Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Champlain, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:32PM Monday May 29, 2017 1:14 PM EDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:20AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1036 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
This afternoon..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers early. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Wednesday night.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Thursday night.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Champlain, NY
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location: 44.97, -73.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 291437
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1037 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Moist low-level air mass across pennsylvania and new york
associated with a mid-level trough will lift northward into our
region later this morning into this afternoon. Widespread
showers will develop first across northern new york during the
mid to late morning hours, and then across vermont late this
morning into this afternoon. A quarter to half inch of rain is
generally expected, with the highest amounts across the northern
adirondacks and st. Lawrence valley of new york. Overcast skies
and showers will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s
today. The showers end by Monday evening. However, another
round of showers and some thunderstorms will move across the
area on Tuesday. A broad upper level low across ontario and
quebec will maintain temperatures near to slightly below
seasonal levels as we head into early june, along with daily
chances for shower activity.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 1037 am edt Monday... Overall forecast in good shape with
just some minor tweaks to the onset of precipitation across the
area.

Previous discussion...

relatively mild early this morning with combination of
increasing mid-level cloudiness and increasing s-se gradient
flow keeping pbl well-mixed. Early am temperatures generally in
the 55-63f range, highest in the champlain and st. Lawrence
valley areas. Have made just minor adjustments with the sunrise
update, mainly to bring in higher pops a bit earlier with
leading edge of rainfall across st. Lawrence county at 1130z.

Rich low-level moisture lurks not far away. Rap-based spc
mesoanalysis shows pw values of 1.4" to 1.5" across central wrn
ny and pa, collocated with sfc-700mb trough extending from sern
ontario across SRN ny pa. As shortwave ridging across NRN new
england moves away this morning, all guidance is consistent in
lifting trough and associated moisture WAA nnewd into the north
country. Should see developing rain showers across NRN ny zones
12-15z, and eventually across vt 15-18z. Axis of precipitation
tied to the trough axis will shift newd thru the region
relatively quickly - by 21z rainfall should end in NRN ny and by
00z should lift out of the northeast kingdom of vt. Overall,
looking for a quarter to half inch of rainfall falling over
3-6hr period, with the highest amts likely across NRN ny.

Temperatures may fall several degrees this afternoon with onset
of rainfall, with aftn readings mostly in the 50s. Gradient flow
does increase in advance of the rainfall this morning, and may
see a few gusts 20-30 mph across NRN ny and the champlain valley
until the onset of steadier rainfall early this aftn.

Relatively quiet conditions expected tonight, with variably
cloudy conditions and redevelopment of south winds 10-15 mph.

This should keep overnight temps from falling very much, with
lows mostly in the mid 50s in the champlain and st. Lawrence
valley areas, and upr 40s to lower 50s elsewhere where some
decoupling is possible (especially east of the green mtns).

Tuesday will feature deep-layer swly flow across the north
country, with an embedded mid-level vort MAX shifting newd from
wrn ny into our region coincident with peak afternoon heating.

Low 50s dewpoints will mitigate overall surface based
instability, with SBCAPE values expected to remain below 1000
j kg. That said, combination of synoptic forcing and sfc-6km
bulk shear of 40-50kts should result in developing aftn convective
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, which may exhibit
some organization. Can't rule out a strong TSTM or two, with
brief heavy downpours and gusty winds lightning, but activity
should generally remain below severe limits owing to modest
instability. Will continue to monitor. Highs on Tuesday mainly
in the upr 60s to lower 70s. May again see some gusty winds for
a time on Tuesday, especially in the st. Lawrence valley with
gusts to 30 mph possible with valley channeled flow.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 351 am edt Monday... Tuesday night should still see some
activity east of lake champlain as an upper level shortwave will
be moving through the north country. There will be some
marginal diurnal heating left over with some modest instability
so there will be a slight chance into the evening for some
rumbles of thunder, however as night falls expect the showers
and any potential of thunder to diminish. None of the storms
are expected to be severe although they could produce some gusty
winds and locally moderate rainfall. There really isn't much of
a thermal gradient with the wind shift as the shortwave swings
through, so temps overnight will only fall to the mid 50s.

There is some potential for some fog development just before day
break on Wednesday as the winds should be fairly light behind
the precip and with dewpoints in the low 50s we could see at few
patches of some light fog. Confidence isn't really there yet
especially with partly to mostly cloudy skies so I haven't
included any mention in the forecast.

As we move into Wednesday afternoon another round of showers
can be expected as another shortwave rounds the bottom of a
persistent upper level low. Latest GFS and NAM continue to show
modest surface instability on order of 500-1000 j kg with some
0-6km shear in the 30-40kts range. Nothing to write home about
but its enough to warrant the mention of chance thunder in the
afternoon and early evening hours on Wednesday. Again none of
these storms are anticipated to become severe but they could
produce some 30+ mph winds with some locally moderate rainfall.

The potential bigger item to note is that the 850mb jet axis
will be oriented from southwest to northeast right up the saint
lawrence valley and with decent mixing we could see 25-30kt
gusts locally in the saint lawrence. Elsewhere there really
isn't much threat in the way of synoptically driven winds.

Temps on Wednesday should warm into the upper 60s to low 70s
with 925mb temps warming to 15c-16c by 21z. Then overnight
there's a slightly stronger thermal gradient as the Wednesday
shortwave swings through. So we should cool Wednesday night into
the upper 40s to low 50s putting us near normal for the first
day of june.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 351 am edt Monday... The extended will be dominated by an
upper level low that is blocked by a strong northern atlantic
low pressure system. So we'll see several rounds of showers as
shortwaves round the parent upper level low to end the weekend.

Showery conditions will be the theme as the combination of
relatively steep mid- level lapse rates and surface heating will
result in shallow instability and shower development.

The trends in the latest guidance point to potentially dry days
on Thursday early Friday as we sit in between upper level
shortwaves and Thursday looks to potentially be dry in- between
shortwave troughs. Temps during the period look to be very
seasonal, with daytime highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, and
overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Through 12z Tuesday... .Vfr conditions with increasing mid-level
cloudiness ceilings from sw-ne early this morning. Will see
increasing chances for showers beginning 12-14z at mss slk, and
across pbg and vt terminals 14-17z associated with rich low-
level moisture and modest warm advection across pa SRN tier of
ny lifting newd into our region. Should see intermittent periods
of MVFR ceilings vsby during the mid- day afternoon hrs at our
taf locations, with hir trrn obscd and occasional moderate
intensity to the rainfall. Some ceilings around 2500ft may
linger east of the green mtns through tonight, including at mpv.

Elsewhere, should see partial clearing and a return toVFR
conditions toward 00z Tuesday. As pressure gradient tightens,
winds will be on the increase from the s-se. Anticipate gusts
20-25kts at btv pbg mpv rut between 12-18z, with less gustiness
once rain begins.

Outlook...

Tuesday:VFR. Breezy. Likely shra... Chance tsra.

Tuesday night:VFR. Chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra... Chance tsra.

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shra... Slight chance tsra.

Thursday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday:VFR. Chance shra.

Marine
Lake wind advisory continues in effect. South winds will be on
the increase reaching the 15-25 knot range toward daybreak
Monday. These winds will create rather choppy conditions and the
strongest winds (around 25kts) are expected during the midday
hours. Should see south winds continuing in the 15-25 knot range
right into Tuesday.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos evenson
short term... Deal
long term... Deal
aviation... Banacos
marine... Evenson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45166 16 mi30 min SW 12 G 14 55°F 52°F2 ft51°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT18 mi80 minS 11 G 1610.00 miLight Drizzle61°F51°F72%1012.9 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY22 mi82 minSSE 1110.00 miLight Rain58°F54°F87%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW5SW6SW7SW5S5S4S5S4SE5E3SE4SE5SE5SE3SE5SE6S5S6S6S10SE14
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1 day agoNW3NW4CalmNW4W3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S4E3SW4SW4
2 days agoN5
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G15
N6N8N4N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N4W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.