Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:37PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 10:59 AM CDT (15:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:35AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 281144
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities/chanhassen mn
644 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 330 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017
there are three concerns for the short term. The first is
additional fog development early this morning, high temperatures
today and the chance of rain late tonight.

A surface ridge stretches north to south along the western spine of
mn early this morning. Widespread dense fog has formed in eastern nd
and is pushing slowly southward into northeast sd. Short term
guidance keeps this just to our west through daybreak and no
headline is expected at this time. Farther east, areas of fog were
common over south central mn on northeast through west central wi.

So far, only isolated spots of dense fog are noted, with one being
at the keau airfield, which is typical in this pattern. There has
been an increase in mid level clouds across west central and
southwest mn, ahead of a mid level trough that stretches west to
east across central mn and wi. In addition there are also some high
level clouds streaming across the southern third of mn. Current
thinking is that any dense fog will likely be confined from near
kael to keau. Will continue to monitor for a dense fog advisory, but
not planning one at this time.

Once the h7 trough moves south of us by mid morning we will be
looking at a good deal of sunshine for the rest of the day. The 925-
850mb column is a degree or two warmer over that on Monday. Hence,
highs should be at or above what we experienced, which got out of
control in the twin cities with lower 60s. Mix-down from 850mb
supports 60-65 from the twin cities on wnw through krwf, kbdh and
kaxn. Readings to the east and south are more in the 55 to 60 degree
range. Guidance used to make the thermal gradient sharper included
an equal blend of bc adjmet, bc GFS and bc consraw.

The surface ridge will move off to the east of the fa early tonight
with increasing SE low level flow. It will be a warmer night with
lows in the upper 30s from the twin cities on wnw with 30-35 to the
north, east and south of kmsp. The third in a series of a strong
upper low in the southern stream will advance into the central and
southern plains overnight. The cams keep the leading edge of the
light rain almost entirely out of our fa until after 12z Wednesday.

Therefore, only slight chance pops reach SW martin county
through 11z.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 330 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017
the longer term concern remains the coverage of light rain
spreading over the southern third of minnesota into west central
wisconsin Wednesday into Thursday.

The deterministic models have pretty much come to a consensus of
drawing moisture into at least the southern third of minnesota
during the day Wednesday... And then moving it east as the northern
and southern stream phase enough to generate enough moisture
transport into the region. The 290k isentropic forecast actually
draws lower level saturation central minnesota and west central
wisconsin Wednesday night and actually drops a couple hundredths
of an inch of liquid in this region. It still remains a question
of how far north and west this will develop... And we did draw pops
a bit farther north into east central minnesota. Temperatures are
forecast to drop off into the mid 30s and thickness and lower
level boundary layer temepratures may get cool enough for at least
a rain/snow mix to the southeast late Wednesday night. Little or
no accumulation is expected however.

Following this system... Drier air returns to the region as the
upper flow pattern remains split. Models still draw a waves in the
northern stream across the region during the Saturday/Saturday
night time frame. There is a wide spread in strength and how much
moisture will be available. We retained the small pop for parts
of the cwa.

Models diverge further into early next week... With an increasing
threat of more widespread precipitation developing into early
next week. There remains a phasing issue with the western conus
trough and its counterpart to the north... So overall timing will
continue to be a problem. Overall... Temperatures should remain
above normal through the period.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 644 am cdt Tue mar 28 2017
the only concern ahead is the br/fg for a few more hours this
morning. The worst conditions are at keau, although they are
starting to rock back and forth between a 1/4 and 1/2sm.

Otherwise, tempo conditions in MVFR br can be expected up to 15z.

Afterwards, it will beVFR for the duration of the period with
any ceilings AOA 120. Light ene winds this morning becoming ese
4-7 knots this afternoon.

Kmsp... Airfield will likely see a period of 4-5sm br between 12z
and 13z. OtherwiseVFR with similar winds/ceiling conditions as
those listed above.

/outlook for kmsp/
wed aftn/ngt...VFR. Chc -ra. Wind ese at 7-10kts. Thu...VFR. Chc
-ra. Wind E at 8-10kts. Fri...VFR. Wind NE 4-8kts.

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Rah
long term... Dwe
aviation... Rah


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi67 minN 05.00 miFair45°F39°F80%1021.5 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi67 minN 09.00 miA Few Clouds47°F37°F69%1021.2 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair46°F37°F73%1021 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi67 minVar 310.00 miFair47°F34°F61%1021.1 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi75 minN 310.00 miClear46°F37°F71%1020.7 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi68 minSSE 310.00 miFair45°F37°F76%1021.3 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi67 minN 010.00 miFair49°F37°F66%1020.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair46°F39°F76%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N545NE7NE8SE6SE53SE4S4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE64NE5N5N5N6N6N6N6N6N6N4N4N4CalmNW3N8N5N6N4N4N6N3N5
2 days agoNE12E11NE14NE13NE14E10NE11E11E8E9E8E8NE8E6E7E6E8E6NE5E65NE6NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.