Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Falcon Heights, MN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:10PM Thursday January 24, 2019 5:37 AM CST (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:46PMMoonset 10:05AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Falcon Heights, MN
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location: 44.96, -93.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 241135
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
535 am cst Thu jan 24 2019

Updated for 12z aviation discussion
Issued at 529 am cst Thu jan 24 2019

Short term (today through Friday)
issued at 353 am cst Thu jan 24 2019
a powerful cold front with a building area of surface high pressure
behind it was responsible for strong winds, blowing snow, and
blizzard conditions across western minnesota. Winds are a bit
lighter than earlier forecast across southern minnesota, so have
cancelled the blizzard warning and replaced it with a winter weather
advisory since this is more of drifting snow event, and not so much
blowing snow with reduced visibility. Meanwhile eastern minnesota
and western wisconsin had lighter winds but still falling
temperatures from this cold front. To get an idea of the cold air
advection, kmpx measured -4c at 850mb in the 00z raob, and rap
forecast predict that it will measure around -15c in this mornings
12z raob.

This cold air advection will continue to produce strong winds
throughout the morning, but they should gradually taper off during
the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will steadily fall
throughout the day, and overnight lows will bottom out in the teens
below zero. Winds will become very light as well, so that will keep
wind chill values warmer than -35f.

On Friday a weak clipper system will bring a chance for some light
snow along the minnesota river valley. At this point it looks more
like flurries, but did include some slight chance pops for Friday
morning. Temperatures on Friday will warm into the single digits for
most locations.

Long term (Friday night through Wednesday)
issued at 353 am cst Thu jan 24 2019
if you like snow and cold then the long term forecast will make
you smile. The start of the upcoming week starts off with the
potential for a plowable snow as a clipper packing a punch
stronger than normal dips across the area, followed by a surge of
the coldest air we have seen this winter season.

In the meantime, the weekend looks to begin on a quiet note, with
returning southwest flow aiding in a 5-10 degree moderation in
temperatures from Friday to Saturday.

On Sunday we begin to experience the impacts associated with the
aforementioned clipper, although there was a 6 hour difference in
snow onset timing between the 24.00z solutions of the GFS and
ecmwf (with the faster GFS bringing snow to the area as early as
Sunday afternoon). Did lean toward the GFS superblend solution,
but may need to shift the onset time into the evening if the
ecmwf trends look to be holding. The trough deepens over us on
Monday, with snow continuing and winds becoming blustery.

Increased the forecast winds from superblend given the forecast
pressure gradient falls. Blowing snow and visibility reductions
could be a concern again on Monday, particularly for prone areas
of western and southern mn. The progged synoptics of this system
look similar to the archetype for a clipper that bring 6+ inches
of snow to the forecast area, so expect more than just a cosmetic
snowfall we typically receive with a clipper.

On the heels of the system the north central CONUS is invaded by a
surge of arctic air. Surface high temperatures (for all models
combined) are 4-6 standard deviations below normal for Tuesday
and Wednesday, which indicates the potential for an extraordinary
event. Will be tough to break the temperature records, given they
range around -15 to -20 for highs and -30 to -40 for lows, but
sub-zero highs look to be pretty much a slam dunk for Wednesday,
along with lows well into the -20s. As of now, wind chills in the -35
to -50 range are a decent bet area-wide for Wednesday and Thursday.

That all being said, forecast temperatures 6-7 days out often
modify with the airmass (as happened with this current event), so
have leaned conservatively with forecast temperatures at this
point.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 529 am cst Thu jan 24 2019
MVFR ifr conditions with snow and blowing snow this morning. The
snow showers should end by the afternoon and expect mainlyVFR
condition. Gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish as well,
and become light and variable overnight.

Kmsp...

could see some snow showers, stratus, and blowing snow this
morning, but for the most part expect ceilings to remain above
1700 ft.VFR conditions should return this afternoon, and expect
wind gusts to tape off and become variable overnight.

Outlook for kmsp
fri...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.

Sat...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts
sun... MVFR ifr with sn late, lifr possible. Wind ese at 10g20
kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Wind chill advisory from 6 pm this evening to 9 am cst Friday
for wiz014>016-023>028.

Mn... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for mnz065-
067-074>078-082>085-091>093.

Wind chill advisory from noon today to 9 am cst Friday for
mnz045-052-053-060>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093.

Winter weather advisory until noon cst today for mnz041-042-048-
049-057-058-066.

Wind chill advisory until 9 am cst Friday for mnz041>044-047>051-
054>059-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.

Winter weather advisory from 9 am this morning to 3 pm cst this
afternoon for mnz047-054>056-064-073.

Blizzard warning until 9 am cst this morning for mnz047-054>056-
064-073.

Short term... Jrb
long term... Ls
aviation... Jrb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi44 minNW 15 G 242.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist18°F14°F84%1012 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN6 mi44 minNW 11 G 191.25 miLight Snow18°F12°F81%1011.8 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN8 mi42 minNW 11 G 172.50 miLight Snow19°F14°F81%1010.5 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN14 mi42 minWNW 123.00 miLight Snow19°F15°F86%1010.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN14 mi44 minNW 152.50 miLight Snow17°F12°F80%1012 hPa
Lake Elmo Airport, MN16 mi61 minWNW 103.00 miLight Snow19°F17°F93%1009.8 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN18 mi44 minNW 11 G 232.50 miLight Snow17°F10°F77%1012.3 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN23 mi62 minWNW 162.00 miLight Snow19°F17°F93%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from STP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW6CalmCalmW5W4W6W4W9W5SW6SW8SW6SW4S3S5CalmCalmCalmW4NW10NW10
G19
NW11NW11
G19
1 day agoSE6SE8SE7SE6SE4CalmCalmCalmNW6N8N7NW8N6NW4N5NW6NW6NW5NW6NW3CalmNW5NW7NW6
2 days agoSE9SE10SE10SE13
G20
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--SE13SE16
G27
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G18
SE8SE7SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.