Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 9:05PM Monday June 26, 2017 3:50 AM CDT (08:50 UTC) Moonrise 7:30AMMoonset 10:12PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 260842
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
342 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 342 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
today marks the last day with area weather influenced by cyclonic
flow on the periphery of the mid upper trough dominating the eastern
half of the conus, although the effects will be less notable than
they were over the weekend. Skies will be mostly clear to start the
day, with patchy fog burning off quickly. We will see diurnally-
driven cumulus cloud development, primarily over west central
wisconsin. Said area will also be prone to scattered showers and
isolated afternoon thunderstorms, but areas west of i-35 are
expected to be dry. At the surface, high pressure will be sliding
into mn from the dakotas. This will make for much lighter winds than
experienced the last couple of days, with speeds generally around 10
kts or less (with west central wi on the higher end of the range).

Despite more Sun today, temperatures will still be around 10 degrees
below late-june normals. Highs will top out from the mid 60s to
lower 70s. Lows tonight will generally range from 45 to 55 degrees,
which is also below normal by about 5-10 degrees.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 342 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
the primary concern during the latter portion of the forecast is
the system that will impact the area from late Tuesday night
into Wednesday night. Guidance is in fairly decent agreement on
this system in terms of general location and timing, although
there are certainly some differences in frontal positions, the
degree of instability and capping, and shear profiles. By the
latter portion of the week and the weekend, the guidance starts to
exhibit more spread in the large scale pattern, although there is
some basic agreement on a low amplitude west east ridge trough
pattern, with our area seeing some weaker shortwave troughs moving
through on west or northwest flow helping to keep things somewhat
unsettled.

High pressure will be centered over the area on Tuesday before
shifting east Tuesday night as low pressure takes shape over the
northern plains. Convection should develop in the high plains
late Tuesday afternoon then work east Tuesday night, assisted by a
stout low-level jet and feeding on MUCAPE values of 1000-2500
j kg. Some of that instability, and what is left of convection,
should work into the western portion of the area overnight Tuesday
night, and perhaps as far east as i-35 Wednesday morning. The
warm front looks to quickly push through the area Wednesday
morning, with the cold front moving through during the late
afternoon and evening. We could certainly be dealing with cloud
cover issues lingering from earlier convection when the cold front
makes its way across the area, and the new day 2 and day 3
outlooks from SPC do a nice job of highlighting the potential for
some severe weather with both the instability moisture surge late
Tuesday night and the possibility of additional activity with the
cold front Wednesday afternoon evening. The GFS suggests mlcape
values of 1000-2000 j kg across much of the area ahead of the cold
front, although mlcin values would keep much from re-developing
until late afternoon. Deep layer (0-6 km) bulk shear is not
forecast to be overly impressive, generally around 30 kt, but 0-3
km bulk shear is progged around 25 kt, so could certainly see a
wind threat with any storms that develop.

Weak cold advection and drier air look to work in late Wednesday
night and Thursday, with mainly dry weather expected across the
area. The guidance continues to show a weak surface low moving by
to our south on Friday, with an inverted trough extending north
through our area. Pattern would certainly support chance pops at
this point on Friday into Friday night. For the weekend it appears
we'll have a mid-level cold pool (not as significant as the
current one) over the area with a few weak upper waves swinging
through the region. So, will unfortunately need to litter that
time frame with some chance pops as well for what should mainly be
diurnal activity.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1034 pm cdt Sun jun 25 2017
vfr conditions expected through the period. Clouds will dissipate
by 07-08z. A few CU around 6kft may redevelop Monday, greatest
coverage over wi where more isolated-scattered showers may also
pop up.

Kmsp... No additional concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
tue...VFR. Shra tsra late, with MVFR cigs. Winds S 5-10 kts.

Wed...VFR MVFR. Periods of shra tsra early. Winds ssw 10-15 bcmg w.

Thu...VFR MVFR. Winds W 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Ls
long term...

aviation... Borghoff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi57 minN 610.00 miFair51°F45°F80%1020.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi57 minNW 410.00 miFair54°F44°F69%1020.6 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair52°F44°F75%1020.7 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi57 minWNW 510.00 miFair50°F42°F74%1020.4 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi56 minWNW 310.00 miFair50°F44°F82%1020.7 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi58 minNW 310.00 miFair50°F42°F76%1021 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi57 minNW 410.00 miFair54°F45°F72%1020.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi55 minWNW 410.00 miFair48°F46°F94%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW9NW15NW11
G18
NW11NW11NW13NW15NW14
G22
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G24
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NW11NW10W7W5W7N6N4NW4NW4
1 day agoW8W7NW10W11NW10NW18
G22
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G30
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NW9NW8W8W6NW10W6NW8NW8
2 days agoSW5W4W6NW6NW14NW15W15
G20
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G25
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G24
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G19
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NW7NW11W7NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.