Thursday, July19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:54PM Thursday July 19, 2018 1:07 AM CDT (06:07 UTC) Moonrise 12:30PMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug

Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 190403
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
1103 pm cdt Wed jul 18 2018

Updated for 06z aviation discussion
Issued at 1049 pm cdt Wed jul 18 2018

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 354 pm cdt Wed jul 18 2018
a shortwave trough continues traveling eastward over the northern
plains with surface low pressure continuing to develop over western
south dakota. Ahead of this system, moisture advection has brought
mid- to high-level cloud cover. In addition, there has been an
increase in dewpoints, with mid 60s dew points common in western

The biggest change from the last forecast update is the placement of
the surface low. A band of showers and thunderstorms is expected to
lift through southwestern minnesota early Thursday morning with the
surface warm front. This band is expected to travel into eastern
minnesota during the late morning hours. The surface low is still
expected to deepen to about 1001-1002 mb. However, it was previously
expected to travel through south and central minnesota, but now it
is expected to travel from the south dakota southwestern mn border
and travel southeast into north central iowa. This will limit the
severe and heavy rain potential in the northern cwa.

Areas of moderate to heavy rain are expected with the warm front
band, but there is another concern is the development of convection
on the south side of the low Thursday afternoon. Precipitable water
values are expected to be between 1.5 to 2 inches throughout the day
Thursday. In addition, the upper level-jet will be located to the
south, which will limit the speed in which the showers and
thunderstorms travel. mbe velocities drop below 10 kts at times
Thursday afternoon in south central mn. That is the area also of
most concern for severe potential.

If there is clearing after the warm front band in southern mn, we
will have enough instability for thunderstorm development. Models
still range on the amount of CAPE in south central mn, but a few
hundred j kg of MLCAPE is likely. This in combination with the
background vorticity of the surface low and 150 to 200 m2s2 of 0-1 km
effective SRH in south central mn will lead to the potential for low-
top supercells. Lcls will also be very low about ~250 m to 500 m, so
there is the potential for tornadic activity. The limiting factors
will be 0-3 km lapse rates near 5-6 c km and low effective bulk
shear magnitude only near 10-15 kts.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 354 pm cdt Wed jul 18 2018
the main concern in the long term is right out of the gate with the
low pressure system still in the upper midwest tomorrow evening.

Other than that, the long term period will be rather quiet, with two
fronts that look to come through without much activity next week.

By 00z Friday, the surface low will likely be over far south central
minnesota and slowly moving southeast toward iowa. Overall, the
system should be wrapping up by tomorrow evening with mainly
deformation band precip north of the low, but on a downward trend as
the forcing begins to weaken and the low pushes into iowa tomorrow
evening. However, that does not mean isolated heavy rain or a
possible rotating storm could still be ongoing after 00z, but
instead is an indication that the peak of activity is likely in the
afternoon (see short term discussion) with a declining trend in the
evening. The system will continue heading toward northern il by
Friday morning, with lingering wrap around moisture keeping us
cloudy and cooler than normal along with northerly winds, and with
some lingering showers across the area.

The slow moving low will likely keep eastern mn and western wi under
cloud cover for a portion of the day, but western mn should see
clearing skies as high pressure and an upper level
ridge anticyclonic flow begin pushing in from the west. The high
pressure axis will settle in across the area for Sunday, the nicer
of the two days this weekend.

As we head into next week, the first of two fronts looks to arrive
Monday, but looks weak and mostly dry. Still, carrying slight
chance pops for now with the fropa, which will bring slightly lower
dew points in for Tuesday. At the end of the forecast period, a
stronger cold front looks to drop through next Wednesday night,
leading to a cooler than normal end to next week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1049 pm cdt Wed jul 18 2018
vfr conditions will give way to MVFR and -tsra later tonight as a
storm system moves in from the west. There is a chance for thunder
most of the day across the southern sites, but tough to pin-point
a particular window. Could see ifr conditions at times, but at
this point expecting mainly MVFR. Winds will be southeast
throughout the day, becoming northerly overnight.


rain should still hold off until around 12z. There is a chance
for thunder most of the day, but the best chance will be in the
afternoon. Even so, the thunder threat has decreased. Winds will
be southeast with a few gust near 20kts, and cloud bases will be
close to the 1700ft threshold.

Outlook for kmsp
fri... MVFR -shra withVFR possible. Wind nnw at 10g15 kts.

Sat...VFR with MVFR ifr possible early. Wind N at 10g15 kts.

Sun...VFR. Wind NE at 10g15 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Short term... Amk
long term... Spd
aviation... Jrb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi75 minSSE 610.00 miFair70°F60°F71%1014 hPa
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi75 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F60°F64%1013.9 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair70°F61°F74%1014.6 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi75 minSE 610.00 miFair72°F60°F66%1013.4 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi72 minSE 410.00 miFair72°F60°F69%1014.6 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair68°F60°F78%1015.2 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi75 minESE 510.00 miFair72°F60°F66%1013.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair66°F62°F88%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
1 day agoNE10NE4N5N4N6NE745E7N7Calm5NE3NW5E5E6E8E5E7SE6E6E7E6E4
2 days agoNW5NW6NW5W4W4W4SW4NW6W7W7W9W6NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.