Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:47PM Tuesday February 19, 2019 11:17 PM CST (05:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:00PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug

Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 200357
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
957 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019

Update For 06z aviation discussion below

Short term (this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 416 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
the forecast remains on track for a significant winter storm to
impact the local area beginning overnight and lasting through the
day on Wednesday. We expanded the winter storm warning slightly to
the west to include a line from mille lacs lake through sauk center
and madison. 6-10" of snow is expected in the warning area. Farther
west, a winter weather advisory is in effect for the alexandria area
where 3-6" of snow is expected.

The approaching storm is pivoting over the co nm region as of this
afternoon with the upper level closed low anchored north of there.

This system will be on a strengthening trend tonight into tomorrow,
which bodes well for strong forcing associated with it. The upper
trough will begin taking on a negative tilt tonight as the jet
streak to our south intensifies quickly overnight. Forcing with this
system will be deep, with strong theta-e advection and isentropic
ascent expected to move in ahead of the negatively tilting 500mb
trough and PV anomaly. The strengthening jet further aids in deep
forcing as differential divergence increases into southern mn
rapidly after midnight. There is good agreement in the models that
the strong forcing will lift through mainly during the morning
hours, and thermal profiles in the 600-700mb layer point toward
fairly high ratios with forcing maxing out for a period of time
within the dgz. Hence, feel confident in raising snow amounts and
qpf for the morning period. The reason snow amounts aren't even
higher that the system will move through fairly quickly. In terms of
rates, expect 2" hr rates are achievable for a a couple hours during
the morning commute.

In terms of other impacts, winds should be fairly tame, 10-15 mph at
their height as the surface low won't be all that deep. Blowing snow
is not expected to be an impact. Temperatures will warm to the mid
to upper 20s during the afternoon and snow will be on a diminishing
trend, especially after 3pm. The evening commute could still be
slow, but conditions will be rapidly improving by then.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 416 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
the long term pattern is expected to continue to shatter february
snowfall records.

A period of tranquil weather will occur Thursday into early
Friday while the beginnings of the next winter storm will be
taking shape over the southwestern u.S. The main wave won't be
impacting the area until later Saturday. However, there's another
wave expected to ripple northeast in the southwest flow Friday and
Friday night. This round will impact primarily western and
central mn as isentropic lift begins to increase and the snow
focuses along a stationary front from the western high plains up
through northeastern mn. There could be a few inches with this
round before the wave moves off and snow dissipates late Friday
night into early Saturday.

The potent longwave trough over the desert southwest will
eventually kick out across the southern rockies and reach the
central plains Saturday, rapidly becoming negatively tilted as it
does so. This is a great precursor for significant deepening of
the surface low and this one will be no different. The canadian
model exhibits bombogenesis with the system Saturday from a 1004
mb low at 12z Saturday over northern ok, to 974mb near green bay,
wi - a deepening of 30 mb in 24 hours! The ECMWF doesn't quite
meet bombogenesis criteria of 24 mb in 24 hrs, but does deepen the
surface low from 1001 mb to 979 mb.

There are several things to watch with this one. First, the track
is still uncertain and models are continue shifting around with
each run. The good news is they have stopped giving and taking the
system away depending on how they handle the mid level energy.

The envelope with the deterministic guidance has been closing
some as well, although this may not be the case with the ensembles.

Second, these highly negatively-tilted systems tend to migrate
northward as time closes in. Right now the heaviest snow is
progged to fall from eastern nebraska to southeastern mn and
northern wi, but this is obviously subject to change. Third, the
amount of moisture with this system will be quite high and
moisture advection is expected to be impressive given the wind
field. Therefore, we may have to contend with mixed precip or rain
across portions of the area depending how far north the system
tracks. And finally, we should have wind and blowing snow issues
to contend with given the deepening trend of the cyclone. Blizzard
conditions are probable in some sections of the cwa. Between the
system Wednesday and the one this weekend which itself could
bring a foot or more, we may crush the february record by 10 to
15 inches in some areas by early next week.

There are signs of another system impacting the region next week,
but consistency at that range is poor. What is certain is much
below normal temperatures will continue into early march.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 957 pm cst Tue feb 19 2019
snow will overspread the area during the overnight hours, with
widespread ifr lifr conditions expected to develop between 09z and
12z. Snowfall accumulations of 1-2 inches per hour will be
possible. Snow continues on Wednesday afternoon, but improvement
to MVFR is expected. Snow tapers off Wednesday evening.


10z onset of snow still looks good, with rapid deterioration to
lifr (by 12z). The snow will be heavy at times through the
morning, with visibility reductions to 1 4sm the most likely
between 14z and 18z.

Outlook for kmsp
thu... MVFR CIGS possible. Wind wsw 5 kts.

Fri... MVFR cigs. -sn ifr likely late. Wind ese 5-10 kts.

Sat... MVFR cigs. Sn ifr likely late. Wind E 5 kts becoming nw

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter storm warning from 3 am to 9 pm cst Wednesday for wiz014-

Winter storm warning from 6 am Wednesday to midnight cst
Wednesday night for wiz015-016-027.

Mn... Winter storm warning until 6 pm cst Wednesday for mnz049-054>060-

Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 6 pm cst Wednesday for

Winter storm warning from 3 am to 9 pm cst Wednesday for mnz044-

Short term... Spd
long term... Borghoff
aviation... Ls

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi25 minE 710.00 miOvercast15°F7°F70%1026.4 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi25 minE 510.00 miFair14°F5°F67%1026.7 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi23 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy14°F6°F71%1025.1 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi23 minE 610.00 miFair12°F6°F79%1024.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi25 minE 610.00 miFair15°F6°F67%1025.9 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi42 minENE 610.00 mi7°F3°F85%1026.1 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi25 minENE 710.00 miFair14°F6°F71%1025.9 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi42 minE 410.00 mi9°F6°F92%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW4S4S3CalmSE5CalmCalmE4E3E3CalmSE8S9SE5SE6SE5CalmE3E5
1 day agoN7N6N7CalmN63NW5NW4NW4W4NE4W5CalmCalmNW5W6NW4NW6NW4W5W8W5CalmCalm
2 days agoE6E5E3Calm5E9E8NE5NE7E10

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.