wide of 5 to 8
inches, with a few bullseyes within this band of 12+ inches.

Forecast models have been very consistent with this system. There
has been some bouncing around with the track, but there is overall
agreement of a band of 6+ inches with 12+ potential along and north
of the surface low pressure track. There is plenty of moisture, a
strong jet, and a favorable track for this to come to fruition so
did issue a winter storm watch for part of the forecast area. As for
wind potential, forecast soundings show around 30 to 35 kts atop the
channel, which by itself shouldn't be enough to cause blizzard
conditions. In addition, the surface low is barely deepening off the
19.00z GFS ecmwf, while the gem is a bit stronger with the surface
low, and hence the winds. All in all, this doesn't appear to be a
blizzard event. Certainly some blowing snow and heavy falling snow,
but for some perspective, it doesn't appear to have nearly the
strength of the february 20,21 2014 blizzard which had the surface
low deepening into the 970s.

As for the synoptic meteorology of this system, it all really starts
Saturday night as a northern stream jet rounding the base of an
upper level trough phases with the southern stream which leads to a
rapid increase in wind speed across northern mexico as seen on the
h250 winds off the GFS nam gem ecmwf. By Sunday afternoon at jet
streak of roughly 130 kts has developed, and this increase in wind
speed increases the positive vorticity within the upper level
trough, and therefore the positive vorticity advection downstream.

The end result is a surface low developing over the texas and
oklahoma panhandles. The atmospheric response to this surface low is
it lifts towards the midwest is an increasing northeasterly
component to the low level winds across minnesota and wisconsin,
with southerly winds strengthening across missouri into southern
iowa. By Sunday evening the low level thermal gradient in this wind
field will tighten leading to an southwest northeast area of
frontogenesis, lift, and precipitation from nebraska up towards
southern minnesota.

As mentioned earlier, there will be a warm air advection band that
lifts up from the south early Monday, and then there should be a
break south of this line as a dry slot develops. Both the GFS and
ecmwf show a trowal developing which could easily produce snowfall
rates around 2 inches per hour. Areas that get snow from both of
these features could pick up over 12+, but this will be a relatively
small area compared to the overall snow band. A more general 5 to 8
inches from southwest minnesota into northern wisconsin seems
reasonable at this time.

One challenge with this system is trying to figure out where the
surface low will track, or better yet how the models runs will
change over the next couple of days. The aforementioned strong jet
streak has a fairly large west-to-east component with it, and there
is nothing downstream impeding its progress to the east and
dragging the surface low and heavy snow with it. However, all the
models develop a large area of convection across the southern
plains, so this latent heat release should help to build a ridge
downstream and keep the surface low tracking northeast as opposed to
east. If the models are underdoing this convection, then could see
the surface low and heavy snow track farther west. At this point,
don't see that scenario really playing out. The gem has shifted
southeast with the latest run, as has the ecmwf, and the GEFS probs
of 6+ inches of snowfall is along a line from mankato mn to
ladysmith wi. So at this point think a southeast shift would be more
likely than a northwest shift.

Once this system moves through should see cooler temperatures return
with highs in the lower 20s and lows near 10. Another similar
pattern develops late next week which could bring another storm
across the region but we'll focus on that more after this one has

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 622 am cst Fri jan 19 2018
vfr conditions throughout with light southwesterly winds becoming
more northwesterly this evening. Speeds will only be about 5 to 10


no additional aviation concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
sun...VFR early, ifr or lower with sn or wintry mix likely Sunday
afternoon changing over to snow late Sunday night. Wind NE 5-15

Mon... Ifr or lower most of the day with sn blsn. Wind N 15-25 kts
gusting to 30 kts.

Tue...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind NW at 10-15 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
for wiz014>016-023>025-027.

Mn... Winter storm watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
for mnz060>063-066>070-073>078-082>084-091.

Short term... Jrb
long term... Jrb
aviation... Jrb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi71 minSE 710.00 miFair31°F26°F82%1002.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi71 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast32°F27°F82%1002.1 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi69 minS 510.00 miFair34°F25°F73%1001.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi71 minS 910.00 miFair34°F23°F64%1001.1 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi74 minS 810.00 miOvercast34°F26°F75%1000.7 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi89 minS 910.00 miFair32°F26°F80%1002 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi71 minS 1010.00 miFair33°F25°F72%1001.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi89 minS 710.00 miFair30°F24°F80%1002 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW6W8SW9SW5S6SW3S4S4S5SW6SW4S5S3SW4CalmS3S3S6S5SE6SE5SE5SE5Calm
1 day agoSW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.