Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:26PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 2:30 PM CDT (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:44PMMoonset 11:07PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 161715
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1215 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 328 am cdt Tue oct 16 2018
warm air advection has kept temperatures in the upper 30s and mid
40s during the early morning hours. Cloud cover over portions of
central mn and western wi has also helped to moderate
temperatures. The trough extending from ontario will continue
traveling eastward today. Its cold front will progress southward
through the forecast area during the late morning and afternoon.

Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front and cold air
advection will cause a continuation of breezy conditions with
widespread 20-30 kts wind gusts expected through the afternoon.

Temperatures at 850 mb will drop below freezing again by peak
heating, so daytime highs will be limited to the lower 40s in
central mn to lower 50s in southern mn. Surface temperatures Tuesday
night are expected to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Skies
will likely stay mostly cloudy over the northern half of mn and
northwestern wi tonight and gradually clear Wednesday morning as the
upper level trough moves off to the east. The NAM and href hint at
stratocumulus developing over southwestern mn Wednesday morning. If
confidence increases in that possibility, then cloud cover will have
to be increased.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 328 am cdt Tue oct 16 2018
few changes in the extended, with the biggest change being chances
for precip Thursday night into Friday morning looking a bit
better. Otherwise, on the whole, it looks like a breezy period, with
temperatures generally below normal (but not of the 15ish degrees
below normal variety as seen Monday), and skies that will feature
less in the way of cloud cover than we saw for the first couple of
weeks of october.

The warmest day this week continues to be Thursday, when 925-850mb
temps will increase to between 8c and 10c. Friday, despite the
passage of cold front during the morning will be milder again as
the strongest CAA will lag the wind shift a bit. Both days, boosted
blended highs toward the warmer ecmwf, with most of the mn area
expected to see highs in the 60s Thursday, with lower 60s still
looking like a good bet Friday for the twin cities on south. Cold
front coming through Friday morning will be battling dry air, but
models are showing the shortwave coming up from the closed h5 low
currently over the 4-corners Friday morning being a bit stronger
than previously forecast. Forcing with this wave plus surface
dewpoints into the mid 40s should provide enough moisture and lift
to get some light rain going. GEFS qpf plumes are now showing
several members with some light QPF at msp and eau Friday morning,
so it is starting to look better to see some light rain around then
across eastern mn and western wi, though we are only talking of qpf
amounts of 0.1" or less.

We'll have a canadian high cool us down quite a bit for Saturday,
which will likely result in some wind gusts late Friday afternoon
into Friday night pushing 40 mph over our typical windy areas in mn.

However, this high will be moving east quickly, with return flow
back in place Saturday night and WAA back in by Sunday, with highs
near 60 possible again in far western mn.

Next week, we will see yet another dry front pass through on Monday,
with an expansive canadian high dropping down its wake. This high
will slowly move through the great lakes, with it being our source
of low level air through most of the week. So despite h5 heights
building through the week, our low level air getting sourced by this
cool and dry high pressure to the east will keep our temperatures
running slightly below normal.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 1215 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018
no aviation concerns with gusty northwest winds this afternoon,
decreasing some overnight, but becoming gusty again Wednesday
morning, especially in eastern minnesota, and western wisconsin.

MVFR CIGS in northern minnesota could brush central minnesota with
low endVFR CIGS this afternoon early evening. Otherwise, no
concerns.

Kmsp...

no additional concerns.

Outlook for kmsp
thu...VFR with -shra possible late. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

Fri...VFR. Wind SW becoming NW 10-15 kts.

Sat..VFR. Wind NW 10-15g25 kts

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Amk
long term... Mpg
aviation... Jlt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi37 minNW 1710.00 miFair54°F32°F43%1015.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi37 minNW 19 G 2610.00 miA Few Clouds and Breezy56°F33°F42%1016.1 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi35 minW 13 G 1810.00 miFair56°F31°F39%1015.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi37 minWNW 15 G 2610.00 miFair54°F30°F40%1016 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi45 minWNW 14 G 2310.00 miA Few Clouds55°F33°F44%1015.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi55 minWNW 13 G 2110.00 miFair54°F32°F44%1015.6 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi37 minWNW 15 G 2410.00 miFair56°F30°F39%1016.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi55 minNW 16 G 2210.00 miFair57°F33°F41%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6
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SW6SW7SW11SW12
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SW10W8SW9W7SW5W7W6NW13W11
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1 day agoNW6W7NW9NW9NW10NW10NW9W9NW7NW12NW9W7W5W7W14
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W5W10NW12W9W10W13
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2 days agoSW12
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SW9NW8NW10NW9NW8N13
G22
NW9N7N8N9N8N9NW9N8N7N8
G17
N9NW7NW5NW8NW9NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.