Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Champlain, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:22PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:37 PM EST (19:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:22PMMoonset 4:38AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 607 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers through early afternoon, then scattered snow showers late.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Snow showers likely late.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Champlain, NY
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location: 44.97, -73.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 201734
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1234 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Light snow is expected across the north country today. Most of
the area will see less than two inches... But up to 4 inches is
expected across south central and southern vermont. The precipitation
comes to an end tonight and attention will turn to a sharp cold
front that will move across the area on Wednesday. Expect snow
and snow squalls with the front. Sharply reduced visibilities
and bursts of heavy snow will be possible with the snow squalls.

The precipitation comes to an end Wednesday night and very cold
air moves in for thanksgiving with dry conditions... But high
temperatures about 25 degrees below normal for this time of
year.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 606 am est Tuesday... Overall going forecast in good shape
with light to moderate snow over the southern third of vermont.

Elsewhere have noticed fog being reported at most locations and
for this update have included areas of fog to the forecast for
the remainder of the morning. Rest of forecast in good shape and
no other changes needed at this time.

Previous discussion...

band of light snow continues across southern vermont... Essentially
south of a fair haven, vermont to west lebanon, new hampshire.

North of this line little in the way of precipitation is
occurring. Eventually a northern stream shortwave will move east
into the region and we should see some phasing later this
morning of these two features. Most areas will see less than two
inches of snow... But from rutland and windsor counties in
vermont southward up to 4 inches will be possible given the
longer duration of the precipitation across this area. The
morning commute may be impacted in this area. Highs will
generally be in the low to mid 30s.

The snow comes to an end later tonight and there should be a
lull overnight with lows from the mid teens to lower 20s.

Threat for snow squalls will exist on Wednesday as a sharp cold
front moves into the area. Steepening lapse rates... Dry
adiabatic to at least 700 mb... Suggests instability will be
developing ahead of the front. Strong pressure fall rise couplet
associated with shortwave trough moving across the area during
the late morning and afternoon hours will exist and snow squall
parameter values indicate the increase potential for snow
squalls as well. Thinking at this time is snow squalls will
develop over northern new york during the late morning early
afternoon hours and then move into vermont during the early to
mid afternoon hours. Sharply reduced visibilities and bursts of
heavier snow can be expected which will cause travel issues...

especially since it will be a busy travel day ahead of thanksgiving.

Have continued the mention of snow squalls and bursts of heavier
snow in the forecast. Highs will be in the 20s to around 30
with temperatures falling late in the day... Which could result
in any snow covered roads becoming icy.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday
As of 405 am est Tuesday... Wednesday night and Thursday will
feature cold canadian ridge of surface high pressure building
into our area from the north. Chance for any light snow will be
dropping off during the first half of Wednesday night. Most
notable for this timeframe will be the very cold temperatures.

Temperatures will drop sharply Wednesday night behind departing
cold front. Minimum temperatures will dip into the single digits
above and below zero. This is about 20 degrees below seasonal
normals for late november. Then during the day Thursday with
strong cold air advection continuing, will have temperatures
only raising into the single digits above zero to the mid teens,
warmest in the saint lawrence and champlain valleys. It will
also be fairly windy during this timeframe, and we may have to
consider some wind chill headlines if this forecast holds true.

These daytime highs will be about twenty five degrees below
seasonal normals. Although very cold temperatures for thanksgiving
day, we may actually see some peeks of sunshine. Record low
maximum temperatures may be achieved on Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 405 am est Tuesday... Thursday night and Friday will
feature surface and upper level ridging, bringing back dry
weather to the area once again. Thursday night will be another
cold one with temperatures similar to Wednesday night's
readings. Difference will be that the winds drop off with the
building high pressure overhead. See climate section below for
daily climate records for november 22nd and 23rd. High pressure
shifts further east Friday, allowing for the start of some warm
air advection within return southwesterly flow. High temperatures
over the weekend will generally be in the 30s. The next chance
for precipitation comes Saturday night Sunday as troughing
redevelops over the area and an upper-level disturbance moves
through. Details at this point have yet to be ironed out,
however, most likely scenario given the arrival of warmer air
will be a mix of rain and snow. There's yet another rain system
for the late Monday into Tuesday timeframe which may bring even
more rain to the north country.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Through 18z Wednesday... Flight categories are ifr to lifr at
all TAF sites at this time. Light snow, low ceilings, and fog
are expected to continue for the next few hours. Kmss lies near
the back edge of the snow as it heads east with a slot of
lighter snow and higher ceilings positioned along kslk, kpbg,
and kbtv. Flight conditions will gradually improve after 00z as
snow and lower ceilings shift eastward with all sites forecast
to beVFR by 06z Wednesday with ceilings near 5000ft agl and
unrestricted visibilities. Winds currently out of the north at
less than 10kts will become light and variable overnight. By
13z, winds will become south to southwesterly ahead of an
approaching trough. MVFR to ifr ceilings are likely as an arctic
front moves southeast from ontario with winds increasing to 5
to 15kts and the potential for heavy snow showers approaching
kmss and kslk near 15z, though not explicitly mentioned in their
taf at this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday night:VFR. Chance shsn.

Thanksgiving day:VFR. No sig wx.

Thursday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday:VFR. No sig wx.

Friday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Saturday:VFR. Slight chance ra, slight chance sn.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Likely ra,
chance sn.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance ra.

Climate
The record low MAX temperature for burlington for thanksgiving day
is 19 degrees, set on thanksgiving day (november 24th) 1938.

Below are some daily climate records for november 22nd and
23rd.

November 22nd:
record low daily MAX record low daily min
burlington: 22 (2008) 3 (1969)
plattsburgh: 24 (2008) 6 (1972)
montpelier: 18 (2008) 2 (1964)
st. Johnsbury: 22 (2008) 12 (2014)
saranac lake: 10 (1987) -2 (2000)
massena: 22 (1989) 0 (1972)
november 23rd:
record low daily MAX record low daily min
burlington: 20 (1914) 2 (1972)
plattsburgh: 23 (1989) 6 (2000)
montpelier: 21 (2000) -1 (1972)
st. Johnsbury: 22 (2000) 7 (2000)
saranac lake: 18 (2000) -11 (1932)
massena: 18 (2008) 0 (2000)

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Evenson
near term... Evenson
short term... Neiles
long term... Neiles
aviation... Haynes
climate... Rsd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Franklin County State Airport, VT18 mi42 minN 61.75 miLight Snow21°F18°F91%1012.5 hPa
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY22 mi44 minNNE 82.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist24°F21°F88%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from FSO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N3N5N3N3N3N3N3N6NW4N4N4N6
1 day agoCalmCalmE3E4SE3SE4S7S8
G14
S5S5S4S6S5S6S7S5S6S5S4S5S4W4NW3Calm
2 days agoW4CalmW3W4NW5W3W4W4NW4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE3CalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     0.63 meters High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EST     0.63 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 01:56 PM EST     0.65 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:02 PM EST     0.65 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.70.70.70.60.60.60.60.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Tue -- 02:47 AM EST     0.91 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:37 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EST     0.90 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 03:14 PM EST     0.94 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:08 PM EST     0.92 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.